2-27-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up a tiny fraction to 1145.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +291 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -86 to +104. We dropped a -660 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. We are now in sell territory since we are above +2.5 on 5DMA. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (more than 12 weeks) of clear sailing in this BULL market. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +27.4% (+34.4% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.  

2-26-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 1 to 1145.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +420 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -243 to -86. We dropped a -365 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias the next three days due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

2-25-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 5 to 1144. BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +566 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -447 to -243. We dropped a -454 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias the next four days due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives us a normal Run-5 BUY signal. We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQ, and IWM (please see ETF page for explanation of symbols). The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

2-24-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 2 to 1139.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -251 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -237 to -447. We dropped a +799 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive bias the next five days due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. We are now over-sold since we are below -400 on 5DMA and we could get a BUY signal any day, if the S&P and the 5DMA turn up simultaneously. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

2-23-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 3 to 1141.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -506 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -226 to -237. We dropped a -452 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We could get a BUY signal any day, if the S&P and the 5DMA turn up simultaneously. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

2-20-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 3 to 1144.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -660 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -131 to -226. We dropped a -183 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Monday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We are now in BUYing range since the 5DMA is below -5 for our current State of Run-5. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (more than 12 weeks) of clear sailing in this BULL market. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +27.3% (+34.7% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.  

2-19-04 Dear Reader: After being up most of the day, the S&P500 closed down 5 to 1147.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -365 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +158 to -131. We dropped a +982 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Friday-Monday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. We are now in BUYing range since the 5DMA is below -5 for our current State of Run-5. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

2-18-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 declined by 5 to 1152.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -454 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +295 to +158. We dropped a +329 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a SELL signal, but it is sterile since we have no positions on. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

2-17-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 boomed ahead today by 11 to 1157.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +799 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +145 to +295. We dropped a +52 from the average from six days ago, giving us a slight negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The bogey (recent minor high) we are watching is 1157.8 set on 2/11/04. We closed less than a point away from that today. If the S&P closes above that value plus 1.5 points (1157.8+1.5=1159.3) we will have a RunLite BUY signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

2-13-04 Dear Reader: Looking much like yesterday, the S&P500 fell by another 6 to 1146.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -452 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +448 to +145. We dropped a +1062 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias today. We will have a negative bias the next three days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (more than 12 weeks) of clear sailing in this BULL market. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +27.5% (+35.3% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.  

2-12-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 fell by 6 to 1152. Sterile SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -183 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +538 to +448. We dropped a +264 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias the next four days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal, but it is sterile since we have no positions on. If we had acted on yesterday's RunLight BUY signal, which we ignored (see yesterday's column), we would have a loss today, when we would have been forced to SELL it. We do not update Market State page for sterile signals. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

2-11-04 Dear Reader: After several boring days, the S&P500 boomed ahead by 12 to 1157.8.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +982 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +189 to +538. We dropped a -760 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a negative bias the next five days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The 5DMA is now over-bought since it is above 400. The previous high after which a SELL occurred (the bogey) was on 1/26/04, when S&P closed at 1155.3. We exceeded that by more than 1.5 points, so today is a RunLight BUY signal, but we must ignore it under the rule that if Market State rises from OSCILLATORY to Run-5 and the RunLite BUY occur on the same day, we must ignore the RunLite BUY signal. Exceeding the previous bogey kicks the Market State from OSCILLATORY up to Run-5. Please see Market State, which has been updated for the Run-5 state, and see Glossary>Run... for any unfamiliar terms.

2-10-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 rose by 6 to 1146.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +329 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +88 to +189. We dropped a -179 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

2-9-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 fell by 3 to 1140.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +52 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +122 to +88. We dropped a +223 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a SELL signal, which is sterile since we do not have any positions on. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. We do not update Market State page for sterile signals.

Short-sellers paragraph. Since we are in OSCILLATORY State, we would be able to sell short on this signal, except that the Short-sale State is Dirty.  So we have to do a notional short-sale (on paper only). If the trade turns out to have been profitable, the Short-sale State changes to Clean, and the next time this occurs, we can sell short if we like. (See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.)

2-6-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 boomed ahead by 14 to 1143.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +1062 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -66 to +122. We dropped a +123 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior.We are now in the normal SELL range, being above +19 on 5DMA. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (more than 12 weeks) of clear sailing in this BULL market. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +27.1% (+35.5% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

2-5-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 rose today by 2 to 1129.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +264 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -175 to -66. We dropped a -281 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday-Monday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. One might think that today was a BUY signal because we had upturn in S&P and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28 (not -5, we are now in OSCILLATORY state), but since yesterday was a SELL signal, today's BUY signal is considered a Whipsaw, and is thus not acted upon. The Whipsaw state changes to Dirty, and the Market State page has been updated therefor. In that state we must observe, but not act on, BUY signals until we observe one which does not follow a SELL day. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

2-4-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 fell today by 9 to 1127. SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -760 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -236 to -175. We dropped a -1064 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The violation of the bogey of 1128.5, set on 1/28/04, changes the Market State from Run-5 to OSCILLATORY (despite any rise in 5DMA) and gives an immediate Short-term SELL signal. The loss on this round trip was -0.7%, bringing the result for the year to -0.6%. We have updated the Market State and Results_Hist_99_03 pages. The drop in Market State to Oscillatory changes the thresholds in 5DMA at which buy and sell decisions are made. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

2-3-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 rose today by 1 to 1136.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -179 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -270 to -236. We dropped a -353 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives us a BUY signal, the second in a row. This was a sterile signal since we are already fully invested from the BUY signal on 1/29/04. We still must be concerned that we are close to the bogey of 1128.5 on S&P that will give us a SELL signal (see column for 1/30/04).

2-2-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 rose today by 4 to 1135.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +223 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -193 to -270. We dropped a +608 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today. We could get a repeat BUY signal any day and also we are still close to the bogey of 1128.5 on S&P that will give us a SELL signal (see column for 1/30/04); treacherous times!