If you are the kind of person who considers       him/herself an investor and not a speculator,       and who would prefer to make market       BUY/SELL       decisions years apart, rather than       days apart,       then this page is for you.

The Field System has long-term signals for       buy-and-hold investors. They are simply:       BUY on the declaration of a BULL market and       SELL on declaration of a BEAR market. The       last declaration of a BULL market was 12/16/94       (S&P500 close 458.8)(of course we were       not on-line then!) and the last declaration       of a BEAR market was 9/21/2000 (S&P500       close 1448.7) (see Table 1 below). If you had bought with 100% of your       funds on the first date and sold all on the       second date you would have a return of about       215.8% (using the S&P500 index value       as a "price" on those dates). That       sounds like a large increase, but over a       5.75 yr period, that is 22.1% per year, compounded       (see note 2 for sample calculation). The table contains       a three-month mis-call (8/94 to 11/94) which       just shows that not every rule is 100% perfect.       The time-weighted ("blended") average       of all signals in the table is 17.5% average       gain per year for the time the investor is       in the market. The result of buying and holding       over the period 8/27/82 to 1/27/03 (20 yr       5 mo) is 10.3% gain per year. Buying and       holding over shorter periods of 15 yr, 5       mo, 10yr 5 mo, and 5 yr 5 mo are even worse.       These figures are 6%, 2% and -1.4%, respectively       (see Table 1 below).

      Isn’t this simple? Look at the price       you       pay for buying and NEVER selling! If       you       have done that, you already know the       painful       cost, you don’t need me to tell you.       See       what a great deal of loss you could       avoid       with this simple SELL rule. The loss       in S&P500       since the BEAR market signal is 42%       (written       9/27/02). If you sold on 9/22/00, your       loss       from that date would be zero, the date       of       the last BEAR market declaration.

      (written 12/30/02) The next declaration of       a BULL market will come when the 200 day moving average (200DMA) of the S&P500 stops going down       and turns up, while simultaneously the S&P500       is above the 200DMA moving average line.       I believe we will get a BULL market signal       before April, 2003. The 200DMA line will       turn up when current prices are above those       from 200 days ago. Since we had a major market       low in July and a test of that low in Oct       2002, I expect the upturn to occur before       200 days from July, 2002, or in April, 2003.       The only reason this will FAIL to occur is       if we plunge below the Friday-closing S&P500       value on 7/19/2002 (847.8), the "July       bottom" (Friday-close basis). The last       BULL market signal occurred 12/16/1994, so       this is not something that happens every       day! In the Field long-term system you may       BUY with 100% of your funds on the BULL signal       and hold until the next BEAR market signal       (hopefully years after that) occurs. We prefer       to buy exchange-traded funds such as SPY       and QQQ rather than individual stocks, since       these are not subject to the turmoil caused       by news on an individual stock (trademark       notices below).

      (revised 5/30/03) We have added a Table 2: Nine Month Moving Average of the S&P500       so that you can see the progress, or lack       of same, toward the next BULL signal. Two       hundred business days is 40 weeks, and nine       months is about 40 weeks. The first column       is month end date. The second is S&P500       average on month end date. The third column       is the nine month moving average (MA) of       the most recent nine month's closing prices       of the S&P500. When the numbers in the       third column stop decreasing month after       month and finally rise, and when the S&P500       is above that average number, a new BULL       market will be declared (but we will use       weekly rather than monthly data to make the       call-see next). As seen in Table 2, the average       turned up 4/30/03, consonent with our declaration       of a new BULL marlet on 4/25/03, as determined       by the weekly data.
      The weekly data are now becoming more important       than the monthly. There is in the weekly       data (Table 3), an 847.8 on 7/19/02 that has now been       exceeded. We use the Friday closing values       of the S&P 500 for this study. Counting       40 weeks from 7/19/02 ("the July bottom"       of a previous paragraph), we see that since       the S&P500 is above 847.8 on 4/25/03,       then the 200DMA has turned up. The average       of the last 40 weeks is about 880. The S&P       is above 880 on 4/25/03 (Table 3), so a new BULL market can NOW BE DECLARED!
      (written 5/30/03) We have now gotten past       the mini-critical date of 5/30/03, when the       S&P500 needed to be above 941, and it       was. The next seven weeks is a minor caution,       in that, if we have a major decline, the       BULL market could be in jeopardy. I will       provide more details if we get a decline       that comes close to trouble.

      If you are a student of this method,       I want       to make very clear that we are talking       about       the 200 BUSINESS day moving average       (40 weeks)       and not the 200 CALENDAR day average.       Our       work over the decades has shown the       40 week       average gives the best signals (fewer       mis-calls),       not the 29 week CALENDAR average! Often       commentators       do not make clear which they are talking       about.

      We did not invent the idea for this Long-term       System, but I do not remember where I first       saw it, decades ago. It may have been the       old Dick Fabian "Telephone Switch Newsletter",       now published as Maverick Advisor. I believe       the S&P company also used a similar system       to flag the market as BULL or BEAR on their       "Daily Basis Stock Charts"; I am       not sure whether these charts are still being       published or not. And it may have been Joseph       E. Granville's 1960 book "A Strategy       of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum       Profit", which had more than just Daily       methods. Since the initial idea from years       ago, we are responsible for all the declarations       and calculations since.

Table 3: Weekly 40 Week Moving Average of S&P         500