8-29-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 5 to 1008.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +435 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +55 to +269. We dropped a -634 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). We do update Table 2 monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. For the next week, the S&P500 needs to stay above 937, which should not be much of a problem, to stay in the clear. After next week, barring a major decline, we should have several months (about 23 weeks) of clear sailing (maybe we should cross our fingers, just in case). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since 4/25/03 is +12.15%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-28-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 6 to 1003.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +545 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +44 to +55. We dropped a +489 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday and Tueday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior.  No signals today.

8-27-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up less than a tenth of a point to 997.  By the slimmest of margins we got a BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +271 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -5 to +44. We dropped a +25 from the average from six days ago, giving us a slight negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias tomorrow due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives us a Short-term BUY signal. The Market State page has been updated. As I mentioned yesterday, I will be out of the country Thurs-Friday, and so will not write the column on time. It is unlikely we will get a SELL signal Thursday or Friday, but if we do, I will not be able to communicate a SELL signal to you, so you may want to sit out this BUY signal. Since we are Long-purchase Clean, we bought with 100% of available funds, one-third each in SPY, QQQ, and IWM (please see ETF page  (exchange-traded funds) for info on these funds). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-26-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 3 to 997.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +315 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +30 to -5. We dropped a +491 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next two days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We are in the BUYing range on the 5DMA, which is -5 for the Run-5 Market State we are in (see Market State). If we get a BUY signal tomorrow I will announce it; however, I will be out of the country Thurs-Friday, and so will not write the column on time. It is unlikely we will get a SELL signal Thursday or Friday, if we get a BUY signal Wed, but nonetheless, if we do, I will not be able to communicate a SELL signal to you. So the cautious approach would be to ignore such a BUY signal. No signals today.

8-25-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up less than a point to 994.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -221 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +189 to +30. We dropped a +574 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next three days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

8-22-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 10 to 993.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -634 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +325 to +189. We dropped a +47 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next four days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We get a sterile Short-term SELL signal today because the S&P and the 5DMA turned down simultaneously, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5; sterile because we do not have any positions on. We have been watching to see if we will get a RunLight BUY signal. So far the rules have kept us from buying, and with the market down today, it looks like it would have been a mistake to buy within the last few days. We do have a new bogey (recent minor high) of 1003.3 from yesterday. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). For the next two weeks, the S&P500 needs to stay above 937 to stay in the clear. If we get a major decline, we will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since 4/25/03 is +10.49%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-21-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 3 to 1003.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +489 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +305 to +325. We dropped a +387 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next four days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today. We were a fraction of S&P point away from a RunLight BUY signal today. The S&P would have had to close at 1003.8, and it closed at 1003.3. It was nip and tuck the last hour. In Glossary>Run, RunLight,etc>item a,  we see that the previous bogey (recent minor high of 1002.3 on 8/19/03) must be exceeded by 1.5 S&P points to get the RunLight signal. The datum of 1.5 points was set by a small number of occurrances and thus may be subject to change, since we want to have a rule that includes as many profitable signals as possible and excludes as many unprofitable signals. Science in the making.

8-20-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 2 to 1000.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +25 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +270 to +305. We dropped a -149 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next four days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

8-19-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 3 to 1002.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +491 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +291 to +270. We dropped a +594 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Perhaps you were wondering if yesterday's bogey violation indicated a RunLight BUY signal. The answer is given in Glossary>Run, RunLight,etc>item c, where we see that if the Market State changes to Run-5 on the same day when we get a RunLight signal, we ignore the RunLight. Since the State changed from Oscillatory to Run-5 yesterday, we ignore the RunLight signal.

8-18-03 Dear Reader: A nice advance, the S&P500 closed up 9 to 1000. The Market State changes from Oscillatory to Run-5 (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +574 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +232 to +291. We dropped a +282 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No BUY/SELL signals today, but the violation of the bogey (recent minor high) of 990.4 from 8/12 kicks the Market State up to Run-5 from Oscillatory. This changes the thresholds at which we get BUY and SELL signals. The Market State page has been updated. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

Short-Sellers Paragraph. The S&P 500 exceeded 990.4 by more than one point, busting the bogey and meaning we must buy back our notional (on paper only) short sale at a loss. The Short State was already Dirty, so it does not change.

8-15-03 Dear Reader: A dull day amidst the NYC power crisis, the S&P500 closed up less than a point to 991.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +47 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +288 to +232. We dropped a +325 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). For the next three weeks, the S&P500 needs to stay above 937 to stay in the clear. If we get a major decline, we will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since 4/25/03 is +10.22%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-Sellers Paragraph. No change in Market State (see yesterday's column). The S&P 500 again came close to exceeding 991.4, but did not do so. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-14-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 6 to 990.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +387 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +276 to +288. We dropped a +330 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next three days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Short-Sellers Paragraph. No change in Market State (see yesterday's column). The S&P 500 came close to exceeding 991.4, but did not do so. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

8-13-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 6 to 984. SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -149 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +341 to +276. We dropped a +176 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next four days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA is above the upper threshold of +19 (we are in Oscillatory state), gives us a Short-term SELL signal. This round trip gained about 1.76%, bringing the gain for the year to 11.9%. The Market State page and Results_History page have been updated for today's action. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-Sellers Paragraph. We can not do an actual short sale here because the Short State is Dirty, but we have to do a notional (on paper only) short sale to keep track of the Market State Flag. The bogey for this sale is the recent minor high on Tuesday of 990.4. If the S&P closes above 991.4 (bogey plus 1), we will say the bogey is violated and the Market State becomes Run-5. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

8-12-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 10 to 990.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +594 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +47 to +341. We dropped a -875 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next five days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today. We are in the sell range for the 5DMA. A decline in S&P500 could give us a sell signal.

8-11-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up modestly by 3 to 981.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +282 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -25 to +47. We dropped a -79 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today. We are in the sell range for the 5DMA. A decline in S&P500 could give us a sell signal soon.

8-8-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up modestly by 4 to 978.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +325 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -214 to -25. We dropped a -623 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). For the next four weeks, the S&P500 needs to stay above 937 to stay in the clear. If we get a major decline, we will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since 4/25/03 is +8.77%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-7-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 7 to 974.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +330 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -222 to -214. We dropped a +292 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday-Tuesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

8-6-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 2 to 967. BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +176 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -309 to -222. We dropped a -262 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives us a Short-term BUY signal. Since we are Long-Purchase Clean, we may BUY with 100% of our equity allocation. We bought 1/3 each of SPY, QQ, and IWM (Russell 2000 small cap index). This was an especially delicious BUY signal since it came after a big decline yesterday (which we avoided), and the S&P closed up by a very small amount, putting us very close to the minor bottom of yesterday. The Market State page has been updated. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-5-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down hard by 17 to 965. If you are a Long-Term investor, you are not in any danger yet with declines like this (watch this space at least every Friday for Long-Term update). If you are Short-term oriented, you should be glad for the SELL signal we got on Friday. It is so important not to ignore a SELL signal if you are Short-term oriented. A BUY signal should be just around the corner, and we are pleased the System has kept us from taking gas for this decline.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -872 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -236 to -309. We dropped a -508 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

8-4-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 3 to 983.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -79 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -215 to -236. We dropped a +25 from the average from six days ago, giving us a slight negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

8-1-03 Dear Reader: Well it was technically not a whipsaw, but it sure feels like one. The S&P500 closed down 10 to 980. After yesterday's Short-term BUY signal, today we get a SELL signal (see next paragraph). Thankfully this does not happen very often.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -623 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +53 to -215. We dropped a +717 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA is above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a Short-term SELL signal. Since the bogey of 987.7 of 7/30/03 was violated today, the Market State falls from Run-5 to Oscillatory. This round trip lost about 1%, shaving the gain for the year to 10.2%. The Market State page and Results_History page have been updated for today's action. A whipsaw under System terminology will occur if we get a BUY signal on Monday, in which case we will ignore that signal under the whipsaw rule. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). For the next five weeks, the S&P500 needs to stay above 937 to stay in the clear. If we get a major decline, we will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since 4/25/03 is +9.06%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-Sellers Paragraph. We can not do an actual short sale here because the Short State is Dirty, but we have to do a notional (on paper only) short sale to keep track of the Market State Flag. The bogey for this sale is the recent minor high on Thursday of 990.3. If the S&P closes above 991.3 (bogey plus 1), we say the bogey is violated and the Market State becomes Run-5. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.