6-30-04 Dear Reader: We saw little reaction to the Fed interest rate announcement. The S&P was up by 5 to 1141.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +629 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +84 to +61. We dropped a +746 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Thursday-Monday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. This is not a BUY signal because we were not below the lower threshold in 5DMA of -5 yesterday. No signals today.

6-29-04 Dear Reader: Another boring day with little action, as traders wait on the Fed interest rate announcement. The S&P was up by 3 to 1136.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +156 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +131 to +84. We dropped a +390 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

6-28-04 Dear Reader: In a repeat of recent behavior, the S&P was up in AM and closed down by 1 to 1134.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -206 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +132 to +131. We dropped a -201 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. With the simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, today was a sterile SELL signal, sterile because we had no positions on to sell. We dont record such sells in the Market State page. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-25-04 Dear Reader: In a mirror image of recent behavior, the S&P was up in AM and closed down by 5 to 1136. The decline, while small, makes us feel good about yesterday's Short-term SELL signal.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -96 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +216 to +132. We dropped a +327 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Monday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.  

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have resumed updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 4; update of that table shows we are below the 40 week MA line). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows we are still above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are still advancing. Several talking heads on TV announce that we are below the 200DMA (implying big trouble ahead or end of BULL market??, they never say)), but they never say the important point I just made. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. I still see more than 12 weeks before we get close to a BEAR market signal, provided the S&P500 does not go lower than the recent minor closing low of  1084 on 5/17/04. The minor danger point (for an end to the BULL market) is at approximately 1050 on S&P500, the major danger point is at S&P=988 (these data will change week-by-week, stay tuned). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets (see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +26.3% (+33.8% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-24-04 Dear Reader: The S&P index fell by 3 to 1141. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -179 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +282 to +216. We dropped a +150 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Friday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. Since we invested only 50% of available funds, this round trip from the BUY signal on 6/16 netted us a gain of 7.9*(.5) S&P points, or 0.35%. This brings our gain for the year to +5.1 %, compared to the un-managed S&P500's gain of 2.7%. Today's action verifies my prediction yesterday that this run's profit would be determined by what was gained yesterday. Yesterday's gain of 10 points was reduced by today's loss of 3, and our profit for the run was 7.9 points. We have updated the Market State and Results_Hist-04 pages. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.  

This is a second example when our new proposed rule saved us from a loss. That is, when the S&P on 6/23/04 closed at 1144, it broke the previous bogey of 1142.1 set on 6/8 by more than 1.5 points. This would ordinarily signal a RunLite BUY signal, but the new rule says ignore RunLite signals when in Intermediate Down Trend. A purchase on 6/23 would have been sold today at loss. I have added this rule to the Glossary as permanent (could still be modified if necessary). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers Paragraph: Since we are in Run-5 State (see Market_State) we would not be allowed to sell short on this signal, but we do a notional short-sale (on paper only) to track the Short-sale state. The bogey for that is the high on 6/23/04 at 1144. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-23-04 Dear Reader: The S&P index repeated the pattern of recent days, by declining early and then closing up. The index rose nicely by 10 to 1144. It may turn out that almost our entire profit on this run (since our BUY signal on 6/16) was made today, thus justifying our statement on 6/21 that this would be another test of the necessity of BOTH the S&P and the 5DMA to turn down at the same time to give a SELL signal.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +746 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +157 to +282. We dropped a +119 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Thursday-Friday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior.  Yesterday's Arm signal (first half of Arm & Fire SELL signal) expired, since the S&P500 did not decline today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. No signals today.

6-22-04 Dear Reader: The S&P index rose 4 to 1134.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +390 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +231 to +157. We dropped a +758 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday-Friday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior.  Today was an Arm signal (first half of Arm & Fire SELL signal), since the 5DMA turned down but the S&P500 did not. Tomorrow any down close in S&P will generate a Fire signal, completing a Short-term SELL signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-21-04 Dear Reader: The S&P index fell 5 to 1130. It may look like a sell signal, but it wasn't; this will be a good test of the fact that we need both the 5DMA  AND the S&P500 to turn down at the same time, or by the Arm & Fire concept. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -201 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +104 to +231 (thus preventing the SELL signal). We dropped a -833 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday-Friday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We now are above the upper threshold of +2.5 and could get a SELL signal any day. No signals today.

6-18-04 Dear Reader: The S&P index rose 3 to 1135.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +327 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +85 to +104. We dropped a +230 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Monday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We now are above the upper threshold of +2.5 and could get a SELL signal any day. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have resumed updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 4; update of that table shows we are below the 40 week MA line). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows we are still above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are still advancing. Several talking heads on TV announce that we are below the 200DMA (implying big trouble ahead or end of BULL market??, they never say)), but they never say the important point I just made. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. I still see more than 12 weeks before we get close to a BEAR market signal, provided the S&P500 does not go lower than the recent minor closing low of  1084 on 5/17/04. The minor danger point (for an end to the BULL market) is at approximately 1050 on S&P500, the major danger point is at S&P=988 (these data will change week-by-week, stay tuned). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets (see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +26.3% (+32.4% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-17-04 Dear Reader: The S&P closed with a small loss after being down much more during the day. The index fell 2 to 1132.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +150 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -87 to +85. We dropped a -707 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a negative bias Friday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. We now are above the upper threshold of +2.5 and could get a SELL signal any day. No signals today.

6-16-04 Dear Reader: The S&P eked out a small gain at the close to give us a BUY signal (see next paragraph). The index rose 2 to 1134.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +119 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -111 to -87. We dropped a -5 from the average from six days ago, giving us a neutral/positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of about -5 (we are in Run-5 mode), gives a Short-Term BUY signal.  Since we are in an Intermediate Down Trend, the Long-Purchase State is Dirty, meaning we invest only 50% of available cash, and hold the balance for the possible repeat BUY signals that may come in the days ahead. We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQ, and IWM (see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary page for any unfamiliar terms.

6-15-04 Dear Reader: The S&P rose 7 to 1132. Very close today to a BUY signal, maybe tomorrow.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +758 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -63 to -111. We dropped a whopping +1000 from the average from six days ago, giving us a huge negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold for a buy signal. An up close in the S&P500 with an upturn in the 5DMA will give a Short-Term BUY signal. No signals today.

6-14-04 Dear Reader: The S&P fell 11 to 1125. It is days like today we are glad that the Short-Term System keeps us out of the market. BUY signal approaching.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -833 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +215 to -63. We dropped a +557 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold for a buy signal. An up close in the S&P500 with an upturn in the 5DMA will give a Short-Term BUY signal. No signals today.

6-10-04 Dear Reader: On the day before a holiday for ceremonies for Pres. Reagan, the markets were very slow, the S&P rose 5 to 1136.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +230 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +20 to +215. We dropped a -745 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a negative bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have resumed updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 4; update of that table shows we are below the 40 week MA line). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows we are still above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are still advancing. Several talking heads on TV announce that we are below the 200DMA (implying big trouble ahead or end of BULL market??, they never say)), but they never say the important point I just made. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. I still see more than 12 weeks before we get close to a BEAR market signal, provided the S&P500 does not go lower than the recent minor low of  1084 on 5/17/04. The minor danger point (for an end to the BULL market) is at approximately 1050 on S&P500, the major danger point is at S&P=988 (these data will change week-by-week, stay tuned). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +26.4% (+32.9% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-9-04 Dear Reader: The S&P fell 11 to 1131.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -707 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +199 to +20. We dropped a +188 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today (but see next paragraph).

On 6/7/04 we had a RunLite BUY signal, but I didn't point it out, since I didnt trust it while we were in Intermediate Down Trend (IDT). Today would then be a SELL signal since S&P and 5DMA both turned down, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +28. Since the IDT  is still true, we would have used only 50% of available funds. This would create a loss of 0.4%. Change in the Intermediate Down Trend will occur when the S&P shows a bottom that is above the bottom of 1084 on 5/17/04. The S&P has already broken through the down trendline to the upside, which is one requirement to turn the IDT to false. It looks like we may need a rule to distrust RunLite signals while IDT is true; this will not be known for sure until we have more examples as data points. Meanwhile, I am going to distrust RunLite signals until IDT becomes false, and do notional trades (on paper) only. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-8-04 Dear Reader: The S&P rose 2 to 1142.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -5 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +194 to +199. We dropped a -29 from the average from six days ago, giving us a slight positive bias today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

6-7-04 Dear Reader: The S&P boomed ahead by 18 to 1141.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1000 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +16 to +194. We dropped a +110 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive/neutral bias Tuesday due to dropping a small negative number from the average from six days prior. This is the kind of day that many market technicians wait for, as the up volume was more than 10 times the down volume (1100:100). This indicates to some an extreme bullish tone to the market and indicates a short-term topping action. We do not have such a rule in the Field Systems, but I point it out when I see it. No signals today.

Short sellers paragraph. We today see the value of the four point short selling rule. If we did not have that rule, we may have shorted some funds on 5/28, which was the last SELL signal. The Short-sale State was Clean, meaning we were permitted to sell short, but since the market closed down by less than four S&P pints, we did not sell anything short. If we had, we would have been creamed with today's vigorous advance. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-4-04 Dear Reader: The S&P was up 6 to 1123.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +557 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +35 to +16. We dropped a +652 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Monday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have resumed updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 4; update of that table shows we are below the 40 week MA line, but the 200DMA is still advancing). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows we are still above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are still advancing. Several talking heads on TV announce that we are below the 200DMA (implying big trouble ahead or end of BULL market??, they never say)), but they never say the important point I just made. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. I still see more than 12 weeks before we get close to a BEAR market signal, provided the S&P500 does not go lower than the recent minor low of  1084 on 5/17/04. The minor danger point (for an end to the BULL market) is at approximately 1050 on S&P500, the major danger point is at S&P=988 (these data will change week-by-week, stay tuned). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +25.9% (+32.3% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-3-04 Dear Reader: The S&P was down 8 to 1117.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -745 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +236 to +35. We dropped a +260 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

6-2-04 Dear Reader: The S&P was up 4 to 1125.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +188 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +434 to +236. We dropped a +1180 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias today. We will have a negative bias the next three days due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today. We broke the bogey established on 5/27 of 1121. by more than 1 point, so our Market State goes from Oscillatory to Run-5. This changes the thresholds at which signals from the 5DMA are generated. The Market State Page has been updated for the Run-5 state.

6-1-04 Dear Reader: The S&P was up a fraction again, to 1121.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -29 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +530 to +434. We dropped a +447 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias the next four days due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.