This site is about the Field Short-Term and       Long-Term Market Systems, which have been under development and testing for almost 40 years. This is the first publicity offered on the systems and is, as far as I know, unique and not available elsewhere. The first is a rule-based short term market timing (horizon about one week-signals are about a week apart) system. I’m sure you have heard the old saw: “No one can time the market”. To us this means only that the person making       that statement can’t time the market himself/herself. If you get the short term signals correct, the long term is already taken care of. This is not day trading by definition-all signals are based on market close for each day-not       on any intra-day action. I don’t believe anyone wants to buy stocks at a high price and see them fall over a period of many months. But they have no confidence or even any information on when to get out of a falling market. With       the Short-Term system you will be in and out about every week or two on average. There  were 14 BUY and 15 SELL signals in 2000, 14 BUY and 14 SELL signals in 2001 and 20  BUY and 19 SELL signals in 2002 (not counting any short sales or multiple BUY signals).       With the Long-Term System, you should exit the market when a BEAR signal is given (see Long-Term page). It might be more desirable to see an intermediate term system that got you out if the market were going to fall for, say, several months, and get you in for a rise. We offer the short term system (about a week between trades) and a long-term system for buy-and-hold investors (except now you are not going to "hold"       throughout a BEAR market, right?). BULL/BEAR       markets are many months or years (usually) in length. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is the newest development and is based on the 50 day moving average (DMA) of the S&P. When the 50DMA  of the S&P turns down and the S&P descends through the average line, we get an IT SELL signal. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P ascends through the line, we get an IT BUY signal. We also assign a true/false value to a flag variable Intermediate Down Trend (see Glossary) for use in deciding how much to invest when we get a Short-term System BUY signal.. The Short-Term system is somewhat more complicated in terms of threshold, simultaneity, exceptions and other features than the examples given here. This site is free for now. At some time in future a premium version (with more details) will be offered as well as a book on the Field Market System, called Stock Market Science. No wrong information will be given on the free site (to the best of our ability); features (e.g., thresholds) that are given as approximate will be noted. The exact values will be available in the premium site and in the book. The dailies will offer information on the bulk of the       necessary features of the system. The exceptions       (e.g., the case where the S&P500 action does not need to be simultaneous with the 5DMA action) will be discussed as such cases occur in the market. See Glossary for terminology. There are a couple dozen       rules in the system. You have already seen a few of these rules. Different rules apply in Bear markets than in Bull markets. Please see 6/4/02 Daily (June02 page) for a discussion of Bull and Bear markets (very timely now). Rule changes occur infrequently. In the last 2+ years BEAR market, seven rules have been added or changed. So the system is very stable. The site name may be questionable to some, saying, how can anything about the stock market be called scientific? I believe science proceeds with: hypothesis, test with data, rule (or “law”)       development, more testing and rule revision as necessary. These rules are dispassionate, extensively tested over many years with real money, and revised when necessary. The result is not perfect, but is in the 65% accurate       range (better than 70% in BULL markets). But more important than the percentage of profitable trades is the profit per year compared to a benchmark, such as the S&P500. Generally we beat the S&P500 by about 7% per year on average (see Summary_Table2). Some may say, with more rules, the accuracy could improve. Perhaps true, that kind of       major effort is for others to perform. Some may say this is not an exact science, I would agree. Neither is computing the flow rate of blood in an artery, predicting the path       of a hurricane, calculating the crash resistance of the World Trade Towers, or a dozen other examples that could be offered. It does not need to be an EXACT science to be a science. Some will say the short-term system is speculating, not investing. I agree. To me speculating is not a negative word. You can see the results of "Investing" (BUY-and-HOLD)(see our Long-term investors page). In the recent BEAR market,       stocks fell 40-70% or thereabouts. Even folks who bought since 1997 have seen their profits almost completely evaporate if they failed to sell when the BEAR market declaration was given (most TV talking heads were still very optimistic at that time and almost no       one was giving out BEAR market signals- and we were not on-line then). Speculate comes from the Latin word "to observe" (the English spectacles comes from the same       root). We OBSERVE what the markets are doing, and we know that, historically, certain buy and sell rules applied will give a certain probability of profit and we act in order to try and achieve that profit. What we do I call "conservative speculation".

I am often asked what percentage return this system will generate. Obviously it depends on what the market does. I have mounted on the site a 16 year Summary Table that shows about 12% return on average over the period using no margin or short selling (see Glossary). A running record of the percentage of profitable trades and the cumulative rate       of return per year is also shown. I sense that NO GREATER profit can be got from trading market average proxies than by this system. The rates of return are much greater than buy-and-hold (which generates about 8-10% per year over many-year periods, but our last Long-Term system BUY/SELL pair over the period 1994-2000 generated about 22% in annual returns). Nonetheless there are periods wherein there will be a string of small losses in the Short-Term system. No doubt certain sector experts ordering investments in their sector can achieve large returns for periods of a year or so. Other stock pickers have a hot hand lasting for more than a year. That's fine for some. I think buying individual stocks carries too much risk, the risk of NEWS! I prefer the stock index funds that are traded on the exchanges. There are now hundreds of exchange traded index funds, tradable just like stocks. I use SPY and QQQQ (trademark notices below) a lot, and some others too. We offer a list of dozens of Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) that are available, for almost any conceivable interest. Each is sufficiently diversified that the index is not seriously impacted by bad news on their constituent       stocks. This system is a rule-based market timing system, and these index funds mimic well the market, and provide the trading vehicle. No one complains (as the mutual       funds do) when we trade them every few days.       No-load mutual funds are a fine vehicle, but usually their managers will complain and cut you off if you trade frequently (i.e., several times in a quarter). See Glossary for terminology. There are ways of using this System for a MORE risk-oriented approach or a LESS risky approach. Generally, the greater the risk, the greater the reward. Using margin in your trading account can       double your risk and double your reward. Risk-averse accounts should not use margin. Asset allocation is another risk avoidance tool. If you put only 25% of your funds in a System like this and 75% in CD's or other       guaranteed investments, obviously you will have a very low-risk approach. Any combination of allocation percentages can be set up to match the investor(/speculators)'s inclinations. We offer a rudimentary Financial Planning page to get you started on Asset Allocation and other financial planning basics. Whatever investing/speculating approach you adopt,       I wish you GOOD LUCK!

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DISCLAIMER: StockMarketScience is for information       and opinion only, and should not be       considered       stock or market advice. The user is       totally       responsible for any actions taken as       a result       of reading this publication, and StockMarketScience       assumes NO liability for any losses       suffered       by anyone based on anything written       here.      
      This site written and copyright 2002-2010, by       Richard L. Field, BA, BSME, MSME, PhD. He       may receive email at rfield60@yahoo.com.