Our Daily columns are largely for the Field Short-Term rule-based stock index trading System (Long-term System discussed next paragraph). The time horizon between trades is about one-two weeks. A Summary_Table of the performance of the System versus the S&P500 average for the last fourteen years shows that the Short-Term System BEATS the S&P by 4.1% per year on average (14.% total average annual gain)(updated 10/27/08). The Table also shows that in BEAR markets (such as 9/00 to 4/03) the System does MUCH better than the S&P. The S&P is an un-managed basket of securities weighted by market capitalization, and is a common benchmark for system performance (trademark notices bottom of this page). We have also the Hybrid System, which is: use of the Short-Term System in BULL markets and the Long-Term System (see next paragraph) in BEAR markets. This System returns about 14.1% per year average over the most recent fourteen year period with only one losing year. (Hybrid page updated 10/27/08).
Long-term investors please see our page for the Field Long-Term System. It shows a time-weighted average return of 15.5% annually over the most recent 26 year period (ending 1/31/08) versus 9.8% annually for a buy-and-hold strategy, and poorer returns for buy-and-hold for shorter periods. For additional information about the Systems please see the About page (also has a mug shot of the old man). We also now have a Financial Planning Page as a beginning approach to this important subject.
Please see near the end of this page for LINKS to other pages.
DAILIES: Dear Readers: (11/11/08). We just cant catch a break, had a fire at house, which melted electric, phone lines, etc, now running on generator. This after the hurricane in Houston and were without electricity for a week. Just now getting back up.We will be updating the site. Please bear with us as we update all the pages to current status.
11-24-08 The S&P closed up strongly by 52 to 852. The support/resistance level of 850 has now been acheived and I would expect a fall from about here. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +2894 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -618 to +129. We dropped a -841 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-21-08 The S&P closed up strongly by 48 to 800. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). The support level of 850 now becomes a resistance level, and also an attractor to which the S&P seems to be rallying. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1421 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -1128 to -618. We dropped a +1698 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The upturn in 5DMA and S&P, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. The System bought with 25% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the second buy signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1350 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 11/28 the bogey is 1360, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System returned 4.2% for the calendar year 2007. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is quiet for now, with a loss of 5.7% so far for this year. The Intermediate System showed the best performance of the three Systems for CY07 with +14.5%. The Short-term System returned -0.2% for CY2007. The Short-term result for CY08 so far is -42.1% (S&P is off 46% on the year). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Date | BULL Bogey | 200DMA Line at | |
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10/31 | 1330.6 | 1273.5 | |
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11/7 | 1395.4 | 1261.9 | |
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11/14 | 1331.3 | 1250.4 | |
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11/21 | 1350 | 1236.7 | |
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11/28 | 1360 | ||
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12/5 | 1330.6 | ||
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12/12 | |||
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12/19 | |||
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11-20-08 Up and down all day again, the S&P finally closed down hard by 54 to 753. The support level of 850 now becomes a resistance level, and also an attractor to which the S&P should rally soon.. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1963 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -396 to -1128. We dropped a +1698 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-19-08 The S&P plunged again by 53 to 807. The support level of 850 was significantly penetrated. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1579 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -350 to -396. We dropped a -1347 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-18-08 Up, down and around again; the S&P closed up 8 to 859. The support level of 850 has held again. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -130 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from -498 to -350. We dropped a -871 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-17-08 The S&P fell again by 23 to 851. We are right at the S&P support level that has held on 10/27/08 and 11/12/08. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -841 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -419 to -498. We dropped a -446 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-14-08 The S&P fell strongly again by 38 to 873. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1130 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -32 to -419. We dropped a +806 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of -100, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 11/7 and 11/13/08 for loss of 4.2%, bringing the result for the Short-term System to a loss of 42.1% for the year. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. . See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1331.3 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 11/21 the bogey is 1350, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System returned 4.2% for the calendar year 2007. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is quiet for now, with a loss of 5.7% so far for this year. The Intermediate System showed the best performance of the three Systems for CY07 with +14.5%. The Short-term System returned -0.2% for CY2007. The Short-term result for CY08 so far is -42.1% (S&P is off 41% on the year). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Date | BULL Bogey | 200DMA Line at | |
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10/24 | 1325.2 | 1293.7 | |
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10/31 | 1330.6 | 1273.5 | |
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11/7 | 1395.4 | 1261.9 | |
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11/14 | 1331.3 | 1250.4 | |
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11/21 | 1350 | ||
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11/28 | 1360 | ||
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12/5 | |||
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12/12 | |||
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11-13-08 After declining to a new recent intra-day low, the S&P gave a bottom reversal by rocketing up 59 to 911. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1698 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -647 to -32. We dropped a -1381 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA and S&P, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. The System bought with 25% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the second buy signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. This was also a double bottom; the S&P closed at 849 on 10/27/08 and at 852 on 11/12/08; this is also a possible positive puzzle piece for an Intermediate-term buy signal to come. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-12-08 The S&P plunged again by 47 to 852. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1347 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from -609 to -647. We dropped a -1154 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today [after hours change]. A possible head and shoulders bottom was destroyed by today's action; no Intermediate-term buy signal expected soon. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-11-08 The S&P fell by 20 to 899. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -871 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -154 to -609. We dropped a +983 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-10-08 The S&P fell by 12 to 919. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -446 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -154 to -238. We dropped a -24 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today (there was no sell signal since the 5DMA was not above the PLUNGE threshold of -100; however we will watch this since the threshold was determined many years ago and may need an update). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-7-08 The S&P rallied by 26 to 931. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +806 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -162 to -154. We dropped a +766 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a neutral bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a small number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Yesterday's upturn in 5DMA and S&P gives a Short-term BUY signal. The System bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. We are watching the S&P chart pattern, and seeing a possible head and shoulders bottom formed. The next few days should confirm or deny this, which would lend to an Intermediate Term System buy signal. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Short-sellers paragraph: We have to close out the short position on the BUY signal, for an about 2.5% gain. We do not record results of short trades on the site.
Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1395.4 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 11/14 the bogey is 1331.3, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System returned 4.2% for the calendar year 2007. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is quiet for now, with a loss of 5.7% so far for this year. The Intermediate System showed the best performance of the three Systems for CY07 with +14.5%. The Short-term System returned -0.2% for CY2007. The Short-term result for CY08 so far is -40.7% (S&P is off 37% on the year). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Date | BULL Bogey | 200DMA Line at | |
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10/17 | 1401 | 1295.3 | |
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10/24 | 1325.2 | 1293.7 | |
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10/31 | 1330.6 | 1273.5 | |
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11/7 | 1395.4 | 1261.9 | |
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11/14 | 1331.3 | ||
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11/21 | 1350 | ||
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11/28 | |||
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12/5 | |||
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11-6-08 The S&P plunged again, falling by 48 to 905. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1381 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +298 to -162. We dropped a +916 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Short-sellers paragraph: Yesterday's short position is looking good.
11-5-08 The S&P proved it hasnt forgotten how to plunge; it fell by 53 to 953. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -3435 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +548 to +298. We dropped a +99 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of -100, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 10/23 and 10/28/08 for gain of 2.8%, bringing the result for the Short-term System to a loss of 38% for the year. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Short-sellers paragraph: Today's sell signal in a BEAR market allows us to sell short. We sold short a significant position of QQQQ. Due to above-average risk, short-selling is not recommended for the average investor.
11-4-08 The S&P ended advancing 40 to 1006. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +983 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +665 to +548. We dropped a +1568 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in 5DMA while the S&P did not decline, gives an ARM (first half of ARM&FIRE SELL signal). Any decline in S&P tomorrow will complete the SELL signal. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
11-3-08 Up, down, around, going mostly nowhere, the S&P ended down 3 to 966. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -24 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +465 to +665. We dropped a -1023 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms..
10-31-08 The S&P ended up 15 to 969. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +766 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +86 to +465. We dropped a -1130 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1330.6 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 11/7 the bogey is 1395.4, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System returned 4.2% for the calendar year 2007. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is quiet for now, with a loss of 5.7% so far for this year. The Intermediate System showed the best performance of the three Systems for CY07 with +14.5%. The Short-term System returned -0.2% for CY2007. The Short-term result for CY08 so far is -40.7% (S&P is off 34% on the year). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Date | BULL Bogey | 200DMA Line at | |
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10/10 | 1411.6 | 1306.8 | |
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10/17 | 1401 | 1295.3 | |
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10/24 | 1325.2 | 1293.7 | |
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10/31 | 1330.6 | 1273.5 | |
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11/7 | 1395.4 | ||
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11/14 | 1331.3 | ||
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11/21 | |||
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11/28 | |||
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10-30-08 The S&P ended up 24 to 954. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +916 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -134 to +86. We dropped a -182 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-29-08 The S&P ended down 10 to 930. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +99 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -444 to -134. We dropped a -1451 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-28-08 The S&P surged ahead, ending up 92 to 941. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1568 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -896 to -444. We dropped a -691 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today's upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. The System bought with 25% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is 2nd BUY signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. (N.B., the reader is not obliged to follow BUY signals; especially when market is behaving so badly, and losses have lately been severe for the Short-term System). Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-27-08 The S&P continued its decline, but today was more orderly, down 28 to 849, the lowest close in nearly 6 yr. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1023 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -508 to -896. We dropped a +913 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is oversold. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-24-08 The S&P was down 31 to 877. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1130 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -301 to -508. We dropped a -95 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1325.2 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/31 the bogey is 1330.6, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System returned 4.2% for the calendar year 2007. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is quiet for now, with a loss of 5.7% so far for this year. The Intermediate System showed the best performance of the three Systems for CY07 with +14.5%. The Short-term System returned -0.2% for CY2007. The Short-term result for CY08 so far is -40.7% (S&P is off 40.3% on the year). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Date | LL Bogey | 200DMA Line at | |
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10/10 | 1411.6 | 1306.8 | |
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10/17 | 1401 | 1293.7 | |
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10/24 | 1325.2 | 1282.5 | |
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10/31 | 1330.6 |
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11/7 | 1395.4 | ||
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11/14 |
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11/21 | |||
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11/28 | |||
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10-23-08 The S&P was up 11 to 908. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -182 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -36 to -301. We dropped a +1146 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Yesterday's after hours upturn in 5DMA gave an ARM signal (first half of an ARM&FIRE BUY signal). Today's upturn in S&P, despite the downturn in 5DMA, completes the ARM&FIRE BUY signal. The System bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Short-sellers paragraph. Short sales put on 10/21 were covered on the BUY signal for a nice profit.
10-22-08 The S&P plunged another 58 to 897. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1451 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from -64 to -36. We dropped a -1592 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Short-sellers paragraph. Yesterday's shorts looking good.
10-21-08 The S&P fell by 30 to 955. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -691 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +40 to -64. We dropped a -170 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of -100, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 9/30, 10/13 and 10/16/08 for loss of 27.4%, bringing the result for the Short-term System to a loss of 40.7% for the year. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Short-sellers paragraph. We can sell this signal short, which we do with a modest position in SPY and QQQQ. Short selling is risky and not recommended for the average investor. We also do not list detailed results of the short sales in the system records.
10-20-08 The S&P boomed ahead by 45 to 985. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +913 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +185 to +40. We dropped a +1635 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-17-08 The S&P closed down 6 to 941. For our announcement on the current BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -95 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -0.5 to +185. We dropped a -1021 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1401. (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/24 the bogey is 1325.2, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System returned 4.2% for the calendar year 2007. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is quiet for now, with a loss of 5.7% so far for this year. The Intermediate System showed the best performance of the three Systems for CY07 with +14.5%. The Short-term System returned -0.2% for CY2007. The Short-term result for CY08 so far is -13.3% (S&P is off 36% on the year). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Date | BULL Bogey | 200DMA Line at | |
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9/26 | 1484.5 | 1329.4 | |
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10/3 | 1478.5 | 1319.7 | |
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10/10 | 1411.6 | 1306.8 | |
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10/17 | 1401 | 1295.3 | |
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10/24 | 1325.2 | ||
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10/31 | 1330.6 | ||
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11/7 | |||
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11/14 | |||
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10-16-08 A bottom reversal; the S&P fell a good bit more, then rose strongly to close up 39 to 948. Short-term BUY signal today; Market State drops to PLUNGE (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1146 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -599 to -0.5. We dropped a -1849 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA and S&P, while 5DMA was below lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 12% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this was the third BUY signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. Three BUY signals in a row in a BEAR Market gives a PLUNGE Market State, wherein we can sell on the Special SELL signal, which is SELL after the 5DMA rises above -100. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY and the State change. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-15-08 . The S&P plunged anew by 90 to 908. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1592 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -421 to -599. We dropped a -700 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-14-08 . The S&P fell modestly by 5 to 998. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -170 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -703 to -421. We dropped a -1577 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-13-08 . The S&P surged ahead by 106! to 1005. Short term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1635 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -1370 to -703. We dropped a -1702 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The upturn in 5DMA and S&P, while 5DMA was below lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 25% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this was second BUY signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-10-08 The S&P was down by 11 to 899. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1021 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -1274 to -1370. We dropped a -542 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1411.6 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/10 the bogey is 1401., which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System returned 4.2% for the calendar year 2007. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is quiet for now, with a loss of 5.7% so far for this year. The Intermediate System showed the best performance of the three Systems for the CY with +14.5%. The Short-term System returned -0.2% for CY2007. The Short-term result for the CY so far is -13.3% (S&P is off 39% on the year). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Date | BULL Bogey | 200DMA Line at | |
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9/19 | 1468 | 1335.9 | |
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9/26 | 1484.5 | 1329.4 | |
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10/3 | 1478.5 | 1319.7 | |
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10/10 | 1411.6 | 1306.8 | |
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10/17 | 1401 | ||
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10/24 | 1325.2 | ||
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10/31 | |||
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11/7 | |||
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10-9-08 Wow, another plunge, this is looking serious. Hope all Long-term investors sold out on 1/31/08, as we recommended. The S&P was down by 75 to 910, back to 2003 levels. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1849 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -1140 to -1274. We dropped a -1181 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Thursday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-8-08 The S&P declined a modest 11 to 985. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -700 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -994 to -1140. We dropped a +34 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The upturn in 5DMA, while it was below the lower threshold of -28, while the S&P did not turn up, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM&FIRE Short-term BUY signal). Any upturn tomorrow in S&P will complete the BUY signal. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-7-08 The S&P suffered another plunge of 61 to 996. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1577 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -421 to -994. We dropped a +1287 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-6-08 The S&P plunged 42 to 1099. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1702 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from -456 to -421. We dropped a -1878 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-3-08 The S&P fell 15 to 1099. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -542 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -395 to -456. We dropped a -239 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a BEAR market. The situation may be seen in the table below. Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1478.5 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/10 the bogey is 1411.6, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System returned 4.2% for the calendar year 2007. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is quiet for now, with a loss of 5.7% so far for this year. The Intermediate System showed the best performance of the three Systems for the CY with +14.5%. The Short-term System returned -0.2% for CY2007. The Short-term result for the CY so far is -13.3% (S&P is off 25% on the year). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Date | BULL Bogey | 200DMA Line at | |
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9/12 | 1504.7 | 1341.2 | |
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9/19 | 1468 | 1335.9 | |
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9/26 | 1484.5 | 1329.4 | |
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10/3 | 1478.5 | 1319.7 | |
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10/10 | 1411.6 | ||
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10/17 | 1401 | ||
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10/24 | |||
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10/31 | |||
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10-2-08 The S&P fell 47 to 1114. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1181 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -61 to -395. We dropped a +491 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
10-1-08 The S&P fell 4 to 1161. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +34 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -113 to -61. We dropped a -226 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
9-30-08 A bit of recovery from yesterday. The S&P rose 58 to 1165. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1287 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -492 to -113. We dropped a -608 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA and S&P, while 5DMA was below lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
9-29-08 The S&P plunged with possibly its largest fall ever, down 105 to 1109. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1878 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -284 to -492. We dropped a -836 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
9-26-08 The S&P made a small gain, up 4 to 1213. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -239 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +190 to -284. We dropped a +2130 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a BEAR market. The situation may be seen on Long-term Investor's page [having software trouble with this, sorry], Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows a decrease in the 40WMA over last week. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-Term System page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from the date of interest (such as today). The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1484.5 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/3 the bogey is 1478.5, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System returned 4.2% for the calendar year 2007. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is quiet for now, with a loss of 5.7% so far for this year. The Intermediate System showed the best performance of the three Systems for the CY with +14.5%. The Short-term System returned -0.2% for CY2007. The Short-term gain for the CY so far is -3.2%. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Date | BULL Bogey | 200DMA Line at | |
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9/5 | 1481.1 | 1347.6 | |
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9/12 | 1504.7 | 1341.2 | |
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9/19 | 1468 | 1335.9 | |
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9/26 | 1484.5 | 1329.4 | |
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10/3 | 1478.5 | ||
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10/10 | 1411.6 | ||
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10/17 | |||
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10/24 | |||
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9-11-08 The S&P rose another 17 to 1249. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1426 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -326 to +179. We dropped a -1099 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
9-10-08 The S&P rose 8 to 1232. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +109 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -352 to -326. We dropped a -20 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA and S&P, while 5DMA was below lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal (second in a row). We bought with 25% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is 2nd BUY signal), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
9-9-08 The S&P lost all it gained yesterday and then some, falling 43 to 1225. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1349 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -58 to -352. We dropped a +122 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The bogey of 1242 S&P, set 9/5/08, was violated, but we do not sell out yesterday's purchases on such an occurrence. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
9-8-08 The S&P boomed ahead by 26 to 1268. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +472 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -243 to -58. We dropped a +454 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA and S&P, while 5DMA was below lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
9-5-08 The S&P rose 6 to 1242. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +237 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -169 to -243. We dropped a +604 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a BEAR market. The situation may be seen on Long-term Investor's page [having software trouble with this, sorry], Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows a decrease in the 40WMA over last week. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-Term System page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from the date of interest (such as today). The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1481.1 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 9/12 the bogey is 1504.7, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System returned 4.2% for the calendar year 2007. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is quiet for now, with a loss of 5.7% so far for this year. The Intermediate System showed the best performance of the three Systems for the CY with +14.5%. The Short-term System returned -0.2% for CY2007. The Short-term gain for the CY so far is -3.2%. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Date | BULL Bogey | 200DMA Line at | |
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8/15 | 1453.7 | 1361.6 | |
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8/22 | 1458.7 | 1357.5 | |
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8/29 | 1440.7 | 1353.5 | |
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9/5 | 1481.1 | 1347.6 | |
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9/12 | 1504.7 | ||
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9/19 | 1468 | ||
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9/26 | |||
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10/3 | |||
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9-4-08 The S&P plunged 38 to 1237. Our Short-term SELL signal on 8/29 is looking good. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1099 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +144 to -169. We dropped a +466 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today's simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal, but it is sterile since we have no positions on. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
9-3-08 The S&P fell 3 to 1275. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -20 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +192 to +144. We dropped a +222 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today's simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal, but it is sterile since we have no positions on. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
9-2-08 The S&P fell 5 to 1278. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +122 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +35 to +192. We dropped a -662 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
8-29-08 The S&P fell 18 to 1283. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -454 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +209 to +35. We dropped a +416 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 8/20/08 for gain of 0.65%, bringing the result for the Short-term System to a loss of -3.2% for the year. (The S&P is down -12.6% for the year.) Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a BEAR market. The situation may be seen on Long-term Investor's page [having software trouble with this, sorry], Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows a decrease in the 40WMA over last week. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-Term System page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from the date of interest (such as today). The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1440.7 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 9/5 the bogey is 1481.1, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System returned 4.2% for the calendar year 2007. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is quiet for now, with a loss of 5.7% so far for this year. The Intermediate System showed the best performance of the three Systems for the CY with +14.5%. The Short-term System returned -0.2% for CY2007. The Short-term gain for the CY so far is -3.2%. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Date | BULL Bogey | 200DMA Line at | |
8/8 | 1509.7 | 1365.5 | |
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8/15 | 1453.7 | 1361.6 | |
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8/22 | 1458.7 | 1357.5 | |
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8/29 | 1440.7 | 1353.5 | |
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9/5 | 1481.1 | ||
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9/12 | 1504.7 | ||
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9/19 | |||
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9/26 | |||
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8-28-08 The S&P gained 19 to 1301. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +604 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +94 to +209. We dropped a +27 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
8-27-08 The S&P gained 10 to 1282. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +466 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +44 to +94. We dropped a +219 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
8-26-08 The S&P gained 5 to 1272. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -222 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -98 to +44. We dropped a -491 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
8-25-08 The S&P fell by 25 to 1267. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -662 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -97 to -98. We dropped a -658 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
8-22-08 The S&P rose by 15 to 1292. For our announcement on the new BEAR Market, see 1/31/08 column. See our comments on the news media's "20% BEAR market call" in our 6/27/08 column.
The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +416 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -119 to -97. We dropped a +309 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues down, and the S&P is below the 200DMA line, indicating a BEAR market. The situation may be seen on Long-term Investor's page [having software trouble with this, sorry], Table 4, which is updated weekly. The entry in Table 4 for today's date shows a decrease in the 40WMA over last week. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA), and the S&P is below that 9MMA average line, again indicating a BEAR market. In our BULL Bogey table below are the values (based on the 40WMA) that would indicate resumption of a BULL market; they change week-by-week. These values may also be seen on Long-Term System page, Table 4, by counting back 41 weeks from the date of interest (such as today). The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1458.7 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA line continues down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 8/29 the bogey is 1440.7, which we are considerably below right now. In order for a BULL market to be declared, the 9MMA of the S&P would have to turn up and the S&P would need to be above that 9MMA line (this could take many months to occur). The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 11/5/04 (we have now changed from 11/4/05, using the 50% two step rules) and ended 1/31/08 was +19.6% (we sold 50% on 1/4/08 and sold the other 50% on 1/31/08), using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System returned 4.2% for the calendar year 2007. The Intermediate Term (IT) System is quiet for now, with a loss of 5.7% so far for this year. The Intermediate System showed the best performance of the three Systems for the CY with +14.5%. The Short-term System returned -0.2% for CY2007. The Short-term gain for the CY so far is -3.9%. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.
Date | BULL Bogey | 200DMA Line at | |
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8/1 | 1535.3 | 1370.9 | |
8/8 | 1509.7 | 1365.5 | |
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8/15 | 1453.7 | 1361.6 | |
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8/22 | 1458.7 | 1357.5 | |
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8/29 | 1440.7 | ||
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9/5 | 1481.1 | ||
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9/12 | |||
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9/19 | |||
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