9-30-04 Dear Reader:  After being lower during the day, the S&P500 finally fell less than a point to 1114.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +390 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -21 to +137. We dropped a -400 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now above the 5DMA upper threshold of +19 for a sell signal, so any simultaneous decline in S&P and 5DMA will give a Short-term sell signal. No signals today. The end of month summary will come tomorrow using today's close for the month of September. We are very close to a BEAR market signal; if the market does not move higher in the next two weeks, it will come. You can see this on our Long-term System page, where we have a weekly and monthly 40 week (200DMA) MA. In the weekly Table 4, counting back the 41st week ago (from tomorrow), the S&P closed at 1088.7 (no problem this week). The 40th week ago the S&P closed at 1095.9 (no problem next week), the 39th week ago, the S&P closed at 1121.9---this is a problem. If the S&P closes lower than 1121.9 on 10/15/04, a BEAR market will be declared by our Long-term System. And we are lower than 1121.9 now, so this is the time to watch this space regularly.

9-29-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 advanced 5 to 1115. BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +285 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -267 to -21. We dropped a -946 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The simultaneous upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. Since we are still in Intermediate Down Trend, the Long-Purchase State is Dirty, meaning we BUY with no more than 50% of available funds for equities. We purchased equal dollar amounts of QQQ and SPY. Please see ETF page for meaning of these symbols, and please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms. The Market State Page has been updated for the BUY.

9-28-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 advanced 7 to 1110.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +541 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -251 to -267. We dropped a +619 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. It looked like a BUY signal with the S&P up nicely, but the 5DMA did not confirm the behavior and give us the upturn for a signal. No signals today.

9-27-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 declined 7 to 1104.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -639 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -176 to -251. We dropped a -255 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower 5DMA threshold of -28 and could get a BUY signal if both S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today.

9-24-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 advanced by 3 to 1110.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +102 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from -136 to -176. We dropped a +301 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower 5DMA threshold of -28 and could get a BUY signal if both S&P and 5DMA turn up. The upturn today in S&P gives no signal. If the 5DMA turns up but not the S&P, we get an ARM command (first half of ARM & FIRE), but if S&P turns first we get nothing. No signals today. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact. The Long-Term Investors page, Table 4, is updated weekly and that table shows we are still above the 40 week MA line. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows we are still below the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are STILL advancing. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA (40WMA) line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets (see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +23.5% (+25.9% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ  Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

9-23-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 declined by 5 to 1108.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -400 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +19 to -136. We dropped a +375 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are now below the lower 5DMA threshold of -28 and could get a BUY signal if both S&P and 5DMA turn up. No signals today.

9-22-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 fell hard by 16 to 1114. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -946 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +94 to +19. We dropped a -570 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives us a Short-term SELL signal. While we are not happy that we have to sell at a loss the day after a buy signal, the Long-Purchase State being Dirty means we lost only 50% of what we otherwise would have lost. It also re-affirms the value of the Volatility index (VIX) in helping to signal when an Intermediate Down Trend has ended; it has not yet ended (see yesterday's column). We sold the SPY and QQQ purchased on 9/21/04. The round trip net loss on these trades was -0.7%, bringing our net for the year to +1.2%, versus a +0.2% for the S&P500. The violation of the bogey of 1122.2 set on 9/20/04, drops the Market State from Run-5 to Oscillatory, which affects the thresholds at which signals occur. The Market State Page and Results_History_04- page have been updated for today's action. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

9-21-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 rose 7 to 1129. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +619 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from -17 to +94. We dropped a +66 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the 5DMA was below the lower threshold of -5, gives us a Short-term BUY signal. We are in Long-Purchase State of Dirty, so we scale-in purchases by: 1st BUY 50%, 2nd BUY, 25%, etc. This is the first BUY in this sequence, so we commit 50% of available funds for equities.We purchased equal amounts of SPY and QQQ (please see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). We have stopped buying IWM, as the small cap market has acted poorly lately. The Market State Page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

We checked the possibility that the series of five rising bottoms and six rising tops in the S&P500 in recent weeks would cancel the Intermediate Down Trend (IDT). The problem arose with the volatility index (VIX) of the options contracts on the Chicago Board Options Exchange; it is near a recent low, indicating that we are near a short-term high in the market rather than a low. Consequently we are not cancelling the IDT signal.

9-20-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 dropped 6 to 1122.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -255 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +103 to -17. We dropped a +343 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We did get a sterile Short-term sell signal today, since the S&P and 5DMA both turned down while the 5DMA was above its upper threshold of +2.5; sterile because the System has no positions on. We do not record sterile signals on the Market State page. We are now in the buying range, as we are below the -5 5DMA value, which is the lower threshold for a buy. When the S&P and 5DMA both turn up, that will be a buy signal.

9-17-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 advanced by 5 to 1129.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +301 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +157 to +103. We dropped a +578 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact. The Long-Term Investors page, Table 4, is updated weekly and that table shows we are still above the 40 week MA line. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows we are still below the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are STILL advancing. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA (40WMA) line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets (see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +25.6% (+29.4% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ  Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

9-16-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 advanced by 3 to 1124.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +375 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +150 to +157. We dropped a +334 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. This was not a buy signal since we were not below the threshold of -5 in 5DMA when today's upturn took place.

9-15-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P500 declined by 8 to 1120.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -570 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +187 to +150. We dropped a -387 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today's decline in S&P was a FIRE signal, the second half of an ARM & FIRE Short-Term SELL signal, but the sell signal is sterile since we had no System positions on. We do not record sterile signals on the Market State page. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

9-14-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P made another modest advance of 3 to 1128.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +66 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +289 to +187. We dropped a +578 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Today we get an ARM signal, since the 5DMA declined but the S&P did not. A decline in S&P tomorrow will complete a Short-term SELL signal, but it is sterile since we have no positions on. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

9-13-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P advanced 2 to 1126.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +343 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +190 to +289. We dropped a -156 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today, we were not below the lower threshold for a buy (5DMA <-5)  when S&P and 5DMA turned up.

9-10-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P advanced 6 to 1124.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +578 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +227 to +190. We dropped a +765 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.

Long-Term Investors End of Week update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact. The Long-Term Investors page, Table 4, is updated weekly and that table shows we are now above the 40 week MA line. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page is updated monthly, and that  table shows we are still below the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are STILL advancing. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA (40WMA) line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets (see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +25.0% (+28.6% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ  Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

 The chart of S&P is also showing rising tops and rising bottoms, indicating that we may be ending the Intermediate Down Trend begun 5/10/04. And that BEAR market we were approaching has faded for now.

9-9-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P advanced 2 to 1118.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +334 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +220 to +227. We dropped a +302 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.

9-8-04 Dear Reader:  The S&P declined by 5 to 1116.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -387 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV declined from +378 to +220. We dropped a +399 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.

I missed an advance in Market State from Oscillatory to Run-5 on 9/2/04, when the S&P exceeded the bogey of 1107.8 set on 8/27/04. The State changes the thresholds at which signals are given. The Market State page and the column for 9/2/04 have been changed to reflect this.

9-7-04 Dear Reader:  After the Labor Day holiday, the S&P moved smartly ahead by 8 to 1121.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +578 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +160 to +378. We dropped a -513 from the average from six days ago, giving us a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.

9-3-04 Dear Reader:  Today the S&P slipped by 5 to 1114.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was -156 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV fell from +247 to +160. We dropped a +284 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today, it was a sterile SELL signal since we didnt have any positions on.

Long-Term Investors End of Week/End of Month update. The 200DMA (40 week moving average-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues to advance and the BULL market is still intact. The Long-Term Investors page, Table 4, is updated weekly and that table shows we are now very near the 40 week MA line. Table 2 of the Long-Term System page has been updated, and that  table shows we are still below the nine month (appx 200 DMA) MA line. The important point is that the 40 week and 9 month MA lines are STILL advancing. To get a BEAR market signal (Long-term System) we need BOTH to be below the 200DMA (40WMA) line and for the 200DMA line to turn DOWN. No change in positions; we are 100% long in SPY and QQQ for the equity allocation of total assets (see ETF page for explanation of these symbols). The change in our position (based on S&P500) since the BULL market declaration on 4/25/03 is +23.9% (+26.2% using 50% S&P and 50% NASDAQ  Composite). Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

 The chart of S&P is also showing rising tops and rising bottoms, indicating that we may be ending the Intermediate Down Trend begun 5/10/04. And that BEAR market we were approaching has faded for now.

9-2-04 Dear Reader:  Today the S&P boomed ahead by 12 to 1118.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +765 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +116 to +247. We dropped a +106 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today, but we advanced in Market State from Oscillatory to Run-5 since the S&P exceeded the bogey of 1107.8 set on 8/27/04. Please see Glossary for any unfamiliar terms.

If this level on S&P is maintained on Friday, then we will once again be above the 40 week (200 day) moving average. The chart of S&P is also showing rising tops and rising bottoms, indicating that we may be ending the Intermediate Down Trend begun 5/10/04. And that BEAR market we were approaching has faded for now.

9-1-04 Dear Reader:  Today the S&P closed up 2 to 1106.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today was +302 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of  the OBV rose from +98 to +116. We dropped a +214 from the average from six days ago, giving us a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.