STOCKMARKETSCIENCE

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Stockmarketscience covers Short, Intermediate and Long Term investments in the US stock market. Roughly, Short-term is a couple weeks, Intermediate-term (IT) is a couple months, and Long-term covers periods of years. Our Daily columns are largely for the Field Short-Term rule-based stock index trading System (Long-term and IT Systems discussed next paragraph). The time horizon between trades is about one-two weeks. A Summary_Table of the performance of the System versus the S&P500 average for the last sixteen years shows that the Short-Term System BEATS the S&P by 3.7% per year on average (11.5% total average annual gain). The Table also shows that in BEAR markets (such as 9/00 to 4/03) the System does MUCH better than the S&P. The S&P is an un-managed basket of securities weighted by market capitalization, and is a common benchmark for system performance (trademark notices bottom of this page). We have also the Hybrid System, which is: use of the Short-Term System in BULL markets and the Long-Term System (see next paragraph) in BEAR markets. This System returns about 13.0% per year average over the most recent sixteen year period with only three losing year. (Hybrid page updated 12/31/09).

Long-term and Intermediate-term investments are discussed every Friday in these columns. Also please see our page for the Field Long-Term System. It shows a time-weighted average return of 15.5% annually over the most recent 26 year period (ending 1/31/08-end of last bull market) versus 9.8% annually for a buy-and-hold strategy, and poorer returns for buy-and-hold for shorter periods. For additional information about the Systems please see the About page (also has a mug shot of the old man). We also now have a Financial Planning Page as a beginning approach to this important subject.

Please see near the end of this page for LINKS to other pages.

DAILIES: Dear Readers:

3-9-10  The S&P rose by 2 to 1141. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1111, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1695 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +328 to +606. We dropped a +306 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-8-10  The S&P fell by a fraction to 1139. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1111, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +111 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +427 to +328. We dropped a +604 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. With the decline in S&P and in 5DMA while it was above +2.5, we get a SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 2/26/10  for a gain of 4.6%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +4.5%; the S&P is up 2.1% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-5-10   The S&P rocketed ahead by 16 to 1139. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1110, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +892 (million shares), with the ratio of up to down volume greater than 10 to 1, usually indicating a short-term top is very close. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +296 to +427. We dropped a +237 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought.  No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of February, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 919 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 3/12 the bogey is 940, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +18.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1114. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA continues up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT BUY signal. We had an IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned up. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/1/09 is +2.1%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL  on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrance of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term System result to date for CY10 is -0.1%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is +2.1%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-4-10  The S&P hung around up one all day, finally closing up by 4 to 1123.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1110, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +235 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +241 to +296. We dropped a -39 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Thursday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-3-10  The S&P was up by a fraction to 1119.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at 1109, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +97 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours]  from +326 to +241. We dropped a +522 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-2-10  The S&P was up by 3 to 1118.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at 1109, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +306 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +105 to +326. We dropped a -798 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-1-10  The S&P advanced smartly today by 11 to 1116. Internediate Term 50% BUY signal today.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at 1109 and the IT bogey is at 1108, both of which were exceeded today, so we can BUY with 50% of available funds for IT equities. When we exceed the bogey (the S&P value 51 days back) that means the 50 DMA turns up. When we exceed the 50DMA and it turns up, we get a 50% BUY signal. the other 50% will come when the IT remains in effect for 2 weeks and the next Short-term BUY signal occurs. We bought with 50% of available funds for IT equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +604 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -17 to +105. We dropped a -5 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The IT 50% Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-26-10  Down, up, down, up, the S&P roller coaster closed up today by 2 to 1104. Short Term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 2/23/10. The IT 50DMA is at 1109, so we can not have an IT BUY signal until we exceed that. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +237 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -27 to -17. We dropped a +182 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a neutral bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a tiny number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. A new paragraph on the IT System has been added to the Glossary.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of February, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 887 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 3/5 the bogey is 919, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +14.6%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1114. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We had an IT sell signal 1/22/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned down. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 was 27.1%; this became the booked result for the IT round trip. We also had an IT BUY and SELL  on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we get a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal, then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrance of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term System result to date for CY10 is -0.1%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -1%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-25-10  Down, up, down, the S&P roller coaster closed down today by 2 to 1103. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 2/23/10. The IT 50DMA is at 1109, so we can not have an IT BUY signal until we exceed that. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -182 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +75 to -56. We dropped a +474 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. It is not a Short-term SELL signal since we have no positions on. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-24-10  Almost a mirror image of yesterday, the S&P closed up by 11 to 1105. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 2/23/10. The IT 50DMA is at 1109, so we can not have an IT BUY signal until we exceed that. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +522 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +40 to +75. We dropped a +348 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. It is not a Short-term BUY signal since we were not below the lower 5DMA threshhold of -5 when the upturn in S&P and 5DMA occurred. And the last Short-term sell bogey was 1109 on 2/19, so we did not exceed that for a RunLite buy signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-23-10  The S&P closed down by 13 to 1095. Intermediate Term (IT) SELL  signal today (see following). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 2/22/10. The IT 50DMA is at 1107, so we are below that. The 50DMA bogey at at 1096, which we closed below also. This constitutes an IT SELL signal. Since the BUY and SELL both occurred within a 5 trading days period, I think we need a rule that on IT BUY signal we commit only 50% of funds for IT; then upon completion of a 2 week probationaly period, we commit the other 50% upon the next Short-term BUY signal. This will save something over the loss we experienced on this round trip. We lost 1% on this round trip, bringing the IT result for the CY to -1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -798 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +375 to +40. We dropped a +877 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. It is not a Short-term SELL since we have no positions on. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-22-10  The S&P closed down by 1 to 1108. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT BUY signal 2/19/10. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -5 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +355 to +375. We dropped a -108 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-19-10 The market teased us again with the Intermediate Term (IT) BUY signal.  The S&P closed up by 2 to 1109. This was enough to give an IT BUY signal  (see following). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT BUY signal 2/19/10. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1107 and the bogey is at 1103. We exceeded the bogey yesterday, which means the 50 DMA turned up. Now the S&P has exceeded the 50DMA of 1107, so we get the BUY signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +182 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours]  from +442 to +355. We dropped a +619 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. IT BUY signal today see above. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of January, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 883 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 2/26 the bogey is 887, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +15.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. We had an IT sell signal 1/22/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned down. For that we look at the bogey, now at 1103. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 was 27.1%; this became the booked result for the IT round trip.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term System result to date for CY10 is -0.1%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -0.5%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-18-10 The S&P closed up by 7 to 1107. At the close the S&P hovered at the doorstep of an Intermediate Term BUY signal (see following). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1108 and the bogey is at 1106. We exceeded the bogey, which means the 50 DMA has turned up but the S&P did not cross the 50DMA line which is at 1108. So we are about one point away from an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1494 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +326 to +442. We dropped a -109 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-17-10 The S&P was up modestly all day, closing up by  5 to 1100.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is DOWN. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1108, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +348 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours]  from +424 to +326. We dropped a +839 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-16-10 The S&P was up strongly by  19 to 1095. Market State advances to Run-5; also a sterile RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is DOWN. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1108, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +877 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +128 to +424. We dropped a -600 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. Since the S&P exceeded the previous bogey (minor high before last sell signal) of 1078.5 on 2/11/10 by more than 1.5 S&P points, the Market State advances to Run-5, and we get a RunLite BUY signal, but it is sterile (we do not act on t) because we have a rule that when State changes from Oscillatory to Run-5 and we get a RunLite BUY signal on the same day, we ignore the buy signal.  The Market State page  has been updated for the Run-5. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. We dont recommend selling short for the average investor. Upon the advance in State to Run-5, we cover the short sales of SPY, QQQQ and IWM we made yesterday for a modest loss. .

2-12-10 The S&P was down by 3 to 1076. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is DOWN. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1109, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. In particular, here are two of them:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/188462-the-coming-pan-european-sovereign-debt-crisis-which-country-to-short?source=email and

http://seekingalpha.com/article/188482-sovereign-default-stuck-between-dire-and-disastrous?source=email

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -108 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +174 to +128. We dropped a +120 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 2/5/10, 2/9/10 and 2/11/10  for a gain of 0.5%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -0.1%; the S&P is down 3.6% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL.   Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. We dont recommend selling short for the average investor. In Oscillatory State on today's SELL signal we may sell short. We shorted a modest amount of SPY, QQQQ and IWM.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of January, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 929 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 2/19 the bogey is 883, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +11.6%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. We had an IT sell signal 1/22/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned down. For that we look at the bogey, now at 1109. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 was 27.1%; this became the booked result for the IT round trip.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term System result to date for CY10 is -0.1%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -3.6%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-11-10 Down then up again. The S&P was finally up by 10 to 1078. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is DOWN. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1109, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/11/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +2331 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -230 to +516. We dropped a -1399 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 12% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the third buy signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. We had 3 buy signals in a row ending 2/1/10 also. At that time we commented that we would watch and see if the Bear market call of PLUNGE state was warranted for the 3 signals, and we decided it was not warranted, the PLUNGE state remains a creature of the BEAR market only. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-10-10 Up and down again. The S&P was finally down by 2 to 1068.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is DOWN. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1110, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/9/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -109 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from -310 to -230. We dropped a -513 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Despite the downturn in S&P and 5DMA, it was not a sell signal since the 5DMA was not above the upper threshold of +19.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-9-10 Up strong, relax, up strong, relax, another roller coaster. The S&P was up by 14 to 1071. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is down. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1111, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/9/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +839 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -321 to -310. We dropped a +786 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 25% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the second buy signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-8-10   The S&P was down by 9 to 1057. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is down. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1106, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/5/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -600 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -40 to -321. We dropped a +808 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-5-10  What a ride! The S&P was down hard again, then recovered nicely, finally up by 3 to 1066. Bottom reversal-- goes down more, then closes up. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is down. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1112, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/5/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +120 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -180 to -40. We dropped a -580 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. We dont recommend selling short for the average investor. On today's BUY signal we covered the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we sold short on 2/3/10, for a nice profit of 2.8%. We dont keep track of short results on the site.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of January, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 878 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 2/12 the bogey is 929, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +10.7%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. We had an IT sell signal 1/22/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned down. For that we look at the bogey, now at 1106. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down, the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 was 27.1%; this became the booked result for the IT round trip.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term System result to date for CY10 is -0.6%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -4.3%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-4-10    The S&P got really whacked today, glad we had that sell signal yesterday! The S&P was down by 34 to 1063. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is down. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1113, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/3/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1399 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume [showing after hours]. This usually indicates a Short-term market extreme, so we may see another bounce back rally shortly. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +12 to -180. We dropped a -443 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-3-10   The S&P was down today by 6 to 1097. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is down. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1113, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/3/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -513 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +150 to +12. We dropped a +181 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 1/25/10, 1/27/10 and 2/1/10  for a gain of 0.2%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -0.6%; the S&P is down 1.6% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL.   Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. We dont recommend selling short for the average investor. In Oscillatory State on today's SELL signal we may sell short. We shorted a modest amount of SPY, QQQQ and IWM.

2-2-10   In another nice advance, the S&P was up again today by 14 to 1103.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1113, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/1/10.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +786 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -92 to +150. We dropped a -425 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-1-10   The S&P was up today by 15 to 1089. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1113, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/1/10.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +808 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -215 to -92. We dropped a +190 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 12% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the 3rd BUY signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. Ordinarily we dont see 3 BUY signals in a row except in a BEAR market, which we dont have now. So I am going to be watching this and see if we should use the PLUNGE market state (which we never see except in a BEAR market), which is called for after 3 buy signals. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-29-10   The S&P was down today by 11 to 1074. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1114, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 1/27/10. If the old saw about the year going as January goes, we will have a down year. This rule works sometimes, but not all of the time. The rule about the first five days of January predicting the month of January failed this year. For a detailed analysis of the January effect, showing that it is indeed predictive, see http://www.finance.pamplin.vt.edu/news/articles/january.pdf.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1444 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from -325 to -215. We dropped a -1129 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of January, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 866 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 2/5 the bogey is 878, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +11.5%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. We had an IT sell signal 1/22/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned down. For that we look at the bogey, now at 1110. When we get below the bogey, the 50DMA turns down, the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 was 27.1%; this became the booked result for this IT round trip.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term System result to date for CY10 is -0.8%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -3.7%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-28-10   The S&P was down today by 13 to 1085. Market State drops from Run-5 to Oscillatory  (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1115, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 1/27/10.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -443 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -457 to -325. We dropped a -1104 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The violation of the last bogey (minor low before last buy signal), of S&P 1092 on 1/26/10, whiile a normal sell signal was not generated, gives a drop in Market State from Run-5 to Oscillatory. This changes the 5DMA thresholds at which buy and sell signals are generated. We also may now sell short if we like. We do not sell our long positions on this signal, but wait for a normal sell signal (downturn in S&P and 5DMA when 5DMA is above the upper threshold of +19). The State change has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-27-10  Up 5, down 5, up 5, like a yo-yo. The S&P was up today by 5 to 1097. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1115, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 1/27/10.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +181 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -611 to -457. We dropped a -585 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 25% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the 2nd BUY signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms

1-26-10  The S&P lost yesterday's gain, down 5 to 1092.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10. The IT 50 DMA is at 1115, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 1/25/10.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -425 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -383 to -611. We dropped a +712 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-25-10  The S&P bounced a little today, up 5 to 1097. Short-term BUY signal (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 1/25/10.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +190 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -421 to -383. We dropped a -907 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-22-10  The S&P down hard again today, by 25 to 1092. Intermediate-Term SELL signal (see paragraph below). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 1/20/10.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1129 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -377 to -421. We dropped a +96 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400 we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 870 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 1/29 the bogey is 866, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +14.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. We have an IT sell signal today; we have penetrated the 50DMA, and it has turned down. For that we look at the bogey, now at 1093. When we get below the bogey, the 50DMA turns down, the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 is 27.1%; this becomes the booked result for this IT round trip. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 4/13/09 for a gain of 27.1%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term System result to date for CY10 is -0.8%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -2.1%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-21-10  The S&P down another bunch today, by 22 to 1116. This is why we had to sell yesterday even though we had a buy signal the day before and had to eat a loss.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 1/20/10.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1104 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -137 to -377. We dropped a +449 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400 we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-20-10  The S&P gave yesterday's advance back today, down by 12 to 1138. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 1/20/10.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -585 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +70 to -137. We dropped a -689 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 1/19/10  for a loss of 1.1%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -0.8%; the S&P is up 2.1% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. It's a shame we get a sell signal and a loser one day after a buy signal, this doesnt happen very often, but we must act on the signal, because a serious decline might be ahead. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-19-10  The S&P bounced back today, up by 14 to 1150. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 1/19/10.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +712 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -172 to +70. We dropped a +193 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Clean), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-15-10  The S&P came down hard today, by 12 to 1136. I am glad we did not buy into the peak yesterday. The 1.5 point rule (see yesterday's column) saved us. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 1/12/10.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -907 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +17 to -172. We dropped a +37 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 857 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 1/22 the bogey is 870, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +17.9%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System. Many advisors seem to use this System and it would show better for the current year, being up about 30%. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 is 32.3%. The IT result for the year 2009 was +24.3%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 is +29.3%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The S&P gain to date for CY10 is 2%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-14-10 With exasperating tension, the S&P hung right around the magic number (1148.5) for a RunLite BUY signal for several hours, finally closing up 3 to 1148.46, failing by a fraction. We shall see in the coming days if that figure of 1.5 S&P points, which we add to the previous high to get a RunLite BUY point needs to be changed. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 1/12/10.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +96 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +85 to +17. We dropped a +360 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. This was not a buy signal since we did not exceed the previous high (1147 on 1/11/10) by more than 1.5 points (to indicate significance) to get a RunLite buy signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-13-10 A surprising rally, the S&P was up 10 to 1146. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 1/12/10.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +449 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +67 to +85. We dropped a +360 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. This was not a buy signal since the 5DMA was not below the lower threshold of -5 when the upturn ocurred. Also we did not exceed the previous high (1147 on 1/11/10) by more than 1.5 points to get a RunLite buy signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-12-10 The market got whacked today, the S&P was down 11 to 1136. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 1/12/10.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -689 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +298 to +67. We dropped a +462 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term  SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 1/4/10  for a gain of 0.3%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +29.6%; the S&P is up 25.8% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-11-10 This market is the little engine that could, slowly struggling higher each day. The S&P was up 2 to 1147, a new 15 month high.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 1/4/10.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +193 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +407 to +298. We dropped a +739 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-8-10 A modest advance to end the first week of the year. The S&P was up 3 to 1145, a new 15 month high.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 1/4/10.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +37 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +315 to +407. We dropped a -422 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Friday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 843 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 1/15 the bogey is 857, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +18.9%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We are changing (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System. Many advisors seem to use this System and it would show better for the current year, being up about 30%. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 is 33.3%. The IT result for the year 2009 was +24.3%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 is +29.3%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-7-10  The S&P was up and down today, finally closing up 5 to 1142, a new 15 month high.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 1/4/10.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +436 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +196 to +315. We dropped a -158 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-6-10  The S&P struggled up 1 today to 1137, a new 15 month high.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 1/4/10.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +360 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +94 to +196. We dropped a -150 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-5-10  The S&P struggled up 4 today to 1137, a new 15 month high.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 1/4/10.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +462 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +18 to +94. We dropped a +83 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-4-10  The market boomed ahead for the first day of the year. The S&P was up 18 today to 1133. We watch the first week carefully since the old saw says the first week guides the first month and the first month guides the year. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 1/4/10.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +739 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -89 to +18. We dropped a +204 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Clean), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-31-09  The S&P was down 11 today to 1115 on the last day of the year.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/29/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -422 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +32 to -89. We dropped a +183 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/Month/Year Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 816 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 1/8 the bogey is 843, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +15.8%, using S&P as the basis. This is also the Long-term System gain for the year. We are changing (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System. Many advisors seem to use this System and it would show better for the current year, being up about 30%. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 is 31.2%. The IT result for the year is +24.3%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 is +29.3%. The S&P was +23.5% for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-30-09  The S&P was up a fraction today to 1126.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/29/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -158 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +98 to +32. We dropped a +171 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-29-09  The S&P was down today by 2 to 1126. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/29/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -150 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +254 to +98. We dropped a +627 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term  SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 12/18/09  for a gain of 1.4%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +29.3%; the S&P is up 24.7% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-28-09  The S&P was up today by 1 to 1128, a new closing high for the year. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/18/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +83 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +539 to +254. We dropped a +1512 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA, while the S&P did not turn down, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM&FIRE SELL signal). Any decline tomorrow in S&P will complete the sell signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-24-09  The S&P was up today by 6 to 1127, a new closing high for the year. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/18/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +204 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +237 to +539. We dropped a -1309 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of November, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 769 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 12/31 the bogey is 816, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +16.9%, using S&P as the basis. We are changing (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System. Many advisors seem to use this System and it would show better for the current year, being up about 30%. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 is 31.2%. The IT paragraph in Glossary has been updated for the changes. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +28%. The S&P is +24.7% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-23-09  Another slow slog for the S&P, up today by 3 to 1121, a new closing high for the year. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/18/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +183 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +219 to +237. We dropped a +96 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-22-09  The S&P was up today by 4 to 1118, a new closing high for the year. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/18/09.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +171 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose . We dropped a -381 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-21-09  The S&P was up nicely today by 12 to 1114. It is just hitting a trend line of previous minor tops. A break-through tomorrow could be rather bullish for the near term. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/18/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +627 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +69 to +109. We dropped a +429 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-18-09  Up and down around zero today, the S&P finally closing  up by 6 to 1102. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/18/09.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1512 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -174 to +69. We dropped a +297 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Clean), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of November, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 757 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 12/24 the bogey is 769, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +14.4%, using S&P as the basis. We are changing (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System. Many advisors seem to use this System and it would show better for the current year, being up about 30%. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 is 28.4%. The IT paragraph in Glossary has been updated for the changes. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +28%. The S&P is +22% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-17-09  The S&P was up down by 13 to 1096. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/15/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1309 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +144 to -174. We dropped a +278 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We get a 2nd Short-term SELL signal today since the S&P and 5DMA both turned down, but it is sterile since we sold out on 12/15/09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-16-09  The S&P was up by 1 to 1109. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT Buy signal now dates from 4/13/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/15/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +96 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +132 to +144. We dropped a +38 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. While yesterday's SELL signal was negated after hours, we will just sit tight, and expect a repeat sell signal perhaps as soon as tomorrow. We sold yesterday so there is no action to be taken. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-15-09  The S&P was down by 6 to 1108. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up).  New formula for IT System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/15/09.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -381 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from +51 to +132. We dropped a -785 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 12/9/09  for a gain of 0.7%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +28%; the S&P is up 22.7% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-14-09  The S&P was up by 8 to 1114. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. New formula for IT System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/9/09.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +429 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -118 to +51. We dropped a -418 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-11-09  The S&P was up by 4 to 1106. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/9/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +297 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from -39 to -118. We dropped a +694 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of November, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 683 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 12/18 the bogey is 757, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +14.9%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System (old system) had a SELL signal on 11/10/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.1%. We are changing (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System. Many advisors seem to use this System and it would show better for the current year, being up about 30%. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 is 29.7%. The IT paragraph in Glossary has been updated for the changes. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +27.3%. The S&P is +22.5% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-10-09  The S&P was up by 6 to 1102. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/9/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +278 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -190 to -39. We dropped a -476 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA  Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-9-09  The S&P was up by 4 to 1096. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/9/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +38 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from -158 to -190. We dropped a +196 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-8-09  The S&P was down by 11 to 1092.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/3/09.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -785 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +206 to -158. We dropped a +735 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-7-09  The S&P was down by 3 to 1103.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/3/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -117 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +272 to +206. We dropped a +211 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-4-09  The S&P was up strongly at first, then closed modestly higher, but not enough to give a RunLight buy signal. It was up by 6 to 1106.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/3/09.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +694 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +11 to +272. We dropped a -609 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. To get a RunLight buy signal the S&P would have to have closed at 1110.7, which is the last bogey (minor high before the 12/3/09 sell signal) plus 1.5 points. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of November, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 735 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 12/11 the bogey is 683, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +14.8%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 11/10/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.1%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +27.3%. The S&P is +22.4% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-3-09  The S&P was down today by 9 to 1100. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/3/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -476 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +171 to +11. We dropped a +324 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 11/23/09 and 11/25/09  for a loss of 0.5%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +27.3%; the S&P is up 21.8% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-2-09  The S&P is stuck, up today by only a fraction to 1109. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/25/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +196 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +109 to +171. We dropped a -115 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-1-09  The S&P was up nicely today up by 13 to 1109. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/25/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +735 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +87 to +109. We dropped a +626 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-30-09  The S&P was in a lazy mood today, finally up by 4 to 1096. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/25/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +211 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -12 to +87. We dropped a -284 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-27-09 In a holiday-shortened day, the S&P was down by 19 to 1091. We shall see if the old saw about the market going the wrong way on a holiday holds true Monday. (The market being down would be "wrong", the right way would be up, in accordance with our buy signal on 11/25. An up Monday would prove the rule.) THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this ma/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -609 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from -57 to -12. We dropped a -835 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.rket doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/25

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 770 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 12/4 the bogey is 735, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +13.3%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 11/10/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.1%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +27.9%. The S&P is +20.8% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-25-09 Another sleepy day, the S&P was up by 5 to 1111. Short term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/25/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +324 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -109 to -57. We dropped a +66 from the average from six days ago, giving a  slight negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 25% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the second BUY signal in a row) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-24-09 A sleepy day, the S&P was down by 1 to 1106.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/23/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -115 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -78 to -109. We dropped a +39 from the average from six days ago, giving a  neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Yesterday we had an after hours change in 5DMA that negated the buy signal. In this case we do not un-do the buy by selling. We are very close to a bona fide buy signal so we will wait. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-23-09 A nice advance, the S&P was up by 15 to 1106. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/23/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +626 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from -30 to -78. We dropped a +865 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is sDirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-20-09 The S&P was down by 4 to 1091.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/10/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1012 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +111 to -176. We dropped a +422 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 827 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 11/27 the bogey is 770, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +13.3%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 11/10/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.1%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +27.9%. The S&P is +20.8% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-19-09 The S&P was down by 15 to 1095.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/10/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -835 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +132 to +111. We dropped a -730 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-18-09 The S&P teased us around the zero line today, finally closing down by 1 to 1110.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/10/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +66 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +184 to +132. We dropped a +322 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  Sterile SELL signal today. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA would be a SELL signal, but we had no positions on. The last almost-buy signal (on 11/13/09) occurred with the 5DMA above the lower threshold, so it was not a proper signal. Is a pity since it would have been profitable. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-17-09 A mostly down day, but the S&P finally closed up by 1 to 1110.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/10/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +39 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +144 to +184. We dropped a -160 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-16-09 The S&P advanced smartly by 16 to 1109.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/10/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +865 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +192 to +144. We dropped a +1104 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-13-09 The S&P advanced by 6 to 1094.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/10/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +422 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +109 to +192. We dropped a +11 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. The upturn in 5DMA and S&P did not give a buy signal since the 5DMA was not below the lower threshhold of -5 when the upturn occurred.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 869 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 11/20 the bogey is 827, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +13.5%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 11/10/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.1%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +27.9%. The S&P is +21.1% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-12-09 The S&P finally reversed for real, dropping by 11 to 1087. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the Intermediate-term (IT) on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/10/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -730 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +444 to +109. We dropped a +941 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-11-09 The S&P advanced by 6 to 1099. Market State advances to Run-5 (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 11/11/09) (strongly up). We sold for the IT on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/10/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +322 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +360 to +444. We dropped a -97 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The violation of the previous bogey (minor high after which a sell signal was seen) of 1093.1 on 11/9/09 by more than 1.5 S&P points today raises the Market State from Oscillatory to Run-5. This changes the 5DMA levels at which buy and sell signal are given. It was also a RunLite BUY signal, but it must be ignored because of the rule that when State advances from Oscillatory to Run-5 and RunLite BUY signal occur on the same day, the BUY signal must be ignored. The Market State page has been updated for the Run-5. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-10-09 The S&P fell by a tiny fraction to 1093. Short-term and Intermediate term (IT) SELL signals today (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We sold for the IT on 11/10/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/10/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -160 (million shares). Yesterday's up/down volume ratio of more than 10:1 was a harbinger of today's SELL signal. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +489 to +360. We dropped a +489 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 10/19/09  for a loss of 0.5%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +27.9%; the S&P is up 17.6% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The IT System was sold today; we recorded a loss of 0.5% on the trade from 10/19 to today, bringing the result for the CY to +16.1%. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-9-09 The S&P boomed ahead by 24 to 1093.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1104 (million shares), with an up/down ratio of more than 10:1, indicating a market extreme, usually. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +297 to +489. We dropped a +142 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-6-09  An up and down day. The S&P finished ahead by 3 to 1069.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +11 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -4 to +297. We dropped a -1493 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 826 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 11/13 the bogey is 869, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +11%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a BUY signal on 10/19/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +28.3%. The S&P is +18.4% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-5-09  The S&P boomed ahead by 20 to 1067.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +2258 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +37 to -4. We dropped a +1146 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-4-09 Roller coaster day. After being up strongly, the S&P whimpered to a close of +1 at 1047.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -97 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -214 to +37. We dropped a -1354 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-3-09 Another modest advance today, the S&P rose by 3 to 1045.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +489 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -411 to -214. We dropped a -494 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-2-09 A modest advance today, the S&P rose by 7 to 1043.   THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +142 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -648 to -411. We dropped a -1045 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal, the third in a row. This signal is sterile since we are already 100% invested. Three BUY signals in a row in a BEAR market gives a PLUNGE Market State, but in a BULL market we have not seen it, so we will be watching this carefully. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-30-09 We got really whacked today, the S&P fell by 30 to 1036.   THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1493 (million shares). The declining volume was more than 10 times up volume; sometimes this indicates a short-term market extreme, so perhaps Monday will be up. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -533 to -648. We dropped a -920 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 832 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 11/6 the bogey is 826, which we are nicely above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +7.6%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a BUY signal on 10/19/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +28.3%. The S&P is +14.7% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-29-09 Luckily, today was the mirror image of yesterday.  The S&P rose by 23 to 1066.   THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09. See 10/28/09 column for comments on IT System. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1146 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -637 to -533. We dropped a +627 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal today (the second in a row). Unfortunately it is sterile since we are already 100% invested from the last BUY signal. The Market State page  has been updated for the Short-term BUY signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-28-09  The market got whacked today, the S&P fell by 21 to 1043.   THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09. But we are going to have to re-think the last IT system signal (see 10/19/09 column). We were uncomfortable with the last signal, based on upward re-penetration of the upward trend line. It turns out that was a very slight penetration and was a head fake. We will not recognize such patterns as BUY signals in the future. Right now we are stuck in the IT long position, but will close that out on the next Short-term SELL signal. Meanwhile we are changing the Long Purchase State to Dirty; this changes the percentage of assets deployed on a Short-term BUY signal. This has been changed on the Market State page. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.  We see no changes required in the Short-term System even though we are going to have a loss on the current long position.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1354 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -493 to -637. We dropped a -634 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-27-09  The S&P fell by 4 to 1063.   THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -494 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -529 to -493. We dropped a -679 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The upturn in 5DMA, while it was below the lower threshhold of -28 and while the S&P did not turn up, gives an ARM (first half of ARM&FIRE BUY signal, which will be sterile since we are 100% invested from the last BUY signal). See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-26-09  The S&P fell by 13 to 1067.   THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1045 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -236 to -530. We dropped a +422 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-23-09  The S&P fell by 13 to 1079.6.  Market State falls to OSCILLATORY (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/23/09) (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -920 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -195 to -236. We dropped a -713 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  There was no sell signal because the 5DMA was not above the upper threshhold of +2.5 when today's downturn occurred. However the S&P fell below the buy bogey (last minor low-1081.4 after which we got the BUY signal of 10/22/09) by more than 1.5 S&P points. This lapse causes a drop of Market State from Run-5 to OSCILLATORY but does not generate a Short-term sell signal. The Market State page has been updated for the state change.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 850.1 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/30 the bogey is 832, which we are nicely above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +12.1%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a BUY signal on 10/19/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +28.3%. The S&P is +19.5% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-22-09  Up and down today, finally the S&P rose by 12 to 1093. Short-term BUY signal today (see below). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 10/14/09) (very strongly up). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/22/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +627 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -306 to -195. We dropped a +70 from the average from six days ago, giving a slight negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We discovered an arithmetical error today in calculating the 5DMA on 10/16/09, which changed the conclusion we drew on 10/20 that  a Short-term SELL signal had not occurred because the 5DMA was not above +2.5. So we did have a SELL signal on 10/20. We must correct the record since the System must follow the rules even if an oversight occurs. On 10/20 we sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 10/19/09  for a loss of  0.6%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +28.3%; the S&P is up 21% (as of today) for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols.

To complicate matters further, the upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal today. We bought with 100% of available Short-term funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is CLEAN) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM.  The Market State page  has been updated for the Short-term BUY signal and the aforementioned SELL signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-21-09  The S&P fell by 10 to 1083. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 10/14/09) (very strongly up). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/19/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -634 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from+22 to -306. We dropped a +1012 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-20-09  The S&P retreated by 7 to 1091. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 10/14/09) (very strongly up). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside; we bought for the IT on 10/19/09.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/19/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -679 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +120 to +22. We dropped a -192 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. There was no sell signal since the 5DMA was not above the upper threshhold of +2.5 when the downturn in S&P and 5DMA occurred. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-19-09  The S&P advanced by 10 to 1098. Short and Intermediate-term BUY signals today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 10/14/09) (very strongly up). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside, we bought for the IT on 10/19/09.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/19/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +422 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +100 to +120. We dropped a +326 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA and S&P while the 5DMA was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available Short-term funds for equities (since Long Purchase State becomes CLEAN with the IT BUY signal) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. We were waiting for a Short-term BUY signal to initiate the Intermediate-term positions which were signalled on 10/14 (see that column). We bought with 100% of available funds for Intermediate-term investing equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. The Market State page  has been updated for the Short and Intermediate-term BUY signals. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-16-09  The S&P fell by 9 to 1088.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 10/14/09) (very strongly up). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside, so we are watching for a BUY point for the IT.  We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/13/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -2798 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +285 to +100. We dropped a +208 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA and S&P while the 5DMA was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal, but it is sterile since we have no positions on. This once again shows the wisdom of the rule mentioned on 10/14 (see that column) that in a change to Run-5 State with a simultaneous RunLite BUY signal, the BUY signal should be ignored. If we had bought on 10/14, we would have a loss with the sale today.No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 890.4 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/23 the bogey is 850, which we are nicely above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +12.9%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 9/1/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +28.9%. The S&P is +20.4% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-15-09  The S&P limped ahead by 3 to 1095.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 10/14/09) (very strongly up). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside, so we are watching for a BUY point for the IT.  We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/13/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +70 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +398 to +285. We dropped a +636 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA, while the S&P did not turn down, gives an ARM (first half of ARM&FIRE sell signal). Any downturn tomorrow in S&P will complete the sell signal. But we have no Short-term position on, so the signal will be sterile. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-14-09  The S&P blasted through the previous recent high, up 19 to 1092. Market State rises to Run-5 (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 10/14/09) (very strongly up). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT) on the upside, so we are watching for a BUY point for the IT.  We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/13/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1012 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +186 to +398. We dropped a -48 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the S&P exceeded the previous minor high of 1076, set on 10/12/09, which preceded the last Short-term SELL signal, the Market State rises to Run-5. It also generates a RunLite buy signal, but we do not act upon it because of the rule that when OSCILLATORY State changes to Run-5 State and RunLite buy signal occur on same day, we ignore the RunLite signal. No signals today. It also appears the IT trendline has been violated on the upside, possibly generating an IT buy signal, we will watch this and possibly buy for IT on the next Short-term BUY signal. The Market State page has been updated for the State change. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-13-09  The S&P finally turned, down 3 to 1073. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/1/09), neither strongly up nor down. We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/13/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -192 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +370 to +186. We dropped a +729 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 9/28/09 and 10/5/09  for a gain of +1.2%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +28.9%; the S&P is up 18.8% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-12-09  The S&P managed another gain, up 5 to 1076. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/1/09), neither strongly up nor down.. We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/5/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +326 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +482 to +370. We dropped a +884 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-9-09  Struggling and straining, the S&P managed another gain, up 6 to 1071. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/1/09), neither strongly up nor down.. We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/5/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +208 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +338 to +482. We dropped a -509 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 931.8 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/16 the bogey is 890, which we are nicely above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +11.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 9/1/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +27.7%. The S&P is +18.6% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-8-09  The S&P closed up 8 to 1066. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/1/09), neither strongly up nor down.. We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/5/09.

The early reading on on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +636 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -75 to +338. We dropped a -1433 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-7-09  An up and down day, the S&P closed up 3 to 1058. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/1/09), neither strongly up nor down.. We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/5/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -48 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -128 to -75. We dropped a -312 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-6-09  The S&P moved nicely higher again, up 14 to 1055. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/1/09), neither strongly up nor down.. We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/5/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +729 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -270 to -128. We dropped a +20 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-5-09  The S&P moved nicely higher, up 15 to 1041. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/1/09), neither strongly up nor down.. We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/5/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +884 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -302 to -270. We dropped a +723 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter is below the lower threshold of -5, gives a short-term BUY signal. We bought with 25% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the second BUY signal in a row) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-2-09 Up and down action again, the S&P finally closed down by 5 to 1025. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/1/09), neither strongly up nor down.. We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/28/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -509 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -282 to -302. We dropped a -409 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 872.8 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/9 the bogey is 932, which we are nicely above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +6.4%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 9/1/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +27.7%. The S&P is +13.5% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-1-09 Eliminating any ambiguity as to the short and intermediate-term trend, the S&P closed down hard by 27 to 1030. This drops the Market State to OSCILLATORY (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State OSCILLATORY (since 10/1/09), neither strongly up nor down.. We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/28/09. The ambiguity in the IT System mentioned recently (see yesterday's column) has been resolved. It is good we were cautious. The possible IT buy on 9/28/09 was bogus and was not acted upon.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1433 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume (usually indicating an extreme, meaning a short-term bottom). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -193 to -282. We dropped a -986 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline of the S&P below the previous bogey (minor low of 1044 on 9/25/09, after which the last Short-term buy signal was given) causes the Market State to drop to OSCILLATORY. We do not sell out the Short-term position on today's signal. The Market State page has been updated for the OSCILLATORY State. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-30-09 Up and down again today, the S&P finally closing down by 4 to 1057. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/28/09. There is an ambiguity in the IT System. It should be cleared up soon. There is a lower trendline established now that may indicate that 9/28/09 should have been an IT buy signal. In a couple weeks we shall see if this is true or not. Right now we are watching it and not acting on IT System.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -312 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -291 to -193. We dropped a -805 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-29-09 Up and down by smalls today, the S&P fell by 2 to 1061. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/28/09. There is an ambiguity in the IT System. It should be cleared up soon. There is a lower trendline established now that may indicate that 9/28/09 should have been an IT buy signal. In a couple weeks we shall see if this is true or not. Right now we are watching it and not acting on IT System.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +20 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -169 to -291. We dropped a +634 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. The decline in S&P and 5DMA did not constitute a sell signal since the 5DMA was not above the upper threshold of +2.5. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-28-09 The S&P moved strongly ahead by 19 to 1063. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/28/09. There is an ambiguity in the IT System. It should be cleared up soon. There is a lower trendline established now that may indicate that today should have been an IT buy signal. In a couple weeks we shall see if this is true or not. Right now we are watching it and not acting on IT System.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +723 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -365 to -169. We dropped a -260 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter is below the lower threshold of -5, gives a short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-25-09 The S&P fell another 6 to 1044. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/17/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -409 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -287 to -365. We dropped a -17 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/ Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 890.4 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line has finally turned up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/2 the bogey is 873, which we are nicely above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +8.4%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 9/1/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +27.7%. The S&P is +15.6% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-24-09 The S&P fell another 10 to 1051. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P rallied, then  retreated from this up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals.  We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/17/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -986 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -163 to -287. We dropped a -369 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-23-09 The S&P fell 10 to 1061. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P  retreated from the up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals. We should get a decline from here, it is very rare to see the market re-penetrate the up trendline after it had pierced it on the downside, which occurred on 9/1/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/17/09.

The early reading on on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -805 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +216 to -163. We dropped a +1092 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. If we had acted on yesterday's Runlite buy signal, we would have a money-losing sell signal today, so once again the wisdom of the RunLite Flag is proven. The flag is marked as reaffirmed today on the Market State page. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-22-09 The S&P rose 7 to 1072. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P  retreated from the up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals. We should get a decline from here, it is very rare to see the market re-penetrate the up trendline after it had pierced it on the downside, which occurred on 9/1/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/17/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +634 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +139 to +216. We dropped a +250 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Since the S&P closed above 1070.3 (the previous minor high +1.5), we have a RunLite buy signal, but it will be ignored since it is the second RunLite signal in a row and we have the RunLite Flag which is Dirty, meaning we may not buy on the signal. It is dirty because the last time we had a second RunLite signal it was not profitable. If we observe that this signal would have been profitable, then the Flag becomes Clean and we may buy the next RunLite signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-21-09 The S&P fell 4 to 1065. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P  retreated from the up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals. We should get a decline from here, it is very rare to see the market re-penetrate the up trendline after it had pierced it on the downside, which occurred on 9/1/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/17/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -260 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +281 to +139. We dropped a +448 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-18-09 Another dull day for the S&P (especially for a quadruple witching day), it rose 3 to 1068. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT), so we sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P  retreated from the up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals. We should get a decline from here, it is very rare to see the market re-penetrate the up trendline after it had pierced it on the downside, which occurred on 9/1/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/17/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -17 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +264 to +281. We dropped a -102 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. If the S&P had closed above 1070.3, we would have had a RunLite buy signal, but it would have been ignored since it would be the second RunLite signal in a row and we have the RunLite Flag which is Dirty, meaning we may not buy on the signal. It is dirty because the last time we had a second RunLite signal it was not profitable. If we observe that such a signal is profitable, then the Flag becomes Clean and we may buy the next RunLite signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/ Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 879.7 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line has finally turned up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 9/25 the bogey is 890, which we are nicely above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +10.9%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 9/1/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +27.7%. The S&P is +18.3% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-17-09 The S&P went mostly nowhere today, falling 3  to 1066. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P today retreated from the up trendline set by the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals. We should get a decline from here, it is very rare to see the market re-penetrate the up trendline after it had pierced it on the downside, which occurred on 9/1/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal today.

The early reading on on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -369 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +533 to +264. We dropped a +975 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 9/14/09  for a gain of +1.5%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +27.7%; the S&P is up 17.5% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-16-09 The S&P rose nicely by 16  to 1069.   THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We sold for IT on 9/1/09. The S&P today is just touching the up trendline from the lows in July and August; this trendline determines the IT signals. We should get a decline from here, it is very rare to see the market re-penetrate the up trendline after it had pierced it on the downside, which occurred on 9/1/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal on 9/14/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1092 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +397 to +533. We dropped a +414 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-15-09 The S&P was up by 3 to 1053.   THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We sold for IT on 9/1/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal on 9/14/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +250 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +430 to +397. We dropped a +415 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-14-09 The S&P was up by 7 to 1049. RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We sold for IT on 9/1/09.  

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +448 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +490 to +430. We dropped a +749 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. Since we exceeded the bogey (minor high before last SELL signal) set at S&P 1044 on 9/10/09 by more than 1.5 points, we get a RunLite BUY signal today. We bought with 50% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-11-09 The S&P was down by 1 to 1043. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).   THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We sold for IT on 9/1/09. We had a Short-term System SELL signal today.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -102 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +671 to +490. We dropped a +803 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday next  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 9/3/09  for a gain of +3.9%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +26.1%; the S&P is up 15.4% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/ Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 876 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line has finally turned up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 9/18 the bogey is 880, which we are nicely above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +8.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 9/1/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +26.1%. The S&P is +15.4% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-10-09 The S&P was up by 11 to 1044.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We sold for IT on 9/1/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/3/09. The S&P has returned to the IT trend line and the 5DMA is over-bought. We expect a decline any day and that decline will be an important test of the IT trend. If the minor support at S&P 995 does not hold, a further IT decline would be expected. The S&P chart also looks like a possible rolling-over top or a head and shoulders top with a neckline at 995.

The early reading on on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +975 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +429 to +671. We dropped a -235 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Thursday next  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought.  No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-9-09 The S&P was up by 8 to 1033.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We sold for IT on 9/1/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/3/09.

The early reading on on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +414 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +57 to +429. We dropped a -1447 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-8-09 The S&P was up by 9 to 1025.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We sold for IT on 9/1/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/3/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +415 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -190 to +57. We dropped a -821 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-4-09 The S&P was up by 13 to 1016.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We sold for IT on 9/1/09. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/3/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +749 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -294 to -190. We dropped a +231 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 896 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line has finally turned up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 9/11 the bogey is 876, which we are nicely above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +5.5%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 9/1/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 16.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +22.2%. The S&P is +12.5% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-3-09 The S&P was up by 8 to 1003. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We sold for IT on 9/1/09. Short-term System BUY signal 9/3/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +803 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -368 to -294. We dropped a +434 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter is below the lower threshold of -5, gives a short-term BUY signal (even though the action looks like just a return to the IT trendline before a greater decline). We bought with 50% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-2-09 The S&P was up, down, and around all day, closing down by 3 to 995. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We sold for IT on 9/1/09. The Short-term System sold out on 8/28/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -235 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -339 to -368. We dropped a -93 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-1-09 The S&P was down hard by 23 to 998. The Intermediate-term (IT) up trendline was broken, leading to a IT SELL signal today. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the up trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We sold for IT on 9/1/09. The Short-term System sold out on 8/28/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1447 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, which usually indicates a market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +183 to -339 . We dropped a +1166 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA  Wednesday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  We sold out IT positions for a gain of 7%, bringing the realized gain for IT to 16.5% for the CY. The Market State page has been updated for the IT sell. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-31-09 The S&P was down 8 to 1021.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System sold out on 8/28/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -821 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +376 to +183 . We dropped a +143 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA  Tuesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-28-09 The S&P was down 2 to 1029. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System sold today the stocks we bought  on 8/18/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +231 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +584 to +376 . We dropped a +1271 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 8/18/09  for a gain of +3.9%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +22.2%; the S&P is up 13% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 800 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line has finally turned up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 9/4 the bogey is 896, which we are nicely above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +6.7%, using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a BUY signal on 7/15/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 9.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +22.2%. The S&P is +13.9% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-27-09 The S&P was up  2 to 1030.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is long, having bought on 8/18/09.

The early reading on on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +434 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +640 to +584. We dropped a +712 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. The decline in 5DMA, while it is above +2.5, while the S&P did not turn down, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM&FIRE SELL signal). Any decline in S&P tomorrow will complete the sell signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-26-09 The S&P was up a fraction to 1028.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is long, having bought on 8/18/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -93 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +695 to +640. We dropped a +182 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. The decline in 5DMA, while it is above +2.5, while the S&P did not turn down, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM&FIRE SELL signal). Any decline in S&P tomorrow will complete the sell signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-25-09 The S&P was up 2 to 1028.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is long, having bought on 8/18/09.

The early reading on on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1166 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +598 to +695. We dropped a +680 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-24-09 The S&P was down 1 to 1026.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is long, havng bought on 8/18/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +142 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +357 to +598. We dropped a -1060 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-21-09 The S&P was up 19 to 1026.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09! (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is long, havng bought on 8/18/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1271 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -26 to +357. We dropped a -641 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The ratio of up volume to down volume was greater than 10 to 1, which  usually indicates an extreme, or turning point. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 873 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line has finally turned up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 8/28 the bogey is 800, which we are nicely above now. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a BUY signal on 7/15/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 9.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +18.9%. The S&P is +13.6% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-20-09 The S&P was up 11 to 1007.  THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is long, havng bought on 8/18/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +712 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -91 to -26. We dropped a +382 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-19-09 The S&P was up 7 to 997.  THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is long, havng bought on 8/18/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +182 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +21 to -91. We dropped a +743 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-18-09 The S&P was up 10 to 990. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +680 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -263 to +21. We dropped a -739 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter is below the lower threshold of -5, gives a short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Clean) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY.   See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-17-09 Big downer today, the S&P was off 24 to 980. This will be a nice stress relief to the very strong advance of recent weeks.  THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is now quiet since we sold on 8/10/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1060 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -47 to -263. We dropped a +20 from the average from six days ago, giving a  neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold.  No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-14-09 The S&P today was down 9 to 1004. Good thing we ignored buy signal yesterday, as we would have had sell signal for loss today on Short-term System.  THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is now quiet since we sold on 8/10/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -641 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +256 to -47. We dropped a +873 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 931 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line has finally turned up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 8/21 the bogey is 873, which we are nicely above now. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a BUY signal on 7/15/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 9.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +18.9%. The S&P is +10.7% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-13-09 The S&P today was up 7 to 1013. RunLite buy signal is to be ignored (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is now quiet since we sold on 8/10/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +382 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +176 to +256. We dropped a -18 from the average from six days ago, giving a  neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  Since we exceeded the last bogey (minor high) of 1010.5 on 8/7/09 by more than 1.5 points, we get a Short-term RunLite buy signal, but we must ignore it since it is the second RunLite buy signal in a row and the last one was not profitable  (the RunLite flag is Dirty).  If this signal turns out to have been profitable (on paper), the RunLite flag will turn Clean and we may then buy the NEXT RunLite buy signal if it occurs. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-12-09 The S&P today was up 12 to 1006.  THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is now quiet since we sold on 8/10/09.

The early reading on on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +743 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours]  from +188 to +176. We dropped a +806 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-11-09 The S&P declined  by 13 to 994.  THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is now quiet since we sold on 8/10/09.

The early reading on on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -739 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +421 to +188. We dropped a +422 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-10-09 The S&P declined modestly by 3 to 1007. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).   THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is now quiet since we sold today.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +20 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +607 to +421. We dropped a +950 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 8/5/09  for a loss of 0.5%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +18.3%; the S&P is up 11.5% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Since this was the second RunLite signal in a row and it was not profitable, this reaffirms the RunLite flag as Dirty. When the RunLite flag is Dirty, we do not buy on a RunLite signal until we see a notional (on paper only) trade that is profitable. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-7-09 The S&P moved strongly ahead by 13 to 1011. RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph).   THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1905 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +541 to +607. We dropped a +543 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The rise of the S&P above the previous bogey (minor high of 1006 on 8/4/09) by more than 1.5 S&P points gives a RunLite BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Clean) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 969 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line has finally turned up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 8/14 the bogey is 931, which we are nicely above now. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a BUY signal on 7/15/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 9.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +18.9%. The S&P is +11.9% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-6-09 The S&P fell by 6 to 997.   THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is quiet after the sell signal on 8/5/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -18 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +652 to +541. We dropped a +540 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-5-09 The S&P fell by 3 to 1003. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +807 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours]  from +473 to +652. We dropped a -91 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 7/30/09  for a gain of 1.6%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +18.9%; the S&P is up 11% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols.  The Market State page has been updated for the Short-term SELL .[SELL was negated after hours].  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-4-09 In a dull session, the S&P advanced by 3 to 1006. THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is long, having bought on 7/30/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +422 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +388 to +473. We dropped a -3 from the average from six days ago, giving a  neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-3-09 The S&P moved smartly ahead today by 15 to 1003. THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see 7/31/09 column). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is long, having bought on 7/30/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +950 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +253 to +388. We dropped a +274 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-31-09 The S&P crept  ahead today by 1 to 988. THE 100% BULL MARKET HAS ARRIVED! (see next two paragraphs). See 7/17/09 column for the 50% BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. The Short-term System is long, having bought on 7/30/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +543 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +201 to +253. We dropped a +284 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The 9 month moving average (9MMA) of the S&P has finally turned up and the S&P was already above the 9MMA line, which combine to give our signal for a 100% BULL Market. We increased our buys to 100% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Clean) in equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BULL. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has finally turned up (the S&P needed to close above 969), indicating a 100% BULL Market! In our BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 877 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line has finally turned up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 8/7 the bogey is 969, which we are just above now. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a BUY signal on 7/15/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 9.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +17.3%. The S&P is +9.3% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-30-09 The S&P moved smartly ahead today by 12 to 987. RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph). See 7/17/09 column for NEW BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a 50% BULL market. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. We will need to get above S&P 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P (almost a lead-pipe cinch to get it tomorrow). The test of the March lows we have been calling for since then has probably been completed with the 879 low of 7/10/09. A neckline of sorts is seen on 1/6/09 at 935 and 6/12/09 at 946; if we exceed 948 on close of 7/31/09, we are very likely to hear that 100% BULL market call.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +540 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +280 to +201. We dropped a +935 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The S&P today exceeded the last minor high (982 on 7/27/09) at which a sell signal  was given (called the bogey) by more than 1.5 S&P points, so that gives a short-term RunLite BUY signal (no matter what the 5DMA does). We bought with 100% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Clean) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-29-09 The S&P fell today by 5 to 975.  See 7/17/09 column for NEW BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a 50% BULL market. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. We will need to get above S&P 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. The test of the March lows we have been calling for since then has probably been completed with the 879 low of 7/10/09. A neckline of sorts is seen on 1/6/09 at 935 and 6/12/09 at 946; if we exceed 948 on close of 7/31/09, we are very likely to hear that 100% BULL market call. The Short-term System had a sell signal on 7/17/09, so is in waiting mode.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -91 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +331 to +280. We dropped a +163 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-28-09 The S&P fell today by 3 to 979.6.  See 7/17/09 column for NEW BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a 50% BULL market. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. We will need to get above S&P 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. The test of the March lows we have been calling for since then has probably been completed with the 879 low of 7/10/09. A neckline of sorts is seen on 1/6/09 at 935 and 6/12/09 at 946; if we exceed 948 on close of 7/31/09, we are very likely to hear that 100% BULL market call. The Short-term System had a sell signal on 7/17/09, so is in waiting mode.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -3 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +288 to +331. We dropped a -218 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; it would have been a Short-term SELL signal if we had any positions on due to the downturn in S&P and the downturn yesterday in 5DMA. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-27-09 The S&P rose again today by 3 to 982.  See 7/17/09 column for NEW BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a 50% BULL market. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. We will need to get above S&P 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. The test of the March lows we have been calling for since then has probably been completed with the 879 low of 7/10/09. A neckline of sorts is seen on 1/6/09 at 935 and 6/12/09 at 946; if we exceed 948 on close of 7/31/09, we are very likely to hear that 100% BULL market call. The Short-term System had a sell signal on 7/17/09, so is in waiting mode.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +274 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  [after hours]  from +352 to +288. We dropped a +597 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-24-09 The S&P rose again today by 3 to 979.  See 7/17/09 column for NEW BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a 50% BULL market. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. We will need to get above S&P 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. The test of the March lows we have been calling for since then has probably been completed with the 879 low of 7/10/09. A neckline of sorts is seen on 1/6/09 at 935 and 6/12/09 at 946; if we exceed 948 on close of 7/31/09, we are very likely to hear that 100% BULL market call. The Short-term System had a sell signal on 7/17/09, so is in waiting mode.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +284 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +258 to +352. We dropped a -186 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. So  we got the early-warning 50% signal and we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is finally above that 9MMA average line, but the declining average still indicates a BEAR market. We will need to get above 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 941 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line has finally turned up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/31 the bogey is 877, which we are well above now. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a BUY signal on 7/15/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 9.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +17.3%. The S&P is +8.4% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-23-09 The S&P rose strongly by 22 today to 976.  See 7/17/09 column for NEW BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a 50% BULL market. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. We will need to get above S&P 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. The test of the March lows we have been calling for since then has probably been completed with the 879 low of 7/10/09. A neckline of sorts is seen on 1/6/09 at 935 and 6/12/09 at 946; if we exceed 948 on close of 7/31/09, we are very likely to hear that 100% BULL market call. The Short-term System had a sell signal on 7/17/09, so is in waiting mode.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +935 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +132 to +258. We dropped a +302 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; it was not a RunLite buy signal since the previous nearby high (954.6 on 7/21/09) which was exceeded today was not a precursor to a sell signal, and is thus not a bogey (this is a rare occurrence so we are going to watch this for a possible rule change). See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-22-09 The S&P fell by 1 today to 954.  See 7/17/09 column for NEW BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a 50% BULL market. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. We will need to get above S&P 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. The test of the March lows we have been calling for since then has probably been completed with the 879 low of 7/10/09. A neckline of sorts is seen on 1/6/09 at 935 and 6/12/09 at 946; if we exceed 948 on close of 7/31/09, we are very likely to hear that 100% BULL market call. The Short-term System had a sell signal on 7/17/09, so is in waiting mode.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +163 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +354 to +132. We dropped a +1277 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-21-09 The S&P crept  ahead today by 3 to 955.  See 7/17/09 column for NEW BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a 50% BULL market. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. We will need to get above S&P 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. The test of the March lows we have been calling for since then has probably been completed with the 879 low of 7/10/09. A neckline of sorts is seen on 1/6/09 at 935 and 6/12/09 at 946; if we exceed 948 on close of 7/31/09, we are very likely to hear that 100% BULL market call. The Short-term System had a sell signal on 7/17/09, so is in waiting mode.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -218 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +472 to +354. We dropped a +372 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-20-09 The S&P moved smartly ahead today by 11 to 951. The Market State advances from Oscillatory to Run-5 today (see next paragraph). See 7/17/09 column for NEW BULL MARKET announcement. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a 50% BULL market. We are in Market State Run-5 (strong advance). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. We will need to get above S&P 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. The test of the March lows we have been calling for since then has probably been completed with the 879 low of 7/10/09. A neckline of sorts is seen on 1/6/09 at 935 and 6/12/09 at 946; if we exceed 948 on close of 7/31/09, we are very likely to hear that 100% BULL market call.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +597 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +547 to +472. We dropped a +969 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above 400, we say the market is over-bought. The rise in S&P above the last sell bogey of 941, set on 7/16/09, by more than 1.5 S&P points, raises the Market State from Oscillatory to Run-5. It also gives a RunLite BUY signal, but by rule discussed in Glossary (see "Run"), we ignore a RunLite BUY signal on the same day as we get a Run-5 Market State change. The threshold values in 5DMA at which BUY and SELL signals are given change when the Market State changes. The Market State page has been updated for the State change. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-17-09 The S&P retreated today by a fraction to 940, but that was enough to GIVE A 50% BULL MARKET SIGNAL TODAY, based on the 40 week moving average of the S&P. We BUY with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. A Short-term SELL signal was also given (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a 50% BULL market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09. We will need to get above S&P 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. The Short-term System  got a SELL signal today. The test of the March lows we have been calling for since then has probably been completed with the 879 low of 7/10/09. A neckline of sorts is seen on 1/6/09 at 935 and 6/12/09 at 946; if we exceed 948 on close of 7/31/09, we are very likely to hear that 100% BULL market call.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -186 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from +520 to +547. We dropped a -318 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 7/9/09 and 7/13/09 for a gain of 4.4%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +17.3%; the S&P is up 4.1% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. When we buy in the short-term system, we are constrained by the Long Purchase State (LPS). In a BEAR market, this flag (set at Dirty) limits us to buying with only 50% of available funds on first BUY signal, 25% on second BUY signal, etc. In a BULL market the LPS becomes Clean, meaning we can buy with 100% of available funds (if we like) on a BUY signal. The Market State page has been updated for the Short-term SELL, the BULL MARKET and the Long Purchase State changes. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 has finally turned up; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. So today we get the early-warning 50% signal and we BUY with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is finally above that 9MMA average line, but the declining average still indicates a BEAR market. We will need to get above 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 899 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line has finally turned up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/24 the bogey is 941, which is where we are right now. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a BUY signal on 7/15/09; the booked gain for CY09 for the IT system so far is 9.5%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +17.3%. The S&P is +4.1% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-16-09 The S&P rose again today by 8 to 941. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). We bought for IT on 7/15/09.. If we close above S&P 899 this FRIDAY we will get a 50% BULL market signal, based on the 40 week moving average of the S&P. We will need to get above 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. With a 50% signal we can buy with 50% of available funds in our Long-term System. The Short-term System  is now long stocks. The test of the March lows we have been calling for since then has probably been completed with the 879 low of 7/10/09. A neckline of sorts is seen on 1/6/09 at 935 and 6/12/09 at 946; if we exceed 948 on close, we are very likely to hear that 100% BULL market call by 7/31/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +302 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +532 to +520. We dropped a +362 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-15-09 The S&P boomed ahead today by 27 to 933. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). We have broken the down trend line for the Intermediate term (IT). Therefore, we get an IT BUY signal TODAY. If we close above S&P 899 this FRIDAY we will get a 50% BULL market signal, based on the 40 week moving average of the S&P. We will need to get above 969 on 7/31/09 to get a 100% BULL market signal based on the 9 month moving average of the S&P. With a 50% signal we can buy with 50% of available funds in our Long-term System. The Short-term System  is now long stocks. The test of the March lows we have been calling for since then has probably been completed with the 879 low of 7/10/09. A neckline of sorts is seen on 1/6/09 at 935 and 6/12/09 at 946; if we exceed 948 on close, we are very likely to hear that 100% BULL market call by 7/31/09.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1277 (million shares)(the ratio of up to down volume was greater than 10 to 1, indicating an over-done move). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +158 to +532. We dropped a -596 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The IDT (Intermediate Down Trend) becomes false today (see paragraph above); the Market State page has been updated for this and the IT BUY. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-14-09 The S&P moved ahead modestly today by 5 to 906. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate-term Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. The Short-term System  is now long stocks. In term, long term

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +372 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -59 to +158. We dropped a -714 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-13-09 The S&P stormed ahead today by 22 to 901. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate-term Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. The Short-term System  is now long.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +969 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -292 to -59. We dropped a -193 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter is below the lower threshold of -28, gives a short-term BUY signal (the second in a row). We bought with 25% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and is 2nd Buy signal in a  row) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-10-09 The S&P fell today by 4 to 879.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate-term Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. The Short-term System  is now long.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -318 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose[after hours]  from -356 to -292. We dropped a -640 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down; the S&P is slightly above the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is finally above that 9MMA average line, but the declining average still indicates a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1099 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/17 the bogey is 899, which we are slightly below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA (and 200DMA) of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line. We do notice that a couple weeks from now, if the S&P maintains its current levels, we could get a BULL market, since the Bull Bogey will be at 877. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We currently have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 6/16/09; the gain for CY09 for the IT system is 9.5%. The Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +14.4%. The S&P is -2.7% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-9-09 The S&P rose today by 3 to 883. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate-term Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. The Short-term System  is long starting today.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +362 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -376 to -356. We dropped a +262 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter is below the lower threshold of -28, gives a short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-8-09 The S&P fell today by 1 to 880. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate-term Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. The Short-term System is also quiet, but we expect a buy signal any day.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -596 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -357 to -376. We dropped a -500 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-7-09 The S&P fell today by 18 to 881. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate-term Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. The Short-term System is also quiet, but we expect a buy signal any day.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -714 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -143 to -357. We dropped a +356 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-6-09 The S&P rose slightly by 2 today to 899. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. We have two exciting pieces of news: a Rule Change and an arithmetic error has been found that changes the Short-term results for the year to a GAIN of +8.7%. The analysis we did was to examine the effect of a rule that states: Ignore Run-5 BUY signals in a BEAR market. The result is YES, that is an effective rule. We would have a gain for the year in the Short-term System of 14% if this rule had been in effect, rather than the gain of +8.7%. So in accordance with the rule that the results should present the effect of the CURRENT rule set, to show what the current rules would produce, we restate the year's results incorporating the new rule.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -193 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -86 to -143. We dropped a +91 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-2-09 The S&P fell hard by 27 today to 897. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. We have two exciting pieces of news: a Rule Change and an arithmetic error has been found that changes the Short-term results for the year to a GAIN of +8.7%. The analysis we did was to examine the effect of a rule that states: Ignore Run-5 BUY signals in a BEAR market. The result is YES, that is an effective rule. We would have a gain for the year in the Short-term System of 14% if this rule had been in effect, rather than the gain of +8.7%. So in accordance with the rule that the results should present the effect of the CURRENT rule set, to show what the current rules would produce, we restate the year's results incorporating the new rule.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -640 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +201 to -86. We dropped a +796 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. The Glossary has been updated (Run paragraph) for the Rule change. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down; the S&P is slightly above the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is finally above that 9MMA average line, but the declining average still indicates a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1213 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/10 the bogey is 1099, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA (and 200DMA) of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line. We do notice that a couple weeks from now, if the S&P maintains its current levels, we could get a BULL market, since the Bull Bogey will be at 899 in two weeks. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We currently have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 6/16/09; the gain for CY09 for the IT system is 9.5%. The Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +14.4%. The S&P is -0.4% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-1-09 The S&P rose by 4 today to 923. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +262 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +249 to +201. We dropped a +503 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-30-09 The S&P fell 8 today to 919. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -500 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +396 to +249. We dropped a +236 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-29-09 The S&P rose by 8 today to 927. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +356 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +83 to +396. We dropped a -1212 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-26-09 The S&P fell by 1 today to 919. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +91 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +183 to +83. We dropped a +594 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 6/18/09 and 6/23/09 for a gain of 0.7%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -5.5%; the S&P is up 1.7% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down; the S&P is slightly above the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is finally above that 9MMA average line, but the declining average still indicates a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1255 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/3 the bogey is 1213, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA (and 200DMA) of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We currently have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 6/16/09; the gain for CY09 for the IT system is 9.5%. The Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +14.4%. The S&P is +1.7% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-25-09 The S&P rose nicely by 19 today to 920. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +796 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +82 to +183. We dropped a +291 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-24-09 The S&P rose by 6 today to 901. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (neither strongly up nor down). The Intermediate Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +503 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -123 to +82. We dropped a -524 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-23-09 Barely a rebound, the S&P rose by 2 today to 895. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory. The Intermediate Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +236 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -315 to -123. We dropped a -723 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter is below the lower threshold of -28, gives a short-term BUY signal (second in a row). We bought with 25% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the second buy signal in a row) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-22-09 The S&P fell hard by 28 today to 893. The Market State falls from Run-5 to Oscillatory (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Oscillatory (set today). The Intermediate Up Trend that had been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1212 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from -574 to -315. We dropped a -2507 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The S&P falling today more than 1.5 points below the bogey which gave our BUY signal on 6/18 gives a change in Market State from Run-5 to Oscillatory. The bogey (previous low before BUY signal) was S&P 910.7 on 6/17/09. The Oscillatory State changes the 5DMA thresholds at which buy and sell signals are given. We do not sell out our long position established on 6/18, but wait for the next sell signal. The Market State Page has been updated for the State change. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-19-09 The S&P rose by 3 today to 921. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). The Intermediate Up Trend that has been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +594 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -706 to -574. We dropped a -66 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down; the S&P is slightly above the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is finally above that 9MMA average line, but the declining average still indicates a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1252 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 6/26 the bogey is 1255, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA (and 200DMA) of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We currently have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a SELL signal on 6/16/09; the gain for CY09 for the IT system is 9.5%. The Short-term System result for CY09 so far is +11.8%. The S&P is +2.% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-18-09 The S&P finally turned around, rising by 8 today to 918. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).(Buy cancelled by rule change 7/2/09.)

 What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). The Intermediate Up Trend that has been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +291 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from -690 to -706. We dropped a +370 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter is below the lower threshold of -5, gives a short-term BUY signal [this was negated after hours]. We bought with 50% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-17-09 A boring day, up and down, the S&P fell again by 1 today to 911. Just realized that Intermediate-Term Uptrend line was broken yesterday (see yesterday's revised column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). The Intermediate Up Trend that has been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken 6/16/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -524 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -623 to -690. We dropped a -191 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-16-09 The S&P fell again by 12 today to 912. Intermediate Uptrend line penetrated (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). The Intermediate Up Trend that has been in effect since 3/23/09 was broken today. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -723 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -146 to -623. We dropped a +160 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The chart of S&P 500 shows that the uptrend line that defines the Intermediate-term State has been broken, thus our flag IDT (Intermediate Down Trend) becomes True. We sell all Intermediate-term positions today. The gain on the Intermediate-term positions was 9.5%. The S&P 500 gained 1% year to date. The Intermediate-term System has been the most profitable this year. The Market State page has been updated for the IDT flag change. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-15-09 The S&P fell hard by 23 today to 924. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1005 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +23 to -146. We dropped a -157 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 6/9/09 for a loss of 2%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -6.1%; the S&P is up 2.3% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-12-09 The S&P rose by 1 today to 946. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -66 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from -26 to +23. We dropped a -314 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today [after hours change]. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down; the S&P is slightly above the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is finally above that 9MMA average line, but the declining average still indicates a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1242 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 6/19 the bogey is 1252, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA (and 200DMA) of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a loss of 5.7% for CY08, and we are now in an Intermediate term uptrend, with the last BUY signal occurring 3/26/09. The Short-term result for CY09 so far is +11.8%. The S&P is +4.8% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-11-09 The S&P rose 6 today to 945. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +370 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from  +26 to -26. We dropped a +630 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; after hours got an ARM signal (first half of ARM&FIRE SELL signal, any downturn in S&P tomorrow will complete SELL signal). See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-10-09 The S&P fell 3 today to 939. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -191 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from  -135 to +26. We dropped a -992 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-9-09 The S&P rose 3 today to 942. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). (Buy cancelled by rule change 7/2/09.)

What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +160 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -153 to -135. We dropped a +68 from the average from six days ago, giving a slight negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter is below the lower threshold of -5, gives a short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY.   See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-8-09 The S&P fell 1 today to 939. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -157 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +29 to -153. We dropped a +752 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-5-09 The S&P fell by 2 today to 940. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -314 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +276 to +29. We dropped a +922 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down; the S&P is slightly above the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is finally above that 9MMA average line, but the declining average still indicates a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1283 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 6/12 the bogey is 1242, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA (and 200DMA) of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a loss of 5.7% for CY08, and we are now in an Intermediate term uptrend, with the last BUY signal occurring 3/26/09. The Short-term result for CY09 so far is +11.8%. The S&P is +4.1% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-4-09 The S&P rose by 11 today to 943. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +630 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from  +287 to +276. We dropped a +683 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-3-09 The S&P fell by 13 today to 932. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -992 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from  +323 to +287. We dropped a -809 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P after yesterday's Short-term ARM signal, gives a FIRE and completes the (ARM&FIRE) SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 5/28/09 for a gain of 2.8%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -4.2%; the S&P is up 3.2% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-2-09 The S&P rose by 2 today to 945. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +68 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +497 to +323. We dropped a +935 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in 5DMA, while the S&P did not decline, gives a Short-term ARM signal (first half of ARM&FIRE SELL signal). Any decline in S&P tomorrow will complete the sell signal.  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-1-09 The S&P rose by 24 today to 943. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +752 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  +304 to +497. We dropped a -209 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought, and due for a decline, short-term. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-29-09 The S&P rose by 12 today to 919. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +922 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -39 to +304. We dropped a -794 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down; the S&P is slightly above the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1292 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 6/5 the bogey is 1283, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA (and 200DMA) of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a loss of 5.7% for CY08, and we are now in an Intermediate term uptrend, with the last BUY signal occurring 3/26/09. The Short-term result for CY08 was -42.1% (S&P was off 38% on the year). The Short-term result for CY09 so far is +11.8%. The S&P is +1.8% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-28-09 The S&P rose by 14 today to 907. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). (Buy cancelled by rule change 7/2/09.)

What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +683 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -182 to -39. We dropped a -35 from the average from six days ago, giving a slight positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter is below the lower threshold of -5, gives a short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-27-09 The S&P fell back by 17 today to 890. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -809 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +10 to -182. We dropped a +153 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today would be a SELL signal if we had a position on. So the discussion yesterday leads to the conclusion we should not act on an after hours ARM signal. We also re-confirm the RunLite State as Dirty; this flag saved us from buying yesterday and selling today at a loss. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-26-09 The S&P rose strongly by 23 to 910. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +935 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from  +69 to +10. We dropped a +1229 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Two unusual things today. We have a RunLite BUY signal because we exceeded the previous high before the last sell signal (the bogey) of 903.5 on 5/20/09 by more than 1.5 points, but the RunLite flag is Dirty, so we cannot act on the BUY signal. The other is that Friday we had an after-hours ARM signal (q.v.), which we suggested should not count since it was after hours. We will now see if that was a good idea or not, since today would be a FIRE signal if Friday was an ARM (completing an ARM&FIRE BUY signal). So the bottom line is: no signals today, but we are going to watch the next few days and see if a BUY would have been a good idea. We may get a new rule out of this. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-22-09 The S&P fell by 1 to 887. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -209 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -67 to +68. We dropped a -887 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday -Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. After hours, the 5DMA changed from down to up, giving an ARM signal (first half of ARM&FIRE BUY signal). We dont see many ARM signals after hours, and my recollection is that we should not act on the signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1298 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 5/29 the bogey is 1292, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA (and 200DMA) of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a loss of 5.7% for CY08, and we are now in an Intermediate term uptrend, with the last BUY signal occurring 3/26/09. The Short-term result for CY08 was -42.1% (S&P was off 38% on the year). The Short-term result for CY09 so far is +11.8%. The S&P is -1.8% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-21-09 The S&P fell by 15 to 888. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1738 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +271 to -67. We dropped a +894 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 5/14/09 and 5/18/09 for loss of 0.9%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -6.9%; the S&P is down 1.7% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-20-09 The S&P fell by 5 to 904. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -35 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -28 to +271. We dropped a -1531 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-19-09 The S&P fell by 2 to 908. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +567 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -197 to -28. We dropped a -692 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-18-09 The S&P boomed ahead today by 27 to 910. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). (Buy cancelled by rule change 7/2/09.)

What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1229 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -643 to -197. We dropped a -999 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter is below the lower threshold of -5, gives a short-term BUY signal. We bought with 25% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the second buy signal in a row) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-15-09 The S&P fell 10 today to 883. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -887 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -172 to -643. We dropped a +1468 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1296 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 5/22 the bogey is 1298, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA (and 200DMA) of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line. With last Friday's close of 929, we got close to the 200DMA at 943/933, which seems to have acted as a wall. We are very far from having the 200DMA turn up, which is indicated by the bogey, aforementioned as 1298. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a loss of 5.7% for CY08, and we are now in an Intermediate term uptrend, with the last BUY signal occurring 3/26/09. The Short-term result for CY08 was -42.1% (S&P was off 38% on the year). The Short-term result for CY09 so far is +11.8%; the S&P is -2.2% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-14-09 The S&P rose 9 today to 893. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). (Buy cancelled by rule change 7/2/09.)

What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +894 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -500 to -172. We dropped a -747 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter is below the lower threshold of -5, gives a short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available  funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty) equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-13-09 The S&P fell 24 today to 884. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1531 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +0 to -500. We dropped a +969 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-12-09 The S&P fell 1 today to 908. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -692 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +157 to +0. We dropped a +93 from the average from six days ago, giving a slight negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-11-09 The S&P fell 20 today to 909. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -999 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +659 to +157. We dropped a +1513 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a notional Short-term SELL signal to match yesterday's notional (on paper only) RunLite buy signal. This would have been a losing trade, so the RunLite State stays at Dirty. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-8-09 The S&P rose 22 today to 929. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5 (very strong up). We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1468 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +404 to +659. We dropped a +190 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The S&P exceeding its previous high of 919.5 on 5/6/09 by more than 1.5 S&P points gives a RunLite BUY signal, but we must ignore it since the RunLite State is Dirty (because of the loss on the last RunLite buy signal).  See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1260 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 5/15 the bogey is 1296, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA (and 200DMA) of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line. With today's close of 929, we are getting close to the 200DMA at 943, which may act as a wall. We may hit that and come down. We are very far from having the 200DMA turn up, which is indicated by the bogey, aforementioned as 1296. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a loss of 5.7% for CY08, and we are now in an Intermediate term uptrend, with the last BUY signal occurring 3/26/09. The Short-term result for CY08 was -42.1% (S&P was off 38% on the year). The Short-term result for CY09 so far is -4.7%; the S&P is up 0.5% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-7-09 The S&P fell 12 today to 907. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -747 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +578 to +404. We dropped a +127 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 5/6/09 for loss of 1.3%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -6.1%; the S&P is up 0.5% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. This loss changes the RunLite State to Dirty. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL and the change in the RunLite State. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-6-09 The S&P rose 16 today to 920. Short-term RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph). (Buy cancelled by rule change 7/2/09.)

What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +969 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +613 to +578. We dropped a +1141 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The S&P exceeded the previous high which led to a sell signal (907 on 5/4/09) (the "bogey") by more than 1.5 S&P points, and we are in Run-5 State, so that gives a RunLite BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available  funds for equities equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-5-09 The S&P fell by 3 today to 904. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. The Short-term system is quiet/neutral now.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +93 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +555 to +613. We dropped a -194 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA gives a notional sell signal to close the notional (on paper only) RunLite buy we saw on 5/1/09. This changes the RunLite State to Clean. Market State page has been updated. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-4-09 The S&P boomed ahead by 30 today to 907. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. The Short-term system is quiet/neutral now.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1513 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +98 to +555. We dropped a -774 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. It is possible the blocked RunLite signal Friday will be profitable (had we made the trade) so the RunLite State will turn Clean, and we can then buy the next RunLite signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-1-09 The S&P rose 5 today to 878. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. The Short-term system is quiet/neutral now.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +190 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +235 to +98. We dropped a +877 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Today would have been a RunLite BUY signal because the S&P topped the previous sell bogey of 873.6, set on 4/29/09, by more than 1.5 S&P points, but it is the second such signal in a row, and the RunLite State is Dirty, so we can not act on this signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1258 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 5/8 the bogey is 1260, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA (and 200DMA) of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a loss of 5.7% for CY08, and we are now in an Intermediate term uptrend, with the last BUY signal occurring 3/26/09. The Short-term result for CY08 was -42.1% (S&P was off 38% on the year). The Short-term result for CY09 so far is -4.7%; the S&P is off 2.9% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-30-09 The S&P fell 1 today to 873. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +127 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +300 to +235. We dropped a +450 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The after hours volume figures changed significantly. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 4/29/09 for loss of 0.1%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -4.7%; the S&P is down 3.4% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. This loss re-affirms the RunLite State as Dirty. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL and the re-dating of the RunLite State. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-29-09 The S&P rose 19 today to 874. RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph). (Buy cancelled by rule change 7/2/09.)

What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1141 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +19 to +300. We dropped a -266 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The S&P exceeded the previous high which gave a sell signal (869.6 on 4/17/09) by more than 1.5 S&P points, and we are in Run-5 State, so that gives a RunLite BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available  funds for equities equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY signal. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-28-09 The S&P fell 2 today to 855. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. Since we got a Short-term SELL signal on 4/20, the Short-term system is quiet/neutral.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -194 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +306 to +19. We dropped a +1241 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-27-09 The S&P fell 9 today to 858. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. Since we got a Short-term SELL signal on 4/20, the Short-term system is quiet/neutral.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -774 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually rose from +134 to +306. We dropped a -1633 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-24-09 The S&P rose 14 today to 866. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. Since we got a Short-term SELL signal on 4/20, the Short-term system is quiet.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +877 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +31 to +134. We dropped a +362 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; this was not a Short-term BUY signal since the 5DMA was not below the lower threshold of -5 when it turned up. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of March (having software trouble with this), and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1261 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 5/1 the bogey is 1258, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a loss of 5.7% for CY08, and we are now in an Intermediate term uptrend, with the last BUY signal occurring 3/26/09. The Short-term result for CY08 was -42.1% (S&P was off 38% on the year). The Short-term result for CY09 so far is -2%; the S&P is off 4% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-23-09 The S&P rose 8 today to 852. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. Since we got a Short-term SELL signal on 4/20, the Short-term system is quiet.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +450 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +125 to +31. We dropped a +929 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-22-09 The S&P fell 7 today to 844. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. Since we got a Short-term SELL signal on 4/20, the Short-term system is quiet.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -266 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +312 to +125. We dropped a +667 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today;  I'm glad the whipsaw rule kept us from buying yesterday. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-21-09 The S&P rose 18 today to 850. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. Since we got a Short-term SELL signal yesterday, the Short-term system is quiet.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1241 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -75 to +312. We dropped a -693 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal, but it must me ignored under the Whipsaw rule, since yesterday was a Sell. See  Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-20-09 The S&P plunged 32 today to 832. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. Since we got a Short-term SELL signal today, the Short-term system is quiet.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1633 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +362 to -75. We dropped a +553 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 4/15/09 for loss of 2.3%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -4.7%; the S&P is down 8% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. See  Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-17-09 The S&P was up 4 today to 870. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. We are in a Short-term uptrend, having got a BUY signal on 4/15/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +362 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +609 to +362. We dropped a +1598 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA, while it was above the upper threshold of +2, while the S&P did not turn down, gives an ARM signal, first half of ARM&FIRE sell signal. Any down close in S&P on Monday will complete the sell signal.. See  Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a  BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of March (having software trouble with this), and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1239 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 4/23 the bogey is 1261, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. We have no positions in the Long-term System. The Intermediate Term (IT) System had a loss of 5.7% for CY08, and we are now in an Intermediate term uptrend, with the last BUY signal occurring 3/26/09. The Short-term result for CY08 was -42.1% (S&P was off 38% on the year). The Short-term result for CY09 so far is -2%; the S&P is off 4% so far for CY09. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-16-09 The S&P was up 13 today to 865. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. We are in a Short-term uptrend, having got a BUY signal yesterday.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +922 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +547 to +609. We dropped a +609 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See  Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-15-09 The S&P was up 11 today to 852. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).(Buy cancelled by rule change 7/2/09.)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +667 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +243 to +547. We dropped a -854 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The rise in S&P gives a FIRE with yesterday's ARM signal generating a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the BUY signal. See  Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-14-09 The S&P was down 17 today to 842. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in a BEAR market, so this is a rally in a bear market. We are in Market State Run-5. We are in an Intermediate Up Trend since 3/23/09. Eventually we will decline and test the major low of  S&P 677 set on 3/9/09.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(