7-31-06  The S&P closed down 2 to 1277. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). The End-of-Month review will occur this Friday.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -118 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +543 to +271. We dropped a +1245 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5,  gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 7/28. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. This is the best kind of sell signal, giving the signal with a small decline, allows us to get the most for our positions. The result of this round trip was -0.1%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +2.5%.   The Market State page has been updated for the Short-term BUY signal. The Results_History_04- has been updated for the round trip. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-28-06  A nice advance, the S&P closed up 15 to 1279. RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1036 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +119 to +543. We dropped a -1086 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above +400 in 5DMA, so we say the market is overbought. Since the S&P exceeded the previous sell bogey (previous minor high) of 1268.9, which occurred on 7/25, by more than 1.5 S&P points while we are in RUN-5 State, we have a RunLite BUY signal (doesnt matter what 5DMA does). This necessitates an immediate BUY followed by a drop back to RUN-5 State. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the Short-term BUY signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up, indicating we have a continuing BULL market. Now the S&P is once again above the 200DMA line. The excursion below the line was indeed a buying opportunity, as mentioned last week. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and that the S&P is above that 9MMA average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40WMA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The S&P still closed above the bogey, which is at 1179.6, so we have avoided the 50% BEAR market signal this week. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of Aug 4, the bogey is 1198.4, so we are quite far away from that. About four weeks from now, if the S&P has not made a significant advance from here, we will again approach a BEAR market signal. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +4.8%, using S&P as the basis, or +0.7% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-27-06  The S&P closed down 5 to 1263.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -477 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +46 to +119. We dropped a -841 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-26-06  The S&P closed down less than a point to 1268.  Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +122 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +338 to +46. We dropped a +1584 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5,  gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 7/19/06. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols.  The result of this round trip was +0.7%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +2.6%. This is the best kind of sell signal, giving the signal with a VERY small decline, allows us to get the most for our positions. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. The Results_History_04- has been updated for the round trip. No change in our Intermediate-term long position. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-25-06 A nice advance after a boring beginning to the day. The S&P closed up 8 to 1269.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +791 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +198 to +338. We dropped a +91 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above +400 in 5DMA, so we say the market is over bought. We can get a Short-term SELL signal when S&P and 5DMA both turn down. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-24-06 A booming advance, the S&P closed up 21 to 1261.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1245 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -106 to +198. We dropped a -276 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today was a repeat BUY signal, but it was sterile since we are already 100% invested from the BUY signal on 6/19/06. We do not record such signals in the record. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-21-06 A further retracement of the big run-up on 7/19. The S&P closed down 9 to 1240.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1086 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -31 to -106. We dropped a -711 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. There was no sell signal since we were not above the upper threshold of +2.5 in 5DMA when todays downturn in S&P and 5DMA occurred. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up, indicating we have a continuing BULL market. But the S&P is now below the 200DMA line, indicating a possible buying opportunity. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and that the S&P is above that 9MMA average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40WMA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The S&P still closed above the bogey, which is at 1186.6, so we have avoided the 50% BEAR market signal this week. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of Jul 28, the bogey is 1179.6, so we are quite far away from that. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +1.7%, using S&P as the basis, or -2.6% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-20-06 A 50% retracement after yesterday's romp. The S&P closed down 11 to 1250.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -841 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -131 to -31. We dropped a -1342 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-19-06 The S&P boomed ahead and closed up 23 to 1260.  Short-term and Intermediate-term BUY signals today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1584 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -609 to -131. We dropped a -806 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The advancing volume was more than 10 times the declining volume, which is a rare event and usually indicates a top. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Intermediate-term (IT) BUY signal is based on the pullback of the S&P to the Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) line and then a subsequent Short-term BUY signal. The IT BUY signal we gave on 6/29/06 is being withdrawn. We should wait for the pull-back after breakthrough of the IDT line.  The Intermediate-term System has been under development here the past couple years. The Market State page has been updated for the Short-term and Intermediate-term BUY signals. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-18-06 The S&P closed up 2 to 1237.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +91 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -592 to -609 (if 5DMA rose, it would be a buy signal, maybe overnight figures will give it). We dropped a +175 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are below the lower threshold in 5DMA of -5, so we can get a buy signal when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. And we are below the 5DMA level of -400, so we say the market is oversold. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-17-06 The S&P closed down 2 to 1234. We have now more than retraced the very strong advance which occurred on 6/29/06. We are approaching the previous low of 8 months standing which was 1223.7 on 6/13/06. I dont think we will go below that low. I'm glad our System has kept us out of this decline. We are approaching a buying signal for both short and intermediate term investors. If we get an S&P close about 1220, that will touch the downtrend line which was our previous Intermediate-term Down Trend. We should rally off that line for a super-delicious BUY signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -276 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -489 to -592. We dropped a +139 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are below the lower threshold in 5DMA of -5, so we can get a buy signal when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. And we are below the 5DMA level of -400, so we say the market is oversold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-14-06 Wow this market just keeps on truckin'...the wrong way. The S&P closed down 6 to 1236. We have now more than retraced the very strong advance which occurred on 6/29/06. We are approaching the previous low of 8 months standing which was 1223.7 on 6/13/06. I dont think we will go below that low. I'm glad our System has kept us out of this decline. We are approaching a buying signal for both short and intermediate term investors. If we get an S&P close about 1230, that will touch the downtrend line which was our previous Intermediate-term Down Trend. We should rally off that line for a super-delicious BUY signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -711 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -489 to -509. We dropped a -611 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are below the lower threshold in 5DMA of -5, so we can get a buy signal when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. And we are below the 5DMA level of -400, so we say the market is oversold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up, indicating we have a continuing BULL market. But the S&P is now below the 200DMA line, indicating a possible buying opportunity. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and that the S&P is above that 9MMA average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40WMA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The S&P still closed above the bogey, which is at 1195.9, so we have avoided the 50% BEAR market signal this week. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of Jul 21, the bogey is 1186.6, so we are quite far away from that. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +1.3%, using S&P as the basis, or -2.4% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-13-06 Wow this market has been a shocker. The S&P closed down 16 to 1242. We have now retraced the very strong advance which occurred on 6/29/06. I'm glad our System has kept us out of this decline. We are approaching a delicious buying signal for both short and intermediate term investors.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1342 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -167 to -489. We dropped a +269 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are below the lower threshold in 5DMA of -5, so we can get a buy signal when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. And we are below the 5DMA level of -400, so we say the market is oversold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-12-06 The S&P closed down 14 to 1259. We seem to be retracing most of the very strong advance which occurred on 6/29/06. I'm glad our System has kept us out of this decline.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -806 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -166 to -167. We dropped a -802 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are below the lower threshold in 5DMA of -5, so we can get a buy signal when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-11-06 The S&P closed up 5 to 1273.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +175 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -127 to -166. We dropped a +372 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are below the lower threshold in 5DMA of -5, so we can get a buy signal when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-10-06 The S&P closed down 2 to 1267.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +139 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -70 to -127. We dropped a +423 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are below the lower threshold in 5DMA of -5, so we can get a buy signal when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-7-06 The S&P closed down 9 to 1266.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -611 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +369 to -70. We dropped a +1582 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is once again above the 200DMA line, indicating we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week. We are now above the 200DMA line. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and that the S&P is above that 9MMA average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40WMA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The S&P still closed above the bogey, which is at 1228.8, so we have avoided the 50% BEAR market signal this week. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of Jul 14, the bogey is 1195.9, so we are quite far away from that. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +3.6%, using S&P as the basis, or +0.9% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-6-06 After being up nicely earlier, the S&P closed up only 3 to 1274.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +269 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +404 to +369. We dropped a +444 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-5-06 The S&P closed down 9 to 1271. Looks like the holiday effect worked; up market on Monday. They say the market "goes the wrong way" on holidays because the pros take the day off and the amateurs are trading. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -802 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [rose, after hours figures] from +378 to +404. We dropped a -933 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P, after an ARM signal on Monday, gives a FIRE signal (second half of an ARM&FIRE SELL signal). This completes our Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 6/29/06. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols.  The result of this round trip was -0.2%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +2.0%. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. The Results_History has been updated for the round trip. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-3-06 In a holiday-shortened day, the S&P closed up 10 to 1280.  They say the market "goes the wrong way" on holidays because the pros take the day off and the amateurs are trading. In other words, perhaps the direction of the market will be down Wednesday.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +372 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +405 to +378. We dropped a +508 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in 5DMA, while it was above the upper threshold of +2.5, while the S&P did not decline, gives a Short-term ARM signal (first half of an ARM&FIRE SELL signal). Any decline Wednesday in S&P will give a sell signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.