11-28-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was not far from the zero line on this "holiday" short session, was up a little at the close, then, after the close, late settlements forced it down by less than a point to 1058.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +87 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +320 to +450. We dropped a -561 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next five days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We are now over-bought, since the 5DMA is above 400. Expecting a Short-term SELL signal any day. No signals today (S&P turned down but 5DMA did not).

Long-Term Investors End-of-week and End-of-Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for November 2003, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (more than 12 weeks) of clear sailing. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +17.7%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

11-26-03 Dear Reader: Up a little, down a little, a boring day, the S&P500 closed up by 5 to 1058. Certainly an example of "holiday" trading, perhaps has "gone the wrong way" and we will see a decline on Friday.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +503 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +297 to +320. We dropped a +387 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today. Happy Turkey Day tomorrow to everyone! See you on Friday.

11-25-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up by 2 to 1054.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +519 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +90 to +297. We dropped a -518 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. We are now in the SELL range on 5DMA; we could get a SELL signal any day. No signals today.

11-24-03 Dear Reader: A boomer rally, the S&P500 closed up by 17 to 1052. I'm glad for that BUY signal last Friday! Are you participating in these rallies, and avoiding the declines? This is what this System is all about. I'm wondering if this is another example of the "market going the wrong way on holidays." As we get closer to Thanksgiving, this will become clearer. As long as we are making a few bucks, it doesn't matter. And the System will get us out at the proper time.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +916 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -259 to +90. We dropped a -826 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We are actually now in the SELL range on 5DMA. It would be nice to get a couple more days of rally before we have to sell, though. No signals today.

11-21-03 Dear Reader: We got a BUY signal by the skin of our teeth (see next paragraph); it was nip and tuck all the last hour; finally the S&P500 closed up by 1 to 1035.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +224 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -387 to -259. We dropped a -418 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Monday/Tuesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives us a Short-term BUY signal (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms). We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQ, and IWM (please see ETF page for explanation of symbols). The Market State page has been updated for the BUY.

Long-Term Investors End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (about 11 weeks) of clear sailing. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +15.2%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

11-20-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was up most of the day, and I thought we would get a BUY signal, but suddenly the market fell and the S&P500 closed down by 9 to 1034.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -561 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -268 to -387. We dropped a +33 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative/neutral bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday-Tuesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today. We could get a BUY signal as early as tomorrow, if the S&P is up.

11-19-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was up nicely by 8 to 1042. It may seem like a BUY signal, but it isn't (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +387 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV actually fell from -166 to -268. We dropped a +899 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a negative/neutral bias Thursday due to dropping a small positive number from the average from six days prior. The upturn in S&P500 may seem like a BUY signal, but since the 5DMA did not turn up, we did not get the two conditions necessary for a signal. It also is not an ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE) since the 5DMA must turn up FIRST and the S&P turn the next day for that scenario to apply in a BUY signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. No signals today. We could get a BUY signal as early as tomorrow, if the S&P is up and the OBV is modestly up also.

11-18-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was up early, but closed down 10 to 1034. I'm glad we got out on last Friday's (Short-term) SELL signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -518 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -119 to -166. We dropped a -283 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

11-17-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was down hard earlier on news, but closed down 7 to 1044. Glad we got out on Friday's (Short-term) SELL signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -826 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -63 to -119. We dropped a -544 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We could get a BUY signal any day. No signals today.

We are seeing a lot of scandal about short term trading at mutual funds, which is disallowed to individuals but was/is used to advantage by insiders. Aside from the legal and moral issues involved, I have always recommended that one not use mutual funds for the Short-term System because of the funds' hostility toward short-term traders. We use the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) which have no ruler-wielding school-marms to slap our hands.

11-14-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was down 8 to 1050. SELL signal today (see next paragraph). Obviously we should not have ignored yesterday's SELL signal (see yesterday's column).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -418 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +22 to -63. We dropped a +5 from the average from six days ago, giving us a neutral bias for today. We will have a positive bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. Now we are again in the buying range on 5DMA, but if any gain tomorrow is smaller than 9.7 S&P points, we will ignore it as a whipsaw. If 9.7 points or greater, it will be a RunLite BUY signal. Today the downturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a Short-term SELL signal. This round trip netted us a loss of 0.77%. This brings our net gain for the year to +20.86%, versus 19.4% for S&P500. Market State and Results_History have been updated. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (about 12 weeks) of clear sailing. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +16.9%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

11-13-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was up and down around the zero line near the close, giving us palpitations. It finally closed down less than one point to 1059.  We did not want to see a SELL signal the day after yesterday's BUY signal. Technically this is a SELL signal but I am going out on a limb and ignoring this. We will know soon enough if this is a mistake. If we sold today, I expect we could easily get a RunLight BUY signal tomorrow, as the S&P would have to close up by only 1.7 points to generate a BUY signal. That would be a lot of turmoil, with some attendant losses, so I am ignoring today's signal. We may have to have a rule that says the S&P must be down by more than 0.2 points for it to be a SELL signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +33 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +98 to +22. We dropped a +414 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE SELL signal). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

11-12-03 Dear Reader: A boomer rally today, the S&P500 was up 12 to 1059.  BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +899 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -76 to +98. We dropped a +27 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative/neutral bias for today. We will have a negative bias Thursday-Friday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We are actually now into the SELL range, being above +2.5 on 5DMA. Let's hope we dont get a SELL before we can make a few bucks! The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives us a Short-term BUY signal (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms). We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQ, and IWM (please see ETF page for explanation of symbols). The Market State page has been updated for the BUY.

11-11-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was down less than a point to 1047.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -283 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV actually rose from -91 to -76. We dropped a -355 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday-Friday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives us an ARM signal (first half of an ARM & FIRE BUY signal, please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms). Any upturn tomorrow in S&P500 will give the second half of the signal and generate a BUY.

11-10-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was down 6 to 1047.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -544 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +159 to -91. We dropped a +706 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We are now in the BUYing range (being below -5 on 5DMA) so we could get a BUY signal as early as tomorrow. No signals today.

11-7-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was down 5 to 1053.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +5 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +180 to +159. We dropped a +109 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

This dull trading lately is bullish, because we are wearing down the over-bought condition as expressed by the 5DMA, without a major decline in S&P500. In a few days we will get into the BUY range again.

Long-Term Investors End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (about 13 weeks) of clear sailing. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +17.2%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

11-6-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was up 6 to 1058.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +413 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +97 to +180. We dropped a -4 from the average from six days ago, giving us a neutral bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday-Monday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. Even though we had upturns in both S&P500 and 5DMA, we were not below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA (for our Run-5 state), so there are no (BUY) signals today.

Upon checking the Results_History table, we discovered an error that changes the cumulative gain for the year. We now show gain for the year to date as 21.63%. The error was in recording a RunLite trade in May 2003 that should have been ignored since it did not follow a Run-5 round trip (buy-sell).

11-5-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was down 1 to 1052.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +27 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +186 to +97. We dropped a +475 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a neutral bias Thursday due to dropping a small number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

11-4-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was down 6 to 1053. SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -355 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +425 to +186. We dropped a +837 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a Short-term SELL signal. The Market State is Run-5. This round trip netted us a small profit of 0.25%. This brings our net gain for the year to 21.63%, versus 19.7% for S&P500. Market State and Results_History have been updated. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

There is no need to do a notional (on-paper only) short sale here since if the bogey is violated, a jump to RunLite again is not allowed (only the first call to RunLite is accepted). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

11-3-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was up nicely, closing up 8 to 1059. If this rally continues for a couple days, I will be very happy about the RunLight BUY signal of 10/31.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +706 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +359 to +425. We dropped a +380 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. With the 5DMA over 400, we are said to be over-bought, and could get a decline any day (with probable SELL signal). No signals today.