5-31-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed down by 7 to 1192. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -301 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +214 to +59. We dropped a +477 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 5/26/05. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The round trip result was -0.5%. That brings our result for the year to -1.6%, compared to the S&P change of -1.7%. The result does not change the Run-5 Market State; the RunLite BUY signal immediately lapsed into Run-5 after its appearance. Since this was the first RunLite BUY signal in a (possible) series, and it was not profitable, the RunLite Flag would change to Dirty; however, it was already Dirty, so there is no change. The Results_History_04- has been updated for the round trip. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. End of Month Summary will appear this Friday.

5-27-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed up by 1 to 1199.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +269 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +117 to +214. We dropped a -218 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. I should have mentioned yesterday that the System position is investment of 100% of available funds on a RunLite signal, and thus the Results_History will reflect that. The 50% investment was just my personal inclination at the time. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of April, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, but that the S&P is below that average line. We are below the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +2.8% using S&P only as the basis, or +2.3% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1114 (bear bogey) for two weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal, after which we see rising bear bogies for a few weeks, which means it will be harder for the market to stay bullish. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. 

5-26-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed up by 8 to 1198, violating the upside bogey and giving us a Short-term RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +712 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +78 to +117. We dropped a +517 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the S&P exceeded the recent closing minor high (bogey) of 1194.1, set on 5/24/05, by more than 1.5 points while in Run-5 State, we get a Short-term RunLite BUY signal. Using 50% of available funds for equities (just out of caution), we bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning  of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the RunLite BUY signal. The RunLite Flag, shown on Market State page as Dirty, does not affect the first occurrance of RunLite Buy, only the 2nd and subsequent RunLite signals.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. I should have mentioned yesterday that we needed to do a notional (on paper only) short sale so that we can determine when or if we get a RunLite Buy signal, which we got today.

5-25-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed down by 4 to 1190. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -360  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +377 to +78. We dropped a +1134 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA and S&P, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a short-term SELL signal. We sold the positions we bought on 5/16/05 (SPY, QQQQ and IWM-please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols) for a profit of  1.1%, considering that we had only 50% of funds available for equities at risk. That brings our result for the year to -1.0%, compared to the S&P change of -1.8%. The Results_History_04- has been updated for the round trip. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. We may not sell short this sell signal since we are in RUN-5 State, which "does not allow" short sales.

5-24-05 Dear Readers: The forces of good and evil struggled up to the last minute, back and forth across the zero line. Since we needed a down close for the SELL signal, we were nip and tuck the last hour. The S&P finally closed up by less than a point to 1194.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -26  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +523 to +377. We dropped a +704 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA while the S&P did not turn down is called an ARM (first half of an ARM & FIRE SELL) signal, this is a repeat ARM signal, so any downturn tomorrow in S&P (regardless of what 5DMA does) will complete the FIRE for a SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-23-05 Dear Readers: A nice advance,  the S&P closed higher by 5 to 1194.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +477  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually fell from +560 to +523. We dropped a +665 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. With the 5DMA above 400, we say the market is over-bought. The downturn in 5DMA while the S&P did not turn down is called an ARM (first half of an ARM & FIRE SELL) signal. Any downturn tomorrow in S&P (regardless of what 5DMA does) will complete the FIRE for a SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-20-05 Dear Readers: A dull down day,  the S&P closed lower by 2 to 1189.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -218  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually rose from +447 to +560. We dropped a -786 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. With the 5DMA above 400, we say the market is over-bought. We are now above the upper threshold for a sell signal, which could come anytime the S&P and the 5DMA both turn down. We did not get a SELL signal since the 5DMA was up on the day. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is now back above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of April, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, but that the S&P is below that average line. We are below the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +2.0% using S&P only as the basis, or +1.2% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. It is nice to once again be back in positive territory  for the year. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1108 (bear bogey) for two weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal, after which we see rising bear bogies for a few weeks, which means it will be harder for the market to stay bullish. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. 

5-19-05 Dear Readers: A lazy day, up and down a little, the S&P closed up 5 to 1191.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +517  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +150 to +447. We dropped a -969 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. With the 5DMA above 400, we say the market is over-bought. We are now above the upper threshold for a sell signal, which could come anytime the S&P and the 5DMA both turn down. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-18-05 Dear Readers: Another nice rally, the S&P was up 12 to 1186. Intermediate Down Trend  (IDT) changed to False today (downtrend is over...see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1134  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -30 to +150. We dropped a +236 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above the upper threshold for a sell signal, which could come anytime the S&P and the 5DMA both turn down. Today's advance changes the IDT from True to False, meaning the IDT is over. This comes from the S&P showing rising minor bottoms and rising minor tops. The rising bottoms were: 1143.2 on 4/29/05 and 1154.1 on 5/13/05, and the rising tops are: 1178.8 on 5/9/05 and any day after today. The low close of 1137.5 we saw on 4/20/05 appears to be a major low. The Long-Purchase State (LPS) changes from Dirty to Clean with the change in IDT. This means that, in the future, we can purchase stocks with 100% of available cash for equities, not 50%, on the first BUY signal. The Market State page has been updated for the IDT and LPS changes. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-17-05 Dear Readers: We started down but then closed up, the S&P was up 8 to 1174. BUY signal today (but see next paragraph). We have today the first instance when the volume figures given on PBS (Public Broadcasting System) change a market signal. Yesterday we had a BUY signal based on the apparent rise in the 5DMA at the close of the market (+45 minutes). When we today correct the volume figures using those from PBS, we nullify the BUY signal. So this will be a good test (although only one data point) of whether we are making a mistake by using the close of market volume figures. I always correct the previous day's volume figures to the PBS values. Apparently PBS uses volume on the NYSE only and the close of market volume includes NYSE stocks that are traded elsewhere, and so always has volume figures that are higher than PBS.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +704  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -356 to -30. We dropped a -925 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in the S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought yesterday so we will ignore this signal (see first paragraph today, above). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-16-05 Dear Readers: In a nice move, the S&P closed up 12 to 1166. BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +665  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -342 to -356. We dropped a +736 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in the S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. The Whipsaw State changed to clean on 5/9/05, so we may once again BUY. The Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) is still in effect, meaning we buy with only 50% of available funds for equities. [Please see statements in 5/17/05 column on the volume figures and the BUY signal.] The IDT will change to False once the S&P close exceeds the last bogey of 1178.8 set on 5/9/05, since we will by then have seen rising minor tops and rising minor bottoms. We bought using 50% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ, and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-13-05 Dear Readers:  I thought Friday the 13th would turn out to be lucky, but the S&P closed down 5 to 1154.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -786  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -188 to -342. We dropped a -16 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. I like to see this down action when we have no positions on, so that we may buy at lower levels when the signal comes. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is now back below the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is below that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of April, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, but that the S&P is below that average line. We are below the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is -1.0% using S&P only as the basis, or -2.0% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1100 (bear bogey) for three weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal, after which we see rising bear bogies for a few weeks, which means it will be harder for the market to stay bullish.

5-12-05 Dear Readers:  We got whacked (those Short-term oriented investors who have positions on); the S&P closed down 12 to 1159. This may be the close that touches the Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) I wrote about yesterday. If it is, then we can expect a good advance starting soon.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -969  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -39 to -188. We dropped a -225 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a neutral bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a small negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. I like to see this down action when we have no positions on, so that we may buy at lower levels when the signal comes. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-11-05 Dear Readers:  A modest advance, the S&P closed up 5 to 1171.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +236  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +177 to -39. We dropped a +1313 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA for a buy signal, which could come as soon as tomorrow if S&P and 5DMA both turn up. The S&P intra-day touched 1159, where the Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) line is. We could still get a close around 1159 to really neaten up the pattern. If we get a big advance from here, S&P rallying above 1180, we will have a pattern of rising bottoms and rising tops, which are the criteria for cancelling the IDT. When IDT is false we may buy with 100% of available funds for equities, if we like. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-10-05 Dear Readers:  We got whacked today, the S&P closed down 13 to 1166. Sterile Short-term Sell signal today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -925  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +342 to +177. We dropped a -97 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a large negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a huge positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal, but it is sterile since we have no positions on.  The sell signal we got on 5/6/05, I failed to note, was not followed by a buy signal on 5/9/05, so the Whipsaw State now returns to Clean, meaning we may buy the next buy signal.The Market State page  has been changed for this. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-9-05 Dear Readers:  A nice advance, the S&P closed up 8 to 1179.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +736  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +326 to +342. We dropped a +653 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above 400, we say the market is overbought and due for a decline, perhaps back to the 1160 level in S&P. No signals today. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA did not occur when the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, so there is no BUY signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-6-05 Dear Readers:  Another dull day, but in the last few minutes the S&P closed down 1 to 1171. This generated a sterile SELL signal (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -16  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +480 to +326. We dropped a +758 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal, but it is sterile since we have no positions on. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is now back above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of April, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, but that the S&P is below that average line. We are below the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +0.4% using S&P only as the basis, or -1.5% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The S&P500 needs to stay above about 1100 (bear bogey) for three weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal, after which we see rising bear bogies for a few weeks, which means it will be harder for the market to stay bullish.

Short Sellers Paragraph. We are not "allowed" to sell short on today's sell signal since we are in Market State Run-5, in which no short sales are allowed.

5-5-05 Dear Readers:  FTP trouble is now fixed, thanks to my computer wizard friend, meaning you can now see what I write everyday. The S&P closed down 3 to 1173. We would expect retracement back to the Intermediate Down Trend line, in the vicinity of our old friend 1161 S&P.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -225  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually rose from +297 to +480. We dropped a -1141 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-next Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. The downturn in S&P was not matched by a downturn in 5DMA, so no sell signal was given. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-4-05 Dear Readers:  My jury duty is over. FTP trouble is still with me. The S&P closed up 14 to 1176. Today's action breaks the Intermediate Down Trend line, and gives us our first suspicion that the IDT is over (IDT changing to false). We are due for a sell signal, but this market might run up to 1190 which is the next resistance level before turning down.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1313  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +52 to +297. We dropped a +90 from the average from six days ago, giving a slight negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a huge positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a huge negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P today would complete the second half of the ARM & FIRE buy sequence begun yesterday, but we must ignore the buy signal since we are in Whipsaw State Dirty. But we do need to raise the Market State to Run-5 from OSCILLatory, since we busted the short sale bogey of 1162.1 set on 4/25/05. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short Sellers paragraph. We had to cover the short positions today since the sell bogey that established them (1162 on 4/25/05 was violated on the upside. This led to a significant loss, but we dont record short results in the results history. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

5-3-05 Dear Readers: I have jury duty, dont know how long it will last, so post, if it comes at all, will be late, possibly for a week and a half. Also FTP trouble has prevented me from posting for some days now. The S&P closed down 1 to 1161. I think the path of least resistance for the near future is down. 

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -97  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -106 to +52. We dropped a -890 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today the 5DMA was up but the S&P was down; this is an ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE) buy signal. But since we have Whipsaw State is Dirty, we will go Clean on that state when we get a sell signal followed by a day when we do not get a buy signal. Since we are above the upper threshold of +19 in 5DMA, we could get a sell signal as early as tomorrow.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short Sellers paragraph. We are sitting tight and not buying-in the shorts. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

5-2-05 Dear Readers: Up and down today, a mild S&P performance, closed up 5 to 1162. I think the path of least resistance for the near future is down. 

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +653  (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -76 to -106. We dropped a +803 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today (havent we had enough signals lately!). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short Sellers paragraph. We are sitting tight and not buying-in the shorts. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.