12-30-05  The S&P was down 6 to 1248.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -462 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -7 to -183. We dropped a +422 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month/End of Year update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +2.3%, using S&P as the basis, or 1.6% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. We gained an additional 2.6% from the Bull market which lasted from 11/5/04 to 10/5/05. We notice that the 9 month MA did not indicate a BEAR market in the last two years, while the 40WMA indicated two BEAR markets. In future we will label a 40WMA BEAR market signal as an ARM, wherein we will sell only 50% of long-term System stocks and sell the remaining 50% (FIRE) when/if the 9 month MA confirms the BEAR market. The change in S&P over the last 12 months was +3.0%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-29-05  The S&P was down 4 to 1254. Sterile SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -119 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +114 to -7. We dropped a +484 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold in 5DMA of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal, but it is sterile since we sold out on 12/27/05. This answers the question posed yesterday concerning the after-hours change in the SELL signal of 12/27. It made little difference; we gained one S&P point by selling on 12/27 versus selling today. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 for a buy signal, which will come when the S&P and 5DMA both turn up. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-28-05  A small rebound rally today. The S&P was up 2 to 1258. And surprise, yesterday's OBV decreased overnight with the usual re-statement to delete non-NYSE and after hours volume. Thus yesterday's SELL signal is negated. It remains to be seen over the next few days how effective the SELL signal was, i.e., would we lose or gain by acting on the SELL signal or not?

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +211 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +55 to +118. We dropped a -103 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-27-05  The S&P went into the tank today, down 12 to 1257. This is not looking like a Santa Claus rally. The only good thing I can say about it is, maybe we'll get a big rebound first week of January 06, and that has some probability of setting up the entire year 06. SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -668 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +29 to +55 [re-stated after hours, see column 12/28/05]. We dropped a -796 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous down turn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 12/22/05. Please see the ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The round trip result was -0.9% (the same as the gain on the last trade), which brings the result for the year to -3.4%. The Market State page and the Results_History04- have been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-23-05  In a yawn of the last pre-Christmas session, the S&P moved higher by 1 to 1269.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +140 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -7 to +29. We dropped a -43 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday next (Monday is a market holiday) due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above the upper threshold of +2.5 in 5DMA needed for a SELL signal. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of November, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-22-05  The S&P moved higher by 5 to 1268. We got a definite BUY signal today (see next paragraphs).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +422 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -151 to -7We dropped a -295 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. 

First, let's deal with yesterday's muddle. After the close we had a BUY signal based on late volume figures. This morning we corrected the figures as we do every day, to exclude non-NYSE and non-regular hours volume, and the BUY signal went away. So what to do this morning? It was a case we have not seen before, so we decided to BUY with 50% of available funds for equities and do the other 50% on the close today, if the BUY was confirmed today, which it was, so we bought on the close and are now 100% invested. We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. We have changed the Market State page for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-21-05  The S&P moved higher by 4 to 1264. We got a BUY signal after the close today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +484 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -138 to -151 (figures corrected morning of 12/22). We dropped a +549 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The S&P turned up, but the 5DMA didnt until after the close, so we have a late BUY signal today. The margin in 5DMA that gives the BUY signal is so small that we need to check the Nightly Business Report (PBS-TV) tomorrow before the opening, so we can correct the 5DMA figures for the final values. If we still have the BUY signal after that, we will enter orders, using 100% of available funds for equities, to BUY at the open tomorrow equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. We will not change the Market State page until tomorrow, if necessary to record the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-20-05  The S&P moved lower again by less than a point to 1260. Where is the famed Christmas rally?

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -103 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -40 to -138. We dropped a +384 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA, which means we can get a buy signal if both S&P and 5DMA turn up. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-19-05  The S&P moved lower again, after a strong opening, by 7 to 1260. With the strong opening I thought we might get a RunLite buy signal, which would occur if we closed 1.5 points higher than the last minor high (bogey) of 1272.7 on 12/14/05, or at 1274.2 or higher.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -796 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +163 to -40. We dropped a +219 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA, which means we can get a buy signal if both S&P and 5DMA turn up. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-16-05  The S&P fell by 4 to 1267.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -43 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +230 to +163. We dropped a +294 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of November, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-15-05  The S&P fell by 2 to 1271. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -295 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +300 to +230. We dropped a +54 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous down turn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ we bought on 12/9/05. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The round trip yielded a profit of 0.9%, bringing the result for the year to -2.5%. We have updated the Market State page and the Results_History04-. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-14-05  The S&P rose by another 5 to 1273.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +549 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +96 to +300. We dropped a -469 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We are well above the upper threshold of +2.5 in 5DMA for a sell signal, which could come at any time now. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-13-05  The S&P rose by 7 to 1267.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +384 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +84 to +96. We dropped a +324 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-12-05  The S&P rose by 1 to 1260.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +219 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -14 to +84. We dropped a -274 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-9-05  The S&P rose by 4 to 1259. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +294 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -83 to -14. We dropped a -64 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of November, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. The nine month moving average shows a BULL market, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. In our BULL Bogey table are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar term

12-8-05  The S&P fell by 2 to 1256.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +66 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +135 to -83. We dropped a +1157 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-7-05  The S&P fell by 6 to 1257.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -469 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV was unchanged at +135. We dropped a -470 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term sell signal, but it is sterile since we have no positions on. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-6-05  The S&P rose by 2 to 1264.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +324 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +81 to +135. We dropped a +56 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We would have got a RunLite BUY signal if we had exceeded the previous minor high (bogey) (1265.1 on 12/2/05) by at least 1.5 S&P points; may happen tomorrow. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-5-05  The S&P fell by 3 to 1262. SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -274 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually rose from -2 to +81. We dropped a -689 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P is a FIRE signal which completes the ARM & FIRE SELL signal from Friday. We sold the SPY, QQQQ, and IWM we bought on 12/1/05. The round trip lost 0.2%, bringing the result for the year to -3.4%. We have updated the Market State page and the Results_History04- . Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-2-05  The S&P gained less than a point to 1265.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -64 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +38 to -2.  We dropped a +135 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in 5DMA, while it was above the upper threshold of +2.5, while the S&P did not decline, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE SELL signal). Any decline Monday in S&P will complete the Fire and SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of November, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. The nine month moving average shows a BULL market, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. In our BULL Bogey table are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

12-1-05  The S&P made a strong up move, gaining 15 to 1265. Short-term BUY signal today, see next paragraph.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1157 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -83 to +38.  We dropped a +576 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ, using 100% of available funds for equities. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State Page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.