12-31-03 Dear Reader: The market closed the year on a whimper. The S&P500 closed up 2 to 1112. Happy New Year!

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +87 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV actually fell from +261 to +221. We dropped a +283 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The ARM signal from yesterday expired since we had an up day in S&P. No signals today.  Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

End of Year Update: We closed out the year with a net gain of  24.74% for the Short-Term System. The S&P 500 was up 26.38% for the year. The reason for the shortfall is primarily the February 2003 time frame in the Bear market when our trades were closed out with losses.  We have updated the 10-year Summary_Table for 2003.  The 10-year average by which we BEAT the S&P fell from 7.7% to 6.8%, but our average gain for the 10 years presented increased from 17% to 17.8%. If anyone bought the S&P on Jan 1 of each year and held to Dec 31, (s)he would have beat the Short-term System by 1.6% this year but would have been behind by 7.7% per year on the average over the previous nine years.

 The Long-Term System trades are still open because the BULL market continues. Our gain to date since the 4/25/03 BULL market declaration (see Press_Releases) is 23.7% based on S&P alone or 31.7% based on a portfolio of 50% SPY and 50% QQQ (which is what we have). Please see our ETF page for these symbols or Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-30-03 Dear Reader: A dull day following the big rally, the S&P500 closed up less than a point to 1110. Almost got a sterile SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +100 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV actually fell from +324 to +261. We dropped a +419 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The decline in the 5DMA while the S&P was up gives us a sterile ARM signal (first half of an ARM & FIRE); sterile because we have no positions on to sell. If we get any decline in S&P tomorrow, we will have the second half of the signal for a FIRE and a SELL, but still sterile.  Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-29-03 Dear Reader: A boomer rally, the S&P500 closed up 14 to 1110.  We have no positions on. We just have to say that we do not capture 100% of all market gains with our rule set, and we do not avoid all (minor) market declines. Nonetheless, if one observes our 10 year record in the Short-term System (Results_Hist_99_03 and Results_Hist_94_98), summarized in Summary_Table, we can be satisfied that we do not need a perfect system to be able to beat the S&P by 8% on the average over a 10 year period (for an average 17.6% return per year).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +843 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +164 to +324. We dropped a +41 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative/neutral bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. Today was the third occurrence in a row of a RunLite BUY signal because the bogey of 1096 set 12/23 was exceeded. By our rules (see Glossary>Run...), we ignore every RunLite signal after the first. No signals today.

12-26-03 Dear Reader: In a slow and short trading day, the S&P500 closed up 2 to 1096.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +132 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +361 to +164. We dropped a +1119 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next three business days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (more than 12 weeks) of clear sailing. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +21.9% (+29.7% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-24-03 Dear Reader: Slow and short trading day, the S&P500 closed down 2 to 1094.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -55 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +403 to +361. We dropped a +154 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next four business days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The downturn in S&P gives us a FIRE signal (second half of ARM & FIRE SELL signal) to complete the SELL signal, but it is a sterile signal since we have no positions on. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. Happy Holidays!

12-23-03 Dear Reader: Boring trading day again, the S&P500 closed up 3 to 1096.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +283 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +420 to +403. We dropped a +368 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next five business days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA gives us an ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE SELL signal). Any decline in S&P500 tomorrow will constitute a Short-term SELL signal, but it will be a sterile signal since we have no positions on. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-22-03 Dear Reader: This may be a short, boring trading week. After languishing all day, the S&P500 closed up 4 to 1093.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +419 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +252 to +420. We dropped a -412 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next five business days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. Since we are above 400 on 5DMA, we say the market is over-bought and due for a decline. Even though the bogey from Friday  (1089.2) was violated by more than 1.5 points today, and would thus give a RunLite BUY signal, our RunLite rules ignore every signal after the first, so this is our second and will be ignored. The first RunLite BUY signal was 12/17. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-19-03 Dear Reader: By another razor-thin margin we get a signal, a SELL signal (see next paragraph). The S&P500 closed down less than a point 1089.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +33 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +303 to +252. We dropped a +354 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Monday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a Short-term SELL signal. This round trip netted us a gain of 1.1%. This brings our net gain for the year to +24.7%, versus 23.7% for S&P500. Market State and Results_Hist_99_03 have been updated. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. We have created two five year Tables for Results_History; they are Results_Hist_94_98 and Results_Hist_99-03. They are accessible via the links near the bottom of this page.

Long-Term Investors End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (more than 12 weeks) of clear sailing. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +21.1% (+28.6% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-18-03 Dear Reader: A very nice rally as a reward for our BUY signal yesterday. The S&P500 closed up 13 to 1089.  We're not going to jinx it by saying "Santa Claus rally".

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +1119 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +303 to +317. We dropped a +1051 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

12-17-03 Dear Reader: By the skin of our teeth we got a RunLite BUY signal (see next paragraph). The S&P500 closed up 1 to 1076.3.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +154 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +200 to +303. We dropped a -364 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Thursday-Friday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The bogey (previous minor high) for a RunLite BUY signal is 1074.1, set on 12/12. We add 1.5 points to that or 1075.6, for surety, and we exceeded that today, so we get the signal. We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQ, and IWM (please see ETF page for explanation of symbols). The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-16-03 Dear Reader: By the skin of our teeth we avoided a RunLite BUY signal (not that we WANTED to avoid any signal)(see next paragraph). The S&P500 closed up 7 to 1075.1.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +368 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +8 to +200. We dropped a -590 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA did not give a Run-5 BUY signal since we were not below the threshold of -5 in 5DMA when this occurred (we were at +8). The bogey (previous minor high) for a RunLite BUY signal is 1074.1, set on 12/12. We add 1.5 points to that or 1075.6, for surety, before we declare a RunLite BUY signal. We missed that signal by a fraction of a point. It was a close call all the way to the end of trading. A rise tomorrow of 0.5 S&P points will trigger the RunLite immediate BUY signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-15-03 Dear Reader: Despite any news, we got a SELL signal today (see next paragraph). The S&P500 closed down 6 to 1068.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -412 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +152 to +8. We dropped a +310 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a Short-term SELL signal.  This round trip netted us a loss of 0.3%. This brings our net gain for the year to +23.58%, versus 21.4% for S&P500. Market State and Results_History have been updated. We are just a few points from either a RunLite BUY signal or a drop to Oscillatory in Market State, since the bogeys are both nearby. RunLite would be consistent with the oft-mentioned Santa Claus rally, whereas a drop to Oscillatory would indicate a possible beginning of an intermediate term downturn lasting one or months (roughly speaking). The January rally or lack thereof will also be an indicator for future advance or decline, especially the first five trading days of January 2004. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-12-03 Dear Reader: A boring bob and weave around the zero line after yesterday's strong advance. The S&P500 closed up 3 to 1074.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +354 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -11 to +152. We dropped a -460 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. We are now in the SELL range because we are above the upper threshold of +2.5. Let's hope we get a little more upside before we get hit with a sell. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (more than 12 weeks) of clear sailing. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +19.5% (+27.7% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-11-03 Dear Reader: A booming rally and a BUY signal (see next paragraph). The S&P500 closed up 12 to 1071 (just exceeding the previous recent high). We dont pay any attention to the only-30 stock Dow Jones average.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a whopping +1051 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -217 to -11. We dropped a +18 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative/neutral bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives us a Short-term BUY signal (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms). This was a normal Run-5 BUY signal and not a RunLite BUY signal (if we had both signals simultaneously, we would take the Run-5 signal as it is less restrictive). We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQ, and IWM (please see ETF page for explanation of symbols). The Market State page has been updated for the BUY.

12-10-03 Dear Reader: Up and down around zero all day, the S&P500 closed down 1 to 1059.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -364 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -189 to -217. We dropped a -224 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative/neutral bias Thursday due to dropping a small positive number from the average from six days prior. We should get a BUY signal any day. No signals today.

12-9-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 9 to 1060.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -590 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -112 to -189. We dropped a -193 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We are now in the buying range in 5DMA, which is below -5. No signals today.

12-8-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 8 to 1069.  It may feel like a buy signal, but it isnt (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +300 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -4.8 to -112. We dropped a +835 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. We are now in the buying range in 5DMA, which is below -5. The S&P500 and the 5DMA must turn up together or the 5DMA must turn first, in the ARM & FIRE sequence; we got neither one today. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-5-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 8 to 1062.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -460 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +105 to -4.8. We dropped a +87 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. This market action is bullish because we are wearing down the over-bought condition in 5DMA without any large declines in S&P. And we have come close to the very bullish RunLite BUY signal. We are close to the normal buying range in 5DMA, which is -5. No signals today.

We see how the 1.5 point RunLite rule saved us from making a mistake and buying prematurely. The previous bogey was 1070.1, and yesterday's close was 1070.7, so the previous minor high was exceeded. But since we have the rule that for the immediate RunLite Buy, the bogey must be exceeded by 1.5 points or more, we were spared a false buy. This additional data point lends confidence to the rule. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (more than 12 weeks) of clear sailing. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +18.1% (+26.6% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-4-03 Dear Reader: Up, then down, then finally the S&P500 closed up 5 to 1071.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +18 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +202 to +105. We dropped a +503 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday-Monday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We were close to a BUY signal, but no cigar. To get a RunLite BUY signal we would have to have an S&P close 1.5 points above the bogey for the last sell, that is, at 1070.1+1.5=1071.6. The bogey is the minor high (set on 12/1) just before a sell signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-3-03 Dear Reader: After being up most of the day, the S&P500 closed down 2 to 1065. I thought we might get a RunLite BUY signal but it didnt happen.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -224 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +350 to +202. We dropped a +519 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next three days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. To get a RunLite BUY signal we would have to have an S&P close 1.5 points above the bogey for yesterday's sell, that is, at 1070.1+1.5=1071.6. The bogey is the minor high (set on 12/1) just before a sell signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. In future the same criterion applies, we need a close at 1071.6 or greater to activate a RunLite immediate BUY signal.

12-2-03 Dear Reader: Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). The S&P500 was down 4 to 1067.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -193 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +572 to +350. We dropped a +915 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next four days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a Short-term SELL signal.  This round trip netted us a gain of 3.0%. This brings our net gain for the year to +23.88%, versus 21.2% for S&P500. Market State and Results_History have been updated. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-1-03 Dear Reader: A boomer advance, everyone's saying Santa Claus rally, but beware, we are very Short-term over-bought (see next paragraph). The S&P500 was up 12 to 1070. We'll take it.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +835 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +450 to +572. We dropped a +224 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next five days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We are over-bought, since the 5DMA is above 400. Expecting a Short-term SELL signal any day. No signals today.

We can rally overall in December, even if we have a several days long decline, which may start soon. We want to be out of the market during any decline that is flagged by a System SELL signal. We never can be sure the month-long rally will occur, and after the decline we will get back in again.