8-31-05 Dear Readers:  Today the S&P closed up 12 to 1220.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1158 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -130 to +176. We dropped a -370 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a BUY signal, the fourth one in a row. We are scaling-in buys because the Long Purchase State is Dirty. The System bought with 6% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. We have updated the Market State page for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-30-05 Dear Readers:  Today the S&P closed down 4 to 1208.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -296 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -127 to -130. We dropped a -284 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-29-05 Dear Readers:  Today the S&P closed up 7 to 1212.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +443 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -170 to -127. We dropped a -229 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a BUY signal, the third one in a row. We are scaling-in buys because the Long Purchase State is Dirty. The System bought with 12% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. We have updated the Market State page for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-26-05 Dear Readers:  Today the S&P closed down 7 to 1205. This violates the recent low (bogey) of 1209.6 set on 8/24/05, but we are already in the lowest State for a BULL market (OSCILLatory), and we do not sell stocks on a bogey violation, so we take no action because of this.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -696 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -22 to -170. We dropped a +47 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA gives no signals because we are not above the upper threshold of +19 in 5DMA needed for a sell signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate-term investors paragraph: If you like to trade no more frequently than every couple months or so, then you are an Intermediate term investor (ITI). This is as opposed to short-term investors who can trade every few days or weeks without difficulty, and Long-term Investors who dont want to trade more than every year or so. ITI's should be in all cash equivalents (money market or short term treasury bills).

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +3.3% using S&P only as the basis, or +3.7% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1183 (bear bogey) for one more week to avoid a BEAR market signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-25-05 Dear Readers:  Today the S&P closed up 3 to 1212.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +270 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -155 to -22. We dropped a -397 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -29, gives a BUY signal, the second one in a row. We are scaling in buys because the Long Purchase State is Dirty. The System bought with 25% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. We have updated the Market State page for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-24-05 Dear Readers:  Today the S&P closed down 8 to 1210.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -370 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -103 to -155. We dropped a -108 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Yesterday's ARM signal expires since the S&P did not turn up today. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-23-05 Dear Readers:  Today the S&P closed down 4 to 1218.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -284 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -232 to -103. We dropped a -930 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -29, but with the S&P declining, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE buy signal). Any upturn tomorrow in S&P will complete the BUY signal with a FIRE. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-22-05 Dear Readers: I will be out of the country for a week starting tomorrow. Dailies will resume after that. Today the S&P closed up 2 to 1222. If you have figured out how to calculate the 5DMA, then you can issue your own SELL signal, which should occur when the 5DMA rises above the upper threshold of +19 and then both the S&P and 5DMA turn down, either simultaneously or by the ARM & FIRE rule. If not, then watch the S&P rising, then sell on next down close in S&P. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +229 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -229 to -232. We dropped a +243 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-19-05 Dear Readers: In an unexciting day and week, the S&P closed up 1 to 1220. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). Intermediate-term investors, do nothing, you should be in all cash equivalents. We are introducing an Intermediate-term Investors paragraph today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +47 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -334 to -229. We dropped a -478 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal.  We bought with 50% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. The reason for the 50% figure is that we are in IDT and this was the first buy signal; we scale-in purchases in an IDT.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate-term investors paragraph: If you like to trade no more frequently than every couple months or so, then you are an Intermediate term investor (ITI). This is as opposed to short-term investors who can trade every few days or weeks without difficulty, and Long-term Investors who dont want to trade more than every year or so. ITI's should do nothing on today's signal since the Intermediate Term Downtrend (IDT) flag is true (we ARE in an IDT), as shown on Market State page. You should be in all cash equivalents (money market or short term treasury bills).

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +4.6% using S&P only as the basis, or +4.7% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1185 (bear bogey) for two weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-18-05 Dear Readers: After meandering around all day, the S&P closed down 1 to 1219.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -397 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -113 to -334. We dropped a +707 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We will get a BUY signal when both 5DMA and S&P turn down. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-17-05 Dear Readers: The S&P rebounded up 1 to 1220.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -108 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -68 to -113. We dropped a +116 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-16-05 Dear Readers: A bad day at black rock. The S&P closed down 15 to 1219.  Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -930 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +225 to -68. We dropped a +536 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM that we bought 8/9/05. The loss on the round trip was 1%, bringing our result for the year to -1.3%. The bogey of 1223.1 set on 8/8/05 was violated, thus dropping the Market State to OSCILLatory. Also we observe now an intermediate downtrend consisting of declining tops and declining bottoms. The declining tops: 1245 on 8/3, 1237.8 on 8/11; the declining bottoms: 1223.1 on 8/8, 1219.3 on 8/16 (or any day after today that is lower). This changes the Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) Flag to True on the Market State page and our buys will now be scaled in, buying with only 50% of available funds for equities on first buy signal, 25% the second, etc. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL, the State change and the IDT. The Results_History 04- has been updated for the buy and sell. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-15-05 Dear Readers: The S&P overcame a down opening to close up 3 to 1234.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +243 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +134 to +225. We dropped a -211 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-12-05 Dear Readers: The S&P recovered about half of its early losses and closed down 7 to 1230.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -478 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +58 to +134. We dropped a -855 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P, while the 5DMA failed to turn down, does not give a sell signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +5.5% using S&P only as the basis, or +5.6% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1185 (bear bogey) for three weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-11-05 Dear Readers: In the last hour the S&P made a very nice advance and closed up 9 to 1238.  Today was a BUY signal (see next paragraph), so our concern about the false signal after hours on Tuesday is relieved (see yesterday and Tuesday's columns).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +707 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -214 to +58. We dropped a -654 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The rise in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal, but it is sterile since we already bought with 100% of available funds for equities on 8/9/05. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-10-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed down 2 to 1229.  This is only the 2nd time we've seen this: a BUY signal at market close yesterday was negated by the after-hours change in the volume up and down statistics from Nightly Business Report. Then it looked like today was going to be up, so the change in yesterday's signal would be immaterial. Now we have the conundrum, sell out today (we didnt get  a sell signal) or just sit tight until the next buy signal. Personally I am holding on and not selling out, and that will be the System rule, until market action proves we should choose otherwise.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +116 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -237 to -214. We dropped a -26 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The rise in 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, while the S&P fell, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE buy signal). Any up close in S&P tomorrow will complete a BUY signal and justify our doing nothing today to reverse yesterday's after hours change. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-9-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed up 8 to 1231.  Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +536 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -237 to -242  [after hours. This negates the BUY signal following:]. We dropped a +561 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-8-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed down 3 to 1223.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -211 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -148 to -237. We dropped a +235 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-5-05 Dear Readers:  Another dunking in the tank for the market. The S&P closed down 9 to 1226. We are only about 40 S&P points above a BEAR market signal (in two weeks, see Long-term paragraph below).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -855 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -74 to -148. We dropped a -489 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +5.2% using S&P only as the basis, or +6.0% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1185 (bear bogey) for four weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-4-05 Dear Readers:  The S&P closed down 9 to 1236. The 1245 barrier was at fault again. We get a sterile SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -654 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +200 to -74. We dropped a +719 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal, but it is sterile, since we have no positions on.  We are now below the lower threshold of -5 for a BUY signal which could come as soon as we get an upturn in S&P and 5DMA. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-3-05 Dear Readers:  The S&P closed up by 1 to 1245.0.  We are still flirting with the previous minor high of 1243.7, set on 7/28/05. If we exceed that by 1.5 S&P points (to 1245.2) we will have another RunLite buy signal, however we know to ignore it because the RunLite Flag is Dirty (see Market State page). We will do a virtual buy (on paper only); this will be an opportunity for the Flag to change to Clean (if the virtual purchase and sale are profitable). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -26 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +269 to +200. We dropped a +318 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, but with the S&P not turning down, gives an ARM signal, first half of an ARM & FIRE SELL signal, but which will be sterile anyway, since we have no positions on.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-2-05 Dear Readers:  The S&P closed up by 9 to 1244.1.  We are once again flirting with the previous minor high of 1243.7, set on 7/28/05. If we exceed that by 1.5 S&P points we will have another RunLite buy signal, however we know to ignore it because the RunLite Flag is Dirty (see Market State page). We will do a virtual buy (on paper only); this will be an opportunity for the Flag to change to Clean (if the virtual purchase and sale are profitable). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +561 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +203 to +269. We dropped a +232 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-1-05 Dear Readers:  The S&P closed up by 1 to 1235.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +235 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +67 to +203. We dropped a -446 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; the upturn in 5DMA and S&P did not occur while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5 for a buy signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.