3-31-05 Dear Readers: The market bobbed and weaved around the flat line all day. That's good since we need one more day to get above the threshold in 5DMA for a sell signal (see next paragraph). The S&P closed down by 1 to 1180. 

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +174 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -76 to +68. We dropped a -544 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We are now above the upper threshold of +19 for a SELL signal, which could come in the next couple days. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-30-05 Dear Readers:. Wow, the market boomed ahead by 16 to 1181, closing near our old support/resistance level of 1184. The S&P bounced off the next lower support level of 1163.8 set on 1/24/05 (yesterday's close was 1165.4).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1160 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -459 to -76. We dropped a -754 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. From the action today we see the wisdom of having three variables control the Sell signals: the S&P, the 5DMA and the threshold. Yesterday we had S&P and 5DMA turn down but the 5DMA was not above the threshold for a sell, which is +19. If we had sold yesterday we would have missed today's rally. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-29-05 Dear Readers:. The market fell, with the S&P down 9 at 1165.  Despite the negative results today, we did not get a sell signal (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1094 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -355 to -459. We dropped a -516 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The market violated the bogey set at 1171.4 on 3/24/05, but we are already at the lowest state for a BULL market, which is OSCILLatory. And we do not sell out long positions in a BULL market when a buy bogey is violated. No signals today. Despite the downturn in S&P and 5DMA, we are not above the upper threshold of +19 in 5DMA needed for a SELL signal when in OSCILLatory State. But we are greater than -400 down in 5DMA so we say market is oversold and ripe for rebound. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-28-05 Dear Readers:. The market advanced with the S&P up 3 at 1174.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -145 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -414 to -355. We dropped a -442 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-24-05 Dear Readers:. The market declined slightly, with the S&P down 1 at 1171. Tomorrow is a holiday.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +186 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -437 to -414. We dropped a +264 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition of a continuing BULL market. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of February, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +0.4% using S&P only as the basis, or -0.9% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1136. for one more week to avoid a BEAR market signal; after that needs to stay above 1126 for one week, with declining bogey values subsequent.

3-23-05 Dear Readers:. The market rose slightly, with the S&P up 1 at 1173. The breaking of the support at 1184 yesterday means that the 1184 level is now a resistance level, which could impede upward progress. The market declined the last 10 minutes and it was questionable if it would close in positive territory. Technically today we had another sterile BUY signal (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -544 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -444 to -437. We dropped a -770 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The rise in S&P and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a BUY signal the 3rd sterile BUY signal in a row. It is sterile since we are fully invested. If you are using margin, the signal would allow you to buy using 12% of available funds for equities. We are scaling-in margin purchases. We dont record sterile signals on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-22-05 Dear Readers:. The market was ok until the Fed said almost nothing except what was expected! Then went into the tank, down 12 at 1172, and breaking the support at 1184 decisively. An Intermediate Down Trend is determined by declining tops and declining bottoms. We are removing the Volatility Index from the IDT definition, since the tops and bottoms seems to be sufficient. We assume that the market will not be able to exceed its high of 1225.3 on 3/7/05 on the next up leg, which will give declining tops. The declining lows are 1184.2 on 2/22/05 and any day after today.  An IDT is now with us, meaning the the Long Purchase State is Dirty. Thus we will scale-in our purchases; committing only 50% of available capital for equities on first BUY signal, then 25% for next, then 12%, 6% etc. Market State page has been updated for this.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -755 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -432 to -444. We dropped a -696 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are below -400 in 5DMA, so we say we are oversold and ripe for an upturn. No buy/sell signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-21-05 Dear Readers:. The market is really toying with us. There is a support level at 1184 S&P, set 2/22/05, and the market was at that level again today, closing at 1183.8, not a full point below the previous low of 1184.2. If the market closes at least one point below that level, there is a good chance we are seeing another Intermediate Down Trend beginning to form.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -516 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -217 to -432.  We dropped a +557 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below -400 in 5DMA, so we say we are oversold and ripe for an upturn. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-18-05 Dear Readers:. The S&P500 recovered from greater losses to close down 1 to 1190. There is a support level at 1184 S&P, set 2/22/05, and the market bounced off that level today. The market may challenge that level again Monday. If the market closes at least one point below that level, there is a good chance we are seeing another Intermediate Down Trend beginning to form. Contrariwise, I noticed that the price of oil made a new high yesterday and then closed down. This is known as a top reversal. If oil prices, which have been weighing on the market, come down a moderate amount, we would expect the S&P500 to advance from here, which would merge nicely with the support level idea at 1184. Neither of these indicators are part of the Field Systems, but I point them out when I see them. It is also noted that NASDAQ Composite index today reached a new low for the year thus far, and is thus in an Intermediate Down Trend, but we take our signals from the S&P500, and we consider the S&P a harbinger for the more volatile NASDAQ, and not the other way around.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -442 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -201 to -217.  We dropped a -360 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Although we had downturns in both S&P and 5DMA, we were not above the upper threshold of +19 in 5DMA today, so there is no sell signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition of a continuing BULL market. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of February, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +2% using S&P only as the basis, or +0.2% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1136. for two more weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal.

3-17-05 Dear Readers:. For St. Patrick's Day the S&P500 showed us a tiny bit of green, closing up 2 to 1190. There is a support level at 1184 S&P. The market may challenge that level tomorrow. If the market closes at least one point below that level, there is a good chance we are seeing another Intermediate Down Trend beginning to form.  Sterile Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +264 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -262 to -201.  We dropped a -41 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral/positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a BUY signal, but it is sterile since we are fully invested. (But see remarks 3/14/05; since this is 3rd buy signal in a row, buyers using margin may buy with 25% of their account equity. If we get another buy signal in a few days, the buy would be for 12% of equity margin).  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-16-05 Dear Readers:. We ate some dust again, the S&P500 closed down 10 to 1188. There is a support level at 1184 S&P. If the market closes at least one point below that level, there is a good chance we are seeing another Intermediate Down Trend beginning to form.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -770 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -296 to -262.  We dropped a -942 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-15-05 Dear Readers:. We got hit again, the S&P500 closed down 9 to 1198.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -696 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -278 to -296.  We dropped a -603 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The S&P broke below the bogey of 1200.1 set on 3/11/05, but we are already at the lowest/weakest Market State for a BULL market, OSCILLatory, so there is no rule coming into play today. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-14-05 Dear Readers:. The S&P500 closed up 7 to 1207. Repeat sterile Short-term Buy signal today. See next paragraph.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +557 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -330 to -278.  We dropped a +298 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28 for a BUY when in OSCILLatory State, gives a Short-term BUY signal, but it is sterile since we are already fully invested. If you have margin available and wish to take some risk, you can buy with 50% of available margin. This takes off the idea of the Long-Purchase State (LPS), which is fixed as Clean in a BULL market which is not in an Intermediate Down Trend (IDT). We are not in an IDT so the LPS says we may invest 100% of available funds for equities, which is what we did on 3/10/05. Using margin is not recommended for the average investor, who may consider this a sterile BUY signal. If you buy with 50% of available margin, and if we should get another buy signal before we get a sell signal, then 25% of available margin would be invested upon the next buy signal, then 12%, 6% and so on, if we get that many buy signals before we get a sell signal. This is the LPS pattern which we use when the LPS is Dirty. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-11-05 Dear Readers: Well we got an immediate bust of the BUY bogey. The day before our buy signal yesterday, which came after the close, is the bogey for the buy signal, i.e., the minor low which occurred before the buy. When the S&P closes at least one point below the bogey (which is 1207. set on 3/9/05), we say the trade is busted, and we drop the Market State to Oscillatory, but we do not close out the trades. The S&P500 closed down 9 to 1200. So much for the triple-top support mentioned yesterday. Chart reading is not part of the Field Systems, but we point them out when we see them. See next paragraph.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -360 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -98 to -330.  We dropped a +799 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The violation of the BUY bogey drops the Market State to OSCILLatory. The OSCILLatory State has different thresholds for the BUY and SELL signals than the other States. We do not sell the long positions. Market State page has been updated for the Oscill. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition of a continuing BULL market. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of February, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +2.9% using S&P only as the basis, or +1.5% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1136. for three weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal.

3-10-05 Dear Readers: The S&P hovered around the flat line the last hour, and the 5DMA also went back and forth between buy signal and not buy signal. The S&P500 closed up 2 to 1209. Got a BUY signal 30 min after the close, as the slow final volume reports came in. We cant do the buying until tomorrow's opening. (see next paragraph). As I mentioned on 3/4/05, the S&P triple top which was broken on 3/4 now becomes a support level, and the current decline is seen stopping (at least for today, but we'll hope for a further rally) at 1207, yesterday's close.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -41 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -99 to -98.  We dropped a -49 from the average from six days ago, giving a slight positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We will BUY on tomorrow's opening, using 100% of available assets for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-9-05 Dear Readers: The market took a big hit today. I am glad our Short-term System rules gave us a SELL signal yesterday. (Long-term investors should sit tight.) The S&P500 closed down 12 to 1207. Yesterday's modest decline is the kindest sort of SELL signal. Imagine if the signal came today, when we would have to suffer a large loss to get a signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -942 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +83 to -99.  We dropped a -31 from the average from six days ago, giving a slight positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the threshold of -5 in 5DMA for a BUY signal; when we get a simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, we will have a BUY signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-8-05 Dear Readers: The S&P500 closed down 6 to 1219. SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -603 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +319 to +83.  We dropped a +576 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM that we bought on 3/4/05; please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The round trip result was -0.2% based on SPY only, bringing our net for the year to +0.8%, versus S&P net of +0.6%. The RunLight flag remains at Dirty, since there was a loss on this RunLite trade. The QQQQ we had purchased gave a profit, but we use S&P only to keep score, because of its breadth in representing the market. Market State Page has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-7-05 Dear Readers: In a modest follow-on to Friday, the S&P500 closed up 3 to 1225.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +298 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually fell from +345 to +319.  We dropped a +428 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. It looked like the S&P might close down which would have given a SELL signal, since the 5DMA was down. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-4-05 Dear Readers: Finally making its decisive move, the S&P500 closed up 12 to 1222. This gives a RunLite immediate BUY signal today (see next paragraph). As I said yesterday, the triple top resistance I mentioned on 2/28/05 is strongly in evidence here. Since the market has broken through this level with a significant advance, it is very BULLish. The 1211 level now becomes a support level and would expect the next minor decline to stop at about 1211.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +799 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +365 to +345.  We dropped a +900 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The violation of the upper bogey of 1211.4 by more than 1.5 points, while in Run-5 State, gives a Short-term RunLite BUY signal. The 5DMA does not figure in RunLite BUY signals. The Long-Purchase State is Clean so we may BUY with 100% of available cash for equities. We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ, and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. The Market State immediately drops back to Run-5 after the RunLite signal, so it is recorded that way on Market State page. The reason for that is that Run-5 SELL signals (when they come) control; there are no special RunLite SELL signals. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition of a continuing BULL market. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of February, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +4.8% using S&P only as the basis, or +3.2% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1136. for four weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal.

3-3-05 Dear Readers: It's exasperating to be so close for three days to a RunLite BUY signal and have the market fail to do it each time. Clearly the BULLS are having difficulty getting through the 1211 level. After flirting with higher prices, the S&P500 gained a fraction to 1210, still near its last minor high (bogey) of 1211.4 on 2/27/05. If the close had been 1.5 points higher than the last bogey, we would have had a RunLite immediate BUY signal. The triple top resistance I mentioned on 2/28/05 is strongly in evidence here. If the market can break through this level with a significant advance, if will be very BULLish. If it fails and comes down significantly, the resistance will be there waiting for the next attempt to break through.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -49 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +511 to +365.  We dropped a +682 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA for the next 3 business days due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-2-05 Dear Readers: After flirting with higher prices, the S&P500 lost a fraction to 1210, still near its last minor high (bogey) of 1211.4 on 2/27/05. If the close had been 1.5 points higher than the last bogey, we would have had a RunLite immediate BUY signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -31 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +635 to +511. We are in over-bought condition, since we are above +400 on 5DMA.  We dropped a +587 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA for the next 4 days due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-1-05 Dear Readers: The S&P500 finished up 7 to 1210.4, approaching its last minor high (bogey) of 1211.4 on 2/27/05. If the close had been 1.5 points higher than the last bogey, we would have had a RunLite immediate BUY signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +576 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV soared from +63 to +635, immediately putting us into over-bought condition, since we are above +400 on 5DMA.  We dropped a -1181 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA for the next 5 days due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.