4-28-06 In one of those nip and tuck, is she or isnt she type of closes, the S&P was up modestly again today by 1 to 1311. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +300 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -112 to -62. We dropped a +52 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term for a buy signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +7.4%, using S&P as the basis, or 7.2% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

4-27-06 The S&P was up modestly again today by 4 to 1310.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +10  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually fell from -77 to -112. We dropped a +185 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is now below the lower threshold for a buy signal, which could come as soon as we have an upturn in both the S&P and 5DMA. Despite the upturn in S&P, the 5DMA was down, so no signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-26-06 The S&P was up today by 4 to 1305.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +238  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually fell from -28 to -77. We dropped a +479 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is now below the lower threshold for a buy signal, which could come as soon as we have an upturn in both the S&P and 5DMA. Despite the upturn in S&P, the 5DMA was down, so no signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-25-06 The S&P was down again today by 6 to 1302.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -387  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +346 to -28. We dropped a +1487 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is now below the lower threshold for a buy signal. which could come as soon as we have an upturn in both the S&P and 5DMA. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-24-06 The boring S&P was down today by 3 to 1308.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -471 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +408 to +346. We dropped a -163 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-21-06 The S&P was down today by a fraction to 1311. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph), by a hair's breadth. The S&P was down a few points until the last 10 min, when it was down only a fraction. I thought it might close up and void the sell signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +52 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +419 to +408. We dropped a +105 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 4/13/06. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. We had bought with only 50% of available funds for equities since we had an Intermedaite Down Trend in effect. Now the IDT has become a double top (first top 1311.6 on 4/5/06, second top 1311.5 on 4/20/06), so we label the IDT flag False. This means the Long-Purchase State becomes Clean, so we can buy with 100% of available funds for equities on the next buy signal. The purchase/sale round trip result was a gain of  0.8%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +3.0%. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the SELL. The Double Top is mildly Bearish, but we dont use it directly in our Systems. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of March, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +7.5%, using S&P as the basis, or 7.7% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

4-20-06 The S&P was ahead today by 2 to 1312.  This market just keeps on with these small advances; we'll take 'em.                                      

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +185 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV was unchanged after hours at +419. We dropped a +186 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above the upper threshold of +2.5 in 5DMA required for a sell signal, which will come when both the S&P and 5DMA turn down. We are also above the +400 in 5DMA, where we say the market is overbought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-19-06 The S&P was ahead today by 2 to 1310.                                        

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +479 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +135 to +419. We dropped a -939 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above the upper threshold of +2.5 in 5DMA required for a sell signal, which will come when both the S&P and 5DMA turn down. We are also above the +400 in 5DMA, where we say the market is overbought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-18-06 The S&P screamed ahead today by 22 to 1308.  Our BUY signal of 4/13 is looking good.                                      

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1487 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -189 to +135. We dropped a -132 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above the upper threshold of +2.5 in 5DMA required for a sell signal, which will come when both the S&P and 5DMA turn down. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-17-06 The S&P closed down by 4 to 1285.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -163 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -362 to -189. We dropped a -1031 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-13-06 The S&P closed up by 1 to 1289. Short-term BUY signal (after hours) today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +105 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -386 to -362, a figure that didnt come out until well after the close. We dropped a -14 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We will place orders on the opening Monday (tomorrow is a market holiday) to buy with 50% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of March, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +5.7%, using S&P as the basis, or 6.4% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

4-12-06 The S&P closed up by 2 to 1288.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +261 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -321 to -371. We dropped a +512 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Even though the S&P was up slightly, the 5DMA declined, so there was no buy signal today. The 5DMA is now below the lower threshold of -5 needed for a Short-term BUY signal, which could come any day. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-11-06 The S&P closed down by 10 to 1287. I must say, I feel really good about our Short-term SELL signal on 4/6/06. Long term investors sit tight, BULL market is in full swing.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -939 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -40 to -321. We dropped a +465 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. The 5DMA is now below the lower threshold of -5 needed for a Short-term BUY signal, which could come any day. The Intermediate Up Trend line is broken with today's S&P action, so we are declaring an Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) today, which means the Long-Purchase State goes to Dirty, meaning we buy with only 50% of available funds on first BUY signal, then 25%, 12% etc on the second and subsequent signals. The Market State page has been updated for the IDT change. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-10-06 The S&P closed up by 1 to 1297.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -132 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +52 to -40. We dropped a +327 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-7-06 The S&P closed down hard, by 14 to 1296. I'm glad for that Short-term SELL signal yesterday, which was an ARM& FIRE, Let's hear it again for the ARM&FIRE! I dont believe any other advisor has anything like ARM&FIRE, which we have had in the Short-term System for over 20yr, and it gives a profit almost all the time. Long-term Investors sit tight, BULL market is in full swing.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1031 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +191 to +52. We dropped a -333 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of March, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +6.2%, using S&P as the basis, or 7.0% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

4-6-06 The S&P closed down 3 to 1309. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -14 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +184 to +191. We dropped a -53 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P gives a FIRE, second half of ARM&FIRE SELL signal; the 5DMA ARM signal was yesterday. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQ that we bought on 4/3/06. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The round trip result was a gain of  0.86%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +2.2%. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-5-06 A nice advance, the S&P closed up another 6 to 1312.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +512 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +261 to +184. We dropped a +897 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in 5DMA, while the S&P did not decline, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives an ARM signal, first half of an ARM&FIRE sell signal. Any decline tomorrow in S&P will complete the SELL signal with a FIRE. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-4-06 A nice advance, the S&P closed up 8 to 1306.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +465 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +36 to +261. We dropped a -659 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-3-06 After the booming opening today, the S&P closed up only by 3 to 1298.  BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +327 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -55 to +36. We dropped a -126 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. The System bought, using 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The SELL on Friday was to close the BUY done on 3/29, which buy has now been deleted from the record, since we have deleted the RUN* State which generated it. So today was not a whipsaw (buy immediately following a sell). The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.