10-31-05  Today the S&P was up by 9 to 1207.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1415 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from 104 to 72. (We have not been getting corrected volume numbers from nightlybusiness.org for about a week as they have been impacted by hurricanes and other.) We dropped a 1577 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-28-05  Today the S&P was up by 20 to 1198.  Short-term BUY signal today. The market has been making a lot of large moves in both directions; but the Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) is still in effect. With some serious upside follow-on, we could break the IDT.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1643 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -148 to +104. (We have not been getting corrected volume numbers from nightlybusiness.org for about a week as they have been impacted by hurricanes and other.) We dropped a +383 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -16, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought, with 12% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. Please see EFT page for meaning of these symbols. The 12% figure comes from the revised scale-in rules for a BEAR market, which appear in the Glossary under scale-in. On the first BUY signal (in a sequence of BUY signals uninterrupted by any SELL signals), we buy with 12% of available funds for equities, 25% on the second and 50% on the third. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 turns up, but this does not signify a   BULL market since we are below the 200DMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is below that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. The nine month moving average shows a BULL market, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. I am bringing back the weekly feature, the Bear Bogey table, which will now serve as a BULL Bogey table. These are the S&P values above which the S&P must rise for a BULL Market signal. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The S&P must also be above the 200DMA line, which today it is not. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

10-27-05  I have missed a number of columns because of computer problems. I will fill in missing columns as I get time. Today the S&P was down hard by 12 to 1179. We are once again near the previous minor low of 1178.6 set on 10/13/05.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -805 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +272 to -144. (We have not been getting corrected volume numbers from nightlybusiness.org for about a week as they have been impacted by hurricanes and other.) We dropped a +1274 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-26-05  Today the S&P was down by 5 to 1191.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1492 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -144 to -146. We dropped a -1331 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +16, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ we bought on 10/24/05. The round trip result was a loss of 2.5%, considering that we are scaling-in purchases in a BEAR market with the scale-in now inverted. That means we now buy with only 12% of available funds for equities on first buy signal, 25% on second buy signal and 50% on third buy signal. That brings our result for the year to - 3.6%. The Market State page and the Results_History 04- have been updated for the sell. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-25-05  Today the S&P was up by 3 to 1197.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +272 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +183 to +272. (We have not been getting corrected volume numbers from nightlybusiness.org for about a week as they have been impacted by hurricanes and other.) We dropped a -986 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-24-05  Today the S&P was up by 20 to 1197.  Short-term BUY signal today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1577 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -42 to +183. (We have not been getting corrected volume numbers from nightlybusiness.org for about a week as they have been impacted by hurricanes and other.) We dropped a -83 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -16, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought, with 12% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. Please see EFT page for meaning of these symbols. The 12% figure comes from the revised scale-in rules for a BEAR market, which appear in the Glossary under scale-in. On the first BUY signal (in a sequence of BUY signals uninterrupted by any SELL signals), we buy with 12% of available funds for equities on the first BUY signal, 25% on the second and 50% on the third.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-21-05    Today the S&P rose by 7  to 1180.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +383 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -42 to +183. We dropped a +885 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +4.4% using S&P only as the basis, or +4.7% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above 1191.2 (bear bogey) this coming week to avoid a BEAR market signal. I am adding today a weekly feature, the Bear Bogey table; these are the S&P values above which the S&P must remain to avoid a Bear Market signal. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

10-20-05  Sorry column is late, computer problems. Today the S&P gave back the 18 it advanced yesterday. It fell to 1178. We are once again near the previous minor low of 1178.6 set on 10/13/05.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1868 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +269 to -49. We dropped a -278 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +16, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 10/7/05 and 10/14. The round trip generated a loss of 1.2%, considering that we had only 50% of funds at risk on first buy and 25% on second buy. This shows the value of having the Long-Purchase State (Dirty) to limit risk. The result for the year changed to -3.4%. We have updated the Market State page for the sell and the Results_Hist_04- for the trades. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-19-05  Today the S&P re-bounded by 18 to 1196. The market bounced off the previous minor low of 1178.6 set on 10/13/05.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1274 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -184 to +269. We dropped a -988 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We could get a sell signal since now we are above the upper threshold of +16 in 5DMA. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-18-05  Today the S&P was down by 12 to 1178. We are approaching the minor low of 1178.6 set on 10/13/05. This is not unexpected and makes our recent purchases under water, and violation of that level will further the bearish look of the market.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -986 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -83 to -184. We dropped a -485 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Today was not a sell signal since the 5DMA was not above the selling threshold of +16 yesterday. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-17-05  Today the S&P was up by 4 to 1190.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +449 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -427 to -83. We dropped a -1267 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-14-05  Today the S&P was up by 10 to 1187.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +885 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -513 to -427. We dropped a +451 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The S&P turned up, so this gives a FIRE signal (second half of ARM & FIRE BUY signal). Yesterday we had an ARM signal. We bought, with 25% of available cash for equities, equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Since the Long Purchase State is Dirty, we are scaling-in purchases on BUY signals, 50% the first signal, this is the second buy signal so we buy with 25% of available funds. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. Long-term investors should have sold everything by now. You may re-buy when the next BULL market is declared, which could be many months from now. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has turned down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line (which is at 1199.0); this fulfills the definition of a BEAR market. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows a decrease in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is below that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line as of 9/30/05. The nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line shows a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. We sold our Long-term positions on 10/5/05, the day we declared a BEAR market. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 was +2.5% using S&P only as the basis, or +2.5% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. The result of this BULL market run can be seen in Long-term Investor's page, Table 1. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Short Sellers Paragraph: We will be able to put on some more short sales when we get the next Short-term SELL signal, probably next week. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-13-05  Today the S&P was down by 1 to 1177. At the close the S&P was slightly positive and I thought we would get a Short-term BUY signal, but it didnt close up.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -278 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -631 to -513. We dropped a -865 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The ARM signal yesterday expired since we had no up day today for the S&P; but once again the  5DMA rose while the S&P did not turn up, so that gives a repeat ARM signal (first half of Arm&Fire buy signal). Any upturn tomorrow in S&P will give a buy signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-12-05  Today the S&P was down by 7 more to 1178.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -988 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -744 to -631. We dropped a -1555 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The ARM signal yesterday expired since we had no up day for the S&P; but once again the  5DMA rose while the S&P did not turn up, so that gives a repeat ARM signal (first half of Arm&Fire buy signal). Any upturn tomorrow in S&P will give a buy signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-11-05  Today the S&P was down by 2 to 1185.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -485 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -804 to -744. We dropped a -786 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The rise in 5DMA while the S&P did not turn up, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -16, gives an ARM signal (first half of Arm&Fire buy signal). Any upturn tomorrow in S&P will give a buy signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-10-05  Today the S&P was down by 9 to 1187.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a large -1267 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -531 to -805. We dropped a +102 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are below -400 in 5DMA, so we say that we are over-sold. No signals today. We broke the previous minor low of  1192 on 10/6/05. We do not sell out our longs on that kind of action. The action helps confirm the BEAR market signal of last Wednesday. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-7-05  Today the S&P was up by 4 to 1196. Buy signal and Buy Back Shorts signals today (see following paragraphs).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +521 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -531 to -517. We dropped a +451 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We are reluctant to buy with 100% of available funds in a BEAR market, so we are setting Long Purchase State to Dirty, meaning we buy with only 50% of available funds on this first buy signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. Long-term investors should have sold everything by now. You may re-buy when the next BULL market is declared, which could be many months from now. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has turned down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line (which is at 1199.0); this fulfills the definition of a BEAR market. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows a decrease in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is below that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, and that the S&P is above that average line as of 9/30/05. The nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line shows a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. We sold our Long-term positions on 10/5/05, the day we declared a BEAR market. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +2.5% using S&P only as the basis, or +2.5% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. The result of this BULL market run can be seen in Long-term Investor's page, Table 1. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Short Sellers Paragraph: Short Sales were covered today on the BUY signal. The result of this trade was a gain of 1.5%. We do not enter short trades into the Results table. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-6-05 The market was lower again today. Today the S&P was down by 5 to 1191. Be sure and read yesterday's column about BEAR market.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -865 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -196 to -531. We dropped a +807 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below -400 on 5DMA, so we say we are over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-term investors should have sold everything by now. You may re-buy when the next BULL market is declared, which could be many months from now.

Short Sellers Paragraph: Short Sales are looking good. I do not delight if you are losing money on your longs, but some readers (including myself) are interested in short sales, so we report informally on them. Because of the added risk, we do not recommend short selling for the average investor. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-5-05 The market went into the tank today. We have a BEAR MARKET signal. Usually we go by the Friday closing figures in calculating a 40 week moving average, which gives the signal. I examined the S&P values we would drop if we were counting 200 business days (counting holidays as if they were a trading day) instead of 40 weeks (they are really the same). The S&P values are 1204.9, 1213.5, 1213.5, dropped on Monday 10/3, Tuesday 10/4, and Wednesday today, respectively. We see that the values we are dropping are greater than today's close, so the 200 day moving average would turn down today, that would mean we have a BEAR MARKET signal today! A BEAR MARKET signal means one should sell all on the signal, or on tomorrow's opening. Do not wait until the next short-term SELL signal. We will be putting out a Press Release shortly.

Today the S&P was down hard by 18 to 1197. We have our Intermediate term Down Trend (IDT) signal today. The minor highs and lows that make up the IDT pattern are: high of 1240.6 0n 9/12/05, high 1228.8 on 9/30/05,  low of 1210.2 on 9/21/05 and any low put in after today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1555 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +150 to -196. We dropped a +178 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. IDT equals True was recorded today. The Market State page has been updated for the BEAR and the IDT. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-term investors should sell all on the opening tomorrow and wait until a BULL market signal occurs before re-buying anything.

Short Sellers Paragraph: Short Sales are looking good. I do not delight if you are losing money on your longs, but some readers (including myself) are interested in short sales, so we report informally on them. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-4-05 Let's discuss yesterday first. Overnight the PBS/Nightly Business Report gave us the corrected figures for up and down volume for NYSE only. They show a definite decline in 5DMA and thus a SELL signal. I sold all on the opening today, which was nice since we had a pop up on the opening (more in next paragraph).

Today the S&P was down hard by 12 to 1214. I can see the minor high of 1228.8 that we experienced on 9/30/05 as indicating a possible IDT forming (Intermediate-term Downtrend). Any close below 1210 will complete the formation of an IDT, but the BEAR bogey this week is 1212, so any close below 1212 will indicate a BEAR MARKET, never mind the IDT!

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -786 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +269 to +150. We dropped a -193 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA yesterday gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold on the opening today the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 9/15/05. We use yesterday's closing prices for the profit/loss calculations; today's opening was higher than that, so this is conservative. The result of the trades was a loss of 0.1%, bringing our result for the year to -2.1%. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL and the Results_History 04- has recorded the purchase and sale. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short Sellers Paragraph: Since we are in OSCILLatory State, and the decline today was at least 4 S&P points, we chance a short sale with 50% of available funds for equities, despite the Short Sale State being Dirty (that signal was from May-we are assuming the market memory from May will be dim). We do not record in our official results the results of short sales. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-3-05 Today the S&P was down by 2 to 1227. It is too close to call whether we got a SELL signal today. The S&P closed down but the 5DMA barely closed up. We will wait for the evening figures from PBS/Nightly Business Report to determine a SELL signal.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +102 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +285 to +269. We dropped a +181 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today, but that may change overnight (see 10-4 column). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.