7-31-03 Dear Reader: After a vigorous intra-day rally, the markets flagged and closed only slightly higher. The S&P500 closed up 3 to 990. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +292 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -57 to +53. We dropped a -257 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday-Monday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA is below the lower threshold of -30 (approx), gives us a Short-term BUY signal. We have the good fortune today of buying on the close when what looked like a huge rally was calmed down considerably, so our buying prices were much better than they would have been mid-day. Since we are Long-Purchase Clean, we can BUY with 100% of our equity allocation, if we like. We put 1/3 each into SPY, QQQ and IWM (Russell 2000 index). Please see Glossary and ETF (Exchange Traded Funds) page for any unfamiliar terms. The Market State is raised from Oscillatory to Run-5, since the bogey was violated by more than one point. The Market State page has been updated for today's action.

Short-sellers paragraph (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms): Since the bogey of 998.7 for the notional (on paper only) short sale of 7/28/03 was violated by more than one point, we have a busted (notional) short sale. This serves to maintain the short state at Dirty. It also indicates that the short state being at Dirty on 7/28/03, when we got the last SELL signal, saved us from taking out any short sales, which would have gathered a loss today, as they would have been closed out on the bogey violation. Thus the virtue of the short state indicator to prevent us from doing that is seen.

7-30-03 Dear Reader: A dull day, the S&P500 closed down 1 to 988.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -260 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -9 to -57. We dropped a -21 from the average from six days ago, giving us a slight positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today. We are in the BUY range on 5DMA so an up day in S&P could bring a BUY signal tomorrow.

7-29-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 7 to 989. Yesterday's Short-term SELL signal is looking OK.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -508 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +232 to -9. We dropped a +697 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

7-28-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 2 to 997. SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +25 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +87 to +232. We dropped a -702 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The decline in S&P500 after an ARM signal on Friday, gives us a FIRE signal (second half of ARM & FIRE) for a Short-Term SELL signal. This is despite the rise in 5DMA. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. This round trip gained a modest profit of 0.32%, bringing our gain for the year to 11.2%. The Market State and Results_History pages have been updated. Long-Term investors should ignore these signals.

Short-Sellers Paragraph. We can not do an actual short sale here since the Short State is Dirty (and the decline in S&P was less than four points), but we have to do a notional (on paper only) short sale to keep track of the Market State Flag. The bogey for this sale is the recent minor high on Friday at 998.7. If the S&P closes above 999.7 (bogey plus 1), we say the bogey is violated and the Market State becomes Run-5. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

7-25-03 Dear Reader: A nice rally today, the S&P500 closed up 17 to 999.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +717 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV actually fell from +112 to +87. We dropped a +845 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Monday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The decline in 5DMA while it was above the upper threshold of +20 (approx) gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM & FIRE). A decline in S&P500 on Monday will give a FIRE to complete a SELL signal. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). For the next five weeks, the S&P500 needs to stay above 937 to stay in the clear. If we get a major decline, we will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-24-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 7 to 982.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -257 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV actually rose from -29 to +112. We dropped a -963 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today. We could get a SELL signal tomorrow if the S&P closes down.

7-23-03 Dear Reader: After being down most of the day, the S&P500 closed up less than a point to 989.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -21 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -157 to -29. We dropped a -664 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

7-22-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was up by 9 to 988, for a repeat BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +697 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -392 to -157. We dropped a -479 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The upturn in S&P500 simultaneously with the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives us a repeat Short-Term BUY signal, which is sterile since the System is already 100% long from the first BUY signal on 7/18/03. The Market State page is not updated for sterile signals. If you happen to have unused margin you can BUY with one half of your available funds, if you like, as we do when the market is Long-Purchase Dirty. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-21-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was down by 15 to 979. This is a disappointing performance a day after a BUY signal and knocks us into Oscillatory State since the bogey at 981.7 on 7/17/03 for that BUY was violated. See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -702 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -166 to -392. We dropped a +429 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The decline in S&P500 below the bogey for Friday's BUY signal drops us into Oscillatory State, wherein the BUY-SELL thresholds for the 5DMA will change. The Market State page has been updated for this change. No signals today.

7-18-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was up nicely by 12 to 993, giving us a BUY signal (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +845 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -243 to -166. We dropped a +462 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives us a normal Run-5 Short-Term BUY signal. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Since the Long-Purchase state in a BULL market is always Clean, we can BUY with 100% of the available allocation for equities. We bought 1/3 each of SPY, QQQ and IWM (the Russell 2000 index stock). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms and ETF page for info on these index funds.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). For the next six weeks, the S&P500 needs to stay above 937 to stay in the clear. If we get a major decline, we will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

7-17-03 Dear Reader: Another down day for the S&P500, which was lower by 12 to 982. I am so glad we are not long during these declines (we sold out on the Short-Term SELL signal on 7/15/03). Long-Term Investors: take no notice, all is well.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -963 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -238 to -243. We dropped a -937 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Friday-Monday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

7-16-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was down 6 to 994. Yesterday's Short-Term SELL signal is looking OK.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -664 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -112 to -238. We dropped a -34 from the average from six days ago, giving us a slight positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

7-15-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was down 3 to 1000. Short-Term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -479 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +43 to -112. We dropped a +297 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The decline in the S&P500 today after the ARM signal yesterday gives us a FIRE signal to complete the Arm & Fire Short-Term SELL signal. We made a small profit on this round trip, 2.3 S&P points, bringing the profit for the year to +10.88%. The Market State and Results_History pages have been updated. While it is irritating to have to sell only a few days after a buy, we must act when the signals come, as many decades of experience have proven. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-14-03 Dear Reader: A nice advance for Bastille Day, the S&P500 was up 6 to 1004. It makes Friday's BUY signal look good. Of course we were much higher during the day, but we'll take what we can get.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +429 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +131 to +43. We dropped a +864 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The decline in the 5DMA while it was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us an ARM signal, the first half of an Arm & Fire SELL signal. Any decline in the S&P 500 tomorrow will complete the signal with a FIRE and give the SELL signal. Any rise in S&P will cancel the Arm signal, but it may be re-set by tomorrow's action in the 5DMA.

7-11-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was up 9 to 998. The action today gives us a Short-Term BUY signal (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +462 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -41 to +131. We dropped a -393 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives us a normal Run-5 Short-Term BUY signal. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Since the Long-Purchase state in a BULL market is always Clean, we can BUY with 100% of the available allocation for equities; we bought 1/3 each of SPY, QQQ and IWM (the Russell 2000 index stock). See Glossary for any unfamiliar terms and ETF page for info on these index funds.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). For the next week, the S&P500 may decline modestly without jeopardizing the BULL market. (After that the market needs to stay above 940 to stay in the clear-more details to come.) If we get a major decline, we will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms

7-10-03 Dear Reader: Being down all day, the S&P500 finally closed 14 lower to 989. If you had anything to sell and sold on yesterday's sterile SELL signal (see 7/9 column), you should be feeling pretty good.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -937 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +328 to -41. We dropped a +905 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Friday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. Being in market state Run-5 and being below -5 in 5DMA, we are now in the BUY-ing range (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms). No signals today.

7-9-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was down 6 to 1002. This gives us a sterile SELL signal (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -32 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +408 to +328. We dropped a +370 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a negative bias Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a Short-Term SELL signal. But since we sold on 7/3 and we have no positions on, it is a sterile signal. We do not list sterile signals on the Market State page. We do a notional (on paper only) short sale in order to keep track of the market state flag. The SELL signal does establish yesterday's close (1007.8) as a bogey, which if violated by at least 1.5 S&P points, will raise us to RunLight State with an immediate BUY signal, regardless of the 5DMA (please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms).

7-8-03 Dear Reader: The S&P500 was up a modest 3 to 1008.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +297 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +345 to +408. We dropped a -22 from the average from six days ago, giving us a slight positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. When the 5DMA is above 400 we consider it to be "over-bought". No signals today.

7-7-03 Dear Reader: A boomer rally after the post-holiday loss; the S&P500 closed up 19 to 1004. I guess that adage about the market going the wrong way on a holiday (see 7/3/03 column) was working in spades today. It is disappointing that we got a SELL signal on 7/3, sold out and missed this rally. There is another saying that people get more upset about missing a rally than they do about losing money when the market declines. Even though it is a disappointment, I refer to our 17.6% per year average performance over nearly 10 years, beating the S&P 500 by about 7 %, to realize that sticking to the rules is the only way to deliver that performance. It has taken me decades to form the discipline to stick with the System without fail. That doesn't mean that an occasional rule change isn't warranted, and we continually review market behavior and the rules to try and improve the System.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +864 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +75 to +345. We dropped a -485 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The advance in the S&P above the bogey of 994 from 7/2/03 raises the Market State from Oscillatory to Run-5. In other words our notional (on paper only) short sale of 7/3 would have been a loser if closed out today, so we say the notional trade was busted, and this causes the market state change. The short sale state was already Dirty (meaning we can't actually sell short), and the Run-5 state automatically sets the short state to Dirty (where it was already). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The Market State page has been updated for the State change to Run-5.

7-3-03 Dear Reader: A decline for a short holiday day; the S&P500 closed down 8 to 986. SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -393 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +274 to +75. We dropped a +604 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Monday-Tuesday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P500 and the 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +20 (approx), gives us  a SELL signal. We lost a bit on the BUY-SELL trade, 1%, which brings our net for the year to +10.7% (see Results_History). The change in S&P 500 since 12/31/02 is +8.5%, so we are somewhat ahead of the S&P. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The Market State page has been updated for the SELL.

There is a saying that the market goes the "wrong way" on holiday days. So from that we should expect an up market on Monday, which would be a better time frame to SELL something. But we must not ignore a SELL signal in the System and go with a gut feeling (to not SELL today) or any other non-System data. The System does not produce a profit 100% of the time, but over time, has proven itself again and again to win handsomely. See Summary_Table2 for our 17.6% average return per year over the most recent nine year period.

Short Sellers paragraph: Since the Short State is Dirty we may not actually sell short today, but we must do a notional (on paper only) short sale, in order to keep track of the short state flag. If the notional short sale shows a profit, then the short state will change to Clean and we may then sell short the next SELL signal, provided that we have not risen in Market State to Run-5 by that time. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors page: End-of-week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). For the next two weeks, the S&P500 may decline modestly without jeopardizing the BULL market. (After two weeks the market needs to stay above 940 to stay in the clear-more details to come.) If we get a major decline, we will give more details. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-2-03 Dear Reader: A nice advance, the S&P500 closed up 11 to 994.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +904 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +46 to +274. We dropped a -238 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias for today. We will have a negative bias Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. Since we are now above the upper threshold of +20 (approx) in 5DMA, we could get a SELL signal anytime. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Short Sellers paragraph: On 6/23/03 we fell to Oscillatory state from Run-5 state. That change allows us to sell short on the next SELL signal, if we like, provided the Short State is Clean and the SELL signal comes with a decline of at least four points in S&P500. The Market State page has the Short State as Dirty (meaning we can not sell short) because the last State change from Oscillatory to Run-5 on 5/2/03 was because of a busted notional (paper trade only) short sale (which event changes the short state to Dirty). The Short State will change to Clean when we observe a notional short sale that closes without being busted. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

7-1-03 Dear Reader: After being down most of the day, the S&P500 closed up 8 to 982, giving us a minor bottom reversal and a sterile BUY signal (more in next paragraph). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. A bottom reversal is a decline in S&P500 to a new recent minor low, with an up close. This chart pattern is not explicitly a part of the Field System, but we note such things when we see them; this term is not in the Glossary.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +370 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -6 to +46. We dropped a +110 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias for today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. The upturn in the S&P500 after yesterday's ARM signal, gives us a FIRE signal, for a BUY today; the third BUY signal in a row. The signal is sterile though, since the System is fully invested from the BUY signal on 6/20/03. If you happen to use margin, but only on special occasions, then you could BUY with 25% of your available margin, as we do when the Long-Purchase State is Dirty (you may have bought with 50% of available margin on 6/26/03 on the second BUY signal, so this is 25% more). We don't include sterile signals on the Market State page. Since we are now above the upper threshold of +20 (approx) in 5DMA, we could get a SELL signal anytime. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.