2-28-05 Dear Readers: Off its worst levels of the day, the S&P500 finished down 8 to 1204. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -672 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +188 to +63.  We dropped a -45 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM that we bought on 2/23/05; please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The round trip profit was +1.1% based on SPY only, bringing our net for the year to +1.1%, versus S&P net of -0.7%.  Market State Page has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

We will have the End-of-Month story on Friday this week.

Do we see a Bearish triple top in the S&P? Compare the closes on 12/30/04 (1213.5), on 2/16/05 (1210.3) and on 2/27/05 (1211.4).  The only problem I see with this set is that there should be two weeks between each top for it to have a classic form. The last two are not two weeks apart. We will see over the next few weeks if that was a classic triple top (very Bearish) or not.

Short-sellers paragraph. We are not allowed to sell short this sell signal because we are in RUN-5 state. But we must notionally (on paper only) sell the S&P short, so that if the sell bogey (yesterday's close) is violated we can be lifted up into the  RunLight State. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-25-05 Dear Readers:  In a very nice advance, the S&P500 finished up 11 to 1211.4.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +900 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -119 to +188.  We dropped a -637 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now well above the upper threshold of +2.5 in 5DMA for a Short-term SELL signal. When next the S&P and 5DMA both turn down, we will have the signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

About a week ago we had a minor S&P top at 1210.3. Today we closed above that. We now have rising bottoms at 1163.8 on 1/24/05 and 1184.2 on 2/22/05. The rising tops are 1210.3 on 2/16/05 and today's close of 1211.4, which exceeds the previous top by at least one point, so whenever the next minor top occurs it will be at or above 1211.4.. These factors change the Intermediate Down Trend to False, which changes the Long-Purchase State from Dirty to Clean. Which means we may now buy with up to 100% of available funds for equities on a buy signal. The Market State page has been updated for this change.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition of a continuing BULL market. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of January, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +3.8% using S&P only as the basis, or +2.5% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1136. for five weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal.

2-24-05 Dear Readers:  In another nice advance, the S&P500 finished up 9 to 1200.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +682 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -259 to -119. We dropped a -20 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-23-05 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 finished up 7 to 1191. BUY signal today (please see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +587 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -312 to -259. We dropped a +322 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds (Intermediate Down Trend is still True): equal amounts of QQQQ, SPY, IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-22-05 Dear Readers:  After yesterday's holiday, the market went into the tank today. The S&P500 finished down 17 to 1184.  I'm so glad our Short-term SELL signal came 2/17/05. If you are Short-term oriented and didnt observe the SELL signal, you are probably carrying losses today. Long-term investors should stand pat, BULL market still in good evidence.  But we still have the Intermediate Down Trend flag as True. And this is actually a delicious buying point shaping up for us.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1181 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -53 to -312. We dropped a +116 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA for a BUY signal, which could come when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-18-05 Dear Readers:  Hanging around the flat line, it was a dull day. The S&P500 finished up 1 to 1202.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -45 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +123 to -53. We dropped a +836 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA for a BUY signal, which could come when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition of a continuing BULL market. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of January, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +3.% using S&P only as the basis, or +2.% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1136. for six weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal.

2-17-05 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 made a definite move to the down side, finishing down 10 to 1201. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -637 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +299 to +123. We dropped a +244 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. The profit on this round trip (re our purchase on 2/10/05) was 0.3%, using S&P only as measure, and brings the result for the year to -0.02%, compared with a result for S&P500 of -0.9%. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

There is a possible double top formed by the S&P500. Compare the high reached so far in this BULL market of 1213.5 on 12/30/04 with that of yesterday, 1210.3. That's pretty close, but we'd like to see them closer still for a double top. A double top is bearish, and can sometimes lead to a third top at about the same value. A triple top is even more bearish, indicating a value of S&P above which the market just cant go at this time. Such chart patterns are not part of the Systems, but are an interesting aside. We are still in a BULL market, for now.

Short-sellers paragraph. We can not sell short on today's sell signal since we are in RUN-5 State and short sales are not allowed by the System in the RUN States.

2-16-05 Dear Readers:  A dull day spent mostly on the down side. The S&P500 finished up less than a point at 1210.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -20 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +160 to +299. We dropped a -715 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are significantly above the 5DMA threshold (+2.5) for a SELL signal, which could come any day. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-15-05 Dear Readers:  A modest advance, the S&P500 finished up 4 to 1210.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +322 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +112 to +160. We dropped a +80 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-14-05 Dear Readers:  After muddling around all day, the S&P500 finished up 1 to 1206.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +116 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +70 to +112. We dropped a -94 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The up tick in S&P cancelled the ARM signal from Friday. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-11-05 Dear Readers:  Another nice up move, the S&P500 finished up 8 to 1205. Yesterday's BUY signal is looking good, especially for the Nasdaq QQQQ.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +836 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually declined from +71 to +70. We dropped a +842 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The decline in 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, while the S&P did not turn down, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM & Fire signal). Any decline in S&P Monday, regardless of what the 5DMA does, will complete a Short-term SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition of a continuing BULL market. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of January, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +3.4% using S&P only as the basis, or +2.6% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The market needs to stay above about 1107. for 2 more weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal.

2-10-05 Dear Readers:  A nice up move, the S&P500 finished up 5 to 1197. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +244 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -33 to +71. We dropped a -278 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ, and IWM with 50% of available funds for equities, since the Long-Purchase State is Dirty, because Intermediate Down Trend  (IDT) is True. Please see ETF page for explanation of these symbols. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY.

Whether the IDT has been broken is a little ambiguous. The chart pattern of the S&P500 (I wish I could get graphs to be included here) definitely shows the downtrend line to be broken at 1189 on 2/1/05. The re-tracement to the IDT line was insufficient (S&P came down to 1192, yesterday's close) to give confidence that the IDT is over.

2-9-05 Dear Readers:  A bad day if you're short term oriented and are long stocks. The S&P500 finished down by 10 to 1192. Our readers know we got a SELL signal 2/3/05. Long-term investors should do nothing.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -715 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +214 to -33. We dropped a +518 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We are now below the lower threshold (-5 on 5DMA) for a buy signal, which could come any day, if we get an upturn in both S&P and 5DMA. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-8-05 Dear Readers:  Another day of little action, the S&P500 finished up by 1 to 1202.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +80 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +332 to +214. We dropped a +669 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-7-05 Dear Readers:  After muddling around all day long, the S&P500 finished down by 1 to 1202.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -94 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +545 to +332. We dropped a +973 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We had a sterile Short-term SELL signal today because both the S&P and 5DMA turned down while the 5DMA was above its upper threshold of +2.5 (we are now in RUN-5 State); sterile because we had no positions on. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-4-05 Dear Readers:  In a booming rally that raised the Market State (please see next paragraph), the S&P500 finished up by 13 to 1203.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +842 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +310 to +545. We dropped a -333 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are again above +400 on 5DMA, we say we are over-bought. The violation on the upside of the high bogey (recent minor high after which our SELL came) of  1193.2 on 2/2/05 raises the Market State from OSCILLatory to RUN-5. This changes the thresholds in 5DMA at which signals are given and forbids short sales. One might think that a RunLight BUY signal occurred today. But we have the rule that "if the market state changes from OSCILLatory to RUN-5 and the RunLight BUY signal occur on the same day, the RunLight BUY signal is to be ignored". Market State page has been updated for the State change.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

The close above the previous high of 1196, set on 1/18/05, lends additional evidence that our Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) is over; however, we need to see how low the next decline carries before we declare that IDT is finished.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of January, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +3.16% using S&P only as the basis, or +2.75% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The market needs to stay above about 1107.  for 3 more weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal.

Short Sellers Paragraph: Today we see the reason for the four (S&P) points rule for short sales. The decline yesterday of less than four points prevented us from selling short, which shorts we would have been compelled to buy back today at a loss, since we never carry short sales when the upper bogey has been violated. Also we are now in Market State RUN-5, in which short sales are prohibited (in the Field Systems). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

2-3-05 Dear Readers:  The S&P500 finished down by 3 to 1190. SELL signal today (please see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -278 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +416 to +310. We dropped a +252 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today's simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM that we bought on 1/26/05. The round trip resulted in a gain of 1.4% (using S&P only), bringing the loss for the year 2005 to -0.3%, compared to the S&P loss of -1.8%.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. The Results_History has been updated for the round trip results.

Short Sellers Paragraph: We thought we would get to put on some short sales, but the market moved up near the close and closed down less that 4 points. We require at least a four point decline in S&P before we can sell short. A down close of at least 1 point tomorrow will give an OK to sell short. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

2-2-05 Dear Readers: This market just keep on trucking. And it shows why we must actually wait for a signal near the close before we sell. Often it looks like the market will close down and we sell stocks before the closing minutes, and the market rallies up for several days after, and we miss that move. In another move to the upside (we are in an Intermediate Down Trend (IDT)), the S&P500 finished up by 4 to 1193. We are now above the IDT upper trend line, which lends considerable weight that the IDT is over. But the volatility index (VIX) is quite low (at 11.65 today, 11.1 is the record low over last two years), indicating a high is near; so these two indicators may be conflicting.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +518 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +431 to +416. We dropped a +593 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today's decline in 5DMA without a decline in S&P gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE SELL signal). Any down close tomorrow in S&P, whether 5DMA closes down or not, will complete the FIRE for a SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-1-05 Dear Readers:  In another surprisingly strong move (because we are in an Intermediate Down Trend (IDT)), the S&P500 finished up by 8 to 1189. We are now above the IDT upper trend line, which lends considerable weight that the IDT is over. But the volatility index (VIX) is quite low (at 12), indicating a high is near; so these two indicators are conflicting.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +669 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +331 to +431. We dropped a +171 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We are now above the upper threshold on 5DMA of +19;  and we are above +400, which means we are overbought; we will get a SELL signal when the S&P and 5DMA both close down. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.