5-31-06  In a nice rebound to yesterday, the S&P rose by 10 to 1270.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1715 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +18 to +408. We dropped a -237 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above the +400 level in 5DMA so we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short sellers paragraph. Our short sale of yesterday is not yet in jeapordy. The previous bogey is at 1280.2 (set on 5/26/06). If the S&P closes above that bogey plus 1.5 S&P points (or 1280.2+1.5=1281.7) we will be obliged by our rules to cover the short (close out the position).

5-30-06  The S&P was down hard by 20 to 1260. Short-term Sell signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1205 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +42 to +18. We dropped a -1084 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. The bias was so large that we thought even the hard down day would not generate a sell signal. But it did. An Intermediate Down Trend pattern is also very likely developing.We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 5/19/06. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The purchase/sale round trip result was a loss of  0.5%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +2.1%. The SELL has been noted on the Market State page. The Results_History 04- has also been updated for the trades.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short sellers paragraph. Since we are in OSCILLatory State, we can sell short the next sell signal. We sold short a token amount of SPY. We dont recommend short selling to the average investor, due to the added risk.

5-26-06  The S&P closed up again by 7 to 1280.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +770 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -4 to +42. We dropped a +538 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +4.9%, using S&P as the basis, or 3.4% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

5-25-06  The S&P closed up strongly by 14 to 1273.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1245 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -419 to -4. We dropped a -829 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-24-06 Finally an up day. The S&P closed up by 2 to 1259.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -484 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -655 to -419. We dropped a -1661 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28 (in OSCILLATORY State), gives a Short-term BUY signal, but it is Sterile since we are fully invested from the buy on 5/19/06. We were below the 200DMA line yesterday, but the 200DMA line is still advancing, so we still have a BULL market. A decline below the 200DMA line and then an upturn is said to be a buy signal in some systems, if the 200DMA line is still advancing. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-23-06 This was a bit of an unbelievable day. The S&P was up strongly all day but closed DOWN by 6 to 1257. Market State falls to OSCILLATORY (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -237 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -639 to -655. We dropped a -159 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we have a position on in Run-5 state and since the bogey, set at 1261.8 on 5/18/06, after which we bought,  was violated today by more than 1.5 S&P points, we lower the Market State to OSCILLATORY from  Run-5. This changes the thresholds in 5DMA at which buy and sell signals are given. We do not sell out our long positions on a BULL market bogey violation. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-22-06 The S&P was down at the close by 5 to 1262.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1084 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -477 to -639. We dropped a -273 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We almost saw a drop in Market State from Run-5 to Oscillatory, which would have occurred if today's close had been 1.5 S&P points below the bogey, set at 1261.8 on 5/18/06. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-19-06 The S&P was up at the close by 5 to 1267. Finally a Short-term BUY signal (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +538 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -834 to -477. We dropped a -1247 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous rise in S&P and 5DMA, while 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought, with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. It looks like we are in the beginnings of an Intermediate Down Trend; it should take several weeks to complete the pattern and change our buys from using 100% of available funds for equities to 50%, on the first buy signal.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +3.8%, using S&P as the basis, or 2.5% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. We are only 10 points above the 200DMA line at 1259.9, but we are 30 points above the bogey at 1230.4. The S&P would have to fall below the bogey for a BEAR market to be declared. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar term32

5-18-06 After a brisk opening, the S&P was down at the close by 9 to 1262. We should get a BUY signal any day.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -829 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -916 to -834. We dropped a -1242 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Thursday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The rise in 5DMA, while it was below the lower threshold of -5, but while the S&P did not rise, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM&FIRE BUY signal). Any upturn tomorrow in S&P will complete the BUY signal with a FIRE. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-17-06 A bad at black rock, the S&P was down really hard at the close by 22 to 1270. That Short-term SELL signal of 5/10/06 is really looking good. We should get a BUY signal any day.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1661 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -625 to -916. We dropped a -206 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA needed for a Short-term buy signal, which could come when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. Also we are below -400 in 5DMA, so we say the market is oversold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-16-06 After a hint of an up day, the S&P was down at the close by 2 to 1292.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -159 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -577 to -625. We dropped a +82 from the average from six days ago, giving a slight negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA needed for a Short-term buy signal, which could come when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. Also we are below -400 in 5DMA, so we say the market is oversold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-15-06 After being down most of the day, the S&P was up at the close by 3 to 1295.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -273 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -504 to -577. We dropped a +94 from the average from six days ago, giving a slight negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA needed for a Short-term buy signal, which could come when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. Also we are below -400 in 5DMA, so we say the market is oversold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-12-06 Another bad downer, the S&P was off today by 15 to 1291. Really fell good about our 5/10/06 Short-term SELL signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1247 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -57 to -504. We dropped a +988 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA needed for a Short-term buy signal, which could come when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. Also we are below -400 in 5DMA, so we say the market is oversold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +5.8%, using S&P as the basis, or 4.6% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

5-11-06 The S&P was down hard today by 17 to 1306. Really feeling good about yesterday's ARM&FIRE SELL signal. Let's hear it one more time for ARM&FIRE! I dont think any other advisor in the world has ARM&FIRE. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1242 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +274 to -57. We dropped a +411 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA needed for a buy signal, which could come when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-10-06 The S&P was down today by 2 to 1323. We got the Short-term FIRE SELL signal (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -206 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +235 to +274. We dropped a -397 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P, despite the rise in 5DMA, after yesterday's ARM, give a FIRE, for completion of the Short-term ARM&FIRE SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 5/5/06. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The purchase/sale round trip result was a slight loss of  0.2%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +2.6%. The loss re-affirms the RunLite Flag as Dirty, which has been noted with the SELL on the Market State page. The Results_History 04- has also been updated for the trades. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-9-06 A dull day, and it was touch and go the last half hour, the S&P was up today by less than a point to 1325.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +82 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +348 to +235. We dropped a +647 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in 5DMA, while it was above the upper threshold of +2.5, while the S&P did not decline, gives an ARM (first half of an ARM&FIRE SELL signal). Any decline in S&P tomorrow will complete the signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-8-06 The S&P was down today by 1 to 1325.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +94million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +286 to +348We dropped a -218 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-5-06 The S&P was up today by 14 to 1326.  Short-term RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +988 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +148 to +286. We dropped a +300 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The previous S&P bogey (recent minor high) was 1313.2 (seen on 5/2/06), to which we add 1.5 points to get a marker above which the S&P must close to get the Short-term RunLite BUY signal. We got this today. We bought, with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +8.7%, using S&P as the basis, or 8.3% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

5-4-06 The S&P was up today by 4 to 1312.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +411 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +68 to +148. We dropped a +10 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. If we had had a rise in S&P to 1314.7 or higher, we would have had a RunLite buy signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-3-06 The S&P was down today by 5 to 1308. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -397 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +195 to +68. We dropped a +238 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 4/28/06. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The purchase/sale round trip result was a slight loss of  0.2%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +2.9%. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-2-06 In a nice advance to a 5 yr high, the S&P was up today by 8 to 1313.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +647 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -12 to +195. We dropped a -387 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above the upper threshold in 5DMA of +2.5, so we could get a sell signal when both S&P and 5DMA turn down. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-1-06 The S&P was down today by 5 to 1305.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -218 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -62 to -12. We dropped a -471 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.