5-30-03 Dear Reader: A nice advance today; the S&P500 rose 14 to 964. If you sold out with me on yesterday's SELL signal, you may wish you hadn't. But not to worry, the Short-Term System does not capture 100% of all possible gains. I have, over a 40 year period, learned that following the System is the way to beat the averages over time. The bogey set on 5/28/03 of 953.2 was violated by today's advance. We did not do a notional (on paper only) short sale on 5/29's SELL signal because we are already at Run-5 state (see Market State page and Glossary). We cannot advance to RUN state with violation of this bogey, since the definition of RUN is that the S&P500 must make a new ALL-TIME HIGH within the last two weeks, which of course it did not do. (In RUN state we can BUY every up day in S&P500.) So now the question is, does today's type of behavior occur frequently enough that we need a new rule to capture gains like today's? This is something we are going to observe as a research project over the next few months (science in the making). Needless to say, this bogey violation is very Bullish, giving additional confidence to our BULL declaration of 4/25/03.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +931 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +384 to +410. We dropped a +804 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next three days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No Short-Term signals today.

Long-Term Investors page: Friday update. Well today is the mini-crisis date. This is the Friday when the S&P500 needs to be above 941, and it is. This means the 200DMA (40 week moving average) continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (see Long-Term Investors page, Table 3 for update). For the next seven weeks, the S&P500 may decline modestly without jeopardizing the BULL market. If we get a major decline, I will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for our equity allocation. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

5-29-03 Dear Reader: A decline after a mid-day rally today; the S&P500 fell 4 to 950. This is a top reversal (market goes up to new minor high, then closes down), although such chart patterns are not specifically a part of the Field Systems. SELL signal today (see below). Notice that the NASDAQ closed up while the S&P500 closed down. The NASDAQ goes to extremes much more than the better-behaved S&P ( NAS is a bit bi-polar). We use S&P to give the signals, even applying the signals to our trading in NASDAQ QQQ's (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms). This has worked in our favor the majority of the time, as the QQQ will eventually turn down too and we will have got out at a higher price than if we waited for the NASDAQ to turn.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -357 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +549 to +384. We dropped a +467 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next four days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA is above the upper threshold of +5 (approx), gives us a Short-Term SELL signal. We sold out everything to cash. This BUY-SELL sequence netted us a gain of 2.84%, bringing our gain for the year to 8.89%, compared to the S&P500 change of 7.93%. We have updated the Market State and Results_History pages accordingly. Should get a BUY signal in a week or so.

Long-Term Investors page: No change, 100% long in SPY and QQQ for our equity allocation. Short-term signals are ignored in Long-Term System.

5-28-03 Dear Reader: An anemic close after a much stronger mid-day; the S&P500 rose 2 to 953.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +102 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +506 to +549. We dropped a -114 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next five days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. With the 5DMA over +400, we are definitely over-bought now, and should get a Short-Term SELL signal soon. No short-term signals today.

5-27-03 Dear Reader: We are announcing today the Field Hybrid Short-Term/Long-Term System and also the addition of a rudimentary Financial Planning Page. Please see paragraphs below in today's column.

A boomer rally today; the S&P500 rose 18 to 952.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1033 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +88 to +506. We dropped a -1057 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. With the 5DMA over +400 we are definitely over-bought now, and should get a SELL signal soon. No short-term signals today.

Hybrid Short-Term/Long-Term System page: The Hybrid System simply uses the Field Short-Term System in a BULL market and the Long-Term System in a BEAR market. In the Long-Term System in a BEAR market we have no positions, so actually we get money-market interest rate returns in a BEAR market. This System shows larger returns over time than either the Short-Term or Long-Term System alone. The Hybrid System beats both the Short-Term and Long-Term Systems by a small margin over the most recent nine-year period studied. Please click on link to our new page. While an increase from 16.4% average annual gain to 16.9% gain (plus whatever is made from money-market interest in a BEAR market) over a nine year period may seem small, we like any plan that will give us improved results. And the Hybrid System has less risk, in that we are OUT of the market while in a BEAR market. Also there were no losing years in the time period studied. This System was created for persons interested in having no losing years, while attempting to beat the S&P500 average. While achieving these goals can not be guaranteed, for the most recent nine years period, it was successful.

Financial Planning Page: We have added a page to allow the investor to begin to assess his/her financial goals and risk tolerance, and we offer suggestions as to which of the Systems presented here might be appropriate for each risk level. These are the Systems we would recommend for an investor seeking to have a managed account with us. Fees for such accounts are presented also.

5-23-03 Dear Reader: A slow, pre-holiday day with little movement, the S&P500 rose 1 to 933.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +341 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +45 to +88. We dropped a +127 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No short-term signals today.

Long-Term investor's page: Friday update: The 200DMA continues to advance, which is what we need for this BULL market to continue (see Long-term Page, Table 3). The critical time frame continues to be around 5/30/03, when the S&P500 needs to be above 941 for the BULL to continue. If the S&P500 is, for example, below 940 next Friday (or 5/30/03) then the 200DMA will turn down. If the S&P500 is below the 200DMA average line (at about 884) at that time, a BEAR market will be declared. Table 1 on Long-term Page shows this (a mis-call) occurred only once in the 20 year period covered by the Table.

5-22-03 Dear Reader: A nice follow-through to the BUY signal of yesterday. The S&P500 rose 8 to 932.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +804 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -7 to +45. We dropped a +542 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No short-term signals today.

5-21-03 Dear Reader: Ding...ding...ding...ding! There is a Wall St. saying that no one rings a bell when it's time to buy or sell. Well today we ring the bell for you, because this is the BUY DAY of the YEAR! It doesn't seem so spectacular because the S&P500 rose a modest 4 to 923. But this is the first Short-term BUY signal after the declaration of the new BULL market which we made on 4/25/03. If you have been waiting for that, this is it!

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +467 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -90 to -7. We dropped a +51 from the average from six days ago, giving us a small negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Thursday-Friday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. This is a BUY signal because the S&P500 and the 5DMA both closed up, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY signal. Since we are Long-Purchase Clean, we can BUY with 100% of our equity allocation. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term investor's page: Long-term investors who did not BUY on 4/25/03 (see 4/25 column for BULL market announcement), now is your chance to get into this new BULL market. We have two more Fridays to deal with before we are in the clear of near-term Cautions. See Long-term page and paragraph labeled CAUTION for an explanation.

5-20-03 Dear Reader: With the market up nicely this morning and fractionally up near the close, I thought today would be our famous BUY SIGNAL of the YEAR (see column 5/19/03). But the volume went the wrong way for a buy signal (see next paragraph). The S&P500 fell 1 to 920.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -114 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -78 to -90. We dropped a -52 from the average from six days ago, giving us a small positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday-Friday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No short-term signals today. We should get a BUY signal in a few days, now that we have the 5DMA below the lower threshold of -5 (for which the Market State of Run-5 is named). Any up day in S&P500 combined with an up day in 5DMA of OBV will do it.

5-19-03 Dear Reader: A hard down day for the S&P500; it fell 24 to 921. If you are a Long-Term investor, do not worry about declines like this. If you are following our Short-Term System, the BUY signal is near. These declines are what we want and need in order to get in at a lower price. Then hopefully the market will advance thereafter, and we can sell at a higher price. This is the way to make money. If you are short-term oriented and are long stocks, this decline will be painful for you. We do not wish to hold stocks during such declines, so we sell when we get a sell signal. If you follow this column every day you will receive all the information you need to accomplish these goals, and we give the rules and logic behind each buy and sell.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1057 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +325 to -78. We dropped a +956 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No short-term signals today. We should get a BUY signal in a few days, now that we have the 5DMA below the lower threshold of -5 (for which the Market State of Run-5 is named). Any up day in S&P500 combined with an up day in 5DMA of OBV will do it.

Long-Term investor's page: The next BUY signal will be the BUY SIGNAL OF THE YEAR (in our opinion). Why? Because it is the first Short-term BUY signal after declaration of the new BULL market. If you waited and did not BUY on the 4/25/03 declaration day, then you should buy on the upcoming Short-term BUY signal, if you want to participate in the BULL market. You may purchase with 100% of your equity allocation (if you use asset allocation). We buy SPY (S&P500 Index fund) and QQQ (NASDAQ 100 Index fund), two Exchange Traded Funds (ETF), 50/50% of each. Other ETF's are on our ETF Page. We still have the caution that the S&P500 should be above 941 on 5/30/03 for the 200DMA line to continue upwards. The BULL market is not in true jeopardy unless the S&P500 is below about 883 on 5/30/03. See Long-Term page for discussion of this caution.

5-16-03 Dear Reader: A slight down day for the S&P500; it fell 2 to 944.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +127 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +449 to +325. We dropped a +747 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No short-term signals today. We should get a BUY signal in a few days, when we get the 5DMA below the lower threshold of -5 (for which the Market State of Run-5 is named).

Long-Term investor's page: Friday update: The 200DMA continues to advance, which is what we need for this BULL market to continue (see Long-term Page, Table 3). The critical time frame continues to be around 5/30/03, when the S&P500 needs to be above 941 for the BULL to continue. If you have been waiting to BUY until the first Short-term BUY signal after declaration of the BULL market on 4/25/03, then your day is coming soon. This will be the BUY day of the year.

5-15-03 Dear Reader: An up day for the S&P500; it gained 7 to 947. This puts us at the previous minor high on 5/12/03; this could be a test which will show the direction of the market over the next week or so.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +542 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +214 to +449. We dropped a -632 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday-Monday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We consider 5DMA over 400 as over-bought and ripe for decline. No Short-term signals today. We should get a BUY signal in a few days, when we get the 5DMA below the lower threshold of -5 (for which the Market State of Run-5 is named).

5-14-03 Dear Reader: A slight down day for the S&P500; it lost 3 to 939.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +51 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV actually rose from +146 to +214. We dropped a -289 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias also Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today. What does it take to drop this market a little? We should get a BUY signal in a few days, when we get the 5DMA below the lower threshold of -5 (for which the Market State of Run-5 is named).

5-13-03 Dear Reader: A boring, flat to down day for the S&P500; it lost 3 to 942. While charting is not a part of the Field System, when we see something interesting, we point it out. The S&P500 950 level has been a resistance to advance in August 2002 and December 02. Yesterday it was once again at that level. If the market powers through the 950 level, that will be very bullish and the 950 level will become a support level, versus a resistance level. It is somewhat more likely, especially as the market is somewhat over-bought now, that this level will offer temporary resistance again, and we will see some decline here. After that, we need to see the 950 level decidedly penetrated for the BULL to continue. Between now and May 30 is a critical time for the market to reveal which way it is going in the coming months and possibly years.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -52 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +304 to +146. We dropped a +737 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. Today we get another sterile Short-term SELL signal, because the S&P500 and the 5DMA both turned down, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of about +20. It is sterile because we have no positions on which we would sell, and we do not sell short when the Market State is in Run-5. (Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.) We also had a sterile sell signal on 5/5/03. We should get a BUY signal in a few days, when we get the 5DMA below the lower threshold of -5 (for which the Market State of Run-5 is named).

Long-Term investor's page: The long-expected BULL market arrived Friday, 4/25/03; see column for 4/25 below.

5-12-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 boomed ahead by 12 to 945. We exceeded the minor highs of 934.4 on 5/6/03 and 933.4 on 5/9. This is Bullish action.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +958 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +141 to +304. We dropped a +141 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today. We should get a BUY signal in a few days.

Long-Term investor's page: The long-expected BULL market arrived Friday, 4/25/03; see column for 4/25 below. Remember we need the S&P500 to be above 941 on 5/30/03 in order to keep the 40 week (200 day) moving average (200DMA) moving up. Now if the S&P500 is below 880 on 5/30, a BEAR market signal will be given, and the BULL signal of 4/25 must be judged a "mis-call", of which we have had but one in the past 20 years (see Long-Term Investor's page). If the S&P500 is between 880 and 940 on 5/30, the BULL will probably survive the test, since the prices 200 days ago declined significantly after 8/23/02, which is 200 business days before 5/30/03.

Have you noticed the talking heads on TV commenting that the market is really looking bullish, and that a 20% advance from the lows is generally considered necessary for a BULL market, and that we are at about 20% advance now? Wouldn't you rather have got into the market on 4/25/03? Wouldn't you rather have a BULL/BEAR definition that has a 20 year track record and that has no ambiguity? The definition we use has been around at least 40 years. I believe the reason so many TV-talkers use the 20% rule is because they think the public can't understand anything more complicated than that.

5-9-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 13 to 933.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +747 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV actually fell from +202 to +141. We dropped a +1047 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today. This may feel like a BUY signal but it is not, since we are a long way from the lower threshold where the 5DMA is equal to -5 or less. I feel this is an up spike in a short-term down trend. We should get a BUY signal in a few days.

Long-Term investor's page: Friday update. The long-expected BULL market arrived Friday, 4/25/03; see column for 4/25 below. See Table 3 on Long-Term Page for latest 40 week moving average; it is going up, as we want, for this to remain a BULL market.

5-8-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 9 to 920.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -629 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +312 to +202. We dropped a -78 from the average from six days ago, giving us a slight positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday-Tuesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today. This down action is what we need to get us into a nice BUY position in a few days.

Long-Term investor's page: The long-expected BULL market arrived Friday, 4/25/03; see column for 4/25 below.

5-7-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 5 to 930.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -289 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +389 to +312. We dropped a +96 from the average from six days ago, giving us a slight negative bias for today. We will have a slight positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today.

Long-Term investor's page: The long-expected BULL market arrived Friday, 4/25/03; see column for 4/25 below.

5-6-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 8 to 934.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +737 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +333 to +389, approaching again an over-bought condition. We dropped a +457 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today.

Long-Term investor's page: The long-expected BULL market arrived Friday, 4/25/03; see column for 4/25 below. 5-7-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 5 to 930.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -288 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +389 to +312. We dropped a +96 from the average from six days ago, giving us a slight negative bias for today. We will have a slight positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today.

Long-Term investor's page: The long-expected BULL market arrived Friday, 4/25/03; see column for 4/25 below.

5-6-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 8 to 934.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +737 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +333 to +389, approaching again an over-bought condition. We dropped a +457 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today.

Long-Term investor's page: The long-expected BULL market arrived Friday, 4/25/03; see column for 4/25 below.

5-5-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 4 to 927.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -141 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +490 to +333. We dropped a +928 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We were over-bought and this decline will remove the stress of the over-bought condition. No Short-term signals today. (We get a second SELL signal today since the S&P500 declined at same time as the 5DMA declined while above the upper threshold of +20 (approx), but it is immaterial since we have no System position on, and short sales are excluded in this market.) May get a BUY signal in a few days.

Long-Term investor's page: The long-expected BULL market arrived Friday, 4/25/03; see column for 4/25 below.

Short Sellers Paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): We get a repeat SELL signal today but we can not sell short under System rules since short state is Dirty and Market State is Run-5 (see Market State page).

5-2-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 ended the week with a strong rally, up 14 to 930.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1047 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +139 to +490. We dropped a -710 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday-Wednesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We are now over-bought. No Short-term signals today (but see Short Sellers Paragraph below; Market State Page is changed by Short action). May get a BUY signal in a few days.

Long-Term investor's page: Friday update. The long-expected BULL market arrived last Friday! See column for 4/25/03 below. See Table 3 on Long-Term Page for latest 40 week moving average; it is going up, as we want, for this to remain a BULL market. What could go wrong with this BULL market declaration? The critical time frame is 2-4 weeks from now, when the S&P500 from 40 weeks ago will be rising to the 900-941 range. If the S&P500 is, for example, below 940 four weeks from today (or 5/30/03) then the 200DMA will turn down. If the S&P500 is below the 200DMA average line (at about 880) at that time, a BEAR market will be declared. Table 1 on Long-term Page shows this (a mis-call) occurred once in the 20 year period covered by the Table.

Short Sellers Paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Well, at least we got resolution of the tug-of-war going on for several days. We had to close out our short position with a loss, since the bogey of 919, plus one point, or 920, was exceeded on the close today. This changes two state variables on the Market State page. The Short State is now Dirty, and the Market State changes from Oscillatory to Run-5. This is very Bullish and confirms our recent nation-wide Press Release on the 4/25/03 BULL market beginning. We have added some items to the Glossary regarding Run, Run-5, Oscillatory and Plunge market states and "over-bought", to make it easier to look up these terms.

5-1-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 again barely moved, down 1 to 916.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -78 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV actually rose from +44 to +139. We dropped a -554 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No Short-term signals today. May get a BUY signal in a few days.

Long-Term investor's page: The long-expected BULL market arrived last Friday! See column for 4/25/03 below.

Short Sellers Paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Still exasperatingly close to our bogey of 919, at which, if the S&P closes at that plus one point, or 920, we would be forced to buy back our short position for a modest loss. No changes today.