11-30-04 Dear Readers: The S&P500 again fell 4 to 1175.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -230 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +213 to +64. We dropped a +514 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a short-term SELL signal, albeit a sterile one, since we have no positions on. Sterile signals are not recorded in the Results_History. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
If we had acted on the BUY signal of 11/22, which we declared a whipsaw and not to be acted upon, we would have lost a bit, buying the S&P at 1177.2 on 11/22 and selling today at 1174.6 for a loss of 0.2%.
11-29-04 Dear Readers: The S&P500 fell 4 to 1179.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -220 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +100 to +213. We dropped a -787 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-26-04 Dear Readers: A dull half-day was expected. The S&P500 rose 1 to 1183.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +118 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +87 to +100. We dropped a +58 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The ARM signal from yesterday expired since the S&P did turn down today. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of October, and that table shows for the first time in a couple years, a decline in the nine month moving average; we expect this average to turn up again at the end of November if current prices hold. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 week MA is what we use for the BEAR signals. No change in our positions; we are long SPY and QQQ in equal amounts using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The gain in these positions since the BULL market beginning on 11/5/04 is 1.4% using S&P only as the basis, or 2.3% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The S&P500 needs to stay above 1157. for the next two weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal.
11-24-04 Dear Readers: The S&P500 was lackluster today, rising 5 to 1182.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +492 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +156 to +87. We dropped a +835 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday (Thursday is a holiday) due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in 5DMA, while above the upper threshold of +2.5, while the S&P did not decline, gives an ARM signal (first half of Arm & Fire SELL signal). It will be a sterile signal since we have no positions on. Any decline in S&P on Friday will complete the FIRE, for a Short-term SELL signal, albeit sterile. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-23-04 Dear Readers: The S&P500 was flat today, falling less than a point to 1177.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +161 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +1 to +156. We dropped a -612 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday (Thursday is a holiday) due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above the upper threshold for a sell signal, so we could get a sell soon. That may mean that the buy signal we didnt act on yesterday would have been ok, and profitable. We'll know soon enough. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-22-04 Dear Readers: The S&P500 was up nicely today, rising by 7 to 1177.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +514 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -80 to +1. We dropped a +109 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal today. But this is a Whipsaw since Friday we had a SELL signal, albeit a sterile one. So we have a slight ambiguity; should we BUY here or wait another day? We will know the answer to this in a week or two. For the record we are not buying here. The Market State page has been updated for the Whipsaw. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-19-04 Dear Readers: The S&P500 was down hard today, closing down 13 to 1170.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -787 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +246 to -80. We dropped a +840 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the threshold of -5 for a BUY signal, which could come in a few days. I am glad that our 1.5 point rule saved us from buying yesterday on what came close to being a RunLite BUY signal. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Sterile Short-term SELL signal; sterile because we have no positions on. Please see Glossary >RunLite for any unfamiliar terms.
Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA, which is nice, but not necessary to the definition. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The last entry in Table 4 shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page was updated for the month of October, and that table shows for the first time in a couple years, a decline in the nine month moving average; we expect this average to turn up again at the end of November if current prices hold. We are above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line, but the 40 week MA is what we use for the BEAR signals. No change in our positions; we are long SPY and QQQ in equal amounts using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The gain in these positions since the BULL market beginning on 11/5/04 is 0.6% using S&P only as the basis, or 1.1% using 50% of SPY and 50% of QQQ for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The S&P500 needs to stay above 1145. for the next two weeks to avoid a BEAR market signal.
11-18-04 Dear Readers: The S&P500 was near unchanged most of the day, finally closing up 2 to 1184.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +58 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +374 to +246. We dropped a +696 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The advance today came close to a RunLite BUY signal, but not quite. We needed a close of 1185.7, or 1.5 points above the previous bogey of 1184.2, set 11/12/04, while in Run-5 market state (which we are in), to give a Short-term RunLite BUY signal. No signals today; an advance of 2.1 S&P points or more tomorrow will give a RunLite BUY signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-17-04 Dear Readers: The S&P500 was up 7 to 1182.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +835 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +245 to +374. We dropped a +192 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The advance today came close to a RunLite BUY signal, but not quite. We needed a close of 1185.7, or 1.5 points above the previous bogey of 1184.2, set 11/12/04, while in Run-5 market state (which we are in), to give a Short-term RunLite BUY signal. No signals today; an advance of 3.8 S&P points or more tomorrow will give a RunLite BUY signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-16-04 Dear Readers: The S&P500 was down 8 to 1175.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -612 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +393 to +245. We dropped a +130 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today's simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, leads to a Sterile Short-term SELL signal; sterile because we have no positions on. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms
Short-sellers paragraph. We can not sell short on today's decline since we are in Market State RUN-5, in which short sales are not permitted (too risky). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-15-04 Dear Readers: The market was boring today. The S&P500 was down less than a point to 1184.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +109 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +341 to +393. We dropped a -151 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No BUY/SELL signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
November Columns before 11/15/04 have been lost. sorry.
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This site written and copyright 2002-2004 by Richard L. Field, BA, BSME, MSME, PhD. Field holds a doctorate in Mechanical Engineering (Math minor) and worked in the Space program for 20+ years before retirement. He also taught four years at Texas A&M University.
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