3-15-04 Dear Reader: The S&P declined today, down 16 to 1104. We violated the bogey (recent minor low after which a BUY signal was given) set Thursday, 3/11/04. This changes the Market State from Run-5 to Oscillatory, and changes the threshold levels at which we see buy and sell signals.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -1181 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -602 to -740. We dropped a -494 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. Market State page has been updated for Oscillatory. No signals today.

3-12-04 Dear Reader: The S&P almost made up for yesterday's decline, up by +13.7 to 1121. BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +1023 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -751 to -602. We dropped a +281 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Monday-Thursday due to dropping negative numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought equal amounts of SPY, QQQ, and IWM, investing 100% of available stock allocation (actually these orders were entered on the opening on Monday 3/15, since we had communication difficulties associated with our move on Friday). Please see ETF page for explanation of these symbols and Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (more than 12 weeks) of clear sailing in this BULL market; the minor danger point is at approximately 1050 on S&P500, the major danger point is at S&P=988 (these data will change week-by-week, stay tuned). No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +24.7% (+31.5% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-11-04 Dear Reader: The S&P was down hard by -17.1 to 1106.8.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was an astounding -1358 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -408 to -751. We dropped a +357 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Friday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today. We are now heavily over-sold, being below -400 on 5DMA and in buying range, being below -5 on 5DMA. A simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA tomorrow will give a short-term BUY signal. The chart of the S&P broke another previous minor low, of 1128.5, set on 1/28/04. This action lends additional weight to the idea that we are in an intermediate term correction, starting from 2/4/04 when the State changed from Run-5 to Oscillatory. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-10-04 Dear Reader: Well it was a bad day for the bulls. The S&P500 closed down hard by 17 to 1124. If you follow our short-term signals, you are out of the market and glad of it. (Long-termers sit tight.) We may be very late posting Thursday and Friday's columns since I am moving and my ISP cannot reconnect me in less than 4 days. Hopefully I will be up Monday.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -1247 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -161 to -408. We dropped a -13 from the average from six days ago, giving us a neutral bias today. We will have a negative bias Thursday-Friday due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today. We are now over-sold, being below -400 on 5DMA and in buying range, being below -5 on 5DMA. A simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA tomorrow will give a short-term BUY signal. The chart of the S&P is trending down, since we broke below the last buy-bogey, set at 1139.1 on 2/24/04. This action lends additional weight to the idea that we are in an intermediate term correction, starting from 2/4/04 when the State changed from Run-5 to Oscillatory. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

3-9-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down another 7 to 1141. If you follow our short-term signals, you are out of the market and glad of it. (Long-termers sit tight.)

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -936 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -54 to -161. We dropped a -398 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today. We are now in buying range, being below -5 on 5DMA. A simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA tomorrow will give a short-term BUY signal.

3-8-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 10 to 1147. Good to be out of the market (last sell signal was 3/2/04) on days like this (for short-term oriented customers only, long-termers are OK).

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -494 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +228 to -54. We dropped a +916 from the average from six days ago, giving us a large negative bias today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. No signals today. We are now in buying range, being below -5 on 5DMA. A simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA tomorrow will give a short-term BUY signal.

We are adding today something that has nothing to do with the stock market, but may be of interest. We've added a link to a page called "Field-Fermi Method of Estimating Relative Speed of Two Autos". If you want to know how to easily estimate the speed of a car passing you, click on the link, Relative_Speed. The link is also added to the link list at the bottom of this page.

3-5-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 2 to 1157.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +281 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +231 to +228. We dropped a +291 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias Monday due to dropping a positive number from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact (we have stopped updating weekly the Long-Term Investors page, Table 3, but will resume same if a crisis approaches). Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows clearly we are well above the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. Barring a major decline, we should have several months (more than 12 weeks) of clear sailing in this BULL market. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets. The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +28.7% (+35.7% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.  

3-4-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 4 to 1155.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +357 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +243 to +231. We dropped a +420 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias the next two days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

3-3-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed up 2 to 1151.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -13 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +359 to +243. We dropped a +566 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias today. We will have a negative bias the next three days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. No signals today.

3-2-04 Dear Reader: The S&P500 closed down 7 to 1149. The last hour the market and 5DMA (see next paragraph) teetered between a sell signal and no signal, finally resolving into a Short-term SELL signal.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a -398 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV finally settled by falling from +388 to +359. We dropped a -251 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a negative bias the next four days due to dropping positive numbers from the average from six days prior. The simultaneous downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a Short-term SELL signal. The gain on this round trip was +0.5%, bringing our net loss for 2004 to -0.1%. The Results_Hist_99_03 and Market State pages have been updated.  Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

As a practical matter, when this teetering happens, and we can't sell all positions in multiple accounts in the last couple minutes of trading, what I do is starting about 3:30EST, I sell one position if it looks like a sell signal is coming, and every five minutes thereafter I continue this process, stopping if the market looks like it wont give a SELL signal. The inability to get the closing price of the index ETF's we trade is part of the Slippage I define in the Glossary section.

3-1-04 Dear Reader: In a nice rally, the S&P500 closed up 11 to 1156. Makes that BUY signal of  2/25/04 look good.

 The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was a +916 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +104 to +388. We dropped a -506 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias today. We will have a positive bias Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the average from six days prior. We are now in sell territory since we are above +2.5 on 5DMA, and we are approaching over-bought (>+400 on 5DMA). No signals today.