6-30-06 The S&P meandered today and closed down by 2 to 1271.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +423 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +356 to +405. We dropped a +176 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above +400 in 5DMA so we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is once again above the 200DMA line, indicating we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week. We are now above the 200DMA line. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and that the S&P is above that 9MMA average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40WMA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The S&P still closed above the bogey, which is at 1215.3, so we have avoided the 50% BEAR market signal this week. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of Jul 7, the bogey is 1228.8, so we are quite far away from that. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +4.2%, using S&P as the basis, or +2.1% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-29-06 The S&P rose by 17 to 1273.  Several signals today including Short-term BUY signal (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1582 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -70 to +356. We dropped a -544 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above +400 in 5DMA, at which we say the market is over bought [changed with over-night figures]. The advancing volume was more than 10 times the declining volume, which is a very rare event and usually indicates a top. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The violation of the SELL bogey, set at 1252.2 on 6/21/06, raises the Market State from OSCILLatory to Run-5. Quoting from the Glossary:  "if the market state changes from OSCILLATORY to Run-5 and the RunLight BUY signal occur on the same day, the RunLight BUY signal is to be ignored." The rules for a RunLight BUY signal were also fulfilled. The Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) line was broken with today's action, creating a Intermediate term BUY signal. The Long-purchase State (LPS) changes to Clean with the IDT change, meaning we can once again buy with 100% of available funds for equities on a BUY signal. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY, the Run-5, LPS and IDT changes. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. We had to cover the short sales of SPY and QQQQ let out on 6/27 since the bogey of 1252.2 set 6/21/06 plus 1.5 S&P points was violated. We had a loss on these but we dont report them in the Results, since it would distort the regular trading record and few people are interested in short sales.

6-28-06 The S&P rose by 7 to 1246.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +444 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +51 to -70. We dropped a +1046 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Short sales will not be in any jeapordy unless S&P closes above the bogey of 1252.2 set 6/21/06 plus 1.5 S&P points.

6-27-06 The S&P fell by 11 to 1239. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -933 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +202 to +51. We dropped a -178 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought yesterday. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. We had a strong suspicion this would be a loser, so we were glad the System called for only 50% buy; the result of this round trip was -0.5%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +2.1%. The BUY bogey of 1244.5 set on 6/23/06 was violated, so the Market State drops from Run-5 to OSCILLatory. This changes the thresholds in 5DMA at which signals are given and allows us now to make short sales. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL and OSCILLatory State. The Results_History has been updated for the round trip. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Since we are now in OSCILLatory State, we may sell short. We sold some SPY and QQQQ short.

6-26-06 The S&P rose by 6 to 1251. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +508 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -83 to +202. We dropped a -917 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. We buy with only 50% because the Long-Purchase State is Dirty, which it is because the Intermediate Down Trend flag is True. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-23-06 The S&P fell by 1 to 1245.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +176 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -274 to -83. We dropped a -776 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and, while the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating both caution for an approaching BEAR market and a Short-term Buying opportunity, we do have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week. We are now below the 200DMA line, so we are close to BEAR market territory. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and that the S&P is above that 9MMA average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40WMA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The S&P still closed above the bogey, which is at 1237.9, so we have avoided the 50% BEAR market signal this week. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of Jun 30, the bogey is 1215.3, so we are quite far away from that. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +2.0%, using S&P as the basis, or -0.1% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-22-06 The S&P fell by 7 to 1246. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -544 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +197 to -274. We dropped a +1807 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM that we bought on 6/14/06 and 6/21/06.  Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. It was not surprising that we got a sell signal the day after a buy signal, since we were at a high value of 5DMA and had had a run of several strong days. The round trip result was a GAIN of  0.5%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +2.6%. The SELL has been noted on the Market State page. The Results_History 04- has also been updated for the trades. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. I wish we could sell this market short, but we are in Run-5 State, and the rules do not allow short sales in a Run state. We have to have a busted buy signal, i.e., a market decline below a buy bogey, without a sell signal, before the State drops to OSCILLatory, and we can then sell short.

6-21-06 No uncertainty today. The S&P boomed ahead and closed up 12 at 1252. Short-term repeat BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1046 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +116 to +197. We dropped a +644 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P, after yesterday's ARM signal, gives a FIRE signal to complete the BUY signal. We bought with 25% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM.  Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. We buy with only 25% because we are scaling-in purchases, which we do because the Long-Purchase State is Dirty, which it is because the Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) flag is True. The IDT trend line shows a resistance for S&P at about 1260, which is very close. We would expect a sell signal any day, since we are also above the upper threshold of +2.5 in 5DMA. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY (first BUY in this series was 6/14/06). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-20-06 Back and forth around the zero change line.Thought we might get a buy signal but it didnt come. The S&P closed unchanged at 1240.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -178 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -158 to +116. We dropped a -1549 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in 5DMA, while the S&P did not turn up, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a repeat ARM signal, the first half of an ARM&FIRE buy signal. An upturn in S&P tomorrow will complete the signal for a repeat buy (first one was 6/14/06). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-19-06 The S&P closed down by 11 to 1240. BEAR Market alert (signal pending-see column of 6/12).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -917 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -230 to -158. We dropped a -1278 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA, while the S&P did not turn up, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives an ARM signal, the first half of an ARM&FIRE buy signal. An upturn in S&P tomorrow will complete the signal for a repeat buy (first one was 6/14/06). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-16-06 The S&P closed down by 5 to 1252. BEAR Market alert (signal pending-see column of 6/12).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -776 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -154 to -230. We dropped a -394 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA did not generate a sell signal because the 5DMA was not above the upper threshold of +2.5 at the time. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and, while the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating both caution for an approaching BEAR market and a Short-term Buying opportunity, we do have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week. We are now below the 200DMA line, so we are close to BEAR market territory. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and that the S&P is above that 9MMA average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40WMA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. We have been anticipating Friday all week to see if S&P would close at 1241.5 or below (this week's bogey) and give a 50% BEAR market signal. It did not close that low and so we have avoided the BEAR market signal this week. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of Jun 23, the bogey is 1237.9. We are only 14 S&P points above that today. Given the current market weakness, that level seems like a definite possibility. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +2.6%, using S&P as the basis, or 0.4% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-15-06  A blistering blast-off. Haven't seen a gain like this in a very long time. The S&P closed up by 26 to 1256. Yesterday's Short-term BUY signal is looking good after our being OUT of the severe decline since 5/30/06. BEAR Market alert (signal pending-see column of 6/12).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1807 (million shares). The up volume was more than 10 times the down volume, which is a very rare occurrance, and could signal a Short-term top is near (everyone cant be right). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -602 to -154. We dropped a -430 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-14-06  The S&P closed up by 6 to 1230. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). BEAR Market alert (signal pending-see column of 6/12).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +644 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -862 to -602. We dropped a -660 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below -400 in 5DMA, where we say the market is over sold. We have violated the BULL market bogey of 1241.5, shown in table in last Friday's column. If the market closes this week below 1241.5, we will have a 50% BEAR market signal. The bogey is the value we will drop when we calculate the 200DMA on Friday. Thus if we are below that number, the 200D average will drop. And we are below the 200DMA line (see Friday's table) at 1264.4. When the 200DMA line turns down and we are below the 200DMA line, that used to be our BEAR market signal (see column 6/12/06). The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. We buy with only 50% because the Long-Purchase State is Dirty, which it is because the Intermediate Down Trend flag is True. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-13-06  More of the same. The S&P closed down by 13 to 1224. BEAR Market alert (signal pending-see yesterday's column).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1549 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -680 to -862. We dropped a -640 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below -400 in 5DMA, where we say the market is over sold. We have violated the BULL market bogey of 1241.5, shown in table in last Friday's column. If the market closes this week below 1241.5, we will have a 50% BEAR market signal. The bogey is the value we will drop when we calculate the 200DMA on Friday. Thus if we are below that number, the 200D average will drop. And we are below the 200DMA line (see Friday's table) at 1264.4. When the 200DMA line turns down and we are below the 200DMA line, that used to be our BEAR market signal (see column 6/12/06). No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-12-06  The S&P closed down by 16 to 1236. BEAR Market alert (signal pending-see next paragraphs).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1278 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -693 to -680 [changed from fall to rise overnight]. We dropped a -1342 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below -400 in 5DMA, where we say the market is over sold. We have violated the BULL market bogey of 1241.5, shown in table in last Friday's column. If the market closes this week below 1241.5, we will have a 50% BEAR market signal. The bogey is the value we will drop when we calculate the 200DMA on Friday. Thus if we are below that number, the 200D average will drop. And we are below the 200DMA line (see Friday's table) at 1264.4. When the 200DMA line turns down and we are below the 200DMA line, that used to be our BEAR market signal. However, I will now quote from Friday's column:

"I need to discuss an apparent approaching conflict between the forty week moving average (40 WMA) and the nine month moving averages (9MMA) for a BEAR market signal. The 40WMA is looking like it may give a BEAR market signal as early as this coming week. The 9MMA cant register a signal until the end of a month, so it wont register a signal until the end of June or later. In recent past we have seen that the 9MMA correctly AVOIDED giving a BEAR market signal, while the 40WMA gave such a signal. This happened on 10/15/2004 and 10/5/2005 (see Long-term Investor's page, Table 1), where we got a 40WMA BEAR market signal, only to be reversed a month later with a new BULL market signal. The 9MMA never signalled a BEAR market. For Long-term Investors, that kind of whip-saw is not welcome (if only for tax reasons). It looks like this may happen again. Therefore we are recommending that long term investors sell out only 50% of their holdings on the 40WMA BEAR market signal (we're calling this the 50% BEAR market signal) and sell the remaining half on confirmation by the 9MMA, which will take until the end of June or July. Those who remember the BEAR market of 9/22/2000 to 4/25/2003 will not want to repeat that. The greatest investing error that individuals and advisors can make is not Selling a BEAR market signal. Most advisors dont sell because they dont believe that anyone can time the market. This entire web site, with its complete12-20 year record of buys and sells presented here, shows that is not true (see Summary Table (Short-term) and Long-term Investor's page, Table 1)."

No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms; we've updated the Glossary for the BEAR market (50% rule).

6-9-06  The S&P closed down by 6 to 1252. This violates the double bottom at S&P 1256 mentioned the last two days and confirms the Intermediate Down Trend pattern.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -394 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -548 to -693. We dropped a +335 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below -400 in 5DMA, where we say the market is over sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and, while the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating both caution for an approaching BEAR market and a Short-term Buying opportunity, we do have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week. We are now below the 200DMA line, so we are close to BEAR market territory. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and that the S&P is above that 9MMA average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40WMA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of Jun 16, the bogey is 1241.5. We are only 11 S&P points above that today. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +2.6%, using S&P as the basis, or 0.5% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

I need to discuss an apparent approaching conflict between the 40 WMA and the 9MMA's for a BEAR market signal. The 40WMA is looking like it may give a BEAR market signal as early as this coming week. The 9MMA cant register a signal until the end of a month, so it wont register a signal until the end of June or later. In recent past we have seen that the 9MMA correctly AVOIDED giving a BEAR market signal, while the 40WMA gave such a signal. This happened on 10/15/2004 and 10/5/2005 (see Long-term Investor's page, Table 1), where we got a 40WMA BEAR market signal, only to be reversed a month later with a new BULL market signal. The 9MMA never signalled a BEAR market. For Long-term Investors, that kind of whip-saw is not welcome (if only for tax reasons). It looks like this may happen again. Therefore we are recommending that long term investors sell out only 50% of their holdings on the 40WMA BEAR market signal and sell the remaining half on confirmation by the 9MMA, which will take until the end of June or July. Those who remember the BEAR market of 9/22/2000 to 4/25/2003 will not want to repeat that. The greatest investing error that individuals and advisors can make is not Selling a BEAR market signal. Most advisors dont sell because they dont believe that anyone can time the market. This entire web site, with its complete12-20 year record of buys and sells presented here, shows that is not true (see Summary Table (Short-term) and Long-term Investor's page, Table 1).

6-8-06  The S&P closed up by 2 to 1258. This is called a bottom reversal; a market moving even lower in the day and then closing up. The Intermediate Down Trend we discussed yesterday may be just a market double bottom.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -430 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -230 to -548. We dropped a +1158 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below -400 in 5DMA, where we say the market is over sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-7-06  Another loss, the S&P closed down by 8 to 1256.1. The 200 DMA line is at 1264 and the BULL bogey is at 1242 (see last Friday's column). If the S&P falls below the BULL bogey, we could have a new BEAR market.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -660 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +169 to -230. We dropped a +1334 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  Since the S&P closed below 1256.6, the Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) flag becomes True (although this could just be a double bottom). When the IDT is true, we scale in purchases when we get a buy signal, buying only 50% on first buy signal, 25% on second, etc. The Long-Purchase State, formerly fixed as Clean when IDT is False, now may change if market behavior warrants. No other signals today. The Market State page has been updated for the IDT. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-6-06  A nice recovery at the close. After being down significantly during the day, the S&P closed down by just 1 point to 1264. The 200 DMA line is at 1264 and the BULL bogey is at 1242 (see Friday's column). If the S&P falls below the BULL bogey, we could have a new BEAR market. And we have a bit more down side to go before we get a buy signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -640 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +56 to +169. We dropped a -1205 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Even though the S&P and 5DMA turned up, we were not below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA, so no signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-5-06  The S&P fell hard by 23 to 1265. The 200 DMA line is at 1264 and the BULL bogey is at 1242 (see Friday's column). If the S&P falls below the BULL bogey, we could have a new BEAR market. And we have a bit more down side to go before we get a buy signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1342 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +478 to +56. We dropped a +1770 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA and the S&P both turned down, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, so we get a sell signal, but it is a sterile since we have no positions on. We sold out on 5/30/06. The Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) Channel is looking like a good possibility again. If the S&P closes below 1256.6, the IDT flag will become True. When the IDT is true, we scale in purchases when we get a buy signal, buying only 50% on first buy signal, 25% on second, etc. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-2-06  The S&P rose by 3 to 1288.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +335 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +660 to +478. We dropped a +1245 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. Since the 5DMA turned down, but the S&P didnt, we would say an ARM (first half of ARM&FIRE sell signal) occurred, but it will be a sterile signal if the FIRE comes tomorrow since we have no positions on. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. But we are only seven S&P points above that nine month MA line, so we are close to BEAR market territory. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40 week MA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey (it is only 25 points above that line today). The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +5.6%, using S&P as the basis, or 3.9% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-1-06  In another strong advance, the S&P rose by 16 to 1286.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1158 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +332 to +660. We dropped a -484 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. The violation of the previous bogey while in OSCILLatory State, raises the Market State to Run-5. That changes the thresholds in 5DMA where the buy/sell signals are given. No buy signal is generated. The Market State page has been updated for the RUN-5. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short sellers paragraph. We had to cover our short sale of 5/30/06 since the previous bogey at 1280.2 (set on 5/26/06) was exceeded by more than 1.5 S&P points. We took a loss, but no short sales are recorded in the results history, since that would distort the results the majority of readers are interested in.