Stockmarketscience covers Short, Intermediate and Long Term investments in the US stock market. Roughly, Short-term is a couple weeks, Intermediate-term (IT) is a couple months, and Long-term covers periods of years. Our Daily columns are largely for the Field Short-Term rule-based stock index trading System (Long-term and IT Systems discussed next paragraph). The time horizon between trades is about one-two weeks. A Summary_Table of the performance of the System versus the S&P500 average for the last sixteen years shows that the Short-Term System BEATS the S&P by 3.7% per year on average (11.5% total average annual gain). The Table also shows that in BEAR markets (such as 9/00 to 4/03) the System does MUCH better than the S&P. The S&P is an un-managed basket of securities weighted by market capitalization, and is a common benchmark for system performance (trademark notices bottom of this page). We have also the Hybrid System, which is: use of the Short-Term System in BULL markets and the Long-Term System (see next paragraph) in BEAR markets. This System returns about 13.0% per year average over the most recent sixteen year period with only three losing years. (Hybrid page updated 12/31/09).

Long-term and Intermediate-term investments are discussed every Friday in these columns. Also please see our page for the Field Long-Term System. It shows a time-weighted average return of 15.5% annually over the most recent 26 year period (ending 1/31/08-end of last bull market) versus 9.8% annually for a buy-and-hold strategy, and poorer returns for buy-and-hold for shorter periods. For additional information about the Systems please see the About page (also has a mug shot of the old man). We also now have a Financial Planning Page as a beginning approach to this important subject.

Please see near the end of this page for LINKS to other pages.

DAILIES: Dear Readers:

2-7-12 The S&P rose by 3 to 1347. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the 200 DMA bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments. The Long term bogey for this Friday is at 1340, so we may have a new BULL market if these levels can carry to Friday. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1272, the IT bogey is at 1159. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/1/12. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

.The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +337 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from +268 to +330. We dropped a +30 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-6-12 The S&P fell by 1 to 1344. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the 200 DMA bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments. The Long term bogey for this Friday is at 1340, so we may have a new BULL market if these levels can carry to Friday. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1268, the IT bogey is at 1162. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/1/12. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

.The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -48 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from +215 to +268. We dropped a -308 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-3-12 The S&P moved smartly ahead by 19 to 1345. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the 200 DMA bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments. The Long term bogey is at 1364, so we do not have a new BULL market yet. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1265, the IT bogey is at 1188. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/1/12. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

.The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +648 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from +88 to +215. We dropped a +7 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA  turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of January, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1265.4.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1364 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, although we are above the  the 40 WMA of 1254. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 2/10/12 the bogey is 1340, which we are now above; if the market holds this level by next Friday, we will have a new BULL market. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 was -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1247 for the coming week. Since we are now above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. We got a 50% IT buy signal  on 11/30/11 and the 100% signal 12/14/11. The change in the IT System since then is +9.4%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 0%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P result was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result for CY11 was +2.1%; the Short-tem50 reasult was -2.3%. The S&P result for CY11 was +0%. The booked Short-term  System result for CY12 is +0% (no trades). The S&P result to date for CY12 is +5%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.          

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2-2-12 The S&P rose by 1 to 1326. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the 200 DMA bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1262, the IT bogey is at 1193. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/1/12. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +102 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from +13 to +88. We dropped a -274 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a neutral bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a small number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-1-12 The S&P rose by 11 to 1324. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the 200 DMA bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1260, the IT bogey is at 1216. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/1/12. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +610 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   rose from -16 to +13. We dropped a +467 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA while the 5DMA was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY  signal. The Short-term System and the Short50 System  will BUY with 50% of short-term funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. The BUY signal is entered on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-31-12 The S&P fell by 1 to 1312.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the 200 DMA bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1258, the IT bogey is at 1216. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +30 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   fell [after hours] from -15 to -16. We dropped a +34 from the average from six days ago, giving a slight negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-30-12 The S&P fell by 3 to 1313.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the 200 DMA bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1256, the IT bogey is at 1237. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -308 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   fell from +67 to -15. We dropped a +103 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-27-12 The S&P fell by 2 to 1316.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the 200 DMA bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1255, the IT bogey is at 1258. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +7 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   fell [after hours] from +88 to +67. We dropped a +110 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA  turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1271.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1337 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, although we are above the  the 40 WMA of 1255. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 2/3/12 the bogey is 13/64, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 was -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1188 for the coming week. Since we are now above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. We got a 50% IT buy signal  on 11/30/11 and the 100% signal 12/14/11. The change in the IT System since then is +7.1%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 0%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P result was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result for CY11 was +2.1%; the Short-tem50 reasult was -2.3%. The S&P result for CY11 was +0%. The booked Short-term  System result for CY12 is +0% (no trades). The S&P result to date for CY12 is +2.8%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.          

1-26-12 The S&P fell by 8 to 1318.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the 200 DMA bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments. Looking ahead to Friday's value of the 200DMA bogey, we see it is nearby at 1337.4. If this value is exceeded on Friday we will be back to 50% BULL market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1254, the IT bogey is at 1252. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -274 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   fell from +192 to +88. We dropped a +245 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

New Rule Watch: See New Rule under consideration here. We would have had a SELL signal today (S&P and 5DMA both turning down) if we had observed the RunLite BUY signals of 1/18/12 and 1/25/12. We would have made a small 0.3% gain. So now we have three instances of RunLite BUYs in a BEAR market with a rising 50DMA; we can conclude this is probably not a great rule, and we should maintain the existing rule of ignoring RunLite BUY signals in a BEAR market.

1-25-12  The S&P rose by 11 to 1326.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the 200 DMA bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments. Looking ahead to Friday's value of the 200DMA bogey, we see it is nearby at 1337.4. If this value is exceeded on Friday we will be back to 50% BULL market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1253, the IT bogey is at 1264. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was  +467(million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   fell [after hours] from +212 to +192. We dropped a +568 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We have another instance of RunLite  BUY today, so we are still watching the new rule (see following). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

New Rule Watch: See New Rule under consideration here. We are still watching this third instance of the possible new rule application.

1-24-12 The S&P fell by 1 to 1315.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1251, the IT bogey is at 1240. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +34 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   fell [after hours] from +227 to +212. We dropped a +110 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

New Rule Watch: See New Rule under consideration here. We are still watching this second instance of the possible new rule application.

1-23-12 The S&P again rose by 1 to 1316.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1249, the IT bogey is at 1229. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +103 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   rose from +128 to +227. We dropped a -391 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

New Rule Watch: See New Rule under consideration here. We are still watching this second instance of the possible new rule application.

1-20-12 The S&P rose by 1 to 1315.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1248, the IT bogey is at 1276. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +110 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   fell [after hours] from +138 to +128. We dropped a +156 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

New Rule Watch: See New Rule under consideration here. We are still watching this second instance of the possible new rule application.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA  turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1271.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1320 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, although we are above the  the 40 WMA of 1255. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 1/27 the bogey is 1337, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 was -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1258 for the coming week. Since we are now above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. We got a 50% IT buy signal  on 11/30/11 and the 100% signal 12/14/11. The change in the IT System since then is +6.6%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 0%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P result was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result for CY11 was +2.1%; the Short-tem50 result was -2.3%. The S&P result for CY11 was +0%. The booked Short-term  System result for CY12 is +0% (no trades). The S&P result to date for CY12 is +4.6%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.          

1-19-12 The S&P rose by 6 to 1315.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1247, the IT bogey is at 1261. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +245 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   rose from +124 to +138. We dropped a +179 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

New Rule Watch: See New Rule under consideration here. We are still watching this second instance of the possible new rule application.

1-18-12 The S&P rose by 14 to 1308.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1246, the IT bogey is at 1253. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +568 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   rose from +108 to +124. We dropped a +484 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today (see next paragraph).  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

New Rule Watch: See New Rule under consideration here. We are back to this possible new rule again. Today's advance above the previous minor high of 1295.4 on 1/12/12 by more than 1.5 points, give a RunLite buy signal, which we ignore in a BEAR market by the existing rule. Since the 50DMA is advancing, we might have a buy signal we should acknowledge under the proposed rule. So this is data point number two on this possible rule; instance number one failed.

1-17-12 The S&P rose by 4 to 1293.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1245, the IT bogey is at 1261. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +110 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   fell [after hours] from +130 to +108. We dropped a +224 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-13-12 The S&P fell by 6 to 1289.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1244, the IT bogey is at 1238. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -391 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  fell from +137 to +130. We dropped a -356 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

New Rule Watch: See New Rule under consideration here. We have our answer. The rule didnt work this time; today would have been a sell signal after the notional buy on 1/10/12 (for a 0.2% loss), and we would have lost money on the trade. The old rule of not buying RunLite buy signals in a BEAR market still stands. We will still watch future occurrances of this pattern to collect statistics on when or if the rule (to act on RunLite buy signals in a BEAR market if the 50DMA is advancing) is working.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA  turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1271.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1328 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, although we are above the  the 40 WMA of 1255. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 1/20 the bogey is 1320, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 was -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1276 for the coming week. Since we are now above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. We got a 50% IT buy signal  on 11/30/11 and the 100% signal 12/14/11. The change in the IT System since then is +4.9%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 0%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P result was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result for CY11 was +2.1%; the Short-tem50 result was -2.3%. The S&P result for CY11 was +0%. The booked Short-term  System result for CY12 is +0% (no trades). The S&P result to date for CY12 is +2.5%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.          

1-12-12 The S&P crept up again by 3 to 1295.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1243, the IT bogey is at 1218. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +179 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +99 to +132. We dropped a +17 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

New Rule Watch: See New Rule under consideration here. We are still watching to see the result.

1-10-12 The S&P was up 11 to 1292. See next paragraph regarrding a buy signal today. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1242, the IT bogey is at 1285. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues UP. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +484 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +106 to +99. We dropped a +518 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. In a BULL market this would be a RunLite BUY signal, since the previous minor high of 1281.1 on 1/5/12 was exceeded by more than 1.5 points. But we have a rule, which today will be under review, that we ignore RunLite BUY signals in a BEAR market. The new rule under consideration is that RunLite BUY signals will be recognized in a BEAR market if the 50DMA is rising. So we are not buying this signal but we will follow the result of a paper buy and see if it was profitable. If so, we will institute the new rule. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-9-12 The S&P was up 3 to 1281.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1242, the IT bogey is at 1285. We are above the 50DMA but below the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA turns DOWN. If the S&P declines through the 50DMA at 1242, we will have an IT SELL signal. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +224 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +37 to +106. We dropped a -119 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-6-12 The S&P was down 3 to 1278.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1241, the IT bogey is at 1242. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -356 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +197 to +37. We dropped a +441 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA  turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1271.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1332 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, although we are above the  the 40 WMA of 1256. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 1/13 the bogey is 1328, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 was -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1238 for the coming week. Since we are now above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. We got a 50% IT buy signal  on 11/30/11 and the 100% signal 12/14/11. The change in the IT System since then is +4.%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 0%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is +2.1%; the Short-term50 result is -2.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is +1.6%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.      

1-5-12 The S&P was up 4 to 1281.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1240, the IT bogey is at 1229. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +127 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +74 to +197. We dropped a -487 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-4-12 The S&P was up a fraction to 1277.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1239, the IT bogey is at 1254. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +17 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +57 to +74. We dropped a -67 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

1-3-12 The S&P moved smartly ahead in the new year. It was up 19 to 1277. Market State advances to Run-5 (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1239, the IT bogey is at 1238. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 1/3/12). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +518 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +6 to +57. We dropped a +263 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We have a rule that if State changes to Run-5 and a RunLite BUY signal occur on same day, we ignore the RunLite BUY signal (which we got today since the previous minor high was exceeded). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers Paragraph. We had to cover the recent short sales for a loss.

12-30-11 The S&P closed down 5 to 1257.6; in a statistical freak, that was exactly th518e S&P value on 12/31/10!!!  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1237, the IT bogey is at 1215. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 12/19/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -119 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +121 to +6. We dropped a +457 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers Paragraph. We wont worry about Wednesday's short sales unless the S&P close exceeds the previous minor high (1265.4) by more than 1.5 points. We increased our short positions by another 20%.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month/End-of-Year Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of December, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1271.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1314 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are sitting right on  the 40 WMA of 1258. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 1/6 the bogey is 1332, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 was -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1242 for the coming week. Since we are now above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. We got a 50% IT buy signal  on 11/30/11 and the 100% signal 12/14/11. The change in the IT System since then is +2.3%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 0%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is +2.1%; the Short-term50 result is -2.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is +0.0%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.      

12-29-11 The S&P closed up 13 to 1263.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1236, the IT bogey is at 1210. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 12/19/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +441 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of up to down volume, usually indicating short-term market  extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +99 to +121. We dropped a +330 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers Paragraph. We wont worry about yesterday's short sales unless the S&P close exceeds the previous minor high (1265.4) by more than 1.5 points. We increased our short positions by about 20%.

12-28-11 The S&P closed down 16 to 1250. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1236, the IT bogey is at 1225. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 12/19/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -487 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating short-term market  extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +376 to +99. We dropped a +895 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The downturn in S&P and 5DMA while the 5DMA was above +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 12/15/11 and 12/20/11  for a gain of  +1.6%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +2.1%; the S&P is down -0.6% for the CY. The Short-term50 System is -2.3% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Short-term SELL signal is noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers Paragraph. Since we are in Oscillatory State, we can sell short this SELL signal. We sold a modest position of calls on stocks that have seen a recent 12 month low. We do not recommenc short selling to the average reader, since the losses are unliimited if it goes the wrong way and nothing is done.

12-27-11 The S&P closed up a fraction to 1265.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1235, the IT bogey is at 1201. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 12/19/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/20/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -67 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +264 to +376. We dropped a -627 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-23-11 The S&P advanced another 12 to 1265. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1234, the IT bogey is at 1225. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 12/19/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/20/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +263 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +324 to +264. We dropped a +567 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of November, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1278.7.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1279 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1259. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 12/30 the bogey is 1314, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 was -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1238 for the coming week. Since we are now above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. We got a 50% IT buy signal  on 11/30/11 and the 100% signal 12/14/11. The change in the IT System since then is +2.9%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 0%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is +1.1%; the Short-term50 result is -3.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is +0.6%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.      

12-22-11 The S&P advanced another 10 to 1254. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1233, the IT bogey is at 1204. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 12/19/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/20/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +457 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +281 to +324. We dropped a +242 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-21-11 The S&P rose by 2 to 1244. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1232, the IT bogey is at 1207. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 12/19/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/20/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +330 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +109 to +281. We dropped a -531 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-20-11  The S&P rocketed ahead today by 36 to 1241. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1231, the IT bogey is at 1196. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 12/19/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/20/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +895 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of up to down volume, usually indicating short-term market  extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -187 to +109. We dropped a -588 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA while the 5DMA was below -28 gives a Short-term BUY  signal. The Short-term System and the Short50 System  will BUY with 25% of short-term funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the second BUY signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. The BUY signal is entered on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-19-11  The S&P fell today by 14 to 1205. Market State drops from Run-5 to Oscillatory (see next paragraph).What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1230, the IT bogey is at 1195. We are below the 50DMA but above the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 12/19/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/15/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -627 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating short-term market  extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -186 to -187. We dropped a -621 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The breaking of the bogey level (1211.8 on 12/14/11) preceding the last BUY signal by more than 1.5 S&P points, changes the Market State to Oscillatory. This changes the 5DMA levels at which buy and sell signals are given and also we may now sell short on a SELL signal. The State change has been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-16-11  The S&P gained 4 today to 1219.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1229, the IT bogey is at 1155. We are below the 50DMA but above the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend has continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/15/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +567 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -252 to -186. We dropped a +238 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of November, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1278.7.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1304 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1259. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 12/23 the bogey is 1279, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 was -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1225 for the coming week. Since we are now above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. We got a 50% IT buy signal  on 11/30/11 and the 100% signal 12/14/11. The change in the IT System since then is -0.8%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 0%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is +0.5%; the Short-term50 result is -3.8%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -3.1%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

12-15-11  The S&P gained 4 today to 1216. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1226, the IT bogey is at 1144. We are below the 50DMA but above the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend has continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 12/15/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +242 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -475 to -252. We dropped a -873 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior .The upturn in S&P and 5DMA while the 5DMA was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY  signal. The Short-term System and the Short50 System  will BUY with 50% of short-term funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. The BUY signal is entered on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-14-11  The S&P fell today by 14 to 1212.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1226, the IT bogey is at 1144. We are below the 50DMA but above the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. Since the IT trend has continued for 2 weeks, we bought the other 50% on 12/14/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/8/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -531 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -334 to -475. We dropped a +172 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The IT 100% purchase has been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-13-11  The S&P fell today by 11 to 1226.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1224, the IT bogey is at 1124. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. If the IT trend persists for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/8/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -588 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -218 to -334. We dropped a -4 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-12-11  The S&P fell today by 19 to 1236. I'm glad for our whipsw rule that kept us from buying last Friday (see that column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1222, the IT bogey is at 1099. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. If the IT trend persists for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/8/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -621 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -81 to -218. We dropped a +64 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-9-11  The S&P moved smartly higher today by 21 to 1255.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1220, the IT bogey is at 1131. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. If the IT trend persists for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/8/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +236 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -101 to -81. We dropped a +138 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; with the upturn in S&P and 5DMA, we had a buy signal, but it is ignored because yesterday was a sell signal, so today is a whipsaw. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of November, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1278.7.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1321 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1261. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 12/16 the bogey is 1304, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 was -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1155 for the coming week. Since we are above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. We got a 50% IT buy signal  on 11/30/11. The change in the IT System since then is -0.2%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 0%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is +0.5%; the Short-term50 result is -3.8%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -0.1%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

12-8-11  The S&P closed down today by 27 to 1234. Short-term SELL signal (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1218 the IT bogey is at 1160. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. If the IT trend persists for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 12/8/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -873 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up  volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +46 to -101. We dropped a -139 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA while the 5DMA was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 11/28/11  for a gain of  +1.8%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +0.5%; the S&P is down -1.8% for the CY. The Short-term50 System is -3.8% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Short-term SELL signal is noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-7-11  The S&P closed up today by 3 to 1261. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1216 the IT bogey is at 1151. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. If the IT trend persists for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/28/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +172 (million shares). (Our source for updated volume figures is temporarily down.)  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +319 to +46. We dropped a +1534 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The decline in 5DMA, while the S&P did not decline, gives an ARM signal, first half of ARM&FIRE SELL signal. Any downturn tomorrow in S&P will complete the SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-6-11  The S&P closed up today by 1 to 1258. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1215; the IT bogey is at 1175. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. If the IT trend persists for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/28/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining.  We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -4 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from +318 to +319. We dropped a -8 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The decline in 5DMA, while the S&P did not decline, gives an ARM signal, first half of ARM&FIRE SELL signal. Any downturn tomorrow in S&P will complete the SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-5-11 After being up strongly early, the S&P closed up today by 13 to 1257. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1213; the IT bogey is at 1163. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. If the IT trend persists for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/28/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining.  We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +64 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [afer hours]  from +487 to +318. We dropped a +909 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a neutral bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a small  number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

12-2-11 The S&P fell today by a fraction to 1244. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1210; the IT bogey is at 1136. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. If the IT trend persists for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/28/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining.  We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +138 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +443 to +487. We dropped a -79 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of November, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1278.7.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1320 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1264. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 12/9 the bogey is 1321, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 was -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1131 for the coming week. Since we are above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. We got a 50% IT buy signal  on 11/30/11. The change in the IT System since then is -0.2%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 0%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -1.2%; the Short-term50 result is -3.8%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -1.1%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

12-1-11 The S&P fell today by 2 to 1245. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1208; the IT bogey is at 1130. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11. If the IT trend persists for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/28/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining.  We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -139 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +310 to +443. We dropped a -807 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-30-11 The S&P boomed ahead again today by 52 to 1247. IT 50% BUY signal today. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1206; the IT bogey is at 1168. We are above the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA turns up. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 11/30/11, so we can buy SPY, QQQ and IWM with 50% of available funds for IT. If the IT trend persists for 2 weeks we buy the other 50%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/28/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining.  We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1598 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of  up to down  volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -77 to +310. We dropped a -399 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The IT BUY is noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-29-11 The S&P was ahead again today by 3 to 1195. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1206; the IT bogey is at 1202. We are below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 10/20/11. We bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. The IT SELL signal was 11/22/11. The result of the IT round trip was -5%, bringing the booked IT result since 2/18/10 to 0%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/28/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining.  We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -8 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -236 to -77. We dropped a -804 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-28-11 The S&P rocketed ahead today by 34 to 1193. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1206; the IT bogey is at 1216. We are below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 10/20/11. We bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. The IT SELL signal was 11/22/11. The result of the IT round trip was -5%, bringing the booked IT result since 2/18/10 to 0%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/28/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining.  We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +909 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of  up to down  volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -405 to -236. We dropped a +63 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA while the 5DMA was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY  signal. The Short-term System (but not the Short50 System because the 50DMA is declining) will BUY with 50% of short-term funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. The BUY signal is entered on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-25-11 The S&P fell slightly by 3 to 1159 in the short holiday session. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1206; the IT bogey is at 1216. We are below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 10/20/11. We bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. The IT SELL signal was 11/22/11. The result of the IT round trip was -5%, bringing the booked IT result since 2/18/10 to 0%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/14/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining.  We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -79 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -528 to -405. We dropped a -870 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The upturn in 5DMA while the S&P did not turn up, gives an ARM signal, first half of ARM&FIRE BUY signal. Any upturn in S&P tomorrow will complete the BUY signal. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1287.7.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1343 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line turns down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1265. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 12/2 the bogey is 1320, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 was -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1136 for the coming week. Since we are below the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. We got a 50% IT buy signal  on 10/20/11 (see that column) and a 100% IT Buy signal on 10/27/11. The IT SELL signal on 11/22/11 gave a round trip loss of -5%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 0%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -1.2%; the Short-term50 result is -3.8%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -7.9%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

11-23-11 The S&P fell hard by 26 to 1162. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1206; the IT bogey is at 1204. We are below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We had an IT 50% BUY signal on 10/20/11. We bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. The IT SELL signal was 11/22/11. The result of the IT round trip was -5%, bringing the booked IT result since 2/18/10 to 0%. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/14/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining.  We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -807 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -528 to -563. We dropped a -631 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-22-11 The S&P fell again by 5 to 1186. IT SELL signal today. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1208; the IT bogey is at 1189. We are below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA turns down and we get an IT SELL signal. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. We bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. The result of the IT round trip was -5%, bringing the booked IT result since 2/18/10 to 0%. This changes the IT Downtrend to True and the Long Purchase State to Dirty. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/14/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining.  We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -399 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -402 to -528. We dropped a +232 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The IT SELL, IT Downtrend and the Long Purchase State has been recorded on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-21-11 The S&P fell again by 20 to 1196.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1207; the IT bogey is at 1173. We are below the 50DMA but above  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. We bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/14/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -804 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -224 to -402. We dropped a -503 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-18-11 The S&P fell by a fraction to 1216.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1207; the IT bogey is at 1162. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. We bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/14/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +63 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -224 to -342. We dropped a +649 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1287.7.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1329 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line turns down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1272. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 11/25 the bogey is 1343, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 was -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1216 for the coming week. Since we are above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. This gives a 50% IT BUY signal; if the trend persists for two weeks, we get the other 50% BUY signal. We got a 50% IT buy signal on 10/13/11, which we acted upon on 10/20/11 (see that column) and a 100% IT Buy signal on 10/27/11. The gain in IT System since then is -2.7%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal +2.2%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -1.2%; the Short-term50 result is -3.8%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -4.4%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

11-17-11 The S&P fell by 21 to 1216.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1206; the IT bogey is at 1154. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. We bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/14/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -870 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +29 to -224. We dropped a +398 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-16-11 The S&P fell by 21 to 1237.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1205; the IT bogey is at 1186. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/14/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -631 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours]  from -60 to +29. We dropped a -1079 from the average from six days ago, giving a  large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. I very seldom recommend articles, and less so about fundamentals (we are a technical site). But I am recommending Edward Harrison's article on the current very serious European debt crisis: http://seekingalpha.com/article/308081-italian-default-scenarios?ifp=0&source=email_authors_alerts.

11-15-11 The S&P advanced by 6 to 1258.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1204; the IT bogey is at 1199. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/14/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +232 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours]  from +5 to -60. We dropped a +561 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; not only was the 5DMA not below -5 while the S&P advanced, but also since yesterday was a sell signal, today would have been a whipsaw if it were a buy signal, and thus ignored. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-14-11 The S&P fell by 12 to 1252. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1202; the IT bogey is at 1165. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/14/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -503 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +145 to +5. We dropped a +196 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA while the 5DMA was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal.We sold the We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 11/11/11  for a loss of  -0.5%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -1.2%; the S&P is down -0.5% for the CY. The Short-term50 System is -3.8% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Short-term SELL signal and BEAR market are noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-11-11 The S&P advanced by 24 to 1264. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1201; the IT bogey is at 1174. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/11/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +649 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -35 to +145. We dropped a -250 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA while the 5DMA was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY  signal. The Short-term Systems will BUY with 50% of short-term funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. The BUY signals are entered on the Market State page. I will not personally buy except with a very small position, since I believe we will roll over very soon, based on the 5DMA being at a high number. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1287.7.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1311 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line turns down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1272. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 11/18 the bogey is 1329, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 is -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1177 for the coming week. Since we are above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. This gives a 50% IT BUY signal; if the trend persists for two weeeks, we get the other 50% BUY signal. We got a 50% IT buy signal on 10/13/11, which we acted upon on 10/20/11 (see that column) and a 100% IT Buy signal on 10/27/11. The gain in IT System since then is +1.1%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -0.7%; the Short-term50 result is -3.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is +0.5%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

11-10-11 The S&P rebounded by 11 to 1240. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should have SOLD all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1200; the IT bogey is at 1204. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/4/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +398 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +32 to -35. We dropped a +733 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-9-11 The S&P plunged by 45 to 1226. Are we glad the whipsaw rule kept us from a buy signal on 11/7/11. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should SELL all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1199; the IT bogey is at 1219. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/4/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1079 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +400 to +32. We dropped a +758 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-8-11 The S&P advanced by 15 to 1276. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should SELL all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1199; the IT bogey is at 1213. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/4/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +561 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +58 to +400 We dropped a -1150 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-7-11 The S&P advanced by 8 to 1261. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should SELL all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1198; the IT bogey is at 1210. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/4/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +196 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -165 to +58. We dropped a -918 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-4-11 The S&P retreated today, falling by 8 to 1253. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). Market trend reverts to 100% BEAR. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Since the S&P closed below the bogey of 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should SELL all Long-term Investments.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1196; the IT bogey is at 1177. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 11/4/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -250 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell   from -106 to -165. We dropped a +45 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA was above +2.5 (yesterday before the after hours correction) and the S&P declined, we have a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 11/2/11  for a gain of  +0.6%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -0.7%; the S&P is down -0.4% for the CY. The Short-term50 System is -3.3% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Short-term SELL signal and BEAR market are noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of October, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1287.7.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1276.4 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line turns down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1274. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. Since the S&P closed below 1276.4 on 11/4/11, we are back to a 100% BEAR market. .Long-term Investors should SELL all Long-term Investments.  In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 11/11 the bogey is 1311, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 10/28/11 and ended 11/4/11 is -2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1177 for the coming week. Since we are above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. This gives a 50% IT BUY signal; if the trend persists for two weeeks, we get the other 50% BUY signal. We got a 50% IT buy signal on 10/13/11, which we acted upon on 10/20/11 (see that column) and a 100% IT Buy signal on 10/27/11. The gain in IT System since then is +0.3%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -0.1%; the Short-term50 result is -2.7%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -0.4%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

11-3-11 The S&P rose by 23 to 1261. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Long-term Investors may buy with 50% of available funds for Long-term Investment. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. If the S&P closes below 1276.4 this Friday, we will be back to 100% BEAR market .  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1194; the IT bogey is at 1159. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks have passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/2/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +733 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours]  from +4 to -106. We dropped a +1285 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-2-11 Finally a rally!  The S&P rose by 20 to 1238. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Long-term Investors may buy with 50% of available funds for Long-term Investment. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. If the S&P closes below 1276.4 this Friday, we will be back to 100% BEAR market .  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1192; the IT bogey is at 1178. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks have passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we bought the other 50% in the IT System on 10/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 11/2/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do..

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +758 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -5 to +4. We dropped a +712 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA while the 5DMA was at or below -5, gives a Short-term BUY  signal. The Short-term Systems will BUY with 50% of short-term funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. The BUY signals are entered on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

11-1-11   The S&P declined further by 35 to 1218. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Long-term Investors may buy with 50% of available funds for Long-term Investment. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. If the S&P closes below 1276.4 this Friday, we will be back to 100% BEAR market .  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1191; the IT bogey is at 1162. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks have passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we buy the other 50% in the IT System. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/31/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1150 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +59 to -5 (this will be an important number tomorrow). We dropped a -829 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-31-11  Giving back most of last week's strong advance, the S&P declined by 32 to 1253. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. On 10/28/11 we were above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we got a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Long-term Investors may buy with 50% of available funds for Long-term Investment. But the market failed to close above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 (the month-end reading from 10 months ago), so the 100% BULL market signal failed. If the S&P closes below 1276.4 this Friday, we will be back to 100% BEAR market .  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1189; the IT bogey is at 1124. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks have passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we buy the other 50% in the IT System. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/31/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -918 (million shares), with a  10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +380 to +59. We dropped a +686 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 10/27/11  for a loss of  -1.2%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -1.4%; the S&P is down -0.4% for the CY. The Short-term50 System is -4.0% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols.  The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-28-11  Another up and down day, the S&P finally finished ahead by a fraction to 1285. BULL Market BUY signal (50%). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. Now today we are above the 40 week bogey of 1283, so we get a 50% BULL market (BUY) signal. Long-term Investors may buy with 50% of available funds for Long-term Investment. If the market closes above 1286.1 on 10/31/11 we will have a 100% BULL market signal.   The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1186; the IT bogey is at 1124. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks have passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we buy the other 50% in the IT System. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/27/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +45 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +524 to +380. We dropped a +770 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. The 50% BULL Market BUY signal is recorded on the  Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1290.1.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week ABOVE the bogey, which is at 1283 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line turns up, and we are above  the 40 WMA of 1274. A 50% BULL market signal was declared on 10/28/11. Long-term investors may buy with 50% of funds for long-term holdings. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 11/4 the bogey is 1276, which we are now above. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 and ended 9/30/11 was +0.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1177 for the coming week. Since we are above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. This gives a 50% IT BUY signal; if the trend persists for two weeeks, we get the other 50% BUY signal. We got a 50% IT buy signal on 10/13/11, which we acted upon on 10/20/11 (see that column) and a 100% IT Buy signal on 10/27/11. The gain in IT System since then is +2.9%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -0.1%; the Short-term50 result is -2.7%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is +2.2%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

10-27-11  The S&P rocketed ahead by 43 to 1285. 100% BUY signal for IT System today. RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term investment. If the rally holds through Friday, we will get a 50% BULL Market signal; the bogey is at 1283.4.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1183; the IT bogey is at 1141. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. Since two weeks have passed since the 50% IT BUY signal and the uptrend is still in effect, we today buy the other 50% in the IT System. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/27/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1285 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of up to down volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +329 to +524. We dropped a +308 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. Since the previous minor high (bogey) of 1254 on 10/24/11 was exceeded by more than 1.5 points, we get a RunLite buy signal. The Short-term Systems will BUY with 50% of short-term funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. I will not actually make any purchase since the 5DMA is way over-bought, and I expect a down draft soon. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-26-11  An up and down and around day, the S&P finally ended up by 13 to 1242.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term investment. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1182; the IT bogey is at 1194. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. The last IT SELL signal was on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/25/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +712 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +61 to +329. We dropped a -631 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-25-11  A down day, the S&P fell by 25 to 1229. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term investment. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1181; the IT bogey is at 1193. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. The last IT SELL signal was on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/25/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -829 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +412 to +61. We dropped a +925 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 10/5/11  for a gain of  +0.6%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -0.1%; the S&P is down -2.3% for the CY. The Short-term50 System is -2.7% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols.  The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-24-11  The S&P advanced by 16 to 1254.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term investment. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1180; the IT bogey is at 1205. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. The last IT SELL signal was on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/20/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +686 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +130 to +412. We dropped a -724 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-21-11  The S&P advanced by 23 to 1237.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term investment. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1179; the IT bogey is at 1179. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which was 10/20/11. The last IT SELL signal was on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/20/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We recently avoided 7 BUYs in this system, of which 3 were unprofitable. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +770 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +105 to +130. We dropped a +644 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1290.1.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1293 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1274. A 50% BEAR market signal was declared on 8/12/11. The 9MMA declined on 9/30/11, giving us a 100% BEAR market signal. Long-term investors should have sold 100% of their long-term holdings. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/28 the bogey is 1283, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 and ended 9/30/11 was +0.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1124 for the coming week. Since we are above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. This gives a 50% IT BUY signal; if the trend persists for two weeeks, we get the other 50% BUY signal. We got a 50% IT buy signal on 10/13/11, which we acted upon on 10/20/11 (see that column). The gain in UT System since then is +0.9%. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The booked IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -0.7%; the Short-term50 result is -3.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -1.5%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

10-20-11  The S&P was up 6 to 1215. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term investment. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1177; the IT bogey is at 1173. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. We had an IT BUY signal on 10/13/11, but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY, which is today, so now we may BUY 50% of the IT position.. The last IT SELL signal was on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 10/10/11)-we missed this call until today. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/20/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 7 BUYs in this system. Today's purchase was also made in the Short50 System. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +308 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -11 to +105. We dropped a -270 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of Short-term available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been recorded on the  Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  Finally covered the shorts on this buy signal with some losses. We do not report results of short sales.

10-19-11  The S&P was down 15 to 1210.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term investment. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1175; the IT bogey is at 1121. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. Technically, we had an IT BUY signal (on 10/13/11), but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY. The last IT SELL signal was on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/7/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 7 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -631 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +259 to -11. We dropped a +722 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; it would have been a sell signal if we had acted on yesterday's RunLite buy signal.  We are once again saying our rule not to observe RunLite BUY signals in a BEAR market has kept us from losing money. We are watching this rule. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.   We rolled our short October call options to November, closed out some others and initiated others, eliminating those with positive chart patterns and keeping those with negative patterns.

10-18-11  The S&P moved smartly ahead, up 24 to 1225.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term investment. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1175; the IT bogey is at 1173. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. Technically, we had an IT BUY signal (on 10/13/11), but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY. The last IT SELL signal was on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/7/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 7 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +925 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +99 to +259. We dropped a +123 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; we were just short  of the 1.5 points we needed to be above the previous minor high of 1224.6 on 10/14/11 for a RunLite buy signal, which we are ignoring anyway since we are in a BEAR market.  We are watching this rule. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.   We have been covering some positions each day during this rally.

10-17-11  Finally! a Decline, the S&P  closed down 24 to 1201.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term investment. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1173; the IT bogey is at 1120. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues up. Technically, we had an IT BUY signal (on 10/13/11), but I recommended no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY. The last IT SELL signal was on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/7/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 7 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -724 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +407 to +99. We dropped a +817 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. I am glad (so far) that we have the rule to ignore RunLite signals in a BEAR market. No signals today; it would have been a short-term sell signal if we had any positions on. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  Shorts are looking better today. We have been shorting small positions each day during this rally, and of course are now underwater on some positions. Nonetheless, we expect a continued market decline over the short term based on recent columns.

10-14-11  The S&P banged up against that 1216 "ceiling" all day, finally breaking through and closing up 21 to 1225. The range of  1099 to 1216 was broken on the upside today. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term investment. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1172; the IT bogey is at 1200. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA turns up. Technically, this was an IT BUY signal (on 10/13/11), but I will recommend no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/7/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 7 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +644 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +142 to +407. We dropped a -683 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the previous minor high (bogey) of 1207 was exceeded by more than 1.5 points, we get a RunLite buy signal, but we ignore such signals in a BEAR market. We may have to re-visit this rule in the near future. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We have been shorting small positions each day during this rally, and of course are now underwater on some positions. Nonetheless, we expect a continued market decline over the short term based on recent columns.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1290.1.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1272 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1279. A 50% BEAR market signal was declared on 8/12/11. The 9MMA declined on 9/30/11, giving us a 100% BEAR market signal. Long-term investors should have sold 100% of their long-term holdings. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/21 the bogey is 1293, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 and ended 9/30/11 was +0.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1179 for the coming week. Since we are above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. This gives a 50% IT BUY signal; if the trend persists for two weeeks, we get the other 50% BUY signal. I am holding off making an actual IT buy until we get a Short-term BUY signal. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal.  The IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -0.7%; the Short-term50 result is -3.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -2.8%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

10-13-11  The S&P closed down 4 to 1204. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term investment. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1172; the IT bogey is at 1200. We are above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA turns up. Technically, this is a 50% IT BUY signal, but I will recommend no one make any purchases in IT system until the Short-term System signals a BUY. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/7/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 7 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -270 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +392 to +142. We dropped a +980 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; today would have been a Short-term SELL signal if we had any positions on. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We have been shorting small positions each day during this rally, and of course are now underwater on some positions. Nonetheless, we expect a continued market decline over the short term based on recent columns.

10-12-11  The S&P closed up 12 to 1207. We hit today and came off the previous S&P level of 1216-1218, which turned back each of two previous rallies. Also volume has been very low on this rally. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term investment. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1173; the IT bogey is at 1260. We are above the 50DMA but below  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/7/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 7 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +722 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +408 to +392. We dropped a +804 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We have been shorting small positions each day during this rally, and of course are now underwater on many positions. Nonetheless, we expect a market decline soon based on all the foregoing.

10-11-11  The S&P closed up 1 to 1196.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1174; the IT bogey is at 1254. We are above the 50DMA but below  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/7/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 7 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +123 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +617 to +408. We dropped a +1166 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Since today was not a BUY signal, we do not cover the short positions, and will just wait for the next buy signal to cover.

10-10-11  The S&P rocketed up 36 to 1195. Being a semi-holiday, and low volume, the move is suspect. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1176; the IT bogey is at 1287. We are above the 50DMA but below  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/7/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 7 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +817 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +190 to +617. We dropped a -1316 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. This would have been a RunLite BUY signal day since the previous bogey (S&P 1165 on 10/6/11) was exceeded by more than 1.5 points, but RunLite signals are not recognized in a BEAR market, so no BUY is given. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Since today was not a BUY signal, we do not cover the short positions, and will just wait for the next buy signal to cover.

10-7-11  A down and up day, the S&P finally was down 10 to 1155. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1178; the IT bogey is at 1292. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 10/7/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 7 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -683 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours]  from +95 to +190. We dropped a -1158 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a large positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 10/5/11  for a gain of  +0.5%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -0.7%; the S&P is down -8.1% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols.  The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Since we are in Oscillatory State, we can sell short on this sell signal. We sold a modest position of SPY, QQQ, and IWM short. We do not recommend the average investor sell short due to the unlimited loss potential if the stock rises. We also do not report for record purposes the results of the short sales.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1290.1.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1257 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1279. A 50% BEAR market signal was declared on 8/12/11. The 9MMA declined on 9/30/11, giving us a 100% BEAR market signal. Long-term investors should have sold 100% of their long-term holdings. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/14 the bogey is 1272, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 and ended 9/30/11 was +0.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1199 for the coming week. Since we are below the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%.  We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -0.7%; the Short-term50 result is -3.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -8.2%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

10-6-11  Another advance, the S&P was up 21 to 1165.  What is this market doing? The answer i on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column).  The other 50% came on 9/30/11 (see that column) as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. See here for our commentary on the 20% rule touted in the news media for a BEAR market.  The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1181; the IT bogey is at 1301. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/5/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 7 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +980 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme..  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose   from +11 to +95. We dropped a +559 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

10-5-11  The S&P was up 20 to 1144. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% came on 9/30/11 as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. You hear a lot on the news about a BEAR market is defined as a 20% drop from a previous top. If you take the S&P top in July 2011 at 1353 and deduct 20%, you get 1082. So by that rule we are close but not yet in a BEAR market. Our indicators are more useful and profit-making, as we got out 50% 8/12/11 at 1179 and the other 50% on 9/30/11 at 1131. If the market declines below 1082 and the news organizations declare a BEAR market, wouldn't you rather have got out at 1179 and 1131? The 50% rule uses the 40 week moving average of the S&P, the 100% rule uses the 9 month moving average for confirmation. Our rule has shown over and over over the years to be the better tool. The only advantage of the 20% rule is it is easier for the public to understand.

The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1184; the IT bogey is at 1304. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 10/5/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 7 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +804 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose   from -341 to +11. We dropped a -956 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of Short-term available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been recorded on the  Market State page. No buys are made in the Short-term50 System. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Short sales are covered today for a small loss.

10-4-11  The S&P was down all day until the close when it rallied sharply, up 25 to 1124. This is called a bottom reversal, but we did not get a BUY signal.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% came on 9/30/11 as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1192; the IT bogey is at 1337. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/30/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 6 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1166 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours]  from -440 to -341. We dropped a +670 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today, because the 5DMA was not up. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Short sales may be covered tomorrow.

10-3-11  The S&P closed down hard again by 32 to 1099, breaking the support level at 1120. The next support level is at 1064, with major support at  1022. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% came on 9/30/11 as we were below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1192; the IT bogey is at 1337. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/30/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 6 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1316 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +6 to -440. We dropped a +912 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Short sales are looking good.

9-30-11  The S&P closed down hard by 29 to 1131. 100% BEAR market declared today. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% comes on 9/30/11 as we are well below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1197; the IT bogey is at 1345. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/30/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 6 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1158 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +319 to +6. We dropped a +407 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 9/23/11  for a loss of  -0.2%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -1.2%; the S&P is down -8.6% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols.  The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL and the BEAR Market signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Since we are in Oscillatory State, we can sell short on this sell signal. We sold a modest position of SPY, QQQ, and IWM short. We do not recommend the average investor sell short due to the unlimited loss potential if the stock rises. We also do not report for record purposes the results of the short sales.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of September, and that table shows an decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1290.1.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1257 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1279. A 50% BEAR market signal was declared on 8/12/11. The 9MMA declined on 9/30/11, giving us a 100% BEAR market signal. Long-term investors should sell 100% of their long-term holdings. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 10/7 the bogey is 1258, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 and ended 9/30/11 was +0.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1292 for the coming week. Since we are below the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%.  We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -0.4%; the Short-term50 result is -3.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -10.%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

9-29-11  The S&P closed up 9 to 1160. Glad our rules kept us from selling out yesterday. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% will probably show up on 9/30/11 as we are well below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1201; the IT bogey is at 1344. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/23/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 6 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +559 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -103 to +319. We dropped a -1548 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-28-11  The S&P closed down  by 24 to 1151.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% will probably show up on 9/30/11 as we are well below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1204; the IT bogey is at 1326. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/23/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 6 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -956 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from -133 to -103. We dropped a -1107 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; this was not a sell signal since the 5DMA was not above the upper threshold of +28 when the downturn occurred. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-27-11  After being up by over 30 at one point, the S&P closed up  by 12 to 1175.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% may show up on 9/30/11 as we are well below the bogey of 1258 from 10 months ago. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1208; the IT bogey is at 1327. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/23/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 6 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +670 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -316 to -133. We dropped a -246 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-26-11  The S&P  closed up  by 27 to 1163.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1210; the IT bogey is at 1305. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/23/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 6 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +912 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -630 to -316. We dropped a -659 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-23-11  The S&P  closed up  by 7 to 1136. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1217; the IT bogey is at 1309. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/23/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 6 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +407 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -666 to -630. We dropped a +229 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of Short-term available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been recorded on the  Market State page. No buys are made in the Short-term50 System. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. We covered the short sales today for a nice profit; we do not report results of short sales for record purposes.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1304.2.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1244 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1282. A 50% BEAR market signal was declared on 8/12/11. Long-term investors should have sold 50% of their long-term holdings. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 9/30 the bogey is 1257, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 is +1.%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1321 for the coming week. Since we are below the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%.  We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -1.%; the Short-term50 result is -3.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -9.6%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

9-22-11  The S&P  closed down hard by another 37 to 1130.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1217; the IT bogey is at 1309. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/19/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 5 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1548 (million shares), with a more than 10: ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -207 to -666. We dropped a +747 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. We sold short on 9/19/11; short sales looking good so far.

9-21-11  The S&P  closed down hard by 35 to 1167.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1220; the IT bogey is at 1318. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/19/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 5 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1107 (million shares), with a more than 10: ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +166 to -207. We dropped a +760 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. We sold short on 9/19/11; short sales looking good so far.

9-20-11  The S&P  closed down 2 to 1202.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1223; the IT bogey is at 1314. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/19/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 5 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -246 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +324 to +166. We dropped a +542 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Short sales looking ok.

9-19-11  The S&P  closed down by 12 to 1204. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1226; the IT bogey is at 1319. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/19/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 5 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -659 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +487 to +324. We dropped a +157 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 9/12/11 and 9/7/11 for a gain of  +1.1%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -1%; the S&P is down -4.3% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols.  The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Since we are in Oscillatory State, we can sell short on this sell signal. We sold a modest position of SPY, QQQ, and IWN short. We do not recommend the average investor sell short due to the unlimited loss potential if the stock rises. We also do not report for record purposes the results of the short sales.

9-16-11  The S&P  closed up by 7 to 1216.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1229; the IT bogey is at 1344. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/12/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 5 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +229 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +215 to +487. We dropped a -1129 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1304.2.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1240 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1285. A 50% BEAR market signal was declared on 8/12/11. Long-term investors should have sold 50% of their long-term holdings. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 9/23 the bogey is 1244, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 is +8%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1321 for the coming week. Since we are below the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%.  We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -2.1%; the Short-term50 result is -3.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -3.3%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

9-15-11  The S&P  closed up by 20 to 1209.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1231; the IT bogey is at 1353. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/12/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 5 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +747 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -66 to +215. We dropped a -657 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-14-11  The S&P  closed up by 16 to 1189.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1234; the IT bogey is at 1339. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/12/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 5 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +760 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from -45 to -66. We dropped a +862 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-13-11  The S&P  closed up by 11 to 1173.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1237; the IT bogey is at 1338. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/12/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 5 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +542 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -285 to -45. We dropped a -657 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-12-11  The S&P  closed up by 8 to 1162. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1240; the IT bogey is at 1340. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/12/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 5 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +157 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -493 to -285. We dropped a -884 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal (the second in a row). We bought with 25% of Short-term available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is 2nd BUY), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been recorded on the  Market State page. No buys are made in the Short-term50 System. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-9-11 Another big down day. The S&P  closed down by 32 to 1154. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1243; the IT bogey is at 1321. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/7/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 4 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1129 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -411 to -493. We dropped a -720 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1304.2.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1225 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1286. A 50% BEAR market signal was declared on 8/12/11. Long-term investors should have sold 50% of their long-term holdings. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 9/16 the bogey is 1240, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 is +2.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1321 for the coming week. Since we are below the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%.  We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -2.1%; the Short-term50 result is -3.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -8.2%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

9-8-11 The S&P  closed down by 13 to 1186.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1246; the IT bogey is at 1307. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/7/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 4 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -657 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -170 to -411. We dropped a +551 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-7-11 The S&P  closed up by 33 to 1199. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1249; the IT bogey is at 1297. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 9/7/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 4 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +862 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  from -307 to -170. We dropped a +173 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of Short-term available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been recorded on the  Market State page. No buys are made in the Short-term50 System. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Short sales are bought back today for a modest profit. We do not list results of short sales for record  purposes.

9-6-11 The S&P  closed down by 9 to 1165.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1250; the IT bogey is at 1280. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/1/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 3 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -657 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from -5 to -307. We dropped a +858 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Short sales are looking good.

9-2-11 Wow, wham! The S&P  closed down by 30 to 1174. Glad for yesterday's Short-term sell signal. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1252; the IT bogey is at 1269. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/1/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 3 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -884 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +351 to -5. We dropped a +891 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Short sales are looking good.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of August, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1304.2.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1189 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1288. A 50% BEAR market signal was declared on 8/12/11. Long-term investors should have sold 50% of their long-term holdings. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 9/9 the bogey is 1225, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 is +4.3%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1321 for the coming week. Since we are below the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%.  We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -2.1%; the Short-term50 result is -3.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -6.7%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

9-1-11 The S&P  closed down by 14 to 1204. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear in August as we were above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6 on 8/31/11. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1255; the IT bogey is at 1284. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 9/1/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 3 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -720 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +358 to +351. We dropped a -683 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 8/23/11 for a gain of  +1.8%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -2.1%; the S&P is down -4.2% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols.  The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Since we are in Oscillatory State, we can sell short on this sell signal. We sold a modest position of SPY, QQQ, and IWN short. We do not recommend the average investor sell short due to the unlimited loss potential if the stock rises. We also do not report for record purposes the results of the short sales.

8-31-11 An up and down day again, the S&P finally closed up by 6 to 1219. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we fell below  the  40 week bogey of 1225. The other 50% failed to appear this month as we are above, not below, the 9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1256; the IT bogey is at 1287. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/23/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 3 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +551 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +368 to +358. We dropped a +603 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-30-11 Up and down all day, the S&P finally closed up by 3 to 1213. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the  40 week bogey of 1225; the other 50% will come at end of month if we are below the  9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1258; the IT bogey is at 1296. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/23/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 3 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +173 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +521 to +368. We dropped a +937 from the average from six days ago, giving a  negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-29-11 The S&P rocketed ahead by 33 to 1210. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the  40 week bogey of 1225; the other 50% will come at end of month if we are below the  9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1259; the IT bogey is at 1278. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/23/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 3 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +858 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of  up to down volume, which usually indicates a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +337 to +521. We dropped a -66 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-26-11 The S&P advanced smartly  by 17 to 1177. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the  40 week bogey of 1225; the other 50% will come at end of month if we are below the  9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1260; the IT bogey is at 1272. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/23/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 3 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +891 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -48 to +337. We dropped a -1031 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1299.9.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1200 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line has turned down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1288. A 50% BEAR market signal was declared on 8/12/11. Long-term investors should have sold 50% of their long-term holdings. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 9/2 the bogey is 1189, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 is +4.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1269 for the coming week. Since we are below the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%.  We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -3.9%; the Short-term50 result is -3.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -6.5%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

8-25-11 The S&P was down by 18 to 1159. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the  40 week bogey of 1225; the other 50% will come at end of month if we are below the  9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1262; the IT bogey is at 1268. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/23/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 3 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -683 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from -216 to -48. We dropped a -1525 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; this was not a sell signal since the 5DMA was not above the upper thresh hold of +19. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-24-11 The S&P made another nice advance, up 15 to 1178. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the  40 week bogey of 1225; the other 50% will come at end of month if we are below the  9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1264; the IT bogey is at 1265. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/23/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 3 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +603 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -301 to -216. We dropped a +179 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-23-11 The S&P stormed ahead by 39 to 1162. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the  40 week bogey of 1225; the other 50% will come at end of month if we are below the  9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1266; the IT bogey is at 1288. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/23/11. We have a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 3 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +937 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -637 to -301. We dropped a -740 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of Short-term available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been recorded on the  Market State page. No buys are made in the Short-term50 System. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Short positions are covered today for a nice profit. No records are reported for short sales.

8-22-11 The S&P rose a fraction to 1124.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the  40 week bogey of 1225; the other 50% will come at end of month if we are below the  9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1269; the IT bogey is at 1272. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/16/11. We are initiating a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 2 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -66 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -419 to -637. We dropped a +1022 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Short positions still good.

8-19-11 Up and down all day, but in a civilized manner, the S&P dropped 17 to 1124.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the  40 week bogey of 1225; the other 50% will come at end of month if we are below the  9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1272; the IT bogey is at 1271. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/16/11. We are initiating a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 2 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1031 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -160 to -419. We dropped a +264 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Short positions still good.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1299.9.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1199 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line turns down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1289, so a 50% BEAR market signal was declared on 8/12/11. Long-term investors should have sold 50% of their long-term holdings. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 8/26 the bogey is 1200, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 is -0.2%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1271 for the coming week. Since we are below the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We got an IT BUY signal 9/3/10 and the 100% signal on 9/17/10. We sold on 3/16/11, for a profit of 14%, bringing the booked IT profit for the year to +9.8%.   We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -3.9%; the Short-term50 result is -3.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -10.8%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

8-18-11 The S&P plunged by 53  to 1141. Glad we are out of short and intermediate positions and 50% of long positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the  40 week bogey of 1225; the other 50% can come at end of month if we are below the  9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1275; the IT bogey is at 1289. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/16/11. We are initiating a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 2 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1525 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of  up to down volume, which usually indicates a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +501 to -160. We dropped a +1780 from the average from six days ago, giving a  large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Short positions are looking good.

8-17-11 The S&P was up by 1  to 1194.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the  40 week bogey of 1225; the other 50% can come at end of month if we are below the  9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1278; the IT bogey is at 1280. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/16/11. We are initiating a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 2 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +179 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +90 to +501. We dropped a -1875 from the average from six days ago, giving a  large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-16-11 The S&P was down by 12  to 1193. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the  40 week bogey of 1225; the other 50% can come at end of month if we are below the  9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1279; the IT bogey is at 1285. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/16/11. We are initiating a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 2 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -740 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +691 to +90. We dropped a +2265 from the average from six days ago, giving a  large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 8/3/11 and 8/9/11 for a loss of  -2.3%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -3.9%; the S&P is down -5.2% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols.  The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-Sellers paragraph. Since we are in Oscillatory State, we can sell short on this sell signal. We sold a modest position of SPY, QQQ, and IWN short. We do not recommend the average investor sell short due to the unlimited loss potential if the stock rises. We also do not report for record purposes the results of the short sales.

8-15-11 The S&P was up  by 26  to 1204. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/12/11 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the  40 week bogey of 1225; the other 50% can come at end of month if we are below the  9 month bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1281; the IT bogey is at 1286. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/9/11. We are initiating a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 2 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1022 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of  up to down volume, which usually indicates a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -10 to +691. We dropped a -2486 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is over +400. we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-12-11 Finally a normal day,  the S&P  up  by 5  to 1178. BEAR Market 50% signal. Sell 50 % of your Long-term holdings. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). We got a 50% BEAR market signal 8/12/11 since we are below  the bogey of 1225; the other 50% can come at end of month if we are below the bogey of 1180.6. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1283; the IT bogey is at 1300. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/9/11. We are initiating a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 2 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +264 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -172 to -10. We dropped a -546 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 50% BEAR MArket signal has been noted on  the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1299.9.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week BELOW the bogey, which is at 1226 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line turns down, and we are below  the 40 WMA of 1290, so a 50% BEAR market signal is declared on 8/12/11. Long-term investors should sell 50% of their long-term holdings. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 8/19 the bogey is 1199, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 is +4.7%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1271 for the coming week. Since we are below the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We got an IT BUY signal 9/3/10 and the 100% signal on 9/17/10. We sold on 3/16/11, for a profit of 14%, bringing the booked IT profit for the year to +9.8%.   We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -1.6%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -6.3%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

8-11-11 Down 50, up 50, down 50, up 50; see-saw, roller coaster;  the S&P roared again, up  by 52  to 1173. This is apparently a successful  test of the bottom of 8/8/11. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). We will get a 50% BEAR market signal this Friday unless we have a huge rally; the bogey is at 1225. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1286; the IT bogey is at 1313. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/9/11. We are initiating a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 2 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1780 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -883 to -172. We dropped a -1775 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-10-11  In a mirror image of yesterday, the S&P got whacked again, falling  by 52  to 1121. This is hopefully a test of the bottom of 2 days ago, and the test will succeed. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). We will get a 50% BEAR market signal this Friday unless we have a huge rally; the bogey is at 1225. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1289; the IT bogey is at 1315. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/9/11. We are initiating a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last 2 BUYs in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1875 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -459 to -883. We dropped a +247 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold.  No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-9-11  The S&P regained much of what it lost yesterday, rising by 53  to 1173. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). We will get a 50% BEAR market signal this Friday unless we have a huge rally; the bogey is at 1225. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1293; the IT bogey is at 1345. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/9/11. We are initiating a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We  avoided the last BUY (and today's) in this system. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +2265 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -1133 to -459. We dropped a -1106 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. The Short-term System bought with 25% of Short-term available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the second buy signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been recorded on the  Market State page. The Short-term50 System did not buy because the 50DMA is declining.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-8-11  The S&P PLUNGED 80  to 1120.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). We will get a 50% BEAR market signal this Friday unless we have a huge rally; the bogey is at 1225. The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1296; the IT bogey is at 1331. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/3/11. We are initiating a new System Short-term50, wherein we do not make any Short-term System50 purchase if the 50 DMA is declining. We would have avoided the last BUY if this had been in place. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -2486 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume (more like 100:1!!), which usually indicates a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -614 to -1133. We dropped a +109 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-5-11  The S&P was down 1  to 1199.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1303; the IT bogey is at 1320. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/3/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -546 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -604 to -614. We dropped a -494 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. On 9/17/10 the S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal .  When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1299.9.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week above the bogey, which is at 1183 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, even though we are below  the 40 WMA of 1291, so the BULL Market continues. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 8/12 the bogey is 1226, which we are now below. If the S&P is lower than 1226 on Friday (8/12) we will get a 50% BEAR market signal, and 50% of Long-term positions should be sold then. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 is +14.8%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1300 for the coming week. Since we are below the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We got an IT BUY signal 9/3/10 and the 100% signal on 9/17/10. We sold on 3/16/11, for a profit of 14%, bringing the booked IT profit for the year to +9.8%.   We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -1.6%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is -4.6%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

8-4-11  The S&P plunged by 60!!   to 1200. Market State falls from Run-5 to Oscillatory (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1303; the IT bogey is at 1320. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/4/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/3/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1775 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -307 to -604. We dropped a -292 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold.  Since the S&P fell through the last bogey (minor low 1254 on 8/2/11 before last buy signal), without an intervening sell signal, that means the Market State drops from Run-5 to Oscillatory. We do not sell our 50% positions on this event, we will have a second buy signal soon. The State change has been recorded on the  Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-3-11  The S&P was up by 6  to 1260. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1305; the IT bogey is at 1316. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/3/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +247 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -551 to -307. We dropped a -970 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of Short-term available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been recorded on the  Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-2-11  The S&P plunged by 33 to 1254. Glad we are out of Short-term and Intermediate-term positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1306; the IT bogey is at 1317. We are below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/25/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1106 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -369 to -551. We dropped a -199 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-1-11  After being up earlier, the S&P closed down by 5 to 1287.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1308; the IT bogey is at 1333. We are now below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/25/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +109 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from -476 to -369. We dropped a -424 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-29-11  After being down a lot more earlier, the S&P closed down by 8 to 1292.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1309; the IT bogey is at 1344. We are now below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/25/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -494 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -382 to -476. We dropped a -23 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Friday next  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal on 9/17/10. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1299.9.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week above the bogey, which is at 1183 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, and we are above  the 40 WMA of 1291 so the BULL Market continues. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 8/5 the bogey is 1183, which we are well above now. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 is +14.8%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1326 for the coming week. Since we are below the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We got an IT BUY signal 9/3/10 and the 100% signal on 9/17/10. We sold on 3/16/11, for a profit of 14%, bringing the booked IT profit for the year to +9.8%.   We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -1.6%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is +2.8%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

7-28-11  The S&P was down again after being up most of the day, by 4 to 1301.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1310; the IT bogey is at 1341. We are now below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/25/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -292 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -192 to -382. We dropped a +657 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-27-11  The S&P got whacked today, down 27 to 1305. IT SELL signal today. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1311; the IT bogey is at 1329. We are now below the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA turns down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/27/11. The one day round trip cost a loss of 1%, bringing the IT gain since 2/18/10 to +5%. This signal also changes the IT Downtrend (ITD) Flag to True and the Long Purchase (LP) State to Dirty, meaning we scale-in purchases (buy 50%, then 25% etc) when we get a Short-term buy signal. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/25/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -970 (million shares),with a more than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme.. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +28 to -192. We dropped a +127 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The Market State page  has been updated for the IT 50 SELL and the ITD flag.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-26-11  The S&P fell by 5  to 1332. IT 50% BUY signal today. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1311; the IT bogey is at 1330. We are now above the 50DMA and  the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA turns up. We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 7/26/11.  If we stay above the 50DMA for 2 weeks we get the other 50% BUY signal. This signal also changes the IT Downtrend Flag to False and the Long Purchase (LP) State to Clean, meaning we can buy 100% when we get a Short-term buy signal. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/25/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -199 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +191 to +28. We dropped a +618 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The Market State page  has been updated for the IT 50% BUY and the ITD flag.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-25-11  The S&P fell by 8  to 1337.  Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1311; the IT bogey is at 1338. We are now above the 50DMA but below the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/12/11. We had an IT BUY signal (50%) on 6/30/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%  We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/25/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -424 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from +132 to +191. We dropped a -717 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 7/21/11 for a loss of  -0.2%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -1.6%; the S&P is up +6.4% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols.  The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-22-11  The S&P advanced by 1  to 1345. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1312; the IT bogey is at 1349. We are now above the 50DMA but below the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/12/11. We had an IT BUY signal (50%) on 6/30/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%  We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/21/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -23 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +161 to +132. We dropped a +123 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal on 9/17/10. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1288.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week above the bogey, which is at 1176 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, and we are above  the 40 WMA of 1288 so the BULL Market continues. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/29 the bogey is 1183, which we are well above now. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 is +19.5%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1344 for the coming week. Since we are above the 50DMA but below the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We got an IT BUY signal 9/3/10 and the 100% signal on 9/17/10. We sold on 3/16/11, for a profit of 14%, bringing the booked IT profit for the year to +9.8%.   We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is -1.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is +7%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

7-21-11  The S&P rocketed ahead by 18  to 1344. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1311; the IT bogey is at 1357. We are now above the 50DMA but below the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/12/11. We had an IT BUY signal (50%) on 6/30/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%  We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/21/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +657 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -88 to +161  We dropped a +348 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of Short-term available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been recorded on the  Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-20-11  The S&P fell by 1  to 1326. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1312; the IT bogey is at 1346. We are now above the 50DMA but below the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/12/11. We had an IT BUY signal (50%) on 6/30/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%  We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/18/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +127 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from -44 to -88  We dropped a +348 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.   Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-19-11  The S&P raced ahead today by 21 to 1327. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1312; the IT bogey is at 1340. We are now above the 50DMA but below the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/12/11. We had an IT BUY signal (50%) on 6/30/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%  We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/18/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +618 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -231 to -44  We dropped a -319 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. It would have been a normal buy signal, but since yesterday was a sell signal, today becomes a whipsaw, and so the buy is ignored. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-18-11  The S&P fell today by 11 to 1305. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1312; the IT bogey is at 1335. We are now below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/12/11. We had an IT BUY signal (50%) on 6/30/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%  We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/18/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -717 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +15 to -231  We dropped a +613 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQ and IWM we bought on 7/15/11 for a loss of  +0.8%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +0.5%; the S&P is up +3.8% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols.  The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-15-11  The S&P rose today by 7 to 1316. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1314; the IT bogey is at 1357. We are now above the 50DMA but below the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/12/11. We had an IT BUY signal (50%) on 6/30/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%  We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/15/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +123 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -109 to +15  We dropped a -495 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of Short-term available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been recorded on the  Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal on 9/17/10. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1288.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week above the bogey, which is at 1165 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, and we are above  the 40 WMA of 1284, so the BULL Market continues. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/22 the bogey is 1176, which we are well above now. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 is +16.9%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1349 for the coming week. Since we are above the 50DMA but below the bogey, we are in an IT downtrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We got an IT BUY signal 9/3/10 and the 100% signal on 9/17/10. We sold on 3/16/11, for a profit of 14%, bringing the booked IT profit for the year to +9.8%.   We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11 and an IT SELL signal on  7/12/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%.  The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is +1.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is +4.7%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.  

7-14-11  The S&P fell today by 9 to 1309.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1314; the IT bogey is at 1357. We are now below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/12/11. We had an IT BUY signal (50%) on 6/30/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%  We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/5/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -590 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +119 to -109  We dropped a +548 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-13-11  The S&P rose today by 4 to 1318.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1315; the IT bogey is at 1361. We are now above the 50DMA but below the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We got an IT SELL signal on 7/12/11. We had an IT BUY signal (50%) on 6/30/11. The round trip gave a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%  We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/5/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +348 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -202 to +119.  We dropped a +30 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; this was not a buy signal since we were not below the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-12-11  The S&P was down again today, by 6 to 1314. IT SELL Signal today. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1315; the IT bogey is at 1364. We are now below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. This generates an IT SELL signal (on 7/12/11). We had an IT BUY signal (50%) on 6/30/11. The round trip gives a loss of 0.3%, making the IT System gains since 2/18/10 equal 6.%  We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/5/11. We have added a paragraph concerning what we actually do in buying and selling, versus what the Systems do.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -319 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -180 to -202.  We dropped a -209 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The IT SELL signal also changes the IT Downtrend to True and the Long Purchase State (LPS) to Dirty, changing the 100% buys to 50%, 25%, etc. on subsequent buys. The IT SELL, IT Downtrend and LPS  have been recorded on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-11-11  The S&P was down hard today, by 24 to 1319. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1316; the IT bogey is at 1361. We are above the 50DMA but below the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA continues down. We had an IT BUY signal (50%) on 6/30/11.  If we stay above the 50DMA and the 50DMA is advancing in 2 weeks we get the other 50% BUY signal.  We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/5/11.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -773 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ration of down to up volume, usually indicting a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +118 to -180.  We dropped a +717 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

 Trading Supplement (7-9-11)

You may have noticed that for 30+ years we have used the ETF;s SPY, QQQ and IWM as the vehicles for implementing the buy and sell signals that the Field Systems generate. We will continue to use these as the record vehicles for the systems as they are easy to follow and readers may actually use them as trading vehicles to match the performance we report here.

I also want to let you in on what we actually do (for the most part) in our weekly trading (Short-term System) as a more leveraged and thus more profitable (and riskier) method. This involves:

1.        When we get a Short-term BUY signal:

Using stocks (or leveraged ETF’s) which have a rising 50 DMA,

Selling put options on them that are just out of the money.

Selling put options rather than buying calls is less risky and you have time on your side, as the premium in the option decays with time to your advantage as option expiration approaches. Selling puts rather than buying the stock gives you more bang for the buck. If the market goes against me in an unexpected manner, I close out the position as soon as a) the 50DMA turns down, b) the put goes into the money, or c) we get a Short-term SELL signal.

2.        When we get a Short-term SELL signal:

Using stocks (or leveraged ETF’s) which have a declining 50DMA,

Selling call options that are just out of the money.

Selling call options rather than buying puts is less risky and you have time on your side, as the premium in the option decays with time to your advantage as option expiration approaches. Selling calls rather than shorting the stock gives you more bang for the buck. If the market goes against me in an unexpected manner, I close out the position as soon as a) the 50DMA turns up, b) the call goes into the money, or c) we get a Short-term BUY signal.

Selling naked Calls or Puts is much riskier than buying or shorting stocks, so they must be watched daily. Also I put only a relatively small fraction of my available working capital into this plan as it is fairly risky. And I commit only a small amount to each position. I may have 20 different positions in this plan.

I keep separate lists of very active and very volatile stocks (high beta) that have a) advancing 50DMA, and b) declining 50DMA, so I am ready when I get a signal.

We will not be reporting the results of this plan, as it is not the record plan and it is riskier than the record plan and we don’t want to encourage readers to engage in more risk than they can tolerate or understand.

7-8-11  The S&P gave back today, down by 9 to 1344. We now see the need for the special rule used yesterday that prevented us from buying on the RunLite buy signal, because it occurred simultaneously with the State advance to Run-5. Today would have been a Short-term sell signal causing loss. The next RunLite buy signal we can act upon. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. A BULL Market (100%) was declared on 9/30/10 (see that column). The Intermediate-term (IT) 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1317; the IT bogey is at 1356. We are above the 50DMA but below the bogey, so the IT 50 DMA turns down. We had an IT BUY signal (50%) on 6/30/11.  If we stay above the 50DMA for 2 weeks we get the other 50% BUY signal.  We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 7/7/11). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/5/11.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -495 (million shares).. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +323 to +118.  We dropped a +529 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving us a 50% BULL Market signal on 9/17/10. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA) to 1288.  The 9MMA bogey for September 2010 was 1115.1, and we closed above that, so the 9MMA also turned up, and the 100% BULL market was declared on 9/30/10.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed the week above the bogey, which is at 1146 (see table below for today's date), so the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, and we are above  the 40 WMA of 1280, so the BULL Market continues. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/15 the bogey is 1165, which we are well above now. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the BULL market that started 9/17/10 is +19.3%. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1347 for the coming week. Since we are above the 50DMA and the bogey, we are in an IT uptrend. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We got an IT BUY signal 9/3/10 and the 100% signal on 9/17/10. We sold on 3/16/11, for a profit of 14%, bringing the booked IT profit for the year to +9.8%.   We got an IT 50% BUY signal on 6/30/11. The IT System change since then is  +1.8%. The booked Short-term System result for CY10 was +10.5%. The S&P gain was +12.8% for CY10. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY11 is +1.3%. The S&P result to date for CY11 is +6.9%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.