7-29-05 Dear Readers:  The S&P closed down by 10 to 1234. SELL signal today (sterile), see next paragraph.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -614 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +261 to +42. We dropped a +484 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a SELL signal, but it is sterile since we have no positions on. And the result of a virtual purchase on 7/27/05 and sale today would have been a loss, so that retains the RunLite Flag at Dirty. We have entered the re-affirmation of the RunLite Flag as Dirty on the Market State page. That is the express purpose of the Flag, since it kept us out of this (real instead of virtual) trade. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +5.8% using S&P only as the basis, or +6.5% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1120 (bear bogey) for four weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-28-05 Dear Readers:  A nice move, the S&P closed up by 7 to 1244. It's beginning to look like the ignored RunLite BUY signal (yesterday) would have been profitable. And that's what we need to see to change the RunLite Flag to Clean, so that we can act on the next RunLite signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +719 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -51 to +261. We dropped a -843 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above the +2.5 in 5DMA threshold needed before we have a sell signal, which could come as soon as the S&P and 5DMA turn down. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-27-05 Dear Readers:  The S&P closed up by 6 to 1236.8. RunLite BUY signal today ignored (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +318 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -16 to -51. We dropped a +493 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The S&P close today exceeded the previous bogey (minor high) of 1235.2 on 7/20/05 by at least 1.5 points, so we have a RunLite BUY signal. But this is the second RunLite BUY signal in a row, and the first one resulted in a loss that re-affirmed the Dirty State of the RunLite Flag (see Market State page). Consequently this RunLite BUY signal is ignored.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-26-05 Dear Readers:  The S&P closed up by 2 to 1231.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +232 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +45 to -16. We dropped a +535 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA required for a buy signal, which could come as soon as we get an upturn in both S&P and 5DMA. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

I want to let you in on some thinking I have been doing. We could very soon again be in four-year-high territory. Our Market State RUN has not been used in several years, because it requires a new all-time high in S&P in order to be invoked. When it is invoked, we BUY every up day in the S&P (if we're not already fully invested). The SELL signal is the usual simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA. So we are wondering whether we need a RUN-like Market State that is invoked, for example, if the S&P high is the highest in say, 3 years. The rule would be the same as RUN, namely buy every up day. We could call this State RUN-faded, as slightly less strong than RUN. RUN-faded would be stronger than our RunLite. Right now we are in Run-5 State.

7-25-05 Dear Readers: Another dull one, up and down by smalls. Then in the last hour, the S&P closed down by 5 to 1229.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -446 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +47 to +45. We dropped a -432 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We get a sterile sell signal with the downturn in S&P and 5DMA today, sterile because we have no positions on. This is a good example of the need for the Whipsaw Rule that prevented us from buying Friday, when we had a buy signal the day after Thursday's SELL signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-22-05 Dear Readers: The other market indices were down all day, while the S&P was up modestly. In the last hour the markets recovered and the S&P closed up by 7 to 1234. If the S&P closes at or above 1236.7,  that would be a RunLite buy signal (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +484 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -55 to +47. We dropped a -26 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. But it is a whipsaw, since we had a SELL signal yesterday. We only ignore the whipsaw rule when we have a RunLite BUY signal. This was an ordinary BUY signal. So no signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of June, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +5.8% using S&P only as the basis, or +6.3% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1120 (bear bogey) for five weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-21-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed down by 8 to 1227. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -843 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +141 to -55. We dropped a +138 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a neutral bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a small number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the positions in SPY, QQQQ and IWM which we purchased on 7/19/05. The round trip result was loss of -0.2%, bringing the year's result to -0.3%. The trades have been recorded on the Results_Hist_04-. The RunLite State is already Dirty, so today's loss does not change that. The SELL has been recorded on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

We will have the opportunity over the next few weeks to see if the RUN state should be invoked. In the Glossary, we say that the RUN state can occur only if the S&P makes a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH within the last two weeks. The S&P yesterday was at a four year high, which is not the same as an ALL-TIME high. Whether we should treat a four-year high as if it were a new all-time high for RUN purposes is what we shall see. The RUN state, we BUY EVERY up day (w/o regard to the 5DMA), and sell by the usual sell rules, ie, simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA.

7-20-05 Dear Readers: After a sour opening that I thought would give our RunLite BUY yesterday a bad name, the S&P closed up nicely by 6 to 1235.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +493 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +49 to +141. We dropped a +31 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We are above the +2.5 threshold in 5DMA for a sell signal, which could come when the S&P and 5DMA turn down simultaneously. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-19-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed up by 6 to 1229.35. If the S&P closed at 1229.4 or above (hard to get closer than that, we round off to one place after decimal), we have a RunLight BUY signal. The RunLite BUY signal requires that the S&P close at least 1.5 points above the previous bogey (minor high), which was 1227.9 on 7/15/05. This call is so close to the rule, that it will be a good test of the rule. In other words, if the BUY turns out to have been a bad idea, we will change the amount by which the S&P must close above the bogey by 0.1 point, to 1.6 points, so as to exclude any future trades that are this close. Situations like this, however rare, are important to refining the System; you are seeing Science in Action. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +535 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +3 to +49. We dropped a +306 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The bogey violation gives a RunLite BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-18-05 Dear Readers: Well we finally get a Short-term SELL signal (see next paragraph). The S&P closed down by 7 to 1221. This is looking like a triple top, discussed here recently, which is not a Bullish pattern. That doesnt mean a BEAR market is in prospect, but it indicates difficulty in making an advance, or an advance that has failed three times at about the S&P value 1225. The near term direction is likely to be down.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -432 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +247 to +3. We dropped a +788 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in 5DMA and S&P, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 7/8/05. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The round trip result was +0.76%. That brings our result for the year to -0.1%. The result does not change the Run-5 Market State. The Results_History_04-  has been updated for the round trip. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short Sellers Paragraph. We can not sell short because we are in Market State Run-5. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-15-05 Dear Readers: The S&P was down by smalls all day, rallied near the close, and closed up by 1 to 1228. This is not an impressive performance for an S&P at a four year high.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -26 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +428 to +247. We dropped a +871 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA while the S&P was up, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives an ARM signal (first half of an ARM & FIRE). Any decline in S&P Monday will complete the ARM & FIRE for a SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of June, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +5.3% using S&P only as the basis, or +5.5% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1120 (bear bogey) for six weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The Friday update for 7/8/05 has been updated also, after most of our computer problems have been solved.

7-14-05 Dear Readers: The S&P was up by 3 to 1227. This is not the dramatic breakthrough of the 1225 level (that high was set 3/7/05) that we would like to see for a vigorous Bull market. It could decline from here and give us the triple top discussed yesterday.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +138 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +404 to +428. We dropped a +21 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Being above the 400 level in 5DMA, we say the market is Overbought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-13-05 Dear Readers: The S&P was up by 1 to 1223. Recently (6/24/05 column) we discussed "a triple top (closing prices): 1213.5 on 12/30/04, 1225.3 on 3/7/05, 1217 on 6/17/05. The three numbers are not real close together, which is why I called it ragged. The significance of this to our Systems is that we should merely recall this triple top pattern if we see other signs of a BEAR market forming". Today (if the market declines from here) an unambiguous double top (al;though the triple will still be a little ragged) will be in evidence. It's very Bullish that the S&P has advanced this far recently, and has destroyed the Intermediate Down Trend that was forming. If S&P breaks through this 1223 barrier decisively, that will be VERY Bullish.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +31 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +298 to +404. We dropped a -495 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The lack of a downturn today cancels the ARM & FIRE sequence that was begun yesterday. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-12-05 Dear Readers: The S&P was up by 3 to 1222. We were down earlier and I thought we might get a SELL signal, but it didnt happen.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +374 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +346 to +298. We dropped a +545 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA without a downturn in S&P is an ARM signal (first half of an ARM & Fire SELL signal). Any downturn in S&P tomorrow will complete the SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-11-05 Dear Readers: The S&P moved smartly ahead, up by 8 to 1219.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +788.4 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +255 to +346. We dropped a +331 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-8-05 Dear Readers: Sorry about the late Friday post. My computer died and I am slowly getting it back up. The S&P boomed ahead, up by 14 to 1212. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +871 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -41 to +255. We dropped a -598 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a short-term BUY signal. The System bought with 100% of available funds, equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. I personally did not purchase anything since my computer was down and I dont trust this rally anyway (too close to a whipsaw). Since we are now above the upper threshold of +2.5 in 5DMA, we could get a SELL signal any time both the S&P and 5DMA turn down. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of June, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +3.9% using S&P only as the basis, or +3.77% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1120 (bear bogey) for seven weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-7-05 Dear Readers: With the bad opening, we were glad to have sold out yesterday. I even tried to buy the opening for a few hours pop, but my order went into the ether and the market wasnt as bad as the pre-opening call, so I didnt re-place the order. The S&P recovered nicely and closed up by 3 to 1198. If the bad opening had stayed for the day, we would easily have the Intermediate-term Down Trend (IDT) called today. The bogey for the IDT is 1190.7, set on 6/27/05. Not only that, but this IDT will be lower than the one that started 3/7/05 at 1225.3 and ended 5/4/05 after the low at 1142.8 on 4/15/05. We are still not close to a BEAR market, but a pattern of DECLINING IDT's cant be Bullish.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +8 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -27 to -41. We dropped a +78 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. The upturn in S&P and OBV do not constitute a buy signal, since we must have the 5DMA of OBV to turn up for such a signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-6-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed down by 10 to 1195. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). This minor top (yesterday) is looking like another brick in the wall of an Intermediate-term Down Trend (IDT) a-building. All we need is a close below 1190 in the next week or two to allow us to declare that an IDT has formed. We scale-in purchases when we are in an IDT. Intermediate-term readers may elect to stay completely out of the market when an IDT is in effect.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -495 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +227 to -27. We dropped a +773 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in 5DMA and S&P, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 6/28/05. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The round trip result was -0.56%. That brings our result for the year to -0.85%. The result does not change the Run-5 Market State. The Results_History_04- has been updated for the round trip. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-5-05 Dear Readers: After an ugly opening, the S&P closed up smartly by 12 to 1206.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +545 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +78 to +227. We dropped a -201 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is now above +2.5, the upper threshold for a SELL signal, we can get such a signal anytime the S&P and the 5DMA turn down simultaneously. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-1-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed up 4 to 1195. Well, maybe we wont violate the 1190.7 bogey for a few days. Glad to see any rally here, as an Intermediate-term Down Trend is looking probable.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +331 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -141 to +78. We dropped a -762 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal, the second in a row. It is a Sterile signal since the System is already fully invested. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of June, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +2.42% using S&P only as the basis, or +1.66% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1132 (bear bogey) for one more week to avoid a BEAR market signal, after which we will be safe for about 3 weeks. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.