April

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +96 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +140 to +44. We dropped a +578 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Thursday and Friday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today.

Long-Term investor's page: The long-expected BULL market arrived last Friday! See column for 4/25/03 below.

Short Sellers Paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Still close to our bogey of 919, at which, if the S&P closes at that plus one point, or 920, we would be forced to buy back our short position for a modest loss. Tomorrow should decide this one way or the other. No changes today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +457 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +277 to +140. We dropped a +1142 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias tomorrow due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today.

Long-Term investor's page: The long-expected BULL market arrived Friday! See column for 4/25/03 below.

Short Sellers Paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Still pushing closer to our bogey of 919, at which, if the S&P closes at that plus one point, or 920, we would be forced to buy back our short position for a modest loss. Tomorrow should decide this one way or the other. No changes today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +928 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +117 to +277. We dropped a +131 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next two days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today. Although the S&P and the 5DMA were both up, this was not a buy signal, since we were not below the lower threshold of -20 (approx) in 5DMA, which would be necessary for a buy signal today.

Long-Term investor's page: The long-expected BULL market arrived Friday! See column for 4/25/03 below.

Short Sellers Paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Got a little bit scary today as we approached the bogey of 919, at which, if the S&P closes at that plus one point, or 920, we would be forced to buy back our short position for a modest loss. Tomorrow should decide this one way or the other. Short selling can be rather nerve-wreaking, so that is why I do not recommend it for the average person. No changes today.

4-25-03 Dear Reader: Today we lead with the Long-Term investor's page: Finally after two and one-half years of waiting, the long-expected BULL market arrives today! With the S&P500 above 880 today, we see the 40 week (200 day) moving average line of the S&P 500 turn up, while the S&P is above the line. This is the definition of a new BULL market. See our Long-Term page, especially Table 3 and the discussion for that table for the development. We have added a new PR#2, covering the BULL market announcement, to our page: Press Releases. PR #1 was 1/2/03 and announced the expectation of a new BULL market in 2003. Since we are in a short-term (about a week) downtrend, a long-term buyer could even wait a few days to BUY on the next short-term BUY signal (watch this space). The Market State page has been updated for today's changes.

Today the S&P500 closed down 13 to 899. Since the S&P500 is above 880, this does not affect the BULL declaration.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -710 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +449 to +117. We dropped a +948 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next three days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today. The change to BULL market puts the Long-Purchase State to Clean (see Glossary>Long-Purchase and Market State for more info), allowing us to increase our investment from 50% to 100% of available funds (if we like) on a BUY signal. That should almost double the rate of return in the future.

Short Sellers Paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Short sale of 4/24/03 looking good. No changes today.

4-24-03 Dear Reader: The S&P 500 fell by 8 to 911. Short-term system SELL signal today (see below). BULL market comes closer (see below).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -554 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell, with late updates, long after the market closed, from +452 to +449. We dropped a -537 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next four days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. Today's late SELL signal gave us no opportunity to SELL on the close. So our SELL orders will be placed on the opening tomorrow. Don't confuse a short-term SELL signal with a Long-Term BUY signal, which I assume will come tomorrow. A long-term buyer could even wait a few days after the BULL signal to BUY on the next short-term BUY signal (watch this space). The Market State and Results_History pages have been updated. The trade resulted in a gain of 2.3%, based on available funds for investment, bringing our total gain for the year to 6%, compared to a 3.6% gain for the S&P500 for the year. A change to BULL market will put the Long-Purchase State to Clean (see Glossary>Long-Purchase and Market State for more info), allowing us to invest 100% of available funds on a BUY signal. That should almost double the rate of return in the future.

Long-Term investor's page: See our Long-Term page to view the weekly progress of the 200 DMA, especially Table 3 and the discussion for that table, since we are expecting to announce a new BULL market this Friday. If we don't get the Daily out on time Friday, just know that if the S&P 500 closes above 880, the new BULL market will be declared! We have added a new page: Press Releases. PR #1 was 1/2/03 and announced the expectation of a new BULL market in 2003. PR#2 is expected to be added Friday.

Short Sellers Paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Today's SELL signal, with the S&P500 down by at least four points, with the Short State as Clean, allows us to sell short on the opening tomorrow. With a BULL market declaration almost certain for Friday, one may wonder if this would be foolhardy. There are Field System BULL market states that don't "allow" selling short, but as the BULL market starts, we will be in Oscillatory state, so selling short is OK. The trade would be for only a few days, and we will close the trade if the bogey at 919.0 (yesterday's close) plus one point is violated on the close in the future. Nonetheless, we have to at least notionally sell short (on paper only), in order to keep track whether the bogey is violated, because if it is, then the Short State changes to Dirty and the State changes from Oscillatory to Run-5.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +578 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +433 to +452; we are in the over-bought range. We dropped a +486 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The BUY signal from 4/10/03 is really looking good. No signals today. We could get a SELL signal any day, since we are above the upper threshold of +20 (approx) in 5DMA. A downturn in S&P500 with a simultaneous decline in 5DMA will do it.

Dear Reader: A booming day; the S&P 500 rose by 19 to 911. BULL market comes closer (see below).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1139 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +365 to +433; we are in the over-bought range. We dropped a +796 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The BUY signal from 4/10/03 is really looking good; this is the way to make money...be in the market when it is going up, and be out when it is going down! No signals today. We could get a SELL signal any day, since we are above the upper threshold of +20 (approx) in 5DMA. A downturn in S&P500 with a simultaneous decline in 5DMA will do it.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +131 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +335 to +365; we dropped a -19 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday and Wednesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The BUY signal from 4/10/03 is still looking good. No signals today. We could get a SELL signal any day, since we are above the upper threshold of +20 (approx) in 5DMA. A downturn in S&P500 with a simultaneous decline in 5DMA will do it.

Dear Reader: A nice rally; the S&P 500 rose by 14 to 894. The market is closed tomorrow.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +948(million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +195 to +335; we dropped a +251 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a slight positive bias Monday due to dropping a small negative number from the average from six days prior. The BUY signal from 4/10/03 is still looking good. No signals today. We could get a SELL signal any day, since we are above the upper threshold of +20 (approx) in 5DMA. A downturn in S&P500 with a simultaneous decline in 5DMA will do it.

Long-Term investor's page: We are preparing a nationwide press release to announce the start of the new BULL market. Let's see how many news services pick it up. I am expecting that next Friday, 4/25/03, the calculations will show the 40 week (200 day) moving average (200DMA) line of the S&P 500 will turn up for the first time in 2 1/2 years and the S&P will be above that 200 day line; this is the definition of the start of a BULL market. Actually if you use the 39 week average (as some do), then today would be the announcement of that BULL; let's see if any of those who use the 39 week average make an announcement! See our Long-Term page to view the weekly progress of the 200 DMA, especially Table 3 and the discussion for that table.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -537 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually rose from +187 to +195; we dropped a -577 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The BUY signal from 4/10/03 is still looking good. No signals today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +487 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +21 to +187; we dropped a -346 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The BUY signal from 4/10/03 is looking very good. No signals today. We could get a SELL signal any day, since we are above the upper threshold of +20 (approx) in 5DMA. A downturn in S&P500 with a simultaneous decline in 5DMA will do it.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +796 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -60 to +21; we dropped a +391 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday and Wednesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The BUY signal from 4/10/03 is looking very good. No signals today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -19 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -39 to -60; we dropped a +85 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors Page: We have added a Table to track the weekly approach of the BULL market signal. Table 3 on the Long-Term Page shows that if the S&P500 is above about 880 on 4/25/03, then a new BULL market can be declared. This is based on the DEFINITION of a BULL market, that when the 200 day (40 week) moving average (200DMA) of the S&P500 stops going down, and turns up, and the S&P500 is above the 200DMA line, then a new BULL market has begun.

Dear Reader: The S&P 500 closed up 6 to 872, giving us a BUY signal (more below).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +251 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -148 to -39; we dropped a -295 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday-Monday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in the S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA is below the lower threshold of -20 (approx), gives us a BUY signal. Since we are Long Purchase Dirty (see Glossary and Market State pages), we BUY with only 50% of available funds. We have updated the Market State page for the BUY signal.

Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): We closed out the short position with a modest profit.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -577 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +200 to -148; we dropped a +1164 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We are in BUY range; an up day in S&P500 could give us a BUY signal. No signals today.

Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): No change today.

Dear Reader: The market opened up with another gap on news, and spent the rest of the day drifting back into negative territory. The S&P 500 finally closed down 2 to 878.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -346 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +389 to +200; we dropped a +602 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): No change today.

Dear Reader: The market opened with a huge gap on news, going quickly to the high for the day, and spent the rest of the day drifting back to the unchanged line. The S&P 500 finally closed up 1 to 880.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +391 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +153 to +389; we dropped a -789 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): We thought all day long we were going to have to cover the shorts of 4/3 for a loss. But the bogey of 880.9 of 4/2/03 was not exceeded by the required one point on the close. No change today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +85 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +110 to +153; we dropped a -132 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias on Monday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Short sales from yesterday looking OK. We are watching the minor high of 880.9 on 4/2/03; that is our bogey for the short sale. If the S&P closes one point above that value, we must close out the short at a loss. We have a gap at 859 that needs to be filled, so the market should go back down to that level.

Dear Reader: The market took a rest after yesterday's fireworks. The S&P 500 closed down 4 to 876. SELL signal today (see below).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -295 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +155 to +110; we dropped a -70 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias the next two days due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above +20 (approx), gives us a SELL signal. This BUY-SELL sequence gave us a 1% gain, based on funds available for investment. That brings our gain for the year to +3.8%, compared to S&P -0.4% loss. The Market State and Results_History pages have been updated.

Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Since we are still Short State Clean, and the S&P closed down by at least four points, we can sell short today on this signal. As I mentioned yesterday, we have a gap at 859 that needs to be filled, so the market should go back down to that level (hopefully now).

Long-term Investors Paragraph. I should have covered this at month's end, but will bring you up to date and also add this paragraph to 4/1 column. The weekly data show that if the S&P 500 is above about 880 on 4/25/03, then a new BULL market can be declared. We were at 880 yesterday. This is based on observing the Friday close for the last 40 weeks and calculating the 40 week moving average of the S&P500. When that average stops going down, as it has for several years now, and turns up, while at the same time the S&P is above that 40 week line, then that is the definition of a new BULL market. Our Long-term Investors page has been updated.

Dear Reader: With a boomed rally, the S&P 500 rose 22 to 881. The market gaped up at the open, indicating a large probability the market will come back down in a few days to fill that gap. I see a delicious short-sale coming.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1164 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -157 to +155; we dropped a -393 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias the next three days due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Dear Reader: The S&P 500 rose 10 to 859. BUY signal today (see below). The minor low from yesterday, 848.2 (this is called the "bogey"), will be watched for the near future to see if it holds or if further market declines are in store.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +602 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually fell from -101 to -157; we dropped a +879 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias the next four days due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. Today was an FIRE signal (please see Glossary>Arm-and-Fire), since the S&P500 turned up today after yesterday's upturn in the 5DMA. This is a BUY signal, even though the 5DMA fell today. I hope this will show the value of the Arm-and-Fire pattern, meaning that this sequence will be profitable, even though the upturns in the S&P and 5DMA were not simultaneous.

Long-term Investors Paragraph. Month-end update. The weekly data show that if the S&P 500 is above about 880 on 4/25/03, then a new BULL market can be declared. This is based on observing the Friday close for the last 40 weeks and calculating the 40 week moving average of the S&P500. When that average stops going down, as it has for several years now, and turns up, while at the same time the S&P is above that 40 week line, then that is the definition of a new BULL market. Our Long-term Investors page has been updated.

Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Shorts were covered today for a profit of 1.8%. Short results are not included in our main Results_History since most readers will (wisely) not be interested in the risks associated with short selling.

DISCLAIMER: Past results are no guarantee of future results. StockMarketScience is for information and opinion only, and should not be considered stock or market advice. The user is totally responsible for any actions taken as a result of reading this publication, and StockMarketScience assumes NO liability for any losses suffered by anyone based on anything written here.

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APRIL 2003 COLUMNS