1-31-06  The S&P was down 5 to 1280. The S&P was up about 32 points for January, indicating this will probably be an    up year. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -381 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +371 to +180. We dropped a +573 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA and S&P, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM that we bought on 1/19 and 1/23/06. The round trip resulted in a gain of +0.13%, bringing the result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to -2.3%. Since we are investing only 50% of available funds for equities on first buy signal and 25% on second buy signal, the gain is actually greater than if we used 100% on BUY #1. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-30-06  The S&P was up 1 to 1285. We are on track for an UP January, which was indicated by the up week at beginning of the year, and this January signal (although not guaranteed) indicates an up year.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +63 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +446 to +371. We dropped a +436 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA, while the S&P was up, constitutes an ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE SELL signal). Any downturn in S&P tomorrow will complete the SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-27-06  The S&P was up another 10 to 1284. We are on track for an UP January, which was indicated by the up week at beginning of the year, and this January signal (although not guaranteed) indicates an up year.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +596 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV jumped from +48 to +446. We dropped a -1433 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above +400 in 5DMA, so we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +5.21%, using S&P as the basis, or 5.71% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

1-26-06  The S&P was up 9 to 1274. I'm glad our long position was not sold out yesterday. We did not get  a sell signal then because, while the S&P was down, the 5DMA was up.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +796 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell (after hours) from +48 to +40. We dropped a +839 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. [The after hours 5DMA did decline, giving us an ARM signal (first half of an ARM and Fire sell signal), but the advance on 1/27 cancelled the ARM signal.] Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-25-06  The S&P was down 2 to 1265.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -174 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +15 to +48. We dropped a -341 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We dont get a sell signal since the 5DMA was up. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-24-06  The S&P was up 3 to 1267.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +573 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -213 to +15. We dropped a -568 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-23-06  The S&P was up 2 to 1264. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +436 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -307 to -213. We dropped a -31 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought, with 100% of available funds for equities, equal dollar amounts of SPY, QQQQ, and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Market State page has been updated for the BUY. This was an important BUY signal, perhaps the most important of the year, because it is the FIRST BUY signal since the pull back from the recent high, which occurred AFTER the breakthrough through the old high of about 1275. Yesterday's minor low could be on a trendline that travels upwards from here. We need significant follow-through now. If we dont get it, we may be looking at an Intermediate Down Trend. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-20-06 Market took a lot of gas today. The S&P was down 24 to 1261. We are below the S&P support level mentioned on 1/18 of 1268-1273. Next support level down is about 1248 (last seen 12/30/05). Today the S&P broke through the last bogey (recent minor low) and dropped the Market State from RUN-5 to OSCILLatory (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1433 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -157 to -307. We dropped a -685 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The violation today of the bogey, set at 1277.9 on 1/18/06, causes the Market State to drop from RUN-5 to OSCILLatory. This changes the thresholds in 5DMA at which signals are given. Market State page has been updated for the State change. We do not sell anything on such a change, sells will occur in the usual way when both S&P and 5DMA both turn down, while the 5DMA is above the upper threshold of +19, which was the factor missing in today's action. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +3.39%, using S&P as the basis, or 3.5% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

1-19-06 The S&P was up 7 to 1285. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +839 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -256 to -157. We dropped a +347 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought equal dollar amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ using 100% of available funds for equities. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-18-06 The S&P was down another 5 to 1278. The previous support/resistance level is at about 1268-1273. I would expect some rally from that area.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -341 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -176 to -256e dropped a +506 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA for a BUY signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-17-06 The S&P was down 5 to 1283.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -568 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +38 to -176. We dropped a +506 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA for a BUY signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-13-06 The S&P was up 2 to 1288.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -31 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +255 to +38. We dropped a +1055 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +5.38%, using S&P as the basis, or 6.0% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

1-12-06 The S&P was down 8 to 1286. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -825 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +396 to +252. We dropped a +16 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. Yesterday's RunLite BUY signal was squashed, so the RunLite Flag turns Dirty (or negative); it was already negative, so we re-affirm it. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ we bought yesterday. The round trip resulted in a loss of -0.6%, bringing the result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to -2.4%. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-11-06 The S&P was nicely higher today, up 4 to 1294. RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +450 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +480 to +416. We dropped a +769 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The rules for a RunLite BUY signal are a) that the close must be at least 1.5 S&P points higher than the last bogey, which was set at 1290.2 on 1/9/06 (this was met) and b) this must be the first occurrence of RunLite after a normal buy-sell trade (met). The decline in 5DMA today is immaterial to a RunLite signal. Also the Whipsaw (which occurred today) rule does not apply to RunLite. We bought equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ using 100% of available funds for equities. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-10-06 The S&P was slightly lower today, down 0.5 to 1290. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +54 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +704 to +480. We dropped a +1172 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ the we bought on 1/3/06. The profit on the round trip was 1.65%, bringing the result thus far in the BULL market (since 11/4/05) to -1.8%. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. The Results_History_04- has been updated for the buy/sell. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-9-06 The S&P was modestly ahead again today,  up 5 to 1290 today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +506 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +510 to +704. We dropped a -462 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-6-06 The S&P boomed ahead again today, giving us a boomer week. This augers well for the month and year. It was up 12 to 1285 today, a new 4 1/2 year high. We have toyed with the idea of creating a new Market State, Run*. We now have the State Run, which is defined as the S&P reaching a new all time high. The idea is that possibly the market memory after 3 years or more is sufficiently dim that a state Run* can be considered to be the same as Run, even though the high reached was not a new all time high but just a new high after 3 years. Since we are now at a high not seen for 4.5 years, we today would call a RUN* State. With Run* having the same rules as RUN, we BUY every up day in S&P and SELL on normal sell signals (simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1055 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +275 to +510. We dropped a -119 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The ARM sell half-signal from yesterday expired since the S&P did not close down today. No signals today (the Run* state would be called and an immediate BUY would be issued, but we are already fully invested, so the call would be sterile).. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +5.36%, using S&P as the basis, or 5.82% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. We notice that the 9 month MA did not indicate a BEAR market in the last two years, while the 40WMA indicated two BEAR markets. In future we will label a 40WMA BEAR market signal as an ARM, wherein we will sell only 50% of long-term System stocks and sell the remaining 50% (FIRE) when/if the 9 month MA confirms the BEAR market. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

1-5-06 The S&P closed up by the slimmest of margins, up 0.02 to 1273 today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +16 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +311 to +275. We dropped a +193 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The S&P was down until the last minutes of the day. The 5DMA was looking down also, which  meant a sell signal, but at the last minute the S&P rose above the zero line, so we get only an ARM (first half of ARM & FIRE SELL signal). Any decline in S&P tomorrow will complete the signal for a sell. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-4-06 The S&P made a further gain of 5 to 1273 today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +769 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +23 to +311. We dropped a -668 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-3-06 The S&P came out of the 2006 gate with a smashing win. It was up 21 to 1269. This augers well for the S&P for the month and the year if we can carry through for the rest of the week.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1172 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -183 to +23. We dropped a +140 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a  Short-term BUY signal. We bought, with 100% of available funds for equities, equal dollar amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.