10-31-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was again up and down and finally closed up 4 to 1051. That was just enough to trigger the RunLight BUY Signal (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +109 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +256 to +359. We dropped a -437 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday-Wednesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The violation of the 1048.1 bogey of 10/29 by more than 1.5 S&P points, while in Run-5 State, gives us a RunLight BUY signal. We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQ, and IWM (please see ETF page for explanation of symbols). The Market State page has been updated.

Long-Term Investors End-of-week/End-of-month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (about 14 weeks) of clear sailing. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +16.9%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Short Sellers paragraph: The notional short sale of yesterday was closed out with a loss after the bogey violation. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

We see from time to time cautions about the economy, the trade deficit, the budget deficit, an overextended stock market, the currency, etc. (Today check out: money.cnn.com/2003/10/31/commentary/bidask/bidask/index.htm.) You should not worry about these things seriously wrecking your assets somehow. Because both our Long-term and Short-term Systems, if you pay attention to these columns, will get you out before big trouble hits. The Short-term System will get you out approx one day off the high. The Long-term System will get you out when the 200DMA rolls over and the S&P falls below that 200DMA line, which may be a month or two from the high. The latter is the definition of a beginning of a BEAR market, and no matter how bad the news, if it is not reflected in the market, then it doesn't matter. If the market gives a BEAR market signal when the news is mostly good, then we must act, because this definition has an 86% accuracy (and if you dont count one small miscall from 8/94 to 11/94, 100% accuracy over the last 20 years). It is beyond me why almost 100% of the financial press ignores these easily verified data as a VERY efficacious definition of BULL/BEAR markets.

10-30-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 limped along up and down and finally closed down 1 to 1047. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -2 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +256 to +251. We dropped a +24 from the average from six days ago, giving us a neutral bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a Short-term SELL signal. This round trip (short as it was) gained us 1.5% and brought the gain for the year to 19.79%. The Market State and Results_History pages have been updated.

Short Sellers paragraph: We can not do an actual short sale here because the Short State is Dirty, but we have to do a notional (on paper only) short sale to keep track of the Market State Flag. The bogey for this sale is the recent minor high on Wednesday of 1048.1. If the S&P closes above 1049.6 (bogey plus 1.5), we will say the bogey is violated and Market State will pop-up to RunLight with an immediate BUY signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

10-29-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 limped ahead and closed up 1 to 1048.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +475 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -15 to +256. We dropped a -879 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have an almost neutral bias Thursday due to dropping a small number from the average from six days prior. We are now in the SELL signal region, being above +2.5 in 5DMA; could get a SELL signal any day. No signals today.

10-28-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 boomed ahead and closed up 16 to 1047. Yesterday's BUY signal is looking good.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +837 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -159 to -15. We dropped a +118 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior.  No signals today.

10-27-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was teasing us until the close, threatening not to close up. It finally closed up 2 to 1031. This is an excellent BUY signal (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +380 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -199 to -159. We dropped a +181 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and 5DMA while 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5 gives us a Short-term BUY signal. The BUY signal is excellent because it occurs only 2 points from the bottom set Friday. Since we are Long-Purchase Clean we may BUY with 100% of available funds. We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQ, and IWM (please see ETF page for explanation of symbols and Glossary for any unfamiliar terms).

10-24-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was down hard until the last hour, finally closing down only 5 to 1029.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -437 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV actually rose from -255 to -199. We dropped a -719 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA while it was below the lower threshold of -5 gives us an ARM signal (first half of Arm & Fire BUY signal-please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms).  Any up close in S&P500 on Monday will complete the Arm & Fire sequence and give a BUY signal.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). We do update Table 2 monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (about 15 weeks) of clear sailing (maybe we should cross our fingers, just in case). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since 4/25/03 is +14.47%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

10-23-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 limped to a small gain of 3 to 1034.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +24 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -194 to -255. We dropped a +327 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We are in the BUY range and a signal is very likely soon. No signals today.

Before the opening today, the futures were down hard, and it was said that it was because the Japanese exchange had a large loss, which was due to yesterday's large NY loss. This would be an infinite loop into a market death spiral if it were true. Imagine every day, Japan goes down because NY goes down, and NY goes down because Japan goes down, etc, etc.!! Another old saw says that October is the worst month for market performance. Even if this is true, the System will account for all this noise; follow the System and ignore news and commentary.

10-22-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down hard by 16 to 1030. It is just amazing how the 5DMA correctly signaled us not to buy yesterday, and so avoid this debacle today. Stick with the System!

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -879 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -101 to -194. We dropped a -410 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. We are in the BUY range and a signal is very likely soon. No signals today.

10-21-03 Dear Reader: What a session! To all outward appearances it was dull, the S&P500 closed up by 1 to 1046. But the volume kept us going in and out of a BUY signal a dozen times the last hour (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +118 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -90 to -101. We dropped a +172 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We are in the BUY range and a signal is very likely soon (maybe tomorrow). Almost any up close in S&P500 tomorrow will probably be our BUY signal. Even after the market closed we were showing a BUY signal, then after 30 minutes of late volume reporting, we lost it. No signals today.

10-20-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up by 5 to 1045.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +181 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -20 to -90. We dropped a +529 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. We are now in the BUY range (being below -5 on 5DMA) and could get a BUY signal any day. No signals today.

10-17-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down hard by 11 to 1039. On days like today we are glad to be out of the market from our Short-term SELL signal. Long-term investors may ignore these remarks.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -719 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +125 to -20. We dropped a +5 from the average from six days ago, giving us a neutral bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. We are now in the BUY range (being below -5 on 5DMA) and could get a BUY signal any day. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). We do update Table 2 monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (about 16 weeks) of clear sailing (maybe we should cross our fingers, just in case). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since 4/25/03 is +15.63%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

10-16-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up by 3 to 1050.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +327 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +166 to +125. We dropped a +535 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next three days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

The ambiguity mentioned in the 9/30 column just doesnt go away. If we violate the bogey of 1049.5 on 10/14 by 1.5 points, or close at 1051. or higher, then we have a possible rise in Market State to RunLight, with its immediate BUY signal. The non-existent profit from closing out the unofficial trade of: BUY on 10/13 and SELL on 10/15 did not settle whether the rule used for the bogey violation of 9/30 should be modified or not. If my commentary of yesterday that the Market State fell to Oscillatory on 9/30, then rose to Run-5 on 10/13, is correct, then the violation of the bogey (+1.5 S&P points) of 10/14 will cause a rise in Market State to RunLight. If eventually we find that the event of 9/30 (when the bogey was violated by less than one point) did not cause a drop in Market State to Oscillatory, and the state remained at Run-5, then the bogey violation of 10/13 was the first RunLight signal, and a bogey violation today would be the SECOND RunLight signal in a row, which is to be IGNORED (please see Glossary for explanation of any unfamiliar terms).

We like to say that the Field Systems have virtually no ambiguity; that we always know what to do in the market to maximize profit by following the rules. Occasionally we encounter the need for a rule refinement, and this extensive discussion, over what must seem like an extremely minor point to many, is evidence that we do strive to create a complete, unambiguous and SCIENTIFIC market system. Some may say that we are basing a rule on only one data point. This is true, but some events are rare in the market behavior and it is important to take notice of such occurrences if they have profit and loss impact. And if the event never occurs again, no harm done, but if it does, we know what to do. Notice that if a new type of bridge fails, we dont say it is only one data point, we assiduously investigate and re-engineer before attempting to build such a bridge a second time.

10-15-03 Dear Reader: Another dull day, the S&P500 finally closed down by 3 to 1047.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -410 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +192 to +166. We dropped a -283 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias the next four days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and 5DMA while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a sterile SELL signal. Sterile since officially we have no positions on. We made a 50% BUY unofficially on 10/13 because we are testing a possible rule refinement that came up on 9/30/03. The profit on this unofficial round trip was about zero, so it was not a bell-ringing test result. My current view is that the violation of the bogey on 9/30 by less than one S&P point DID CAUSE a drop in Market State to Oscillatory, and the bogey violation on 10/13 then raised the State to Run-5 and not to the higher state of RunLight. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

10-14-03 Dear Reader: After being up and down all day, the S&P500 finally closed up by 4 to 1050.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +172 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +234 to +192. We dropped a +385 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. Since the 5DMA turned down today while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, but the S&P was up, this is a ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE SELL signal, see Glossary>Arm...). If we get a downturn in S&P500 tomorrow, we will have completed the SELL signal. The signal will be sterile though, since officially we have no positions on.

10-13-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 broke through the previous minor high of 1039.3 set on 10/7/03 and closed up by 7 to 1045. Since today is a holiday, we will soon see if this an example of the old saw "the market goes the wrong way on holidays", meaning that this up day would have been a down day had it not been a holiday.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +529 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +198 to +234. We dropped a +346 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The violation of the bogey from 10/7/03 of 1039.3 raises the Market State to Run-5, but since we did not get below the lower threshold of -5 on 5DMA, this is not an official BUY signal. The Market State page has been updated for the Run-5. The market behavior over the next few days is going to settle the issue I broached on 9/30/03. That is whether a bogey violation of less than one S&P point would cause a change of Market State from Run-5 to Oscillatory. We assumed on 9/30 that the violation did cause a lapse into Oscillatory state. Now today, if were were ALREADY in Run-5 state (i.e., if the change to Oscillatory state on 9/30 had not been declared since the violation was less than one point), the bogey violation of today would cause a state rise to RunLight, and an immediate BUY signal. Now since we dont know today whether a BUY signal today will be profitable (and that is our truth test), we are not going to BUY officially for the record (since we dont have a rule at this time for that), but I am going to unofficially BUY with 50% of available funds, just in case the result is profitable (one-third each in SPY, QQQ and IWM--see ETF page for explanation of symbols).

Short Sellers paragraph: We close out our notional (on-paper only) short sale of 10/8/03 at a loss since the S&P closed above 1040.3. This raises the Market State to Run-5. The Short-state was already Dirty, so the busted short trade does not change that. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

10-10-03 Dear Reader: A pretty dull day, the S&P500 closed down by less than a point to 1038.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +5 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +357 to +198. We dropped a +798 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). We do update Table 2 monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (about 17 weeks) of clear sailing (maybe we should cross our fingers, just in case). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since 4/25/03 is +15.5%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Short Sellers paragraph: No change from yesterday. We need the S&P to close at 1040.3 or better to raise the Market State to Run-5. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

10-9-03 Dear Reader: After being up by about 14 points at one time to a 16 month high, the S&P500 closed up by 5 to 1039.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +535 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +330 to +357. We dropped a +403 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next three days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Short Sellers paragraph: No change from yesterday. We need the S&P to close at 1040.3 or better to raise the Market State to Run-5. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

10-8-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down by 6 to 1034. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -283 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +601 to +330. We dropped a +1074 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next four days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a Short-term SELL signal. This round-trip netted us 2.7%, bringing our gain for the year to +18.26%. The Results_Summary and Market State pages have been updated.

Short Sellers paragraph: We can not do an actual short sale here because the Short State is Dirty, but we have to do a notional (on paper only) short sale to keep track of the Market State Flag. The bogey for this sale is the recent minor high on Tuesday of 1039.3. If the S&P closes above 1040.3 (bogey plus 1), we will say the bogey is violated and Market State will advance to Run-5. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

10-7-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up by 5 to 1039.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +385 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +417 to +601. We dropped a -539 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias for the next five days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. Since we are above +400 on 5DMA, we are over-bought and expect a SELL signal any day. The ARM signal from yesterday expired since the the S&P was up today. No signals today.

10-6-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up by 5 to 1034.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +346 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV actually fell from +464 to +417. We dropped a +585 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. Since the 5DMA turned down today while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, but the S&P was up, this is a ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE SELL signal, see Glossary>Arm...). If we get a downturn in S&P500 tomorrow, we will have completed the SELL signal.

10-3-03 Dear Reader: After being up by almost twice as much during the day, the S&P500 closed up by 10 to 1030.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +798 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +183 to +464. We dropped a -608 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. Since we are above +400 on 5DMA, we are overbought and could get a SELL signal any day. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week, end-of-month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). We do update Table 2 monthly, and that table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (about 18 weeks) of clear sailing (maybe we should cross our fingers, just in case). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since 4/25/03 is +14.6%. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

10-2-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up by 2 to 1020.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +403 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -38 to +183. We dropped a -701 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

10-1-03 Dear Reader: In a booming advance, the S&P500 closed up by 22 to 1018.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1074 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -454 to -38. We dropped a -1008 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Thursday-Friday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.