8-31-06 The S&P closed up 1 to 1305.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +148 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +225 to +259. We dropped a -24 from the average from six days ago, giving a slight positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-30-06 The S&P closed unchanged at 1304.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +181 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +109 to +225. We dropped a -399 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-29-06 The S&P closed up 3 to 1304.  

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +514 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +41 to +109. We dropped a +175 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-28-06 The S&P closed up 7 to 1302.  Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +7483 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -122 to +41. We dropped a -333 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols.  The Market State page has been updated for the Short-term BUY signal.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-25-06 The S&P closed down 1 to 1295.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -30 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -62 to -122. We dropped a +320 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA; we can get a BUY signal when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up, indicating we have a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is once again above the 200DMA line. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and that the S&P is above that 9MMA average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40WMA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The S&P still closed above the bogey, which is at 1247.3, so we have avoided the 50% BEAR market signal this week. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of September 1, the bogey is 1268.3, so we are a good ways from that. If the S&P returns to its recent levels in the 1260's, we will again approach a BEAR market signal. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +6.1%, using S&P as the basis, or +2.4% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-24-06 The S&P closed up 3 to 1296.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -71 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -19 to -62. We dropped a +140 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA; we can get a BUY signal when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-23-06 The S&P closed down 6 to 1293.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -399 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +252 to -19. We dropped a +957 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA; we can get a BUY signal when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-22-06 The S&P closed up 1 to 1299.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +175 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +450 to +252. We dropped a +1169 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-21-06 The S&P closed down 5 to 1298. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -333 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +536 to +450. We dropped a +94 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5,  gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 8/10/06. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. This is the best kind of sell signal, giving the signal with a small decline, allows us to get the most for our positions. The result of this round trip was +2.0%, bringing our result for trades since the BULL market resumed 11/4/05 to +4.5%.   The Market State page has been updated for the Short-term BUY signal. The Results_History_04- has been updated for the round trip. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-18-06 A modest advance; the S&P closed up 5 to 1302.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +320 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +361 to +536. We dropped a -556 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are above +400 in 5DMA, we say the market is over-bought. The failure of the S&P to decline after the ARM signal yesterday, cancels the ARM&FIRE sell signal that was in prospect. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up, indicating we have a continuing BULL market. And the S&P is once again above the 200DMA line. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and that the S&P is above that 9MMA average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40WMA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The S&P still closed above the bogey, which is at 1234.7, so we have avoided the 50% BEAR market signal this week. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of August 25, the bogey is 1247.3, so we are a good ways from that. About a week from now, if the S&P has returned to its recent levels in the 1260's, we will again approach a BEAR market signal. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +6.7%, using S&P as the basis, or +3.2% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-17-06 Up and down today, were we going to get a Short-term SELL signal or not (we didnt)? The S&P closed up 2 to 1297.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +140 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +389 to +361 (changed overnight). We dropped a +282 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA, while it was above the upper threshold of +2.5, while the S&P did not turn down, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM&FIRE SELL signal). Any decline in S&P tomorrow will complete the SELL signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-16-06  Another nice advance; the S&P closed up 10 to 1295.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +957 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +103 to +389. We dropped a -476 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above the upper threshold of +2.5 in 5DMA for a sell signal, which could come as soon as both S&P and 5DMA turn down. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-15-06  Well finally an advance that sticks; the S&P closed up 17 to 1286.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1169 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -237 to +103. We dropped a -529 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above the upper threshold of +2.5 in 5DMA for a sell signal, which could come as soon as both S&P and 5DMA turn down. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-14-06  After a nice advance that failed, the S&P closed up only 2 to 1268.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +94 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -321 to -237. We dropped a -328 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal, but it is sterile since we are already 100% invested from the BUY signal on 8/10/06. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-11-06  The S&P closed down 5 to 1267.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -556 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -230 to -321. We dropped a -102 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up, indicating we have a continuing BULL market. Now the S&P is once again below the 200DMA line, indicating a buying opportunity, but approaching a Bear market signal. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and that the S&P is above that 9MMA average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40WMA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The S&P still closed above the bogey, which is at 1220.1, so we have avoided the 50% BEAR market signal this week. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of August 18, the bogey is 1234.7, so we are a good ways from that. About two weeks from now, if the S&P has not made a significant advance from here, we will again approach a BEAR market signal. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +3.8%, using S&P as the basis, or -0.7% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-10-06  The S&P closed up 6 to 1272. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +282 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -258 to -230. We dropped a +145 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols.  The Market State page has been updated for the Short-term BUY signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-9-06  From up 12 to down 7, the S&P finally closed down 6 to 1266.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -476 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -31 to -258. We dropped a +657 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are below -5 in 5DMA, we can get a buy signal as soon as S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-8-06  The S&P closed down 4 to 1272.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -529 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -12 to -31. We dropped a -432 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-7-06  The S&P closed down 4 to 1276.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -328 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +30 to -12. We dropped a -118 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA, so we can get a buy signal when both S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-4-06  The S&P closed down 1 to 1279.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -102 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +258 to +30. We dropped a +1036 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues up, indicating we have a continuing BULL market. Now the S&P is once again above the 200DMA line. The Bull may be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows an increase in the 40WMA over last week. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and that the S&P is above that 9MMA average line, indicating a BULL Market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values above which the S&P must remain for a BULL Market to continue (based on the 40WMA); they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-term Investor's page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from date of interest. The BULL market will continue as long as the S&P remains above the BULL Bogey. The S&P still closed above the bogey, which is at 1198.4, so we have avoided the 50% BEAR market signal this week. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of Aug 11, the bogey is 1220.1, so we are a good ways from that. About three weeks from now, if the S&P has not made a significant advance from here, we will again approach a BEAR market signal. The change in the Long-term System since the BULL market started on 11/4/05 is +4.9%, using S&P as the basis, or +0.5% using 50% of S&P and 50% of NASDAQ 100 as the basis. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

8-3-06  The S&P closed up 2 to 1280.3.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +145 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +133 to +258. We dropped a -477 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The advance of the S&P above the previous bogey (set at 1278.6 on 7/28/06) by 1.7 S&P points today gives a RunLite BUY signal, the second in a row. Since the first RunLite signal produced a loss, the RunLite Flag is Dirty, indicating that we may not buy on the second RunLite signal. Later, if we see that RunLite signal #2 would have produced a paper profit, then the flag will change to Clean. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-2-06  The S&P closed up 8 to 1278.6.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +657 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +26 to +133. We dropped a +122 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Based on the closing 5DMA figures yesterday (5DMA was below -5), we would have had a BUY signal today, but the overnight figures did not confirm that. There was no RunLite BUY signal since the previous bogey (set at 1278.6 on 7/28/06) was not exceeded by at least 1.5 S&P points today. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-1-06  The S&P closed down 6 to 1271.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -432 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +271 to +26. We dropped a +791 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.