12-31-04 Dear Readers:  For the final session of 2004 the S&P500 wimped out with a 2 point decline to 1212.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -2 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +145 to +112. We dropped a +161 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No Signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of December, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR signals. No change in our positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The gain in these positions since the BULL market beginning on 11/5/04 is 3.9% using S&P only as the basis, or 5.3% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The net gain for the year was 26.1% using S&P only, or 32.7% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.  The S&P500 needs to stay above 1142. for four more weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal.

12-30-04 Dear Readers:  In a sleepy session, the S&P500 finally closed up less than a point to 1214.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +70 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +203 to +145. We dropped a +361 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No Signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-29-04 Dear Readers:  In the last hour the S&P500 hovered at a loss of less than one point until two minutes before the close, when it hovered above yesterday's close, then finally closed down less than a point to 1214. Since we cant place ALL orders at the close, we sold out our long positions in the final few minutes, even though we didnt actually get a SELL signal until after the close (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +133 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +348 to +203. We dropped a +857 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. The round trip gain on these positions since the BUY on 12/22/04 was 0.3%, bringing the gain for the year to 6%. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL.

12-28-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 moved nicely higher and closed up by 9 to 1214. The S&P is now in new high ground compared to the last three years, but should encounter resistance as it moves towards the all-time high of about 1555 in March, 2000.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +606 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +216 to +348. We dropped a -53 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We are glad the failure of the 5DMA yesterday to turn down prevented us from getting a SELL signal. That worked out nicely today as we were still long for today's rally. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-27-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 closed down by 5 to 1205.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -247 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +143 to +216. We dropped a -610 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. A normal SELL signal requires a downturn in 5DMA, which was absent today. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-23-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 closed up by less than a point to 1210.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +161 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +73 to +143. We dropped a -192 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of November, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR signals. No change in our positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The gain in these positions since the BULL market beginning on 11/5/04 is 3.8% using S&P only as the basis, or 6.% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.  The S&P500 needs to stay above 1142. for another week to avoid a BEAR market signal.

12-22-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 closed up by 4 to 1210. RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +361 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +114 to +73. We dropped a +567 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upper bogey (minor high before last SELL signal) set at 1205.7 on 12/15/04 was violated today by more than 1.5 S&P points. This gives a Short-term RunLite BUY signal (there is no significance to today's decline in 5DMA in a RunLite or Run BUY signal). The RunLite State is Dirty, meaning that an occurrence of a RunLite signal, after the first one, would not be acted upon. The RunLite flag does not apply to the first occurrence of RunLite, which is what we had today. We bought equal amounts of SPY and QQQQ using 100% of available funds for equities. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY.

12-21-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 closed up strongly by 11  to 1205. We came close to a RunLite BUY signal, maybe it will come tomorrow (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +857 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +33 to +114. We dropped a +455 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. The upper bogey (minor high before last SELL signal) was set at 1205.7 on 12/15/04. We must have an S&P close that is 1.5 points greater than the bogey or: 1205.7+1.5=1207.2 or greater. That is the value we are looking for to get a RunLite BUY signal. We actually closed virtually equal to the previous bogey, so if we fall from here, this will be considered a double top. (This is the reason for the 1.5 points rule on the RunLite BUY signal rule, i.e., just equalling the previous high makes a BEARish double top.) Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-20-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 closed up less than a point to 1195.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -53 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +206 to +33. We dropped a +695 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-17-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 closed down 9 to 1194.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -496 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +289 to +206. We dropped a -79 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of November, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR signals. No change in our positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The gain in these positions since the BULL market beginning on 11/5/04 is 2.4% using S&P only as the basis, or 3.6% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.  The S&P500 needs to stay above 1142. for the next two weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal.

12-16-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 closed down 3 to 1203. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -192 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +386 to +289. We dropped a +291 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short term SELL signal. The round trip gain was 1.2%, bringing our gain for the year to 5.6%. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-15-04 Dear Readers:  Market just milling around today. The S&P500 closed up 2 to 1206. Our Short-term BUY signal of 12/9/04 is still looking good.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +567 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +301 to +386. We dropped a +143 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We are well above the upper threshold of +2.5 on 5DMA for a Short-term SELL signal, which could come any day. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-14-04 Dear Readers:  Another advance today. The S&P500 closed up 5 to 1203. Our Short-term BUY signal of 12/9/04 is still looking good.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +455 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +10 to +301. We dropped a -1002 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We are well above the upper threshold of +2.5 on 5DMA for a Short-term SELL signal, which could come any day. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-13-04 Dear Readers:  A handsome advance today. The S&P500 closed up11 to 1199. Our Short-term BUY signal of 12/9/04 is looking good so far.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +695 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -166 to +10. We dropped a -183 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-10-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 closed down 1 to 1188.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -79 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -115 to -166. We dropped a +174 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of November, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 week MA is what we use for the BEAR signals. No change in our positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The gain in these positions since the BULL market beginning on 11/5/04 is 1.9% using S&P only as the basis, or 3.1% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.  The S&P500 needs to stay above 1121. for the next three weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal.

12-09-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 again closed up 6 to 1189. Regular Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +291 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -235 to -115. We dropped a -308 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a regular Short-term BUY signal (as opposed to a RunLite BUY signal). We bought equal amounts of SPY and QQQQ with 100% of available funds for equities. Please see ETF page for explanation of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-08-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 finally closed up 6 to 1183. Looks like a BUY signal, but it isnt (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +143 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -59 to -235. We dropped a +1024 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold for a BUY signal, which could come soon. It was not a BUY signal because the 5DMA did not turn up. Stay tuned. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-07-04 Dear Readers:  Well at least the market stopped the wishy-washy and did something strongly. The S&P500 finally closed down 13 to 1177. Glad we observed the SELL signal on 12/2/04, even though it generated a small loss; we avoided the larger loss today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1002 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +95 to -59. We dropped a -230 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a SELL signal, but it is Sterile since we have no positions on. We are also now below the lower threshold for a BUY signal, which could come soon. Stay tuned. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-06-04 Dear Readers:  Another dull day, the S&P500 finally closed down 1 to 1190.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -183 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +88 to +95. We dropped a -220 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-03-04 Dear Readers:  Another dull day, the S&P500 finally closed up 1 to 1191.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +174 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +77 to +88. We dropped a +100 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. Today was not a RunLite BUY signal since the bogey (1191.4 set on 12/1/04) was not exceeded by 1.5 S&P points; and anyway the RunLite State is Dirty, indicating we should ignore the next RunLite BUY signal.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of November, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 week MA is what we use for the BEAR signals. No change in our positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The gain in these positions since the BULL market beginning on 11/5/04 is 2.1% using S&P only as the basis, or 3.7% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.  The S&P500 needs to stay above 1157. for the next week to avoid a BEAR market signal.

12-02-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 meandered around the zero change line all day and finally closed down 1 to 1190. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -263 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +237 to +77. We dropped a +492 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA is above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. The loss on this round trip (from yesterday's BUY signal) was less than 0.1%, bringing our return for the year to +4.5%. The choice of buying with only 50% of available funds because of the ambiguity mentioned yesterday, turned out well. The tiny loss on this trade, while good news in a way, doesnt help much in resolving the ambiguity mentioned yesterday. Actually, since we had 50% SPY and 50% QQQQ, we actually had a profit, since the gain on the QQQQ (0.25%) exceeded the loss on SPY. But our accounting in Results_History is based on S&P500 only. The symbol for NASDAQ 100 changed from qqq to qqqq yesterday. We are going to have to say the RunLite State has changed to Dirty based on today's loss (didnt really change, it was Dirty from Jan 2003, which is too stale to have any meaning). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. The Results_History has also been updated for the round trip buy/sell. The November end of month commentary will be on 12/3/04.

12-01-04 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 boomed ahead by 18 to 1191. Short-term RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1024 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +64 to +237. We dropped a +161 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P while in Run-5 State, with violation of the upside bogey of 1182.7 set on 11/26 by more than 1.5 S&P points, with this being the first call of RunLite in this sequence, gives a RunLite BUY signal. But another ambiguity has emerged, in that the Whipsaw State is Dirty, meaning that a regular BUY signal should be ignored until that state changes to Clean. But RunLite rules say ignore Whipsaw State. But that rule refers to a whipsaw created today, as in if we had a SELL signal yesterday, and today we got the RunLite BUY signal. So this will be a test. If this trade today turns out to be profitable, we can not only change the Whipsaw State to Clean, we can also change the RunLite rules to include ANY occurrence of Whipsaw Dirty should be ignored for RunLite BUY signals. Because of this ambiguity, I am risking only 50% of available funds for short-term equities, rather than the 100% that would be called for if there were no ambiguity. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. The November end of month commentary will be on 12/3/04.