7-30-04 Dear Reader:  In a dull day, the S&P closed up 1 to 1102.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +175 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -42 to +143. We dropped a -749 from the average from six days ago, giving us positive bias today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now in the SELL range, being above the upper threshold of +19. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have resumed updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 4; update of that table shows we are below the 40 week MA line). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month, and that  table shows we have just slipped below the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line for the first time this year. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are STILL advancing. Several talking heads on TV announce that we are below the 200DMA (implying big trouble ahead or end of BULL market??, they never say)), but they never say the important point I just made. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA (40WMA) line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. I still see about 10 weeks before we get close to a BEAR market signal, PROVIDED the S&P500 does not go lower than the recent minor closing low of  1084 on 5/17/04. The danger point (for an end to the BULL market) is at approximately 1050 on S&P500 (these data will change week-by-week, stay tuned). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets (see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +22.6% (+27.1% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ  Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-29-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P closed up 5 to 1100.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +665 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -209 to -42. We dropped a -168 from the average from six days ago, giving us positive bias today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping negative numbers from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.

7-28-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was down most of the day, teasing us again at the 1084 level. The failure to break below 1084 is actually bullish (and we're keeping our fingers crossed). The S&P closed up a fraction to 1095. Since S&P was below 1084 during the day, and then closed up, some call this a bottom reversal (could mean the end of Intermediate Down Trend); let us hope that that is true.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -129 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -409 to -209. We dropped a -1130 from the average from six days ago, giving us a huge positive bias today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping negative numbers from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.

7-27-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was up all day and closed up booming, at 1095, up 11. But the advance-decline volume told a less enthusiastic story; it was not up sufficiently to bring the 5DMA up until after the close.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +579 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -419 to -409. We dropped a +532 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping negative numbers from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA did not turn up until after the close, so we got  a BUY signal, but cant act on it until tomorrow. We will be buying with 6% of available funds for equities, following our Long-Purchase State Dirty rule: 50%, 25%,12%, 6%, as this is fourth buy signal in a row. The total we will have bought so far is 50+25+12+6= 93% of available funds for equities. We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. If you end up needing to buy less than 100 shares of any of these and dont like small lots, just buy 100 SPY as first priority, then QQQ, then IWM. The Market State Page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

We are going to be watching to see if we should activate the Plunge rule in an Intermediate Down Trend (IDT), such as we are in now. We recently had three buy signals in a row (without a sell signal) and the market continues to go down. We wont know if it would be a good idea until the market rallies enough to cancel the IDT flag. Presently the Plunge rule is used only in a BEAR market.

7-26-04 Dear Reader:  Is this market toying with us or what? The important level is 1084, so where does the S&P close today? at 1084.1!, down 2.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -576 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -335 to -419. We dropped a -159 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now officially over-sold, since the 5DMA is below -400. No signals today.

7-23-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was again flirting with that important level of 1084 (that was recent low on 5/17/04). The S&P closed down 11 to 1086.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -749 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -250 to -335. We dropped a -327 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Watch the S&P closely; if it closes below 1084, then we are pushing closer to a BEAR market signal. Remember we dont get the signal until both the 40 week MA turns down (see next paragraph) AND the S&P500 is below that 40WMA line. We have been below the line for two weeks, but the 40WMA will not turn down until we get below 1040.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have resumed updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 4; update of that table shows we are below the 40 week MA line). [Note: Several previous weeks' Table 4 contained an arithmetical error, which has been corrected today and Table 4 now shows the correct values, and shows we have been below the 40WMA line for only two weeks.] Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows we are still above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are STILL advancing. Several talking heads on TV announce that we are below the 200DMA (implying big trouble ahead or end of BULL market??, they never say)), but they never say the important point I just made. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA (40WMA) line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. I still see about 10 weeks before we get close to a BEAR market signal, PROVIDED the S&P500 does not go lower than the recent minor closing low of  1084 on 5/17/04. The danger point (for an end to the BULL market) is at approximately 1038 on S&P500 (these data will change week-by-week, stay tuned). I am certain that HERE is the only place where a BEAR market will be announced when the mathematical calculations indicate that a BEAR market has arrived. We will again put out a nation-wide press release, but again we expect to be ignored and not reported. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets (see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +20.9% (+24.9% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ  Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-22-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was down  in the AM then, after bouncing off our important level of 1084 (that was recent low on 5/17/04), turned and closed up 3 to 1097.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -168 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -291 to -250. We dropped a -370 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Friday-Monday next due to dropping negative numbers from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.

7-21-04 Dear Reader:  One step forward, two steps back. The market is still definitely in that Intermediate Down Trend (IDT). The S&P was down 15 to 1094, breaking the 1100 level for the first time since May. This was a test of the bogey set two days ago, before our BUY signal of yesterday, and the test failed. If you could not see yesterday's Figure 1, I apologize, I'm trying to learn this software and obviously do not have it mastered yet.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1130 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -124 to -291. We dropped a -297 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Thursday-Monday next due to dropping negative numbers from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.

7-20-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was up 8 to 1109. This is an important rally, because the S&P held its previous minor low of 1084 (cross our fingers that it doesnt break it in the near future). In Fig 1. below see the low at 1084 in May 2004, and data up until today. BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +532 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -208 to -124. We dropped a +115 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping negative numbers from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28 (we are in Oscillatory state), give us a Short-Term BUY signal. This is the third BUY signal in a row. We have Long-purchase State Dirty, so we buy today with 12% of available funds (the first two buys were with 50% and 25% more) so now we are 87% invested. We bought equal quantities of SPY, IWM and QQQ. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. This third buy signal illustrates the value of the Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) rule forcing Long-Purchase State (LPS) to Dirty, as long as IDT is true. If LPS were Clean, we would have invested 100% of available funds for equities on the first buy signal, leaving nothing in reserve for other buy signals which may occur, before we get the SELL signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. We have updated the Market State page for the BUY signal.

Figure 1. S&P500 for Recent Months

7-19-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was down a fraction to 1101.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -159 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -183 to -208. We dropped a -37 from the average from six days ago, giving us a small positive/neutral bias today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We were SO close to a third buy signal in a row, but the S&P did not close up and the 5DMA did not close up, but was very close right up until the end of trading.

7-16-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was down by 5 to 1101.  

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -327 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -58 to -183. We dropped a +299 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive/neutral bias Monday due to dropping a small negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Yesterday's Arm signal expired since we had no upturn in S&P today. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have resumed updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 4; update of that table shows we are below the 40 week MA line). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows we are still above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are STILL advancing. Several talking heads on TV announce that we are below the 200DMA (implying big trouble ahead or end of BULL market??, they never say)), but they never say the important point I just made. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. I still see more than 12 weeks before we get close to a BEAR market signal, provided the S&P500 does not go lower than the recent minor closing low of  1084 on 5/17/04. The danger point (for an end to the BULL market) is at approximately 1030-1050 on S&P500 (these data will change week-by-week, stay tuned). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets (see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +22.5% (+26.9% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.  

7-15-04 Dear Reader:  This is the summer doldrums, not the summer rally. The S&P was down by 5 to 1107.  

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -370 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -146 to -58. We dropped a -806 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a negative bias Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in the 5DMA, without upturn in S&P, gives us an ARM signal (first half of Arm & Fire BUY signal). Any upturn tomorrow in S&P will give second half of signal and complete a BUY signal, number three in the series.

7-14-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was down by 4 to 1112.  

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -297 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -32 to -146. We dropped a +269 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.

7-13-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was up by 1 to 1115.  

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +114 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -196 to -32. We dropped a -704 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.

7-12-04 Dear Reader:  After being down most of the day, at the close the S&P was up by 2 to 1114.  

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -37 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -238 to -196. We dropped a -244 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.

7-9-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was up by 4 to 1113. Repeat Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +299 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -466 to -238. We dropped a -846 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping negative numbers from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal, number 2 in the series. We bought with 25% more of available funds, equally divided between SPY, QQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. On the BUY signal of 7/7/04 we bought with only 50% of available funds for equities, because the Long Purchase State was Dirty. Now we are 75% invested. If there is a BUY signal #3 we will Buy with 12% more of available funds. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have resumed updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 4; update of that table shows we are below the 40 week MA line). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows we are still above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are STILL advancing. Several talking heads on TV announce that we are below the 200DMA (implying big trouble ahead or end of BULL market??, they never say)), but they never say the important point I just made. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. I still see more than 12 weeks before we get close to a BEAR market signal, provided the S&P500 does not go lower than the recent minor closing low of  1084 on 5/17/04. The minor danger point (for an end to the BULL market) is at approximately 1030 on S&P500, the major danger point is at S&P=997 (these data will change week-by-week, stay tuned). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets (see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +23.8% (+29.8% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.  

7-8-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was down by 9 to 1109.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -806 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -179 to -466. We dropped a +629 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Friday-Tuesday due to dropping negative numbers from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today we see why the Long-Purchase state being Dirty during Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) is needed. It means we invested only 50% of available equity funds on yesterday's BUY signal. In a few days we will get a repeat BUY signal, and then we can invest another 25% of available funds. A third signal will get 12%, etc, so we never run out of $$ to invest, no matter what the market does, during this IDT. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. No signals today.

7-7-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was up by 2 to 1118. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +269 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -202 to -179. We dropped a +156 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives us a Short-term BUY signal. Since the Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) is still True, we have the Long-Purchase state as Dirty, so we invest only 50% of available funds for equities. We bought equal sums of SPY, QQQ, and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. This was the best kind of BUY signal, coming on a small upturn in S&P500, so that we get almost yesterday's closing price, which was the recent minor low.

IDT Comment: S&P500 shows lower highs and lower lows over a period of a few months; that is the formula for an Intermediate Down Trend, please see Table 1 below. On the bright side, the market has the opportunity now to rally (BUY signal today), and show us a higher bottom, if the last entry in Table 1 (for 7/6/04) is truly a minor low. Then we need only to exceed the last closing minor high of 1144 on 6/23 and the IDT will be changed to False.

7-6-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was down by 9 to 1116. The close below the bogey of 1125 set on 6/14/04, before we had the last BUY signal on 6/16/04, changes the market state from Run-5 to Oscillatory, which changes the thresholds at which BUY and SELL signals occur, and generally indicates a weaker market. I am glad we got out on Short-term basis on 6/24/04. This is how we beat the S&P by 7% per year over the most-recent 10 yr period--by being out of the market when it is going down. Long-term investors should not worry. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The Market State page has been updated for the State change.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -704 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -102 to -202. We dropped a -206 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold (-28) for a BUY signal in Oscillatory State, and could get a BUY signal any day. No Buy/Sell signals today.

7-2-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was down by 4 to 1125. We are right on the bogey of 1125 set on 6/14/04 before we had the last BUY signal on 6/16/04. A close below that bogey will drop the Market State from Run-5 to Oscillatory, which changes the thresholds at which BUY and SELL signals occur, and generally indicates a weaker market. I am glad we got out on Short-term basis on 6/24/04. Long-term investors should not worry. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -244 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -73 to -102. We dropped a -96 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Monday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold (-5) for a BUY signal, and could get a BUY signal any day. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have resumed updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 4; update of that table shows we are below the 40 week MA line). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows we are still above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are still advancing. Several talking heads on TV announce that we are below the 200DMA (implying big trouble ahead or end of BULL market??, they never say)), but they never say the important point I just made. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. I still see more than 12 weeks before we get close to a BEAR market signal, provided the S&P500 does not go lower than the recent minor closing low of  1084 on 5/17/04. The minor danger point (for an end to the BULL market) is at approximately 1030 on S&P500, the major danger point is at S&P=997 (these data will change week-by-week, stay tuned). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets (see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +25.2% (+32.6% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-1-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P was down hard by 12 to 1129. We are flirting with the bogey of 1125 set on 6/14/04 before we had the last BUY signal on 6/16/04. A close below that bogey will drop the Market State from Run-5 to Oscillatory, which changes the thresholds at which BUY and SELL signals occur, and generally indicates a weaker market. I am glad we got out on Short-term basis on 6/24/04. Long-term investors should not worry. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -846 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +61 to -73. We dropped a -179 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Friday-Monday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold (-5) for a BUY signal, and could get a BUY signal any day. Today was a sterile SELL signal since the S&P and 5DMA both turned down, while 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, and is sterile because we had no positions on. We do not record sterile actions on the Market State page.