6-30-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 fell 2 to 975. I thought we might get another BUY signal (sterile) today, but the S&P fell below zero in the last few minutes. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -22 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -205 to -6. We dropped a -1015 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The rise in 5DMA while it was below the lower threshold of -28, gives us an ARM signal today. If the S&P500 turns up tomorrow we will have the second half of an ARM & FIRE BUY signal, but it will be sterile nonetheless, since the System is fully invested from the BUY signal on 6/20/03.

6-27-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 fell 10 to 976. At least we held above the bogey (recent minor low) of 975 from 6/25/03.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -483 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -127 to -204. We dropped a -99 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Monday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We get no Short-Term signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors page: Friday update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). For the next three weeks, the S&P500 may decline modestly without jeopardizing the BULL market. (After three weeks the market needs to stay above 940 to stay in the clear-more details to come.) If we get a major decline, we will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-26-03 Dear Reader: A nice rise; the S&P500 was up 11 to 986.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +604 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -403 to -127. We dropped a -774 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias for two more days due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in the S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives us a Short-Term BUY signal. The signal is sterile for the System though, since we are 100% invested from the BUY signal of  6/20/03. If you happen to use margin, but only on special occasions, then you could BUY with 50% of your available margin, as we do when the Long-Purchase State is Dirty. We don't include sterile signals on the Market State page. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-25-03 Dear Reader: A down day after the Fed announcement of only a quarter-point cut in the fed funds rate; the S&P500 was off 8 to 975.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -238 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV declined from -386 to -403. We dropped a -154 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias for the next three days due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No Short-Term signals today. We should get a BUY signal in a day or two. Any up day in S&P500 will probably do it, since we are below the 5DMA lower threshold of -28, and we are seeing positive bias in 5DMA for several days.

6-24-03 Dear Reader: A dull day preceding the Fed announcement; the S&P500 was up 2 to 984.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +110 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV declined from -384 to -386. We dropped a +124 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias for the next four days due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No Short-Term signals today.

6-23-03 Dear Reader: Well, this was a rough Monday. The S&P500 was down 14 to 982. I suppose the Fed meeting tomorrow has something to do with it. We just have to grin and bear it after our BUY signal on Friday.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1015 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV declined from +0 to -384. We dropped a +906 from the average from six days ago, giving us a significant negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No Short-Term signals today, but the violation of the bogey of  994.7 from 6/19/03 knocks the Market State from Run-5 down to Oscillatory. The Market State page has been updated. The BUY and SELL thresholds change in Oscillatory and we are allowed to sell short if we like.  If the 5DMA had been above the upper threshold of +2.5 while we were in Run-5 state, we would have got a SELL signal today. We will be watching the near future to see if we should change the upper threshold, or if any other rules need to be changed. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terminology.

6-20-03 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 was up early, then up and down all day by smalls, finally closing up 1 to 996. But that was enough for a Short-Term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -96 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -106 to +0. We dropped a -632 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives us a normal Run-5 Short-Term BUY signal. Market State page has been updated for the BUY.

Long-Term Investors page: Friday update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average) continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). For the next four weeks, the S&P500 may decline modestly without jeopardizing the BULL market. (After four weeks the market needs to stay above 940 to stay in the clear-more details to come.) If we get a major decline, I will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for our equity allocation. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-19-03 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 was down hard, by 15 to 995. Glad we acted on the Short-Term SELL signal yesterday.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -774 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +57 to -106. We dropped a +40 from the average from six days ago, giving us a slight negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We are now in the BUY range on the 5DMA. The whipsaw state changes to Clean because today no BUY signal followed the SELL signal of yesterday (see change on Market State page). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terminology. No Short-Term signals today.

6-18-03 Dear Reader:  A lazy day; the S&P500 finally was down 2 to 1010. But that was enough to give us a Fire SELL signal (see next paragraph). The NASDAQ was up. In a few days we shall see whether once again the S&P gives the true signal and NASDAQ does not. (This is actually beneficial since we get out of our QQQ's at a higher price by selling today.)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -154 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +243 to +57. We dropped a +779 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The decline in S&P500 after an Arm signal yesterday gives us a Fire signal (second half of an Arm & Fire SELL signal). It's looking like the whipsaw rule could have kept out of this trade, which lost a little bit. So we are going to say the Whipsaw State (discussed for the last few days) is Dirty now (see Market State). That means we do not act on any BUY signal until we observe a BUY signal that follows a SELL signal by more than one day. A whipsaw is an opening transaction (such as a BUY) on the day following a closing transaction (such as a SELL). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terminology. Market State and Results_History have been updated for this SELL and for the BUY on BULL transaction discussed on 6/16/03. This trade puts us ahead by 11.7% for the year so far.

6-17-03 Dear Reader:  Up and down around the zero line all day, the S&P500 finally was up 1 to 1012.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +124 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +334 to +243. We dropped a +578 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The decline in 5DMA while the 5DMA is above +3 (approx) gives us an Arm signal (first half of an Arm & Fire SELL signal). Any downturn in S&P500 tomorrow will give a Fire signal to complete the SELL signal. We still dont know if the whipsaw rule should have been used to avoid BUYing on 6/16 in the first place (see yesterday's column). We will know soon enough. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terminology.

6-16-03 Dear Reader:  A boomer advance today; the S&P500 was up 22 to 1011. We get a normal Run-5 BUY signal from this action (see below).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +906 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -16 to +334. We dropped a -844 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives us a BUY signal. Since Friday's SELL signal was sterile, the whipsaw rule probably does not apply, which would void today's BUY signal. (Actually we have not seen a whipsaw following a sterile Run-5 SELL signal, so we are assuming this is how the whipsaw should be interpreted. We'll know soon enough if it was a true whipsaw and the BUY should have been ignored.) This was not a RunLight BUY since the 5DMA was below the lower threshold; it is a normal Run-5 BUY. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terminology. I forgot "Friday update" for Long-Term Investors on 6/13/03, so that was added to the 6/13 entry today. Market State page has been updated for today's BUY. The Hybrid System page has been updated for the RunLight rule addition. The Glossary has been updated for a very important, but forgotten rule that one should BUY immediately on a BULL market declaration and SELL immediately upon a BEAR market declaration. The Results_History has not yet been updated for the effects of these rules.

6-13-03 Dear Reader:  Happy Friday the thirteenth! Today the S&P500 was down 10 to 989. Yesterday's discussion of the new RunLight rule is appropriate since that RunLight BUY signal on 6/11/03 was the second RunLight signal in a row, so would be ignored under the conditions on the rule discussed yesterday. This action today makes us feel pretty good about the development of the rule and conditions.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -632 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +70 to -16. We dropped a -201 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Monday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. With the simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +5 (approx), we get a sterile Short-Term SELL signal today; sterile because we do not have any positions on. If we had bought on 6/11 at S&P500 equal 998, we would have sold today at 989 for a loss. We are now below the -5 lower threshold in 5DMA needed for a BUY signal. The Glossary and Results_History have been updated for the RunLight addition.

Long-Term Investors page: Friday update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average) continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3 weekly, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). For the next five weeks, the S&P500 may decline modestly without jeopardizing the BULL market. If we get a major decline, I will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for our equity allocation. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-12-03 Dear Reader:  Today the S&P500 was up and down, finally closing up by 1 to 999. This would not make us feel good if we had bought yesterday on the recently discussed RunLight rule.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +40 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +185 to +70. We dropped a +613 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday-Monday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No Short-Term signals today.

We have completed another study refining the RunLight rule. By adding three conditions on the rule, we get a nice increase in the nine year results history. To review: the RunLight BUY rule is invoked when in Run-5 state (as now), when a previous minor high is exceeded (we say a notional (on paper only) short-sale is busted). Now we add three conditions: a) the previous high must be exceeded by at least 1.5 S&P500 points; b) it must be the first invocation of the RunLight rule after a normal BUY-SELL trade (the second and subsequent RunLight BUY signals are to be ignored), and c) If market state change to Run-5 and RunLight occur on the same day, ignore the RunLight BUY signal. With these conditions, we see RunLight invoked only six times over a nine year period, but contributing to a 17.6% per year gain over the nine years (see the new 2Summary_Table2). That is an increase over our previous Summary_Table which showed 17.0% over the same period. (In reviewing every trade over the nine years, inevitably we uncover some errors which have now been corrected.) The detailed data (Results_History) have not yet been updated (maybe tomorrow).

6-11-03 Dear Reader:  Today the S&P500 closed up strongly by 13 to 998. Since today we exceeded the minor high of 990 made on 6/5, if the RunLight rule were active, we would have bought today. But recall on 6/9 we announced that the RunLight rule was not beneficial over the nine year period studied, so we are not buying here. We will see soon if the rule would have given us a profit this time or not .

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +779 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +258 to +185. We dropped a +1143 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No Short-Term signals today.

6-10-03 Dear Reader:  Today the S&P500 closed up 9 to 984.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +578 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +132 to +258. We dropped a -52 from the average from six days ago, giving us a slight positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No Short-Term signals today.

6-9-03 Dear Reader:  Today the S&P500 closed down 12 to 976. We need declines like this to wring the excesses from the market and get us to lower levels for a BUY signal. If you were long stocks, aren't you glad you observed our Short-Term SELL signal on 6/6/03? Although charting is not a part of the Field System, we note the support level on S&P500 is at the 950 level and a pull back to that level is deserved.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -844 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +411 to +132. We dropped a +554 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a slight positive bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No Short-Term signals today.

We have finished researching a new rule, which, while it would have been invoked rarely over the last nine years of our trading history table, would capture the kind of advance that occurred between 5/30 and 6/6, after our SELL signal of 5/29/03. (We have to re-examine the results of every day of trading over the nine year period to see if the rule would apply.) The result is that the RunLight rule is not beneficial, i.e., it does not produce a net increase in profits over the nine year period. (Good science reports its failures as well as its successes, but perhaps in smaller typeface.) We may try formulating and testing another rule to try and capture this type of advance.

6-6-03 Dear Reader: We end the week with a SELL signal (see below). The S&P500 closed down 2 to 988 on heavier than usual volume. See column for 5/30/03 for discussion of the current advance in S&P after our SELL signal on 5/29.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -201 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +638 to +411. We dropped a +931 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in the S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +5 (approx), gives us a SELL signal. Since we do not have any positions on, the signal is currently sterile. However, we have left a lot of dough on the table in this rally since 5/30, and we are researching a new rule, which, while it would have been invoked rarely over the last nine years of our trading history table, would capture this kind of advance. Watch this space. It will be a new market state called RunLight, and be positioned between RUN and Run-5 (please see Glossary).

Long-Term Investors page: Friday update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average) continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3 weekly, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). For the next six weeks, the S&P500 may decline modestly without jeopardizing the BULL market. If we get a major decline, I will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for our equity allocation. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

6-5-03 Dear Reader: Another day of bobbing around the zero line. The S&P500 finally closed up 4 to 990. See column for 5/30/03 for discussion of the current advance in S&P after our SELL signal on 5/29.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +613 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +444 to +638. We dropped a -357 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday-Monday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. With the 5DMA now above 400, the 5DMA is over-bought and due for decline. No Short-Term signals today.

6-4-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 had a strong day, closing up 15 to 986. See column for 5/30/03 for discussion of the current advance in S&P after our SELL signal on 5/29.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1143 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +235 to +444. We dropped a +102 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. With the 5DMA now above 400, we say the 5DMA is over-bought and due for decline. The ARM half-sell signal from yesterday expired today, since the S&P500 did not decline, which would have been necessary for the second-half of the signal (see Glossary for ARM & FIRE).

Today is our first anniversary on-line. June 4, 2002 was the first posting on STOCKMARKETSCIENCE.COM, even though we have been developing these Systems for 40 years. This has been an exciting year, with the declaration of the new BULL market on 4/25/03. Despite our very widely broadcast 4/25/03 Press Release, the media have completely ignored the scientific approach to the simple use of: definition, data, conclusion. Do you hear of anyone on the TV or print give an intelligible, testable definition of a BULL market? Do they offer historical performance of the efficacy of their definition? Only on STOCKMARKETSCIENCE.COM do you see this, because this is the only site offering a scientific approach to the trillion dollar stock market. We present complete results of nine years of trading on the Short-Term System and 20 years on the Long-Term System. Any finance professor could assign a graduate student to check our calculations and confirm them. Do you see verifiable methodologies that return an average 16% or more annually over these periods with the wide diversification offered by index funds? We have shown that the stock market is scrutable, not 100% of the time, but frequently enough to generate the returns stated. Hey media, it's time to get your head out! (They'd rather get their market analysis from an astrologer!)

6-3-03 Dear Reader: Up and down around the zero line all day, the S&P500 finally closed up 5 to 972. See column for 5/30/03 for discussion of the current advance in S&P after our SELL signal on 5/29.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -52 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +452 to +235. We dropped a +341 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for one more day due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The drop in 5DMA, while the 5DMA is above the upper threshold of +5 (approx), without a decline in S&P500 gives us the first half of a SELL signal, called ARM. If S&P 500 closes down tomorrow we get a FIRE signal, together they constitute a Short-Term SELL signal (see Glossary for ARM & FIRE). But actually since we have no positions on, the SELL signal is sterile.

6-2-03 Dear Reader: A surprise day, the morning was kind to the averages, then the close was weak; the S&P500 rose 3 to 967 (the NASDAQ was negative). See column for 5/30/03 for discussion of the current advance in S&P after our SELL signal on 5/29.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +554 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +410 to +452. We dropped a +341 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next two days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No Short-Term signals today.