Mar_06

3-31-06 The S&P closed down by 5 to 1295. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -333 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +110 to -55. We dropped a +492 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +8, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 3/29. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The result of the round trip was a small loss of -0.6%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +0.5%. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the SELL. OK, we now have enough data to conclude that the RUN* Market State was a bad idea. The market apparently does have significant memory of the days from 4-5 years ago. The good BUY signal that gave a profit was on 3/14; that was also a RunLite BUY signal, so no rule changes would have been needed. The BUY signal on 3/22 was a RUN* signal, but not a RunLite signal, so that BUY would have been avoided if RunLite were the rule. The same is true of the 3/29 BUY signal, RUN*, but not RunLite. Therefore the last 4 trades, one profitable, would change to one profitable, none unprofitable, if RUN* were eliminatred. So we are eliminating RUN* today. This is the way Stockmarketscience works, folks, try a new rule if it seems needed and keep it if it produces profits and modify or discard it if it fails. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms; references to RUN* have been deleted from the Glossary.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of March, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +6.1%, using S&P as the basis, or 7.0% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -53 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +108 to +110. We dropped a -64 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P was not accompanied by a decline in 5DMA, so there was no SELL signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-29-06 The S&P closed up nicely by 10 to 1303. Run* Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1206 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +61 to +170. We dropped a +663 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We had a rule change, described yesterday, after the losing trade on 3/24-3/28. Since the System record is supposed to reflect the current rule set, we must remove those trades from the record. The Run* rule to BUY any up day which exceed the previous day's close by at least 1.5 points, gives a Short-term BUY signal today. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The clock is ticking on the RUN* State. In the RUN* State if a new high in S&P (for 4 yr period) is not made within two weeks of the most recent new high, the State reverts to RUN-5. The date the last new high was made was 3/17; two weeks from that is 3/31. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-28-06 The S&P closed down hard by 8 to 1293. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -966 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +54 to -0.1 [rose from +54 to +61, after hours correction]. We dropped a -695 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +8, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY and QQQQ we bought on 3/24/06. Since we oficially risked only 50% of available funds for equities (pending a possible rule change-see below), the result of the round trip was -0.37%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +0.7%. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the SELL. On 3/24 we mentioned that we might add a rule to the RUN* state that the S&P must advance by a minimum amount before we act on the buy signal. Since that 3/24 buy signal was given with only a 1.3 S&P point rise, we believe a 1.5 minimum rise, as is used for the RUNLight BUY signal, is an appropriate rule to be added. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -126 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +27 to +54. We dropped a -260 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P was not accompanied by a decline in 5DMA, and we are looking for a normal sell exit signal, even though we are in RUN* state. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-24-06 The S&P closed up 1 to 1303. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). Now I am wondering if we need a certain gain in S&P (such as 4 points) before we declare a BUY signal in RUN* market state. Stay tuned. If this BUY comes out badly, we will look harder at such a rule modification.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +492 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -33 to +27. We dropped a +192 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The rise in S&P while in RUN* market state, gives a Short-term BUY signal. Since we are considering adding a restriction for the amount of increase in S&P to give such a signal, we are investing with only 50% of available funds for equities. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of February, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +6.8%, using S&P as the basis, or 6.7% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

3-23-06 The S&P closed down 3 to 1302. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -64 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +41 to -33. We dropped a +307 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +8, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY and QQQQ we bought yesterday. The result of the round trip was -0.25%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +1.1%. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the SELL. It is frustrating to get a round trip in only two days, and with a small loss, and the same may be repeated soon, but years of experience shows this is the proper way to play the RUN Market State. This is the first year we are using the RUN* state, so it is conceivable that some changes will need to be made. A RUNaway market is very profitable, so the frustration is tolerable to me, but perhaps not to everyone. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-22-06 The S&P closed up 7 to 1297. Short-term BUY signal today; we are in RUN* Market State, so ANY up day in S&P is a BUY signal, regardless of what the 5DMA does. (dont look for a footnote, RUN* is the name of the state)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +906 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +27 to +41. We dropped a +589 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The rise in S&P, while in RUN* state, gives a short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY and QQQQ. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Since the exit from a RUN* state is a normal sell, we will watch the 5DMA for that purpose. The upper threshold in 5DMA for a SELL in RUN* state is +8. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-21-06 The S&P closed down 8 to 1297. The last three months we have had a couple market tops about 1294 S&P, so that level is now a support to the market. We are in RUN* Market State, so ANY up day in S&P is a BUY signal, regardless of what the 5DMA does. (dont look for a footnote, RUN* is the name of the state)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -695 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +363 to +27. We dropped a +987 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-20-06 The S&P closed down 2 to 1305. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -260 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +485 to +363. We dropped a +349 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +8, gives a Short-term SELL signal. The System sold the SPY and QQQQ that it bought on 3/8/06. The round trip result was a gain of 2.1%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +1.34%. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-17-06 The S&P hung just above the zero change line most of the day, finally closing up 2 to 1307. We are so close to a sell point. Today was also quadruple witching day, meaning that options and futures of all types for the month of March expired at the close today, sometimes creating a volatile or otherwise strange-behavior day.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +192 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +598 to +485. We dropped a +760 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Friday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is now above +400, so we say the market is over-bought. The decline in 5DMA, while it was above the upper threshold of +8, while the S&P was not down, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM&FIRE SELL signal). Any decline Monday in S&P will complete the SELL with a FIRE signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of February, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +7.15%, using S&P as the basis, or 6.73% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +307 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +455 to +598. We dropped a -410 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Thursday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is now above +400, so we say the market is over-bought. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-15-06 Up and down today. I thought we might get a sell signal, but got an additional nice advance. The S&P was up 6 to 1303. This is a new high in the S&P for 4.5 years.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +589 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +340 to +455. We dropped a +15 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is now above +400, so we say the market is over-bought. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-14-06 The S&P boomed ahead, up 13 to 1297. This is a new high in the S&P for 4.5 years and blows right through the double top we've commented about here. It is very Bullish. The Market State rises to RUN*, which is like RUN except the time period does not have to be an ALL-TIME HIGH, but a high seen in the last three years or more. The rules for RUN* are the same as RUN, namely, buy every up day in S&P and execute normal RUN sell signals. The System cant buy any more stock, as we were fully invested on 3/8/06 (which has turned out to be a very nice buy point).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +987 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -21 to +340. We dropped a -949 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We have again started getting the corrected overnight volume numbers from PBS/Nightly Business Report, so I will consider the signals more reliable. The Market State page has been updated for the RUN*. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +450 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -262 to -21. We dropped a -854 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-10-06 The S&P moved smartly ahead today, up 9 to 1282. Repeat BUY signal today, but it is sterile as the System is fully invested (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1021 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -512 to -262. We dropped a -231 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a repeat (the second) BUY signal, but it is sterile since the System bought with 100% of available funds on 3/8/06. Personally, we bought on 3/8 with only 50% of available funds for equities, since we didnt like the look of the S&P Double Top discussed on 2/28/06. So we bought with an additional 25% today, using the scale-in rule. It's looking better for the ARM & FIRE rule, which we used to get into the positions on 3/8/06. If we did not have that rule, we would not have bought on 3/8 and would have bought today. Today's S&P close of 1282 is less advantageous a buy point than the 1278.5 buy point of 3/8, therefore the ARM&FIRE rule is once again vindicated. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of February, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +5.04%, using S&P as the basis, or 4.65% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

3-9-06 The S&P was down 6 to 1272. Market State change today from RUN-5 to OSCILLatory (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -601 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -432 to -512. We dropped a -201 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below the lower threshold of -400, we say the market is over-sold. The violation today of the bogey (recent minor low) of S&P 1275.9, set on 3/7/06, by at least 1.5 points drops the Market State from Run-5 to OSCILLatory. This changes the thresholds at which buy and sell signals are given. The Market State page has been updated for the change. We do not sell out our positions on such violations. No other signals today. It's not looking so good for the ARM & FIRE rule, which we used to get into the positions yesterday. We'll give it some more time, and we nonetheless will not sell until we get a sell signal. Most likely now is a repeat buy signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-8-06 The S&P was up 3 to 1278. ARM & FIRE BUY signal completed today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +73 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -187 to -432. We dropped a +1298 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below the lower threshold of -400, we say the market is over-sold. The upturn in S&P, despite the downturn in 5DMA, after yesterday's ARM signal, completes the Short-term BUY with a FIRE signal. The System bought, using 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY and QQQQ; please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Personally we bought using only 50% of available funds since we are still eyeing the double top in the S&P as bearish, as discussed on 2/28/06. Since the 5DMA was down strongly today, this will be an interesting test of the ARM & FIRE rule, either soundly re-confirming it or maybe, be the first instance of its failure to give a profitable signal. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -949 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -294 to -187. We dropped a -1481 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA, while it was below the lower threshold of -5, while the S&P did not turn up, gives a Short-term ARM signal (first half of an ARM & FIRE BUY signal). Any upturn in S&P tomorrow will complete the FIRE for a BUY signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -854 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -58 to -294. We dropped a +324 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-3-06 The S&P was down 2 to 1288. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -231 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +39 to -58. We dropped a +256 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. The System sold the SPY, QQQQ, and IWM that it bought on 3/1. The round trip result was a loss of 0.25%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to -0.74%. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the SELL. We were cautious about the last BUY signal and personally sat it out. The System has no allowance for "gut feeling", but any individual is allowed to take a pass on any BUY signal. The double top chart pattern caused us to pass on this one (see 3/1/column). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of February, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +5.53%, using S&P as the basis, or 5.88% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

Short-sellers paragraph. We can not sell short on today's sell signal since we are in Market State Run-5. None of the Run[] states allow short sales.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -201 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -38 to +39. We dropped a -589 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We are now above the upper threshold of +2.5 in 5DMA for a SELL signal, which could come at any time. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The End of Month commentary will come on Friday this week.

3-1-06 In recovering most of what it lost yesterday, the S&P was up 11 to 1298. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1273 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -160 to -38. We dropped a +689 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. The System will buy with 100% of available funds, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for explanation of these symbols. The System does not allow for "gut-feeling", but I feel we are headed for a significant down move and that the previous high of 1294 will not be breached; therefore I am passing on this BUY signal; the System record will BUY. No one is required to act on any BUY signal, in contradistinction to a SELL signal, which must be acted upon (at least if you are following the System). The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The End of Month commentary will come on Friday this week.

DISCLAIMER: Past results are no guarantee of future results. StockMarketScience is for information and opinion only, and should not be considered stock or market advice. The user is totally responsible for any actions taken as a result of reading this publication, and StockMarketScience assumes NO liability for any losses suffered by anyone based on anything written here.

TRADEMARKS: Standard & Poor's, S&P, S&P100, and S&P500 are registered trademarks of The McGraw Hill Companies, Inc.

The Dow Jones averages are trademarks of Dow Jones & Co.

Nasdaq-100 Trust, "Nasdaq" and related marks are trademarks or service marks of The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc.

This site written and copyright 2002-2006 by Richard L. Field, BA, BSME, MSME, PhD. Field holds a doctorate in Mechanical Engineering (Math minor) and worked in the Space program for 20+ years before retirement. He also taught four years at Texas A&M University.

MAIL: We receive email at richard.field@stockmarketscience.com.

STOCKMARKETSCIENCE

March 2006 Columns