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Hybrid Short-Term/Long-Term System

 

 

 

The Hybrid Short-Term/Long-Term System is simply use of the Field Short-Term System in a BULL market and the Long-Term System in a BEAR market. In the Long-Term System in a BEAR market we have no equity positions, so actually we get money-market interest rate returns in a BEAR market. This Hybrid System shows larger returns over time than the Short-Term System.  The Table below shows the results of using the Hybrid System over the period 1994-2009. This System beats the S&P500 by 5.2% on average over the period studied and had only three losing years. The Short-Term System beats the S&P by about 3.7% and the Long-Term System beats the S&P by 5.7%. The Hybrid System has been added to the Glossary.

 

 

Year

 

 

Hybrid System

Percent Change

 

S&P500 Average

Percent Change 

 

1994

 

 

4.4 

 

 

-1.6 

 

 

1995

 

20.2

 

 

34.0 

 

 

1996

 

 

27.6 

 

 

20.3 

 

 

1997

 

 

23.3

 

 

31.0 

 

 

1998

 

 

37.0 

 

 

26.7 

 

 

1999

 

 

22.6

 

 

19.5 

 

 

2000

 

 

22.7 

 

 

-10.1 

 

 

2001

 

 

0*

 

 

-13.0 

 

 

2002

 

 

0*

 

 

-23.4 

 

 

2003

 

 

24.7 

 

 

26.4 

 

 

2004

 

 

5.6

 

 

9

 

 

2005

 

-2.3

 

 

3.0

 

2006

 

11.5

 

 

13.6

 

2007

 

-0.2

 

3.5

 

2008

-0.7

-38.5

2009

+12.1

+23.5

     

 

 

  

16 yr avg

 

13.0

 

7.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*Not including interest earnable on Money-Market Account. Also compounding not included.

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER: Past results are no guarantee of future results. StockMarketScience is for information and opinion only, and should not be considered stock or market advice. The user is totally responsible for any actions taken as a result of reading this publication, and StockMarketScience assumes NO liability for any losses suffered by anyone based on anything written here.

 

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This site written and copyright 2002-2009 by Richard L. Field, BA, BSME, MSME, PhD. Field holds a doctorate in Mechanical Engineering (Math minor) and worked in the Space program for 20+ years before retirement. He also taught four years at Texas A&M University.

 

MAIL: We receive email at richard.field@stockmarketscience.com.