3-31-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: The S&P 500 fell 15 to 848. The minor low of 864 of 3/24/03 that we have been discussing lately was decidedly broken today.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -787 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually rose from -173 to -101; we dropped a -1148 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. Today was an ARM signal (please see Glosssary for any unfamiliar terms). If the S&P closes up tomorrow, that will complete the Arm & Fire for a BUY signal.
Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Shorts looking good, no change today.
3-28-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: The S&P 500 fell 5 to 863. The market is sitting on the minor low of 864 from 3/24/03. Will it hold or will it fall through? Monday should tell.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -132 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +71 to -173; we dropped a +1085 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Monday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We could get a BUY signal Monday. No signals today.
Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Shorts looking OK, no change today.
3-27-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: The S&P 500 fell 1 to 869. The market bounced off the 864 level intra-day, which is a positive; it remains to be seen if the 864 level holds.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -70 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +146 to +71; we dropped a +305 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for one more day due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.
Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Shorts looking OK, no change today.
3-26-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: The S&P 500 fell 5 to 870. The 864 minor bottom on 3/24/03 is important; if the marlet closes below that level, it indicates lower prices in the near term.; I expect the 864 level not to hold.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -393 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +305 to +146; we dropped a +403 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next two days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.
Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Shorts looking OK, no change today.
3-25-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: A bit of a snap-back rally. Query whether this is continuation of an uptrend or a pause on the way back to the bottom. The over-bought state of the 5DMA (see below) and the several coming days of negative bias for 5DMA leads me to expect continuation to the downside. The S&P 500 rose 11 to 875.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +879 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +242 to +305; we dropped a +566 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next three days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.
Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): I scaled-in some small shorts today (selling now and again through the day), since market was up nicely and we had the short sale signal yesterday, but I was unwilling then to sell short after that large decline.
3-24-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: Well this was a cutter, kind of like a mirror image of last week. The S&P 500 fell 32 to 864. We get a SELL signal today (more below). But it was a nice run.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1148 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +762 to +242; we dropped a +1450 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next four days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in the 5DMA and the S&P500, while the 5DMA was above +20 (approx), gives us a SELL signal. The gain on this sequence (three BUY signals and one SELL signal, based on total funds available, was 4%, making our result for the year 2.7% gain, compared to S&P500 -0.6%. The Market State and Results_History pages have been updated.
On the chart of the NASDAQ Composite I see a gap coming off of the bottom of 3/11/03. There is a strong tendendency for gaps to be filled, that is, for the market to return (not necesarily now, but sometime) to the 1280 level.
Short-Sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Since the Short State is Clean and since the downturn in S&P was more than four points, we can sell short today. I did not do so; just couldn't do it! We will keep track of the short sale for you, nonetheless.
3-21-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: A booming advance, with the S&P 500 closing up 20 to 896.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1085 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +559 to +762; we dropped a +72 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next five days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. Yesterday's ARM signal expires since the S&P did not close down today. No signals today.
3-20-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: Another small advance, with the S&P 500 closing up 2 to 876. Isn't it great how the System gets you in at/near the lows and carries you to the highs and then gets you out? We should get a SELL signal any day after an advance, so far, of 5.4% for BUY signal #1 (3/5/03), 5.5% for BUY #2 (3/7) and 9% for BUY #3 (3/12)! You can also see the the virtue of the Long-Purchase state fixed as Dirty in a BEAR market (see Market State and see Glossary for any unfamilar terms), which allow us to have cash for more than one BUY signal by scaling in our purchases. Of course the System is not 100% successful, but over the years our record is better than most of the others (see Summary_Table and Results_History).
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +305 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +723 to +559; we dropped a +1126 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next five days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. Today is an ARM signal, the first half of a SELL signal (please see Glossary for any unfamilar terms). Any down close in S&P tomorrow will be a SELL signal.
We have made the Glossary easier to use by adding a table of contents at the beginning.
3-19-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: A nice advance, with the S&P 500 closing up 8 to 874.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +403 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +638 to +723; we dropped a -24 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next six days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We are well over-bought and could get a SELL signal any day. No signals today.
3-18-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: The market muddled around all day, with the S&P 500 finally closing up 4 to 866.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +566 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +407 to +638; we dropped a -591 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We are well over-bought and should get a SELL signal in a day or two. No signals today.
3-17-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: With a boomer rally on news, the S&P 500 roared ahead by 29 to 863. This cancels our Arm and Fire SELL sequence which was set up on Friday (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms). As we have said many times, do not BUY or SELL on news; BUY and SELL only on signals from the System.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1450 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -99 to +407; we dropped a -1081 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. We are over-bought and should get a SELL signal in a couple days. Since the 5DMA is now above the normal SELL threshold of +20 (approx), the Market State rises from Plunge to Oscillatory. Friday's Arm signal is cancelled by the lack of a downturn in S&P today. The up volume today was more than 10 times the down volume, and some analysts take this as very significant (Bullish), but this is not a part of the Field System.
Long-Term Investors paragraph: I heard today on TV "Is this the start of a new BULL market?". A BULL market will occur (and be declared here) when the market action fulfills the DEFINITION of a BULL market, and not before. There is no ambiguity about this. Please read the Long-term investors page, if you haven't. The earliest a BULL market is likely to be declared is 4/25/03; extraordinarily strong markets between now and 4/25 could make the declaration come sooner. If all the talking heads on TV would subscribe to DEFINITIONS of BULL and BEAR markets, as we do, then the efficacy of these definitions in bringing long-term gains to everyone and avoiding losses could be compared. When they operate out of their opinions, these are useless, and no better than guesses. Definition, data, conclusion- that is the only formula you should consider. That is SCIENCE!
3-14-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: After ebbing and flowing all day, the S&P 500 looked like it was going to close down and give us a SELL signal, but it finally closed up 1 to 833.
While reading of chart patterns is not a part of the Field System, we note them when we see them, as possibly lending confidence to the actions taken by the System. The pattern of the lows in July and October, 2002 and the low of 3/11/03 make a TRIPLE bottom, with the 3/11 value almost equal to the July value, in a kind of mirror pattern about the Oct low, which was slightly lower than the other two. A triple bottom (if this one holds for two weeks) is extremely Bullish, because strong support is evidenced by the repeated bounce off of the 776-800 level. The resistence in this pattern is at about S&P 950. This behavior could be a precursor to the S&P hitting the target needed for our declaration of a new BULL market. We discuss in Long-term Investors page that if we see that the S&P500 is above 847.8 on 4/25/03, a BULL market can be declared.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +72 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -33 to -99; we dropped a +404 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Monday-Wednesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. Since we are in Plunge mode, and the threshold in 5DMA for a SELL signal is -100, and we were above -100 yesterday, then today's downturn in 5DMA is an Arm signal (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms). Any down close Monday will be a Fire signal and a SELL signal.
3-13-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: Thursday the 13th was a good day for the Bulls; the S&P 500 was up 28 to 832. That BUY signal yesterday is looking good. We will know in about two weeks if the apparent successful test of the October lows is complete (if we dont go below the S&P 800 of 3/11/03, we can call it a successful test).
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1126 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -344 to -33; we dropped a -431 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.
3-12-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: The S&P 500 was up 4 to 804, giving us BUY signal #3 (see below).
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -24 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -278 to -344; we dropped a +310 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The up close in S&P500 today is a Fire half-signal, and with the Arm half-signal from yesterday, gives us a BUY signal, #3 (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms). Since we are Long Purchase Dirty (see Glossary>Long..) we BUY with 12% of available funds on BUY #3.
BUY 3# drops the Market State to PLUNGE, meaning the upper threshold for a SELL signal drops to -100 on 5DMA. If we get a normal SELL, with 5DMA rising above +20 (approx) before a SELL signal is seen, the Plunge state will revert to Oscillatory. The Market State page has been updated.
3-11-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: The S&P 500 was up and down around the zero line all day, finally closing down 7 to 801. This is the lowest close since 10/9/02, which was the test of the July low. This is definitely a test of those lows. This will also set up our third BUY signal soon. A up close today would have been BUY signal #3.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -591 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually rose from -335 to -278; we dropped a -880 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. This was an ARM signal (see Glossary>Arm..) Any up close tomorrow in S&P500 will be a BUY signal.
3-10-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: The S&P 500 was down hard, closing down 21 to 807. This is the lowest close since 10/10/02, which was the test of the July low. This is definitely a test of those lows. This will also set up our third BUY signal soon.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1081 (million shares). The down volume today was more than 10 times up volume, which some analysts take as symptomatic of an extreme, and possibly a turning point. (That particular ratio is not a part of the Field System, but I mention it when I see it.) The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -188 to -335; we dropped a -345 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. Since Friday's BUY signal #2 came well after the market closed, we placed BUY orders on the opening today. No signals today.
3-7-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: After being pulled in both directions all day on various News, the S&P 500 finally closed up 7 to 829. I have mentioned here countless times, do not act on News, no matter what it is or how serious; stick to the System faithfully and you will be best off; this is 40 years in the market speaking. The System will tell you when to BUY or SELL.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +404 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose, only considerably after the bell, from -200 to -188; we dropped a +347 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The upturn in S&P500 simultaneously with the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -20 (approx), gives us a second BUY signal. Since we are always Long Purchase Dirty (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms) in a BEAR market, we BUY with 25% of available funds on the second BUY signal. This signal came well after the market closed, so we will have to place orders on the opening tomorrow.
3-6-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: The S&P 500 closed down 8 to 822.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -431 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +4 to -200; we dropped a +587 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.
3-5-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: The S&P 500 closed up 8 to 830. BUY signal today (see below).
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +310 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -139 to +4; we dropped a -403 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Thursday-Friday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in the 5DMA and the S&P500, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -20 (approx), gives us a BUY signal today. Since we are always Long Purchase Dirty in a BEAR market, we BUY with a maximum of 50% of available funds (see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms). The Market State page has been updated with the BUY.
Short-sellers paragraph (Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): We cover (BUY back) today our short sale for a profit. Profits and losses on short sales are not included in the Results_History, since that history is designed to show results for the larger number of users who do not wish to sell short. Some day we will add a special version of results history that includes short trades results.
Long-term Investors page: We have added to the Long-term Investors page a Table showing the 200 Day Moving Average (as a nine month moving average) of the S&P 500 and a discussion of how this will lead to, in due time, the declaration of the next BULL market.
3-4-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: The S&P 500 closed down 13 to 822.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -880 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +105 to -139; we dropped a +341 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.
Short-sellers paragraph (Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): No change.
3-3-03 RICHARD'S DAILY
Dear Reader: The S&P 500 closed down 6 to 835. This was a Fire completion of Arm & Fire (see below) for a SELL.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -345 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually rose from +23 to +105; we dropped a -758 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. Today was a Fire signal (see Glossary>Arm and Fire), giving us completion of the two-step SELL signal, so it is a SELL. The Results_History has been updated. This trade gave a loss of -0.15%, and brings the loss for the year to date to -1.28%, compared with a loss in the S&P500 of -5.1%.
Short-sellers paragraph (Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Since the down move in S&P500 was at least four points, and since the Short state is Clean, we may Sell short today.
DISCLAIMER: Past results are no guarantee of future results. StockMarketScience is for information and opinion only, and should not be considered stock or market advice. The user is totally responsible for any actions taken as a result of reading this publication, and StockMarketScience assumes NO liability for any losses suffered by anyone based on anything written here.
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