9-30-05 Today the S&P was up by 1 to 1229.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +635 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +235 to +322. We dropped a +204 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We did not get a sell signal since the 5DMA actually increased. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +5.4% using S&P only as the basis, or +5.5% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above 1211.9 (bear bogey) this coming week to avoid a BEAR market signal. The Bear Bogey table follows; these are the S&P values above which the S&P must remain in order to avoid a Bear Market signal. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

9-29-05 Today the S&P was up by 11 to 1228. I'm glad we didnt have a down day because that would have been a sell signal and would give us a loss on our purchases of 9/15/05.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1008 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +84 to +235. We dropped a +51 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are now above the upper threshold of +19 in 5DMA, we can get a sell signal with the next downturn in S&P. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-28-05 Dear Readers: I guess you have figured out that I evacuated Houston along with 2.3 mill others. It was an ordeal but there was insignificant damage to my house. I am home again and have a week's worth of columns to catch up on, which will take a few days.

MAJOR ALERT: Usually I report the Long Term Investor's paragraph on Friday, but we are so close to a BEAR Market call, that I want to mention that if this Friday, 9/30, we close below 1210.1 (the BEAR bogey), as reported here on 9/16, that will constitute a BEAR market Signal. We will put out a Press Release if that occurs.

Today the S&P was up by 1 to 1217.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +178 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -143 to +84. We dropped a -956 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are now above then upper threshold of +19 in 5DMA, we can get a sell signal with the next downturn in S&P. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate term Investors Paragraph. It is looking like an IDT (Intermediate Down Trend) is developing. The declining minor tops are: 1242 on 9/9, and around 1220 any day now, the declining minor bottoms are: 1210 on 9/21 and any lower low possibly coming soon after the second minor high aforesaid (~1220).

9-27-05 Dear Readers: The S&P was virtually unchanged at 1216.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -193 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -373 to -143. We dropped a -1346 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-26-05 Dear Readers: The S&P was virtually unchanged at 1216.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +181 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -525 to -373. We dropped a -576 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-23-05 Dear Readers: The S&P was virtually unchanged at 1215.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +204 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -405 to -525. We dropped a +800 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +4.2% using S&P only as the basis, or +4.0% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above 1210.1 (bear bogey) this coming week to avoid a BEAR market signal. The Bear Bogey table follows; these are the S&P values above which the S&P must remain in order to avoid a Bear Market signal. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

9-22-05 Dear Readers: The S&P was up by 4 to 1215.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +51 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -418 to -405. We dropped a -12 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are below -400 in 5DMA, we say we are over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-21-05 Dear Readers: If this column does not appear for a few days, it is because I have evacuated to more northern climes as hurricane Rita bears down on the Texas coast ( I am in Houston). If you have figured out how to determine a sell signal by keeping track of the 5DMA, then you can call your own sell signal. If not, then watch the S&P, it should advance soon; the first down day after that advance will be your sell day. Since the Intermediate term outlook is so poor, we would have Intermediate term Investors sell on the same signal.

The S&P fell by another 11 to 1210. Not looking good for a major advance through that 1245 S&P level. Intermediate Down Trend looking possible here. Hurricane Rita should raise oil prices and lower stock prices.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -956 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -284 to -418. We dropped a -289 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a neutral bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a small number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are below -400 in 5DMA, we say we are over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-20-05 Dear Readers: The S&P fell by another 10 to 1221. Not looking good for a major advance through that 1245 S&P level. Intermediate Down Trend looking possible here. Hurricane Rita should raise oil prices and lower stock prices.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1334 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -161 to -284. We dropped a -727 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-19-05 Dear Readers: The S&P fell by 7 to 1231. I believe this decline is temporary and is just defining the channel (chart pattern) for the Intermediate-term up trend.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -576 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -56 to -161. We dropped a -54 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. The decline in S&P and 5DMA does not constitute a sell signal since the 5DMA was not above the upper threshold of +19 when the decline occurred. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-16-05 Dear Readers: The S&P rose by 10 to 1238.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +800 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -64 to -56. We dropped a +760 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate-Term Investors (ITI) paragraph: The Intermediate Trend is looking up, meaning that the very significant and near-by barrier of S&P 1245 should be penetrated soon.Yesterday was the BUY signal for Intermediate-Term Investors. That was the first Short-term BUY signal after the Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) was broken on the upside. See Glossary for definitions of ITI and IDT.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +6.15% using S&P only as the basis, or +6.05% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above 1194 (bear bogey) this coming week to avoid a BEAR market signal. The Bear Bogey table follows; these are the S&P values above which the S&P must remain in order to avoid a Bear Market signal. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

9-15-05 Dear Readers: The S&P rose by 1 to 1228. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -12 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -146 to -64. We dropped a -421 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought equal amounts of SPY, IWM and QQQQ using 100% of available funds for equities. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-14-05 Dear Readers: The S&P fell by 4 to 1227. Today we broke the previous bogey of 1231.7 set on 9/8/05 by more than one point, so we drop the Market State from Run-5 to OSCILLatory. We have different 5DMA thresholds at which buy/sell signals take place in the lower State.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -289 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -21 to -146. We dropped a +920 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The Market State page has been updated for the State change. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-13-05 Dear Readers: The S&P fell by 8 to 1231.2. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). We approached breaking the previous bogey of 1231.7 on 9/8/05, and thus drop the Market State to oscillatory, but the S&P today did not break that level by at least one S&P point, so we do not change the Market State to Oscillatory.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -727 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +308 to -21. We dropped a +920 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, IWM and QQQQ that we bought on 9/9/05. The result of that round trip was a loss of -0.9%, which brings our result for the year to -2%. The Market State page and Results_History04- have been updated. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-12-05 Dear Readers: The S&P fell by 1 to 1241.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -54 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +275 to +308. We dropped a -218 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in the S&P was not a sell signal since the 5DMA was up. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-9-05 Dear Readers: The S&P boomed ahead again, and advanced by 10 to 1241. RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph). But we are closer than before to the 1245 major S&P resistance level.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +760 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +164 to +275. We dropped a +201 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The advance of the S&P above the previous bogey of 1236.4 set on 9/7/05, by at least 1.5 S&P points while we are in Run-5 Market State, gives a Short-term RunLite BUY signal. This is the first RunLite BUY signal in a sequence; the three conditions for a RunLite BUY signal are fulfilled. The System bought with 100% of available funds for equities equal dollar amounts of SPY, IWM , and QQQQ. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate-term investors (ITI) paragraph:  ITI's should be in all cash equivalents (money market or short term treasury bills). If the S&P blasts through the 1245 resistance level, we may have to change our rule on Intermediate Term BUY signals from BUYing on a normal Short-term BUY signal (not RunLite) to BUYing immediately upon breaking the IT Downtrend line. See Glossary for definition of ITI. Eventually the market should decline to the last IDT line, which would be down to about S&P 1215-1220.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +6.5% using S&P only as the basis, or +6.6% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above 1188 (bear bogey) this coming week to avoid a BEAR market signal. The Bear Bogey table follows; these are the S&P values above which the S&P must remain in order to avoid a Bear Market signal. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

9-8-05 Dear Readers: The S&P gave something back today and closed down 5 to 1232.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -421 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +480 to +164. We dropped a +1158 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in 5DMA and S&P, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal, but it is sterile since the System has no positions on. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-7-05 Dear Readers: The S&P closed up 3 to 1236.  We are getting closer to that famous triple-top barrier of 1245.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +338 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +353 to +480. We dropped a -296 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above 400 in 5DMA, so we are said to be over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-6-05 Dear Readers: Today the S&P boomed ahead and closed up 15 to 1233.  Run-5 signal today (but not a BUY-see next paragraph). Intermediate Down Trend (IDT) Line broken today, changing IDT from True to False.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +920 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +258 to +353. We dropped a +443 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The violation of the last sell bogey (at 1221.6 on 9/1/05) gives an upgrade in Market State to Run-5.  The Run-5 change was not a BUY signal because we were not below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA. The IDT change is not an immediate BUY because the Short-term System did not give a BUY. We are still working out the rules for the Intermediate-term System. The latter rule about not BUYing today is a provisional rule, that we will soon see how well it works. The advance was so strong it appears to me that it will come down soon. We have updated the Market State page for the Run-5 and the IDT change. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-Sellers Paragraph. Well we learned one thing about our 4 S&P point rule. Friday's decline was 3.5 S&P points, so we were not allowed to sell short because the decline was not at least 4 points. And today's strong upturn means we would have had to buy the shorts back at a significant loss. Yea for the 4 point rule! Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

9-2-05 Dear Readers: I am finally back up. After being out of country for a week, when I returned, my puter died. Today the S&P closed down 3.6 to 1218. FIRE & SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -218 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +162 to +258. We dropped a -696 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. On 9/1/05 we got an ARM signal (first half of SELL signal), since the 5DMA turned down, but not the S&P; the signal occurred while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +19. Today the S&P turned down, and, despite the rise in 5DMA, we get  a FIRE, second half of SELL signal. This gives a Short-term SELL signal. The System sold the shares of SPY, IWM and QQQQ that it bought on 8/19, 8/25, 8/29 and 8/31. We actually made a profit on these transactions of +0.1%, taking the result for the year to -1.17%. We have updated the Results_History 04- for these transactions. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate-term investors paragraph: If you like to trade no more frequently than every couple months or so, then you are an Intermediate term investor (ITI). This is as opposed to short-term investors who can trade every few days or weeks without difficulty, and Long-term Investors who dont want to trade more than every year or so. ITI's should be in all cash equivalents (money market or short term treasury bills).

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues its advance; this fulfills the definition of a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is above the 40WMA. This may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week, and that the S&P500 close today is above that average. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average, indicating a BULL Market, and that the S&P is above that average line. Both the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line and the 40 WMA show a BULL market continuing, but the 40 WMA is what we use for the BEAR/BULL signals. No change in our Long-term positions; we are long SPY and QQQQ in equal amounts, using 100% of available funds for long-term equities. The change in these positions since the BULL market began on 11/5/04 is +4.4% using S&P only as the basis, or +4.7% using 50% of S&P change and 50% of NASDAQ Composite change for the calculation. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The S&P500 needs to stay above 1191.2 (bear bogey) this coming week to avoid a BEAR market signal. I am adding today a weekly feature, the Bear Bogey table; these are the S&P values above which the S&P must remain to avoid a Bear Market signal. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-Sellers Paragraph. Today's SELL signal does not allow short sales because the decline must be at least 4 points, and today's decline was 3.6. We are in OSCIllatory State that does allow short sales, we just need the 4 point rule to be satisfied. It remains to be seen if rule should be changed to 3.5 S&P points, or if two days decline equalling 4 points is sufficient for a short sale. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

9-1-05 Dear Readers:  Today the S&P closed up 1 to 1222.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +201 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +176 to +162. We dropped a +270 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold, but with the S&P rising, gives an ARM (first half of ARM & FIRE SELL) signal Any downturn tomorrow in S&P will complete the sell with a FIRE half-signal.. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.