6-30-05 Dear Readers: The S&P flirted with our buy bogey and closed down 9 to 1191. We are close to the buy bogey of 1190.7 set 6/27/05. If S&P closes below that, we will drop the Market State to Oscillatory, thus changing the thresholds at which buy/sell signals are given, and it also lends weight to the developing Intermediate-term Down Trend, mentioned here recently.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -593 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -153 to -141 (this occurred after the over-night volume figures came in). We dropped a -653 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. The June end of month report will come tomorrow.

6-29-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed down 2 to 1200.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +78 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -132 to -153. We dropped a +184 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-28-05 Dear Readers: In a nice rally, the S&P closed up 11 to 1202. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +773 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -323 to -132. We dropped a -181 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. The System bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ, and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. I personally bought with only 50%, just out of caution with an Intermediate Down Trend possibly looming (see column 6/24/05). The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-27-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed down 1 to 1191.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -201 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -309 to -323. We dropped a -134 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA for a buy signal, we can get such a signal when both the 5DMA and S&P turn up. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-24-05 Dear Readers: The good guys got whacked again. The S&P closed down 9 to 1192. We could be toying with another Intermediate Down Trend (IDT). The previous minor low was 1197.3 on 6/7/05. Today's close of 1192 is below that, so we have the first part of an IDT (declining minor bottoms) completed. If we get a rally over the next couple weeks that fails to exceed the previous minor high of 1217 set on 6/17/05, we will have declining minor tops. At that point we would declare an IDT as probable, and it will be confirmed if the market goes below the minor low which will be set in the next few days. If IDT changes to True, we scale-in purchases, ie, buy with only 50% of available funds on first buy signal, 25% on second buy signal etc. And speaking of charts, we see on the one year chart of the S&P, a ragged triple top, which is bearish. The three tops (closing prices) are: 1213.5 on 12/30/04, 1225.3 on 3/7/05, 1217 on 6/17/05. The three numbers are not real close together, which is why I called it ragged. The significance of this to our Systems is that we should merely recall this triple top pattern if we see other signs of a BEAR market forming.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -762 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -24 to -309. We dropped a +665 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA for a buy signal, we can get such a signal when both the 5DMA and S&P turn up. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of May, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is once again above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +2.18% using S&P only as the basis, or +1.44% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1132 (bear bogey) for two more weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal, after which we will be safe for about 3 weeks. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-23-05 Dear Readers: Wow, those still holding stocks got whacked today; glad we got out on the Short-term SELL signal on 6/20/05. Long-term Iinvestors should continue to sit tight. The S&P closed down 13 to 1201. And we're going to pay more for gas, to boot.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -653 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +221 to -24. We dropped a +571 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA for a buy signal, we can get such a signal when both the 5DMA and S&P turn up. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-22-05 Dear Readers: If this is the Summer Rally, wake me when it's over. The S&P closed up less than a point to 1214.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +184 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +252 to +221. We dropped a +339 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-21-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed down 2 to 1214.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -181 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +365 to +252. We dropped a +386 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-20-05 Dear Readers: Back to the up and down routine. The S&P closed down a point to 1216. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -134 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +479 to +365. We dropped a +435 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in 5DMA and S&P, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 6/9/05, for one of the longest holding periods for a Short-term trade in recent memory. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The round trip result was +1.3%. That brings our result for the year to -0.3%. The result does not change the Run-5 Market State. The Results_History_04- has been updated for the round trip. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short Sellers Paragraph. We may not sell short this signal because we are in Run-5 Market State, which "does not allow" short sales. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-17-05 Dear Readers: A nice up move, the S&P closed up 6 to 1217.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +665 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +351 to +479. We dropped a +25 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. A Short-term SELL signal will occur when both the S&P and 5DMA turn down simultaneously. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of May, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is once again above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +4.35% using S&P only as the basis, or +3.43% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1132 (bear bogey) for three more weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal, after which we will be safe for about 4 weeks. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-16-05 Dear Readers: The days all seem the same. Up and down with a small up close. The S&P closed up 4 to 1211.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +571 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +324 to +351. We dropped a +435 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Thursday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. A Short-term SELL signal will occur when both the S&P and 5DMA turn down simultaneously. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-15-05 Dear Readers: Again we came close to a sell signal, but the S&P closed up a modest 3 to 1207.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +339 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +233 to +324. We dropped a -117 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. A Short-term SELL signal will occur when both the S&P and 5DMA turn down simultaneously. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-14-05 Dear Readers: After a surprise spike up and down in the PM, the S&P closed up a modest 3 to 1204.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +386 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +176 to +233. We dropped a +102 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. A Short-term SELL signal will occur when both the S&P and 5DMA turn down simultaneously. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-13-05 Dear Readers: The market came down to the zero line at one point, threatening to give us a sell signal, but then recovered; the S&P was up 3 to 1201.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +435 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +104 to +176. We dropped a +74 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-10-05 Dear Readers: The S&P was down by 3 to 1198.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +25 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +16 to +104. We dropped a -411 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P did not generate a SELL signal since the 5DMA did not turn down. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of May, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is once again above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +2.74% using S&P only as the basis, or +1.96% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1129 (bear bogey) for two more weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal, after which we see rising bear bogies for a few weeks, which means it will be harder for the market to stay bullish. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-9-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed up by 6 to 1201.  Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +435 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -27 to +16. We dropped a +216 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-8-05 Dear Readers: After being much higher during the day, the S&P closed down by 3 to 1195.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -117 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +154 to -27. We dropped a +790 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA for a Short-term BUY signal, which could come any day. The simultaneous down turn in S&P and 5DMA gives a Short-term sell signal, but it is sterile since we have no positions on, not even a notional one. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-7-05 Dear Readers: After being much higher during the day, the S&P actually closed down by less than a point to 1197.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +102 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +74 to +154. We dropped a -301 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-6-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed up by 1 to 1198.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +74 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +112 to +74. We dropped a +712 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-3-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed down by 8 to 1196. Looking at a chart of the S&P, we see support both at 1190 and at 1180.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -411 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +337 to +112. We dropped a +712 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous down turn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA is above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a SELL signal, but it is Sterile since we have no positions on. But we do have a notional (on paper only) position, which we purchased at 1202.2 on 6/1/05. Selling today would mean that that was unprofitable, so it is good that the RunLite Flag kept us out of that trade. The RunLite Flag stays at Dirty. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of May, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is once again above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +2.6% using S&P only as the basis, or +2.2% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1129 (bear bogey) for three more weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal, after which we see rising bear bogies for a few weeks, which means it will be harder for the market to stay bullish. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-2-05 Dear Readers: The S&P was up and down by bits all day long, finally closing up by 2 to 1204.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +216 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +222 to +337. We dropped a -360 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-1-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed up by 11 to 1202. Sterile Short-term RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +790 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +59 to +222. We dropped a -26 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The S&P exceeding the previous minor high (bogey) of 1198.8 on 5/29/05 by more than 1.5 points, while the Market State is Run-5, gives a Short-term RunLite BUY signal. But since this is the 2nd RunLite BUY signal in a row, we look to the RunLite Flag on the Market State page and we see the Flag is Dirty, meaning we must ignore this BUY signal, making it a Sterile signal. But we must make a notional buy (on paper only) to keep track. If this notional trade turns out to have been profitable, then the RunLite Flag will change to Clean and we may buy the next RunLite BUY signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.