5-28-04 Dear Reader: The S&P was down most of the day, then 10 min before close, it was up and down around the zero line. If we see a down close that would be a Short-term SELL signal (more below). The S&P closed down a fraction to 1121. Short-term SELL signal today.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +110 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +595 to +530. We dropped a +439 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias the next five days due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +28, gives a Short-term SELL signal. The gain on this round trip was +0.3%, bringing the result for the year to +4.7%, compared to a gain of 0.3% for the unmanaged S&P500.. We have updated the Market State and Results_Hist-04 pages. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have resumed updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 4; update of that table shows we are below the 40 week MA line). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows we are still above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are still advancing. Several talking heads on TV announce that we are below the 200DMA (implying big trouble ahead or end of BULL market??, they never say)), but they never say the important point I just made. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. I still see about 12 weeks before we get close to a BEAR market signal, provided the S&P500 does not go lower than the recent minor low of  1084 on 5/17/04. The minor danger point (for an end to the BULL market) is at approximately 1050 on S&P500, the major danger point is at S&P=988 (these data will change week-by-week, stay tuned). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +24.8% (+31.6% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers Paragraph: Since we are in OSCILLATORY State, and since the Short-sale State is Clean (since 4/15/04) (see Market_State) we would be allowed to sell short on this signal if we like, except that today's decline was less than 4 S&P points (it was down a fraction). So by the Four Point Rule we cant sell short today. (See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.)

5-27-04 Dear Reader: The S&P was up +6. to 1121. This market just wont go down. Watch out tomorrow, we'll have jinxed it by that assertion.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +652 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +437 to +595. We dropped a -140 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a negative bias Friday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. We are now over-bought, based on a standard that +400 represents the threshold for over-bought. No signals today.

5-26-04 Dear Reader: The S&P had a small move, up +2. to 1115.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +260 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +398 to +437. We dropped a +65 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We are now over-bought, based on a standard that +400 represents the threshold for over-bought. The upper selling threshold in Oscillatory State is +28 for 5DMA; we are now above that, which will probably give a SELL signal when the S&P next closes down. No signals today.

5-25-04 Dear Reader: The S&P had a very nice rally, up +18. to 1113.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1180 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +302 to +398. We dropped a +701 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior.  The upper threshold in Oscillatory State is +28; we are now above that, which will probably give a SELL signal when the S&P next closes down. No signals today.

5-24-04 Dear Reader: The S&P was up +2. to 1095.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +44 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +13 to +302. We dropped a -999 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large positive bias today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior.  The upper threshold in Oscillatory State is +28; we are now above that, which will probably give a SELL signal when the S&P next closes down. No signals today.

5-21-04 Dear Reader: The S&P was up +4. to 1094.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +439 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -89 to +13. We dropped a -70 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Monday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior.  The upper threshold in Oscillatory State is +28, we are almost there, which will give a SELL signal soon thereafter. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (more than 12 weeks) of clear sailing in this BULL market; the minor danger point is at approximately 1050 on S&P500, the major danger point is at S&P=988 (these data will change week-by-week, stay tuned). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +24.7% (+31.5% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

5-20-04 Dear Reader: The S&P was up a fraction to 1089.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -140 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -77 to -89. We dropped a -81 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Friday-Monday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior.  No signals today.

5-19-04 Dear Reader: It has been two months since my puter blew up. Long story. I'm back and will try and catch up the more important days in the last two months, written ex post facto. Since I fried my hard drive, I had to import some new web site software and download the March 15 issue of SMS which has been the last post all this time. Some pages may change format as a result of this, and some zits in appearance or function may appear; please bear with us.

The S&P declined today, after being up nicely all day, down 3 to 1089. We have been in Oscillatory State all this time.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +64.5 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -81 to -77. We dropped a +44 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Thursday-Monday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The last BUY signal was on 5/3/04. A repeat BUY signal occurred on 5/11/04. We are definitely in an Intermediate Downtrend, defined as lasting more than a month or two. I am slowly formulating some system for the intermediate term. We have Short Term (1-2 weeks) and Long Term (measured in years) Systems, but have not had one for intermediate term. The chart pattern of the S&P currently shows lower lows and lower highs over a period of  two months, starting with the high of 3/5/04 (1157). The VIX (volatility index) reached a low of about 13.6 on 3/5/04, indicating a peak in optimism. So far we are adding the rule that when we get an Intermediate Down Trend (using the S&P 500 chart and the VIX behavior aforementioned), we change the Long_Purchase State to Dirty, meaning that we scale in our purchases; 50% of available funds on first BUY signal, then 25% more on second BUY signal, etc. (Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.) No signals today.