11-30-05  The S&P made a decisive down move, lower by 8 at 1250.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -470. (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from 126 to -83.  We dropped a +576 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We are now below the lower threshold in 5DMA of -5 for a BUY signal, which could come any day now. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-29-05  The S&P was virtually unchanged at 1257.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +56. (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from 267 to 126. We dropped a +757 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-28-05 Finally a down move. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). The S&P was down 10 to 1257.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -689. (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from 525 to 267.  We dropped a +600 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous down turn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. It is sterile since we have no positions on. Soon we should get a BUY signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-25-05 Another advance today in the short holiday session, the S&P was up 3 to 1268. They say the market goes the "wrong way" on holiday-dominated trading sessions such as this one, meaning that the pros have taken the day off and the amateurs are trading. Thus some would say today's direction is a harbinger of a long-overdue Short-term down trend.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +135. (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from 710 to 525.  We dropped a +1061 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is above +400, so we say the market is over-bought. The decline in 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, while the S&P was up, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE Short-term SELL signal). Any decline Monday in S&P will complete the signal for a SELL (but it will be sterile since we have no positions on). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. The nine month moving average shows a BULL market, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. I am bringing back the weekly feature, the Bear Bogey table, which will now serve as a BULL Bogey table. These are the S&P values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

11-23-05 Another advance today, the S&P was up 4 to 1266.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +555. (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from 615 to 710.  We dropped a +81 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is above +400, so we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-22-05    Another advance today, the S&P was up 6 to 1261.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +576. (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from 403 to 615.  We dropped a -485 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is above +400, so we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-21-05    Today the S&P was up 7 to 1255.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +757. (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from 217 to 403.  We dropped a -174 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is above +400, so we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. It is disheartening to see the advances and we not participating, but we will follow the System rules, and should get a System buy signal soon. We neglected to mention Friday that the Market State was elevated from OSCILLatory to Run-5. You  might want to re-read Friday's column.

11-18-05    Today the S&P was up 4  to 1247.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +874. (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from 187 to 217.  We dropped a +452 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today the S&P exceeded the high that it made on 8/3/05, so that elevated the Market State from OSCILLatory to Run-5. We have updated the Market State page for this change. This changes the 5DMA values at which buy and sell signals occur. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. The nine month moving average shows a BULL market, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. I am bringing back the weekly feature, the Bear Bogey table, which will now serve as a BULL Bogey table. These are the S&P values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

11-17-05    Today the S&P was up 12 to 1243.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1061. (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from 65 to 187.  We dropped a +452 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. This was not a BUY signal because the 5DMA was not below the lower threshold of -28 when the upturn in S&P and 5DMA occurred. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-16-05    Today the S&P was up 2 to 1231.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +81 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  fell from 116 to 65.  We dropped a +334 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-15-05  BULL Market resumed Friday 11/4/05 (please read that day's column).  Today the S&P was down 5 to 1229.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -485 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  fell from 133 to 116.  We dropped a -402 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-14-05  BULL Market resumed Friday 11/4/05 (please read that day's column).  Today the S&P was down 1 to 1234.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -174 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  fell from 209 to 133.  We dropped a +210 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-11-05  BULL Market resumed last Friday (please read last Friday's column).  Today the S&P was up by 4 to 1235.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +453 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from 120 to 209.  We dropped a +6 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is above the 200DMA line, so we have a continuing BULL market. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. The nine month moving average shows a BULL market, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. I am bringing back the weekly feature, the Bear Bogey table, which will now serve as a BULL Bogey table. These are the S&P values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey.  Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

11-10-05  BULL Market resumed last Friday (please read Friday's column).  Today the S&P was up by 10 to 1231.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +452 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from 89 to 120.  We dropped a +298 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a neutral bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a small number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers Paragraph: We definitely busted the short sale today. We had to cover near the close for a loss. We dont record profits and losses from short sales on the site. This changes the Short Sale State to Dirty. Please see Market State page for update.

11-9-05  BULL Market resumed last Friday (please read Friday's column).  Today the S&P was up by 2 to 1221.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +481 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  fell from 268 to 89.  We dropped a +1226 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers Paragraph: If we had had a rise today that was one point more than the decline yesterday, we would have been forced to cover our shorts. But the market didnt set off that cover requirement. We are holding the short position.

11-8-05  BULL Market resumed last Friday (please read Friday's column).  Today the S&P was down by 4 to 1219. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -555 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  fell from 289 to 268.  We dropped a -293 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 10/28/05. See ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The gain on this round trip was 2.4%, considering that we had only 12% of available funds for equities at risk. This brings the result for the year to -3.4%. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the sell. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers Paragraph: We are allowed to sell short since the decline in S&P was at least 4 points. We shorted w/25% of available funds SPY and QQQQ.

11-7-05  BULL Market resumed Friday (please read Friday's column).  Today the S&P was up by 3 to 1223.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +210 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually fell from 599 to 358.  We dropped a +1415 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the S&P did not decline today, the ARM signal from Friday expired. But the decline in the 5DMA, while it was above the upper threshold of +19, while the S&P was up, gives a repeat ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE SELL signal). Any decline in S&P Tuesday (close) will complete the SELL signal. No other signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-4-05  BULL Market resumes today (see below), despite the minuscule gain in S&P. Today the S&P was up by less than a point to 1220.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +38 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from 920 to 599.  We dropped a +1643 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is above +400, so we say the market is over-bought. The decline in the 5DMA, while it was above the upper threshold of +19, while the S&P was up, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE SELL signal). Any decline in S&P Monday (close) will complete the SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up and the S&P is now again above the 200DMA line, so we have a new BULL market. Long-term Investors can buy today or Monday, using 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY and QQQQ. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Long-term Investor's page, Table 1 has been updated for the BULL signal. The Bear market lasted just one month. The Bull signal may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line, indicating a BULL Market. The nine month moving average shows a BULL market, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. I am bringing back the weekly feature, the Bear Bogey table, which will now serve as a BULL Bogey table. These are the S&P values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which it is today, signifying a BULL market. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey.  Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-Sellers paragraph. We can sell short when we get at least a 4 point decline in the S&P, perhaps tomorrow.

11-3-05  Market rallied early, but closed off best levels. Today the S&P was up by 5 to 1220. If we can hold near this level, we will be back in a BULL market by Friday.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +473 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from 591 to 920.  We dropped a -1349 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is above +400, so we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-2-05  Another nice advance. Today the S&P was up by 12 to 1215. If we can hold near this level, we will be back in a BULL market by Friday.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1538 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from 122 to 591.  We dropped a -805 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 5DMA is above +400, so we say the market is over-bought. It looks like the S&P Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) line has been broken on the upside. This changes the IDT flag to False; that change has been made to the Market State page. No other signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-1-05  Today the S&P was down by 4 to 1203.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -293 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually rose from  72 to 122. We dropped a -544 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. There was no sell signal because the 5DMA did not turn down with the S&P. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.